Fanyen Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Though the odds of never having got Revan's mask do decrease the odds in the next pack is still 1 in 100 absolutely. Buying more packs does increase the likelyhood of picking up the Mask though because..... Warning maths incoming.... Odds of not getting is 99/100 (100/100 -1/100) therefore in two packs you have to not get it twice hence the odds of not getting it are (99/100)*(99/100)=0.9801 (no meaningful difference) but to not get it three you then times by 99/100 again and so on and so forth.... after five packs the odds are about 1/20 of having got the mask. After ten you're up to about 1/10 and after 20 you are up to about 1/5. However the odds of any individual box containing the Mask is still 1/100. Getting an item from a previous box does not mean you can not get it again in the next box. Therefore it's still possible to get in the next box and the odds are exactly the same when you open the next box. Your chances do not get "better" with more boxes, they are the same each and every time you open a box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darklordpotter Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 (edited) Getting an item from a previous box does not mean you can not get it again in the next box. Therefore it's still possible to get in the next box and the odds are exactly the same when you open the next box. Your chances do not get "better" with more boxes, they are the same each and every time you open a box. I know "the odds of any individual box containing a Revan's Mask is still 1/100" just having more boxes gives you more 1/100 chances increasing the odds that one of those boxes will contain what you are looking for (as explained in the maths section above). Edited December 24, 2012 by darklordpotter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AelixVII Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 (edited) To be honest, the only thing worth doing when a pack update comes out is wait a few days until the GTN gets flooded with the items, then you can just go around buying the weapons and armor for around 50-100k and the pets for the same. You'll still have to shell out over 1mill at least for the rarer mounts but it's cheaper this way overall considering the old pack items can still turn up in the new packs, even less chance of a rare. Edited December 24, 2012 by AelixVII Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegendaryBlade Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Why do people still buy these? You have to know their reputation. They are very obviously just money sinks meant for the gullible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timmyw Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Those packs are the equivalent of gambling, you have a "chance" of rare drops. You know I have had this uneasy feeling about these packs for ages and I couldn't quite put my finger on it. Then I read this and BAM! there it is. They aren't like gambling, they ARE gambling. Don't know why the implications of this didn't hit me before, guess I have been in lala land with the holidays and for some reason the idea that this is a game sat in the forefront of my mind. I think that is why so many people have been upset by these things. It's because they didn't actually realise they were gambling, or perhaps the extent of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galbatorrix Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 So far, I've spent maybe 20 or so bucks and have made about 5 Million altogether. It's all about luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-IceHawk- Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I know "the odds of any individual box containing a Revan's Mask is still 1/100" just having more boxes gives you more 1/100 chances increasing the odds that one of those boxes will contain what you are looking for (as explained in the maths section above). Um, no. One Million Boxes X 1/100 Chance = 1,000,000/100,000,000 = 0.01% It does not matter how many boxes you open up. Your chance of receiving a rare item is as identical on the first box as it will be on box ten-thousand. This is the fallacy of a gambler and the reason why Bioware is never going to let these packs go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinjar Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I like the packs. They sell well on the GTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darklordpotter Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Um, no. One Million Boxes X 1/100 Chance = 1,000,000/100,000,000 = 0.01% It does not matter how many boxes you open up. Your chance of receiving a rare item is as identical on the first box as it will be on box ten-thousand. This is the fallacy of a gambler and the reason why Bioware is never going to let these packs go... No just no. The odd of a box containing whatever (x) is 1% so if you open 1 box your odds of getting x is 1%. For you to open two boxes and not get x either time you calculate the odds of not getting x the first time (100%-1% =99%) and times it by the odds of not getting x the second time (again 99%) because for you not to get x you have to not get it from both boxes. Therefore you need an event to happen twice and to calculate that with probabilities you multiply hence 99%*99% = 98.01% (0.9801). if you open 1 million boxes the odds of the next box containing the Mask will still be 1/100 (1%) but you will on average have 1,000,000 (the number of "goes") * 1/100 (the odds of each "go" yielding what you want) = 10,000 masks. The odds of never getting a mask is (99/100)^1*10^6 ie effectively zero. Of course I don't recommend it and it doesn't change the comment the boxes are a naff way of trying to get rare items. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SentinelDranoel Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I see some people are helping and also letting these players know that each box is and individual event, and therefore your odds are the same in each box. I was going to reply back to a few people but some of you guys beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goretzu Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 To be honest, the only thing worth doing when a pack update comes out is wait a few days until the GTN gets flooded with the items, then you can just go around buying the weapons and armor for around 50-100k and the pets for the same. You'll still have to shell out over 1mill at least for the rarer mounts but it's cheaper this way overall considering the old pack items can still turn up in the new packs, even less chance of a rare. This probably keeping the gold sellers in a tidy business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBBP Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 This probably keeping the gold sellers in a tidy business. At $20-$30 for a million credits? You can spend $20 on Cartel Coins and make FAR more than a million credits with selling the packs. Anyone dumb enough to buy TOR credits from farmers would be dumb enough to regardless of the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goretzu Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 At $20-$30 for a million credits? You can spend $20 on Cartel Coins and make FAR more than a million credits with selling the packs. Anyone dumb enough to buy TOR credits from farmers would be dumb enough to regardless of the situation. No idea, I've never bought any gold in any MMORPG, so I've no idea what the current (or any) prices are. Makes you wonder if that is who Bioware EA see as their competitiors though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AsheraII Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 To be honest, the only thing worth doing when a pack update comes out is wait a few days until the GTN gets flooded with the items, then you can just go around buying the weapons and armor for around 50-100k and the pets for the same. You'll still have to shell out over 1mill at least for the rarer mounts but it's cheaper this way overall considering the old pack items can still turn up in the new packs, even less chance of a rare. What server are you on? Some pieces may go as low as 5k (the common mounts and armor pieces like boots), only a few of the weapons go below 100k (actually, it's only the sniper guns that go cheap, I guess the TAC hud is a bit too TACky). Half the weapons still sell easily near 200k, even the Black Nebula Blaster from the first pack goes around that rate here. The Phantom chestpiece goes between 300 and 400k, as does the Lhoosan Manta. The really rare things, like thrones, meditation chairs, Revan/Nihilus/Phantom mask and the rarest of pets range from 2 to 4 million. Still, I wouldn't buy packs to earn credits. There are some really cheap unlocks I'd pick for that, which generate an exchangerate a bit higher than 1:1000. And from what I've seen, opening 3 packs isn't a very reliable method of aquiring any of the special items. You might get one of the uncommon mounts or something like that, but it might as well result in 2 tossballs and a bunch of banners. The 70k credits was actually a pretty lucky draw for OP, the total value of those three packs could've been much, much lower, like barely 3k, which is NOT an exceptionally low result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goretzu Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 What server are you on? Some pieces may go as low as 5k (the common mounts and armor pieces like boots), only a few of the weapons go below 100k (actually, it's only the sniper guns that go cheap, I guess the TAC hud is a bit too TACky). Half the weapons still sell easily near 200k, even the Black Nebula Blaster from the first pack goes around that rate here. The Phantom chestpiece goes between 300 and 400k, as does the Lhoosan Manta. The really rare things, like thrones, meditation chairs, Revan/Nihilus/Phantom mask and the rarest of pets range from 2 to 4 million. Still, I wouldn't buy packs to earn credits. There are some really cheap unlocks I'd pick for that, which generate an exchangerate a bit higher than 1:1000. And from what I've seen, opening 3 packs isn't a very reliable method of aquiring any of the special items. You might get one of the uncommon mounts or something like that, but it might as well result in 2 tossballs and a bunch of banners. The 70k credits was actually a pretty lucky draw for OP, the total value of those three packs could've been much, much lower, like barely 3k, which is NOT an exceptionally low result. Indeed I've rarely seen the rarer armour below 700,000 a piece and the rare mounts below 2,000,000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieRAya Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 so if i'm try to open the pack 15 times. does it have high possible to get revan's mask? IMO Blockade Runner's has more possibility to get good item than crime lord. CMIIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SithVeritas Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 80%? What other facts are you privy to? Darth Hater cartel market survey. Yeah, the packs have ridiculous odds at best, I spent 2.5k cartel coins on the Revan pack, the only noteworthy thing I got was a 2V-R8 customization, the rest were companion gifts/emotes and other crap I either bought for 1k credits on the GTN or already unlocked. Just stay away from the packs, unless you have nothing better to do with your money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieRAya Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 (edited) some players giving me advice that opening pack is not just trying your luck but give you a little boost in your credit. well right now i'm very shortage with my credit (it is only 87k credit horrible) and i want to buy revan mask that cost 3 million. how long i can get those credit? so some player giving me advice about try to gamble at cartel pack. beside you get chance to get the item your want, you can get more credit from Credit Boom or selling item to GTM. so i want to try just once this time by opening 15 packs all along hoping get revan's mask to keep it and other valuable item to sell it in GTM so i can buy others cartel item with credit. Edited December 31, 2012 by ieRAya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galbatorrix Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 some players giving me advice that opening pack is not just trying your luck but give you a little boost in your credit. well right now i'm very shortage with my credit (it is only 87k credit horrible) and i want to buy revan mask that cost 3 million. how long i can get those credit? so some player giving me advice about try to gamble at cartel pack. beside you get chance to get the item your want, you can get more credit from Credit Boom or selling item to GTM. so i want to try just once this time by opening 15 packs all along hoping get revan's mask to keep it and other valuable item to sell it in GTM so i can buy others cartel item with credit. If you want a specific item, you're better off selling the packs themselves on the GTN. The Blockade Runners pack, for instance, normally sells for 350-400K each, If you sold the 15 packs that you plan on opening, you'd have 5 to 6 Million credits when all is said and done and you could easily afford a Revan mask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prysha Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Stop buying packs until ea drops that concept... that easy it could be.. but.. i dont see that happening because we have so many zombies in this game XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieRAya Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 If you want a specific item, you're better off selling the packs themselves on the GTN. The Blockade Runners pack, for instance, normally sells for 350-400K each, If you sold the 15 packs that you plan on opening, you'd have 5 to 6 Million credits when all is said and done and you could easily afford a Revan mask. wow thanks. that's a very good advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedimasterjac Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Been down this road before wondering why? Just why? As I watch two thrones speed past me. Lol, I want the Jedi ish throne for my Jedi Knight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bahdasz Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Spent 1500 cartel points on packs, got a grand total of about 70k's worth of credits. Kind of think this takes the piss, what is the drop rate on some of the rare stuff, seems a bit of a joke really. I'm pretty sure the intent of the cartel market was not to give people an alternative way to make in-game money. I know I never saw them advertised that way. I laugh at you and all like you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glorthox Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Cartel packs are designed to have very low drop rates on certain high credit selling items, hence the reason why people spend so much money on them. And this is how Bioware / EA make their extra money, because it teases their gamers into buying so many cartel coins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ieRAya Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 (edited) well there is still possibility. in other games i always spend about $100 every 3 months just to get limited item set when they launch special set every 3 months. still many of other players spend more than me to get it. me and my friends try many trick to get best result for getting gambling item. some try to open the item when the server is low and some try it when the server is crowd. the result sometimes is very not logic but if you try it's works. i don't know if in SWTOR there also have some myth open the cartel pack to get best result. sometimes i wonder what if i try to open it when i clear a flash point what will i get. lol Edited December 31, 2012 by ieRAya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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