Transcription (partial) of Slot Machine Q&A friom Cantina

[RahaylaCora]

I also like his signature but probably for a different reason.

 

As far as what Eric said, it fits with what I thought myself. I do not share the OPs distrust of the information or that something is untrue. He has no proof of that either.

 

But what did happen here is that Eric showed that BW has no chess players in their team who can think ahead. It had to go wrong, people had to complain and then they had to investigate it to come to the conclusion that the players were totally right that it was out of control. And this is the real problem, they should've seen that before they brought it out and apparently they didn't. Honestly, it's like lowering he oil prices and being surprised that people have to pay less at the petrol station for their fuel. It's not rocket science. This was glaringly obvious and by his own words they didn't see this completely and utterly obvious point before releasing it into the game.

 

That level of shortsightedness is baffling.

As I posted in another thread, i think they put unintentionally a testing Slot Machine, with high chances of prizes to study and "do the analytics" about balanced drops. Once they realized the big mistake, they can't come and say "oh, we don't take too much care lately about our product, we are overwhelmed because our work" so they hid the truth speaking of a "coming adjustment", but with the idea of setting off the Slot Machine. And they still use poetry to hide that the actual Slot Machine was never intended but they had to do this (if original Slot Machine never had a mount, why adding it later? Bait for softening reactions about the new and not planned change).

 

I am sure they were aware of the impact of the Slot Machine in the game, with the selected items as prizes. And I don't believe that people working on Bioware is stupid. They can't be. A game of this kind is top engineering. Just a terrible mistake adding a testing code changed it all. But we will never know the truth.

[Tsillah]

As I posted in another thread, i think they put unintentionally a testing Slot Machine, with high chances of prizes to study and "do the analytics" about balanced drops. Once they realized the big mistake, they can't come and say "oh, we don't take too much care lately about our product, we are overwhelmed because our work" so they hid the truth speaking of a "coming adjustment", but with the idea of setting off the Slot Machine. And they still use poetry to hide that the actual Slot Machine was never intended but they had to do this (if original Slot Machine never had a mount, why adding it later? Bait for softening reactions about the new and not planned change).

 

I am sure they were aware of the impact of the Slot Machine in the game, with the selected items as prizes. And I don't believe that people working on Bioware is stupid. They can't be. A game of this kind is top engineering. Just a terrible mistake adding a testing code changed it all. But we will never know the truth.

 

Well it was a stupid thing to do even if your version of the story were true...that is also a stupid way to do it. I have no problem believing people can be that stupid. It just irritates me when it could've been so easily avoided.

 

Surely it would be better to start with low win chances. See if people play it and then if it's not enough bring out the next slot machine with somewhat bigger win chances. Then you won't have to come with a big nerf hammer but then you can be the awesome guy who increases rewards. Honestly, I don't see how you can think that this would be rocket science to figure out? It simply was a dumb idea the way they did it and they should've know that themselves.

[GuruVII]

At this point, I have to ask... what is win rate?

Because the way you speak of it gives me the feeling it isn't the definition I know.

 

Because to me win rate is wins / total attempts and with what you are saying the win rate on cartel slot machines is 55%, since 55% of the time the cartel slot machines gives you something in return.

While the Reno machines in the most recent link must have a win rate (the definition I used) bellow 50%, since that is the only way for the house to make money (since the minimum prize is doubling a coin).

On the other hand, the coin return mucks up the math, since you may buy 1000 coins, but 20% of them got returned, so you in fact had 1200 attempts, while you probably counted only 1000.

Edited January 25, 2015 by GuruVII

[Draqsko]

Sure but the basic principle is that the return has to be lower than the input on average and the win chance has to be enough to keep people interested.

 

The actual return of the machine was always lower than even Vegas slots worst return rate of 88%. It was at best estimate 70%, the problem is the items that returned on top of the cash, certs and mats. The "value" of those push it to where people could show a greater than 100% return. However, what they neglect to consider is market forces.

 

The actual value of those mats and certs would have depreciated over time until eventually their value would exactly equal a 100% (one would assume the mats would list for cost plus 6% at the lowest, and no one would list for under that). Eventually you would have gotten no return on your credits spent if you decided to turn all certs and mats into credits. Bioware would have sunk 30% of your credits initially, and another 6% of the sales you made, which works out to 31.8% of the credits you originally spent into the machine.

 

So the reality is, Bioware's "take" is 31.8% in the long term, and much higher in the short term as long as GTN mat prices remain higher than 106% of the cost to obtain them on the slot machine.

[RahaylaCora]

Maybe I explained wrong. Testing machine for their internal use, not for the players to test it. That code had to be changed before adding it to the game.

[Tsillah]

The actual return of the machine was always lower than even Vegas slots worst return rate of 88%. It was at best estimate 70%, the problem is the items that returned on top of the cash, certs and mats. The "value" of those push it to where people could show a greater than 100% return. However, what they neglect to consider is market forces.

 

The actual value of those mats and certs would have depreciated over time until eventually their value would exactly equal a 100% (one would assume the mats would list for cost plus 6% at the lowest, and no one would list for under that). Eventually you would have gotten no return on your credits spent if you decided to turn all certs and mats into credits. Bioware would have sunk 30% of your credits initially, and another 6% of the sales you made, which works out to 31.8% of the credits you originally spent into the machine.

 

So the reality is, Bioware's "take" is 31.8% in the long term, and much higher in the short term as long as GTN mat prices remain higher than 106% of the cost to obtain them on the slot machine.

 

I make distinction between win rate and returns. Win rate is how often you win as compared to the amount of times you play the machine.

 

Return is the value of what you win compared to how much you put in.

 

The game economy also is different than a real economy of course because credits you put into a slot machine are taken out of the economy. However it introduced materials at a too reliable rate and frequence so that it was cheaper and much faster than crew missions.

 

This then devaluates crew skill missions but because it's so fast it can also be more interesting than going out and gathering, especially for lower level mats. It completely makes those two elements obsolete.

 

Not to mention that it could make it so that conquests are won from people's stronghold because of the value of crafting in conquest.

 

What I am simply saying is that they should have looked into slot machines and how they work more and what the dangers are of giving rewards that affect various other parts of the game and also the economy of the GTN.

 

I am not so worried about inflation. If anything the slot machines take credits out of the game but for a credit sink to be successful it's a bit silly to make another credit sink obsolete with it that had a much higher cost. So following your own idea of stabilisation over time, essentially BW would've replaced a credit sink with a less successful credit sink and negatively affected various other elements of gameplay and making it more interesting even for people to sit in their Stronghold all day making new/other players wonder why the servers are so empty...

 

Surely that's not good for the game either? Crew skill missions allow you to do content at the same time. Gathering on planets puts you on those planets. It's also about population. If everybody just hides in their stronghold that wouldn't be great for an MMO. That's why I think they upped gathering nodes on yavin 4 so people have another reason to hang out there.

 

To me it just seems logical that if you introduce something new that has links to various other elements of gameplay which materials do, to start low on the rewards rather than high and the nerfing it and pissing people off.

[Draqsko]

Maybe I explained wrong. Testing machine for their internal use, not for the players to test it. That code had to be changed before adding it to the game.

 

I don't think it was testing machine. I think the math I showed that those percentages were right on the money for what they planned.

 

Think about it, bolster includes augments now, they've balanced content around having augments in place. Augments are one thing you can't get any other way but via crafting. The fact that the maximum rate of production of Adaptive Circuitry and 1 account with 22 alts being nearly identical isn't a coincidence. In every other place that involves jawa scrap, there's a sliding scale reward from green being most numerous, to purple being least, except the slot machine. If you're going to test it, you're going to test on the same sliding scale even if the reward was higher. Also testing doesn't involve pushing the slot machine or even having the computer push it virtually. Testing is running a statistical analysis like everyone spitting numbers on the forum.

 

I think they put that thought into the numbers, looked at their metrics for crew missions, seen that crew missions were run for mats X number of times and people would use the machine for mats the same number of times. What happened was, a new novelty in game, combined with hype and too low cost on the tokens so the mats obtained from the machine were flat out cheaper than crew missions, resulted in people using the machine X^100 number of times for mats and that threw the whole system out of whack.

 

TL;DR - The actual win rates weren't bad, the problem was the token cost was too low relative to crew missions, and the sheer amount of times you could use the machine exascerbated it. The fix would have been to just adjust the token cost to make crew missions much more profitable to run. The problem, and i think BW knows this now, is that crew missions suck and as long as the cost was under the GTN price they would use the machine. If it was over the GTN price, they would buy the mats off the GTN. So if they left it as it was, yes it would have killed crew missions, but not because of the machine itself... because crew missions suck so much you'd pay even 9 times the cost to avoid running them. I mean really, by that definition, the GTN is also killing crew skills.

[EnkiduNineEight]

I think it was nerfed overhard but I expect that wont change, I might still keep trying to capture their attention on it. Who knows.

 

But the goof on the rate of drops for the new walker is ludicrous.

 

Eric,when I suggested .001 I was indicating One in ONE THOUSAND. Not .001% which is One in ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND.

 

There is absolutely no reason at all to use that slot machine at this point for anyone once they max rep. It is completely useless.

[eartharioch]

well looks like the texus bioware branck is the Z team of the bioware studios and yes i know that theres only 3 studios but calling them the c team is an insult to third place finishers everywhere.

 

Gentleman's D

[LordArtemis]

Well, i don't see this thing as a slot machine, any more than any other RNG mechanic in the game. It is just another RNG mechanic....but it has a very low time requirement to get a result.

[Tsillah]

Well, i don't see this thing as a slot machine, any more than any other RNG mechanic in the game. It is just another RNG mechanic....but it has a very low time requirement to get a result.

 

And that right there is one of the biggest issues right there esepcially when you give rewards that are tradeable/sellable. If they'd stuck to rep items and a few more things like unique mounts or even armour skins or whatever...basically collectable stuff that is bop/bol then this would've never blown up like this.

[LordArtemis]

And that right there is one of the biggest issues right there esepcially when you give rewards that are tradeable/sellable. If they'd stuck to rep items and a few more things like unique mounts or even armour skins or whatever...basically collectable stuff that is bop/bol then this would've never blown up like this.

 

Yes, absolutely.

 

The biggest mistake was releasing it with a drop for mats. That was a HUGE blunder IMO, only compounded by nerfing it out of existence.

 

It was a lazy way to provide more mats, which they have already done with packs and conquest, instead of going the smart route and simply improve gathering and crew missions.

 

Instead they give us mats outside the games normal gathering mechanics. It was bound to cause problems at some point.

 

What is next....every time I mount my speeder i have a chance to get a mat drop?

[Tsillah]

What is next....every time I mount my speeder i have a chance to get a mat drop?

 

But only when you get that new legacy unlock that's coming where you can mount while moving

[LordArtemis]

But only when you get that new legacy unlock that's coming where you can mount while moving

 

They should just remove gathering and crew missions as mat sources and have mats shoot out of my rifle instead of laser bolts.

 

I bet they would hurt when they hit the enemy.

[Tsillah]

They should just remove gathering and crew missions as mat sources and have mats shoot out of my rifle instead of laser bolts.

 

I bet they would hurt when they hit the enemy.

 

Well, make it more insteresting. Instead of mats shooting out of your guns, let them use mats for ammo, so you have to actually work for your ammo. So everytime you shoot, a random piece of material disappears and then you can go to your slot machine to win ammo back again.

 

And for force users you will need to create powerpacks to power your lightsabres with limited uses. Out of mats? Hit the slot machines!

 

(I hope people reading this understand I'm being sarcastic)

[SelinaH]

The biggest mistake was releasing it with a drop for mats. That was a HUGE blunder IMO, only compounded by nerfing it out of existence.

I didn't have a problem with them putting scraps in the reward table; more options is typically a good thing. But the drop rate absolutely needed to be balanced against crew missions, so that both would be comparable (note: comparable =/= equal) and viable options for mat acquisition. Which you chose to engage in would then depend primarily on your own personal preference and time/cost constraints.

 

But that's not what happened.

 

And then they made it worse.

But what did happen here is that Eric showed that BW has no chess players in their team who can think ahead. It had to go wrong, people had to complain and then they had to investigate it to come to the conclusion that the players were totally right that it was out of control. And this is the real problem, they should've seen that before they brought it out and apparently they didn't.

This is what worries me: their seeming inability to predict the consequences of their actions, and the way they react (or don't) to both the in-game and PR issues that inevitably follow.

[branmakmuffin]

Well, make it more insteresting. Instead of mats shooting out of your guns, let them use mats for ammo, so you have to actually work for your ammo. So everytime you shoot, a random piece of material disappears and then you can go to your slot machine to win ammo back again.

 

And for force users you will need to create powerpacks to power your lightsabres with limited uses. Out of mats? Hit the slot machines!

 

(I hope people reading this understand I'm being sarcastic)

It doesn't really work well when you point it out.

[Tsillah]

This is what worries me: their seeming inability to predict the consequences of their actions, and the way they react (or don't) to both the in-game and PR issues that inevitably follow.

 

And I do want to make a distinction on that. In life you cannot always predict what is going to happen so mistakes will be made.

 

My concern is the type of mistakes that are being made. The type that could've easily been avoided if someone with some common sense and basic math skills should easily have been able to figure out.

 

Now I know how companies work, I've worked long enough to have an idea about budgets and politics with a company, so in that sense I am not entirely surprised, but it is such a shame. Really it is. I honestly feel SWTOR deserves a lot more positive feedback, but it's so hard when they can be so careless at moments. People will make mistakes, that's ok, but in the history of this game so far there have been some monumental errors of judgment that in my view were completely unnecessary.

[Tsillah]

It doesn't really work well when you point it out.

 

That's ok, I didn't want it to further devolve so that people suddenly thought we were being serious and made the discussion go completely off course and then get blamed for it

Edited January 25, 2015 by Tsillah

[Heat-Wave]

There is absolutely no reason at all to use that slot machine at this point for anyone once they max rep. It is completely useless.

 

^ This is the simple truth...

 

While losing in the long run is one thing, there needs to be some reason to keep playing. That is why the machines in Vegas pay larger prizes, to provide that incentive.

 

It really is simple, give back 95% of what is put in, keep 5% in as a credit sink for the house. Have lots of little prizes with a decent enough drop rate to keep it interesting, then have prizes of higher value. The mount can be super rare, but other items could be less rare, such as a deco for the stronghold. All prizes need to be BoE so they can be sold on the GTN. That is what makes this work.

[Nitblade]

At this point, I feel it's entirely possible that they don't even realize just how badly they borked the drop rate on everything.

 

It's sad that I can envision this scenario as even remotely feasible. Sigh.

 

Considering it took them 6 weeks to notice how badly broken and borked that last expansion was and let us Pay to Beta test their stuff on barely functioning servers.

 

But sadly, THEM not Realizing how badly they do is a very growing trend.

[ivanhedgehog]

Nonsense. It wasn't so much the crafters complaining, it was the ones who run crew mission skills (gatherers) primarily as a source of in-game income. Short and simple of it.

 

Most crafters I've spoken to had little issue with it, as we use the materials for crafting. The point being most of the crafters simply gained a CSM and gathered grade 11 materials that way to be on an even footing cost wise. Equally new crafters entered the market as they could afford to craft.

 

Kind of shows how much the CSM imbalanced the market for the gatherers using crew missions to gain grade 11 mats (you know the ones.... with 10+ slicers etc).

 

the people that complained about the jawa junk are basicly gold farmers.

[ivanhedgehog]

Well....I am not sure I agree with the overall idea that it was harmless. I think over the LONG term....long term mind you...oversupply would have been bad for everyone, certainly more so for some than others.

 

The solution is to increase returns and crit rates on crew missions. That would likely make crafters AND the "barons" happy.

 

The solution for this machine (my opinion only) is to keep all the current numbers in place EXCEPT...

Cert rate should be 2%

The remaining percentage rolled into loss should be rolled into token drop chance, which is harmless IMO.

 

But most importantly, IMO, crew missions desperately need improvement.

 

if there are too many midlithe crystals? ":oh noes, I will have to wait a few days if I want to sell these! or i could craft something my self with them!"

 

not a problem of galactic importance

[PhlebiacMendax]

If they're gonna admit they made a huge mistake; how about a refund for that huge mistake? You know, since it was their mistake and not ours?

[Frybert]

If they're gonna admit they made a huge mistake; how about a refund for that huge mistake? You know, since it was their mistake and not ours?

No, it was your mistake for trusting BW enough to give them your money.