Concern for the future

[kimdante]

Though it should be noted that a large number of players do appear to be preoccupied with finding "the one". Many are even zealots about it.. rallying around what they perceive as "the one" to "slay all others". .

 

Agreed. Or another behavior is to attempt to re-create the love, wonder, and amazement we felt whilst playing our first MMO. Such was the case for me as I bounced from one game to the next. I was frantically trying to recreate the awe I felt the first time I played WOW (which was my first). Even now in my gaming experience nothing has compared to the first time I ran into Stormwind city. Like an addict "chasing the dragon" we try to recreate that amazing initial high and fail.

 

We to try to recreate this feeling, such as in life we go through lovers attempting to "feel" what we felt when we first fell in love with that person we consider to be "the one."

 

Luckily SWTOR is a different animal altogether and such as in RL relationships, we eventually learn to love someone new for their uniqueness - for the special qualities they bring to the table, and stop trying to replace that person we lost.

Edited February 2, 2014 by kimdante

[Rafaman]

Agreed. Or another behavior is to attempt to re-create the love, wonder, and amazement we felt whilst playing our first MMO. Such was the case for me as I bounced from one game to the next. I was frantically trying to recreate the awe I felt the first time I played WOW (which was my first). Even now in my gaming experience nothing has compared to the first time I ran into Stormwind city. Like an addict "chasing the dragon" we try to recreate that amazing initial high and fail.

 

Yup. And it gets more complicated too. As we chase that "magic" we can't seem to find, we find other little bits of improvements that we add to the tote. So... not only do we want the magical first time experience, but we also want the legacy bank we go in game x, and the appearance tab, we got in game y. And we want a theme park and sand box, with great PvP and PvE. And... we also need full voice overs, and great acting too. etc. etc. etc. Lol! And soon, we forget that getting everything, most notably that magical first time experience, is an unrealistic expectation.

[HoboWithAStick]

I don't think ESO and Wildstar will destroy swtor but rather start a chain of events it won't be able to come back from.

 

As it stands right now swtor on its own is down subs and is making the majority of its money from cartel market. Being that Subs continue to fall and will continue to fall into the year as other MMO's launch EA will keep its focus on cartel stuff like packs and extra junk to throw into GSF. The die hard star wars fans/swtor fans will keep playing but will see very little content for their money and any new big content features will be tied to the cartel market kind of like GSF is.

 

 

To everyone saying saying ESO sucks and will flop.

 

You know what other game sucks and flopped? SWTOR! No big surprise there right?

You can deny that all you want but having the biggest launch of any MMO in history and dwindling down to near nothing within a couple months. Sure they are making good bank now off of the cartel market but its all at the players experience.

Where is swtor going to be at the end of the year?

 

Right now swtor is third in the MMO market and my guess is around 250-320k subs?

 

Right now the MMO as far as subs would look like:

 

1. WOW

2.EVE

3.SWTOR

4. Who honestly cares.

 

After All the summer MMO's come out the sub rankings would mostly likely look something like this

 

1. WOW

2. ESO (Even if it does suck)

3. EVE

4. WIldstar

5. SWTOR

Do I have anything to base this off of? No but we know wow will be number 1 for sure, we know ESO is pre-ordering very well right now, EVE subs won't really change much as its the most unique MMO on this list, Wildstar has pretty good draw being that it has some old wow devs on the team and it will be something new.

 

Swtor will lose subs to all those games (Excluding Eve)

Nothing to really argue with there, even if ESO, Wildstar and WOW xpac all totally suck swtor will lose subs to them, it may not be allot but its going to happen and many of those people won't return. That may no seem like a huge deal but it will be a snowball effect. So once again I don't think MMo's this year will kill swtor but it is going to hurt the player pop allot more then you'd think.

 

To everyone that says ESO will fail.

 

Its true, ESO is going to have issues. The combat system is not MMOish at all, the graphics are not next gen (Still better then swtor) and something just feels lacking overall. This normally would leave any game dead on arrival but if swtor has taught us anything we know how far an IP can carry a game.

 

The Elder Scrolls games have all sold well and have all won award after award, hell skyrim itself has sold like 22 mil copies and is one of the best selling games of all time. Many PC gamers will argue that Elder Scrolls games are only good on PC and because of the mods and this is simply just not true. Go to game http://www.gamefaqs.com/ and you will see that all 3 versions of skyrim are still on the the most popular list in the top 10 after 2 years. Whats funny about this is the ps3 version of the game is total junk compared to the xbox version and the xbox version of the game is total junk compared to the pc version and yes the reason for this is the mods. The Skyrim PC modding community is totally crazy and do some really awesome things but they wouldn't do it unless the game was good to begin with right?

 

So go ahead and say whatever you want that ESO sucks, WildStar sucks, wow sucks and swtor is not going to be hurt by any of this. You are in denial, swtor state will continue to decay, cartel market will gouge players more and more and real content will come out less and less and when it does its going to have a price tag just like GSF. Okay you don't have to spend money to play GSF but wouldn't you rather max your ship out 3 times faster? That's what I thought.

[Fantazm]

I'm amazed to some degree about how much some people care about things like this.

[HoboWithAStick]

Hey... winning lotto numbers for this week.... Can we haz please?!

 

Yeah and you leave out where I say I don't have anything to base it off of but give a good reason for each spot. Reason enough that if you'd deny it you'd just be doing it to be ignorant....

[CosmicKat]

Agreed. Or another behavior is to attempt to re-create the love, wonder, and amazement we felt whilst playing our first MMO. Such was the case for me as I bounced from one game to the next. I was frantically trying to recreate the awe I felt the first time I played WOW (which was my first). Even now in my gaming experience nothing has compared to the first time I ran into Stormwind city. Like an addict "chasing the dragon" we try to recreate that amazing initial high and fail.

 

We to try to recreate this feeling, such as in life we go through lovers attempting to "feel" what we felt when we first fell in love with that person we consider to be "the one."

 

Luckily SWTOR is a different animal altogether and such as in RL relationships, we eventually learn to love someone new for their uniqueness - for the special qualities they bring to the table, and stop trying to replace that person we lost.

 

You need something "new" to achieve a sense of wonder in an MMO. There is nothing new in TOR.

[CosmicKat]

...

 

Right now the MMO as far as subs would look like:

 

1. WOW

2.EVE

3.SWTOR

4. Who honestly cares.

 

After All the summer MMO's come out the sub rankings would mostly likely look something like this

 

1. WOW

2. ESO (Even if it does suck)

3. EVE

4. WIldstar

5. SWTOR

 

....

 

That wouldn't be so bad really if 1-5 compared with, say movies. But in the MMO world it isn't that easy. The measure of historical success in MMO's would be something like this...

 

1) Avatar (WoW)

2) Star Wars (Everquest)

...

and then a whole bunch of Direct to Video Steven Seagal movies.

[kimdante]

You need something "new" to achieve a sense of wonder in an MMO. There is nothing new in TOR.

 

Nothing new huh? So let's go ahead and ignore the fact that this game delivered fully, and skillfully, voiced, story driven content and an innovative companion and legacy system because YOU didn't get what YOU wanted.

Edited February 3, 2014 by kimdante

[Andryah]

Yeah and you leave out where I say I don't have anything to base it off of but give a good reason for each spot. Reason enough that if you'd deny it you'd just be doing it to be ignorant....

 

No, I saw your disclaimer. But since your prognostication is much grander then your little disclaimer as an attempted "out" at the end...... still need those winning lotto numbers.

 

In other words, what you were doing was obvious... even with your caveat.

 

But let's be real... active player numbers (and total revenue, for the company) are what matters for any MMO that is running a hybrid access model.. NOT subs. So.. you basically pitched your world view of top 5 sub MMOs.. based on false equivalence (subs only).

Edited February 3, 2014 by Andryah

[CosmicKat]

Nothing new huh? So let's go ahead and ignore the fact that this game delivered fully, and skillfully, voiced, story driven content because YOU didn't get what YOU wanted.

 

Yeah, cause nobody ever did that before.*

 

* Except for Fallout in 1997 which used the following actual actors.... Ron Perlman, Richard Dean Anderson, Clancy Brown, David Warner, Keith David, Tony Shalhoub, etc...

 

Or Wing Commander 3 in 1996 which used the following actual actors... Mark Hamill, Malcom MacDowell, John-Rhys Davies, Tim Curry, Tom Wilson, etc...

 

And so on.

[kimdante]

Yeah, cause nobody ever did that before.*

 

* Except for Fallout in 1997 which used the following actual actors.... Ron Perlman, Richard Dean Anderson, Clancy Brown, David Warner, Keith David, Tony Shalhoub, etc...

 

Or Wing Commander 3 in 1996 which used the following actual actors... Mark Hamill, Malcom MacDowell, John-Rhys Davies, Tim Curry, Tom Wilson, etc...

 

And so on.

 

Not MMORPGS.

[DarthDymond]

You need something "new" to achieve a sense of wonder in an MMO. There is nothing new in TOR.

Well there's the rub, when you're in the midst of it, one person's wonder-inspiring "new" is the next person's "dumb gimmick that's a complete waste of time/development".

 

Galaxies' New Gaming Enhancement? Rift's Player Dimensions? WoW's scaling Raids? SW:TOR's Galactic Starfighter? All those are things that some people enjoyed and found a new sense of "wonder" from, and all of those same things had other people who found them to be a complete waste.

 

It's only after the fact, once the numbers are in, that we can say whether a mechanic, game mode, or twist was a success or not for the game in question. And even then we're just saying something along the lines of "more people seemed to like it than not" or vice versa - for each individual player it's always going to be a subjective, personal call.

[CosmicKat]

Not MMORPGS.

 

Well if you want to split hairs like that, then SWG was revolutionary for being the first Star Wars based MMO to incorporate mouse controls.

[HoboWithAStick]

No, I saw your disclaimer. But since your prognostication is much grander then your little disclaimer as an attempted "out" at the end...... still need those winning lotto numbers.

 

In other words, what you were doing was obvious... even with your caveat.

 

But let's be real... active player numbers (and total revenue, for the company) are what matters for any MMO that is running a hybrid access model.. NOT subs. So.. you basically pitched your world view of top 5 sub MMOs.. based on false equivalence (subs only).

 

Total Revenue is what matters for the company but not the player.

 

The game came out as sub only so isn't that the model they wanted to use? Switching to the hybrid model just goes further to show their defeat, sure they are making good money now but they are screwing the player to do it.

 

Wouldn't it be better to make the game good enough that lots of people play and pay their sub and fund the game that way? Rather then selling out their player base and nickel and dimming them for what they want in the game? They are exploiting that we love instant gratification, is that really success?

 

They are making twice as much off of the cartel market as they are off of raw subs. I'd say more people play this game like a slot machine then a actual MMO.

[Andryah]

Total Revenue is what matters for the company but not the player.

 

The game came out as sub only so isn't that the model they wanted to use? Switching to the hybrid model just goes further to show their defeat, sure they are making good money now but they are screwing the player to do it.

 

Wouldn't it be better to make the game good enough that lots of people play and pay their sub and fund the game that way? Rather then selling out their player base and nickel and dimming them for what they want in the game? They are exploiting that we love instant gratification, is that really success?

 

They are making twice as much off of the cartel market as they are off of raw subs. I'd say more people play this game like a slot machine then a actual MMO.

 

Total Active Players matter.

They matter to the players (because it's a multi-player environment).

They matter to the company not only for total revenue, but also total pool of players to continue to develop content for such that they continue to play and continue to provide revenue to the company.

 

You are trying to paint a picture above via a subs-only lens, yet include both sub and hybrid MMOs while disregarding the non-sub player base in the hybrids. It's inaccurate, and it's a distortion... but I do acknowledge that it works well for your particular narrative about SWTOR. I believe you know this, but you have a narrative you want to press....so it works for your narrative. But you are not fooling many folks with it, IMO, but I responded anyway.. just to help keep clarity and objectivity on the table. I am content to let other forum members read both our posts and decide for themselves what makes the most sense to them.

Edited February 3, 2014 by Andryah

[Corsiero]

I like the hybrid model, it offers choice. In saying that, I've pre-ordered the Imperial edition, in the hopes of voiced story content of a different theme. Don't want to put more money into this game. I don't like the direction it's going in regards to story content and certain demographics of this community.

I'll switch playstyles because PvP and GSF will be unlimited. Just missing Operations.

Edited February 3, 2014 by Corsiero

[HoboWithAStick]

Total Active Players matter.

They matter to the players (because it's a multi-player environment).

They matter to the company not only for total revenue, but also total pool of players to continue to develop content for such that they continue to play and continue to provide revenue to the company.

 

You are trying to paint a picture above via a subs-only lens, yet include both sub and hybrid MMOs while disregarding the non-sub player base in any hybrids. It's inaccurate, and it's a distortion... but I do acknowledge that it works well for your particular narrative about SWTOR. But you are not fooling many folks with it, IMO, but I responded anyway.. just to help keep clarity and objectivity on the table. I am content to let other forum members read both our posts and decide for themselves what makes the most sense.

 

Do many people play that aren't subs though? I personally doubt it. Playing the game without a sub is very restrictive and anyone that could afford a sub I would assume would pay for one. With that being said the player pop continues to drop, you don't need to read about the EA investor call to even know that just play the game. POTF has less and less raid groups going into DF and DP each week, GSF and ground PVP barely Que outside of Peak hours.

[CosmicKat]

Total Revenue is what matters for the company but not the player.

 

The game came out as sub only so isn't that the model they wanted to use? Switching to the hybrid model just goes further to show their defeat, sure they are making good money now but they are screwing the player to do it.

 

Wouldn't it be better to make the game good enough that lots of people play and pay their sub and fund the game that way? Rather then selling out their player base and nickel and dimming them for what they want in the game? They are exploiting that we love instant gratification, is that really success?

 

They are making twice as much off of the cartel market as they are off of raw subs. I'd say more people play this game like a slot machine then a actual MMO.

 

The way reality works around here is thusly...

 

TOR was supposed to hold an audience of 2-2.5 million people. It didn't.

 

The benchmark was then moved to somewhere south of 500k.

 

As such, it is no longer a failure for not keeping 2 million people, but a massive success for keeping somewhere around 500k.

 

Why do people do this? It's to frame reality to their version of it. There is this bizarre belief around here that if you pretend something is true for long enough, it will eventually become true. The danger of course is that when you won't acknowledge a problem exists, it is pretty much impossible to fix it.

[Infernixx]

The way reality works around here is thusly...

 

TOR was supposed to hold an audience of 2-2.5 million people. It didn't.

 

The benchmark was then moved to somewhere south of 500k.

 

As such, it is no longer a failure for not keeping 2 million people, but a massive success for keeping somewhere around 500k.

 

Why do people do this? It's to frame reality to their version of it. There is this bizarre belief around here that if you pretend something is true for long enough, it will eventually become true. The danger of course is that when you won't acknowledge a problem exists, it is pretty much impossible to fix it.

 

You plainly don't understand how business works.

 

You don't cling to outdated goals when it becomes obvious that you're not going to reach them. You make a realistic assessment of the situation and tailor your approach to what's achievable, both in the short term and the long term.

 

They had outlandishly out-of-touch goals at launch and it blew up in their faces. They've since adjusted their goals to more realistic and attainable goals and it really seems to be working for them as they've transitioned from a dying game to a wildly profitable game in a year's time.

 

There will always be people who insist on clinging to outdated goals for whatever reason, but they can safely dismissed as unrealistic and just silly.

[Darth_Wicked]

(...) TOR was supposed to hold an audience of 2-2.5 million people. It didn't.

 

The benchmark was then moved to somewhere south of 500k. (...)

 

This is untrue...

 

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/star-wars-the-old-republic-needs-only-500k-subscribers-ea/1100-6297338/

 

News almost a full(!) year BEFORE the game was released.

Edited February 3, 2014 by Darth_Wicked

[Sangrar]

This is untrue...

 

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/star-wars-the-old-republic-needs-only-500k-subscribers-ea/1100-6297338/

 

News almost a full(!) year BEFORE the game was released.

 

and the cartel market revenue only added to that amount of profit, even as a game that literally only needed 500k subs at the time, I think its part of why the game survived early on.

[DarthDymond]

The way reality works around here is thusly...

 

TOR was supposed to hold an audience of 2-2.5 million people. It didn't.

 

The benchmark was then moved to somewhere south of 500k.

 

As such, it is no longer a failure for not keeping 2 million people, but a massive success for keeping somewhere around 500k.

 

Why do people do this? It's to frame reality to their version of it. There is this bizarre belief around here that if you pretend something is true for long enough, it will eventually become true. The danger of course is that when you won't acknowledge a problem exists, it is pretty much impossible to fix it.

While I can understand people having a gut-level "hey, that's cheating" reaction to them moving the goal posts, it's not like what happened was that some EA exec just randomly stood up and said, "No, no, no - what we meant to say was that 500,000 was our goal!"

 

When "the benchmark was then moved to somewhere south of 500k" it was because they completely restructured how the game was monetized.

 

If the game is pulling in $139 million from microtransactions, then yes, that absolutely changes how many subs the game needs to be "successful". How could it not?

 

Now I've said before that a final analysis of whether or not SWTOR was a "win" for EA/BW should include a look at the initial failure of the subscription model - because of the opportunity (and straightforward monetary) costs that went into the development of the game. But those are sunk costs now, and have no bearing on the game's current viability or profitability - which are the markers being used when people say it has become "successful".

Edited February 3, 2014 by DarthDymond

[Foxtrotmikelima]

I have been playing swtor for well over a year and a half,. II do enjoy the new products that they put out, however i have a concern about the future here. IN the next coupe months, as many of us know, Bethesda will be launching ESO. This is a massive game to try and go against, and yet EA and BIoware have nothing on the horizon to counter it. A new FP this coming month is nice, sort of as there is not a whole lot there for endgamers to really get excited about, but were is the next expansion. Its been a year since the release of ROTHC with no hint of another expansion on the horizon. Oricon and CZ were nice small add ons, although if i hear Ramuss or Vigilant speak again i might have to remove my ears, but were is the next Makeb, the next level cap, the things that keep the endgame players happy. Lets face it most of this games subs are those endgame players and If BW doesn't step it up fast, i worry about the future of the swtor galaxy

 

There will not be a massive exodus from SWTOR for a number of reasons.

 

1.) ESO is a Sub based game with no F2P option. Meaning those currently playing for F2P and do so because its F2P will not walk away from that.

 

2.) ESO does not relate to the SW IP in the least bit. You will not see Jedi and Sith running amok in Tamriel. A very strong and solid part of this playerbase are here because of the underlying RP aspect of the game. Even those that dont outright RP still have a sense of what their character is like from a loose RP aspect. And hence, theyve created an attachment to those characters.

 

3.) The Cartel Market. Both F2Pers and Subs have spent between 5 bucks to a few hundred dollars enhancing their gaming experience. From a few boosts to equipping every character and companion with gear they prefer over whats offered through leveling. When transferring from one sub to another. Its much easier to excuse moving on. Its not the same when youve put so much effort and extra real life money into something.

 

This game will experience a small loss of subs and maybe even some F2Pers. But a good number of them will return after realizing ESO is not everything they convinced themselves and its lacking Endgame Content just like every other MMO. So this game does not have anything serious to worry about in regards to ESO. What they really need to worry about is devoting too much attention to the CM and less towards actual content. When that balance is lost. They will begin to bleed subs.

[CosmicKat]

This is untrue...

 

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/star-wars-the-old-republic-needs-only-500k-subscribers-ea/1100-6297338/

 

News almost a full(!) year BEFORE the game was released.

 

They had capacity at launch for 2+ million people. That was, therefore, their budgeted for and expected audience size.

 

500k was the worst case, while still being salvageable, scenario.

 

The issue isn't the size, because 500k is pretty decent. The issue is that they grossly missed their intended audience, and instead of adapting the game to recover, they chose to redefine the model around income per player instead of number of players.

[CosmicKat]

....

 

If the game is pulling in $139 million from microtransactions, then yes, that absolutely changes how many subs the game needs to be "successful". How could it not?

 

...

 

That's a completely made up number.

 

IF it's a yearly figure and IF they have 1 million players, it would require the average CM purchases per player to equal $138/year. That is within the ballpark of a year's subscription.... from 1 million people? That sounds far beyond dubious to me, and in the realm of preposterously implausible.