after opening 54 packs: NO VARACTYL

[HelinCarnate]

Your problem is you are still making the assumption that the ODDS ON MULTIPLE ROLLS MATTER. They don't. Only look at EACH ROLL.

 

What are the odds of me rolling a 1 on a die 6? 1 in 6.

 

What are the odds of me rolling a 1 on a die 6? 1 in 6.

 

What are the odds of me rolling a 1 on a die 6? 1 in 6.

 

The Gambler's Fallacy is when you think that me having not rolled a 1 my first roll has anything to do with what I roll the 2nd and 3rd time. Yes, the probability that I will roll a 1 in 3 rolls is better, but again that doesn't mean anything. The odds of rolling a 1 ON EACH ROLL will always be the same, 1 in 6.

 

SO, you are just as likely to get a varactyl on your 54th pack as your 1st pack. Yes, your chances are greater when taking ALL packs into account, but you can't do that. Each pack has to be treated as a separate pack because it's completely independent.

 

This is why counting cards actually works. There, as cards are removed from the deck, the probability of getting the cards you want actually does change. But with a 100% random chance that never changes, all probability increases go out the window. Your chance of rolling a 1 on a die 6 is the same regardless of how many times you roll that die 6.

 

Exactly. That is why I hated the show Deal or no deal. They kept changing the odds based off of what was eliminated. No matter how many other cases were revealed, the odds that you picked the correct $1mil case was always 1 : 26. They could reveal 24 of them and show 1 case and the one you picked and your odds would still be 1 :26 that you picked the correct case not 1 : 2

[CarpeSangrea]

I'm glad it's rare. That sound they make is really freaking annoying.

[Ricul]

If people keep supporting cartel market instead of actual content the game will keep going that direction. People like op ruin this game.

[DarthMaulUK]

I can't remember the last time I managed to get anything of actual value in these packs, so I don't really purchase them any more. Now, I just wait a few days to see whats on the GTN and watch the race as the prices drop.

[MajikMyst]

I can't remember the last time I managed to get anything of actual value in these packs, so I don't really purchase them any more. Now, I just wait a few days to see whats on the GTN and watch the race as the prices drop.

 

The only problem is, the Varactyl is still over 3 million credits on my server..

 

I think Bioware has totally lost it on the cartel market and packs stuff.. They seem to have forgotten about the subscribers..

[sinnaman]

I can't remember the last time I managed to get anything of actual value in these packs, so I don't really purchase them any more.

 

This is the real issue. Tell me, if all that BW is interested in is making money... then why not sell the Varactyl's and black dyes and whatever people really want straight from the Cartel Market? (I know they sell the dyes but the "limited availability is BS") They would make more money that way instead of disgruntling a good portion of folks that have had enough of the RNG and won't buy packs anymore.

 

if I wanted to buy the new Mercedes Benz, I would go to my local dealer and buy it. But what if I had to stand in the doorway and pay a fair amount of money to roll a 20 sided dice just for the chance to possibly get one at a reduced cost? I think that gimmick would go over well for a couple of weeks, but when people started to realize they were spending 10 times the amount of what the car is worth and still not getting one... they would be upset.

 

And on top of that...how would people react to being forced to buy the car from someone who happened to get lucky and is standing outside the door selling for more then the car is really worth? What the heck kind of business strategy is that? It wouldn't be long before people would suspect that the dealership had something shady going on... and the so called "lucky people" selling the cars outside are really making huge profits because they "know someone at the dealership".

 

You sell the most wanted items directly on the Cartel Market. People pay real money for them... Bioware wins. People sell them for in game credits... players who don't want to spend real money win. It's a win win.

 

Why not do this?

Edited September 17, 2013 by sinnaman

[AbsolutGrndZero]

And on top of that...how would people react to being forced to buy the car from someone who happened to get lucky and is standing outside the door selling for more then the car is really worth? What the heck kind of business strategy is that? It wouldn't be long before people would suspect that the dealership had something shady going on... and the so called "lucky people" selling the cars outside are really making huge profits because they "know someone at the dealership".

 

Ok, I was with you kind of until this part... Being fictional that's a possibility. But, by saying that in your analogy, intending to or not, you are implying that those who actually got varactyls knows someone at Bioware and got a varactyl at a greater than normal chance.

 

The random packs are the way Bioware has chosen to market many things. They also put many things separately too. I happen to like it. Sometimes I get something nice. Sometimes I don't. When I don't get something I want, I either sell it if it has value, or save it to gift to my friends or guildmates, or else wait for it to be worth something at another date.

 

If you choose not to participate in the gamble packs, that's your right. It's my right that I choose to participate.

 

Would you say that because you are unlucky at blackjack I shoudn't be allowed to play blackjack at the casino, and instead they should just make all their money from the buffet? (Don't know about where you live, but I actually know people who go to Sac & Fox Casino near where I live that would never even consider gambling, but they go with their friends and hang out at the buffet cause it's one of the best around.)

Edited September 17, 2013 by AbsolutGrndZero

[SchmokeZ]

so ive just buyed 2x the 24x hipercrate. and more 6 of the other pac (the simplier one) and havent got any varactyl.

also have 4 pieces of complete 505 sieries armor (2 of them equal).

ive receive so many many many many many many [Rotworm Practice Jersey]

ive also got about 3 or 4 speeders on allthat. but no varactyl.

ok they are randon. but how much low is the chance??

im feeling playing Diablo 3 here...

 

HOW RANDOM AND RARE ARE THESE DROPS????

 

Player - "Dear Mr Casino Owner, I've just spent £50,000 betting on 'black 35' 500 times in a row and it didn't come up once!! *** is up with that?!?

Casino Owner - "Mwahahahahahahahahaha"

[Chimpopo]

so ive just buyed 2x the 24x hipercrate. and more 6 of the other pac (the simplier one) and havent got any varactyl.

also have 4 pieces of complete 505 sieries armor (2 of them equal).

ive receive so many many many many many many [Rotworm Practice Jersey]

ive also got about 3 or 4 speeders on allthat. but no varactyl.

ok they are randon. but how much low is the chance??

im feeling playing Diablo 3 here...

 

HOW RANDOM AND RARE ARE THESE DROPS????

 

They should drop Random from Hypercrates. They should be a set of packs predefined that have at least one of every item in the series of packs. Meaning at least one of every super rare etc... amongst the 24 packs.

 

I am no longer buying cartel packs due to the poor randomness of them. Not worth the real money.

Edited September 17, 2013 by Chimpopo

[AlaricSevGirl]

The point is that Bioware has this set to ultra super rare and it's not dropping like it should be but that's how they get people to spend money on coveted pixels.

[branmakmuffin]

Your problem is you are still making the assumption that the ODDS ON MULTIPLE ROLLS MATTER. They don't. Only look at EACH ROLL.

If you get more rolls, you get more chances to get the result you are looking for. It really is baffling that you cannot see this. At this point, I'm beginning to suspect you are trolling.

 

If I say "You get 1 roll to roll a 1" and "I get to roll until I get a 1" we might both get a 1 on our first roll. But I am far more likely to get a 1 within the given parameters.

Edited September 17, 2013 by branmakmuffin

[AbsolutGrndZero]

If you get more rolls, you get more chances to get the result you are looking for. It really is baffling that you cannot see this. At this point, I'm beginning to suspect you are trolling.

 

If I say "You get 1 roll to roll a 1" and "I get to roll until I get a 1" we might both get a 1 on our first roll. But I am far more likely to get a 1 within the given parameters.

 

No, I am not trolling, and I am honestly getting sick of how many people have no clue what trolling actually is. You however are failing to understand the Gambler's Fallacy yet keep thinking you do.

 

So, I am done. Continue to think you are correct, and I will do the same.

Edited September 17, 2013 by AbsolutGrndZero

[mikebevo]

They should drop Random from Hypercrates. They should be a set of packs predefined that have at least one of every item in the series of packs. Meaning at least one of every super rare etc... amongst the 24 packs..

If one of every super rare item dropped from every 24 packs, then they would not be random nor rare.

[Ziso]

if there is something you really really want, sell the packs unopened and buy the item outright. I sold my free pack the other month for 300k and bought one of the speeders I liked the look for off GTN for 150k.

I don't bother opening the packs anymore as:

1) rare resources are anything but rare. I usually add them to the other 100-200 of the same material you can get from a companion mission.

2) Too much crap like jawagrams

3) Most orange armor and weapons can be got from GTN a week after release for pennies

[TUXs]

if I wanted to buy the new Mercedes Benz, I would go to my local dealer and buy it. But what if I had to stand in the doorway and pay a fair amount of money to roll a 20 sided dice just for the chance to possibly get one at a reduced cost? I think that gimmick would go over well for a couple of weeks, but when people started to realize they were spending 10 times the amount of what the car is worth and still not getting one... they would be upset.

 

And on top of that...how would people react to being forced to buy the car from someone who happened to get lucky and is standing outside the door selling for more then the car is really worth? What the heck kind of business strategy is that? It wouldn't be long before people would suspect that the dealership had something shady going on... and the so called "lucky people" selling the cars outside are really making huge profits because they "know someone at the dealership".

 

You sell the most wanted items directly on the Cartel Market. People pay real money for them... Bioware wins. People sell them for in game credits... players who don't want to spend real money win. It's a win win.

 

Why not do this?

If every time I rolled that die, I not only had a chance to win a Mercedes but I was also assured of getting desirable and collectable loot, it might actually be worth it to take the chance...because even if I don't end up with the car I want, chances are I'll have multiple other items of value from the rolls.

 

They don't sell them directly (often) because they actually DO make more off them as Cartel RNG items.

[PhilD]

If I say "You get 1 roll to roll a 1" and "I get to roll until I get a 1" we might both get a 1 on our first roll. But I am far more likely to get a 1 within the given parameters.

 

MATH DOES NOT WORK THAT WAY! GOOD NIGHT! /Morbo

[Odyseus]

If you wanted one that bad, it was probably cheaper to buy credits and purchase it outright on the GTN. That's a lot of money spent on cartel packs.

[branmakmuffin]

No, I am not trolling, and I am honestly getting sick of how many people have no clue what trolling actually is. You however are failing to understand the Gambler's Fallacy yet keep thinking you do.

 

So, I am done. Continue to think you are correct, and I will do the same.

And I will continue to be correct and you will continue to think you are. Sleep well.

[Amera]

This is the real issue. Tell me, if all that BW is interested in is making money... then why not sell the Varactyl's and black dyes and whatever people really want straight from the Cartel Market?

 

You sell the most wanted items directly on the Cartel Market. People pay real money for them... Bioware wins. People sell them for in game credits... players who don't want to spend real money win. It's a win win.

 

Why not do this?

 

Because they actually make more money that way. If it was only EA that was doing this, it would be easy enough to assume they had miscalculated. But almost every F2P MMO I can think of uses gambling boxes in some form because it actually makes more money than selling things outright.

 

Why? Psychology. There's an enormous amount of research on how people respond to getting fixed rewards vs RNG rewards. There's a great piece lurking around somewhere speaking about why Diablo 3 loot was so unsatisfying because of the AH due to this quirk, and there are plenty more that speak to the idea of commendations vs RNG drops.

 

And of course, there's also the fact that hiding rare items inside a dice roll obfuscates their value. Did you see the reaction to Bioware listing a dye for $20 even thought that was probably less than it was actually worth before when it was in the box? They would probably need to list the Varactyl at $50 or something, in which case people would go nuts. This way, they can hide the rarity better and dupe people into thinking "I'm the lucky one."

Edited September 17, 2013 by Amera

[DOHboy]

pfft, people still complaining about RNG?

 

OP opened 2 crates didn't get mount and proceeds to throw an internet fit. I opened 4 didn't get mount, shrug my shoulders, take my items sell some on the GTN or add to my collections and enjoyed the thrill of opening them.

 

For everyone of you there are one of ME, for everyone of ME there are some who get 2 in one pack.

Some people win the lottery, some people get smited by a meteorite sent from across the galaxy in the ultimate FU from the Universe.

 

Random is Random!!

[ObiJuanShenobi]

so ive just buyed 2x the 24x hipercrate. and more 6 of the other pac (the simplier one) and havent got any varactyl.

also have 4 pieces of complete 505 sieries armor (2 of them equal).

ive receive so many many many many many many [Rotworm Practice Jersey]

ive also got about 3 or 4 speeders on allthat. but no varactyl.

ok they are randon. but how much low is the chance??

im feeling playing Diablo 3 here...

 

HOW RANDOM AND RARE ARE THESE DROPS????

 

You seriously bought 54 packs? /facepalm

you could have bought 10 packs, sold them on the GTN, and made enough money off of that to BUY the varactyl.

 

I'm sure it's been mentioned in this thread. But I'm not searching for the comment

[Sobur]

People never learn , i only use the monthly coins to get packs now. Well i did buy 1k cartel coins and for that i got a crap ton of frasium and chair emotes. Just save credits and buy from the GTN , got the full series 505 armor for a total of 1 million credits. I would of had to spend 1 million dollars to get the set from packs.

[RomeooemoR]

If you get more rolls, you get more chances to get the result you are looking for. It really is baffling that you cannot see this. At this point, I'm beginning to suspect you are trolling.

 

If I say "You get 1 roll to roll a 1" and "I get to roll until I get a 1" we might both get a 1 on our first roll. But I am far more likely to get a 1 within the given parameters.

 

I would like to point out that you are correct in saying that you are far more likely to roll a one given the parameters that you've set out. Infact you've all but guarenteed the result by saying that you will roll until you get a 1. Now replace "Will roll a 1" with "Will get a Varactyl". Alll you've said is that if you continue to open packs until you get one.. you will get one.

 

The point the original replier to your message was trying to point out is that you are subscribing to the Gambler's Fallacy which essentially states that you believe your odds of future outcomes are influenced by the outcome of prevvious events (You opening X amount of packs to date, and believing your odds are better on future paclks) when each outcome is independant of each other. Now if you think we're still trolling you should google both "Gambler's Fallacy" and "Variance". If you do this and gave variance the TLDR, let me coles notes it for you.

 

Flip a coin 10, excluding it landing on its side you have a 50/50 chance of heads or tails. You might flip 10 heads in a row, or 10 tails and conclude that the the odds are not correct. However over a million flips or ten million flips the variance will assure that the odds are correct within a very minute percetage. This is how casinos make money.

 

Now if you still think I'm trolling, allow me to actually troll! I came back to the game after 6 months, opened two packs and got one without knowing what it was Good luck though, the prices are coming down on these things.

[branmakmuffin]

I would like to point out that you are correct in saying that you are far more likely to roll a one given the parameters that you've set out. Infact you've all but guarenteed the result by saying that you will roll until you get a 1. Now replace "Will roll a 1" with "Will get a Varactyl". Alll you've said is that if you continue to open packs until you get one.. you will get one.

If you open 50 packs you are more likely to get one than if you open 1 pack . You're getting 50 .1% (or whatever) chances instead of just 1.

 

The point the original replier to your message was trying to point out is that you are subscribing to the Gambler's Fallacy which essentially states that you believe your odds of future outcomes are influenced by the outcome of prevvious events (You opening X amount of packs to date, and believing your odds are better on future paclks) when each outcome is independant of each other. Now if you think we're still trolling you should google both "Gambler's Fallacy" and "Variance". If you do this and gave variance the TLDR, let me coles notes it for you.

There are a lot of people apparently who do not understand the Gambler's Fallacy, and none of them is me.

 

Each individual pack has the same chance (presumably) to have a varactyl. Opening 50 packs does not increase the chance of getting a varactyl on the 51st pack. To think that it does is an example of the Gambler's Fallacy. And that has nothing to do with what I have been stating over several posts. Opening 50 packs does give you a greater chance of getting a varactyl than opening 1 pack (or 2 or 49 packs). That is not that Gambler's Fallacy. if you don't understand that, there is no way I can explain it better.

Edited September 17, 2013 by branmakmuffin

[Andryah]

The thread that keeps on giving I guess.

 

Well.. going back to the OP.. IF I had bought 54 packs and opened them and not got the one item I really really wanted... I'd be pissed tooooooooooooo... AT MYSELF.

 

I would have also learned a good lesson the hard way ----> next time, buy 10 pack and resell them on the GTN at market rates... then take the credits earned.. and buy the virtual item I simply had to have.

 

Happily, this is not a lesson I had to learn the hard way. I have found ample ways to easily make credits in game and always have plenty to buy up any of the latest popular CM items off the GTN.

Edited September 17, 2013 by Andryah