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Yeah, this game sure is losing people...


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So, last night on the Republic fleet there were 217 people on and well over 100 on Coruscant. While questing on Taris there was close to 50. Yes, boring Taris. Fifty peeps.

 

Warzones were instant pops. No exaggerating. I'd click the little icon on my minimap, choose queue solo, and the WZ would pop the second I clicked the solo button. This is on Prophecy of the Five. And because a lot of you will say pics or didn't happen, I linked a screenshot to it. Check the number in the top left hand corner. It may not look that crowded but it was. It reminded me a lot of the old Ironforge days in classic WoW. (As a tragic consequence to my gawking, Kira and I were ran over by a speeder just as I was taking the pic.)

 

Haters will always hate, but I think the reports of SWTOR's demise were greatly exaggerated.

I saw 50 on Taris, but when I went to fleet only 150is and only 1 instance. I was lucky if I ever ran across 1 other player while on Taris. Always only when I went to turn in a quest. People begged and pleaded to get 4 man heroics going on Taris. 50-60 people and it was hard for them. I did not join them. Why? Because I was busy doing my quest line and it's just not efficient to drop what I'm doing and join them due to the time it takes to travel. I didn't even queue for a FP because I don' want to have it pop while im in the middle of some underground tunnel quest and then be dropped off on Fleet afterwards.

 

The game has issues where it separates people and discourages them from grouping.

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This part is speculation. Far too much of that on these boards and I believe has done more damage to this game then is necessary. One person cherry picked a random number and now it is being parroted all over this board. We do not know how many are actually playing.....and quite frankly it was a point of irrelevance that should have never been allowed to continue on this board.

 

Let`s see...

 

http://www.vgchartz.com/game/31584/star-wars-the-old-republic/ - 2.41m total units sold

http://www.mmodata.net/ - peak at 1.7 mil subs

http://www.ign.com/articles/2012/07/31/the-old-republic-subscriptions-dip-below-1-million - EA confirms subs below 1 million and well above 500k - best estimate is 750k to 850k. Or dead on 900k, if we are to hasty generalise and assume 400k subs lost each 3 months.

 

Cherry picked random numbers, eh?

Edited by Styxx
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http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/stats

 

This site may not be perfect, but the trend is a steady decline across all servers. Just saying. There really is no arguement one can propose that doesnt suggest the game is losing subs. If you like the game stop worrying about it and enjoy it while its around. If you dont **** and jump on the GW2 train

 

/thread

Edited by Kashley
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I saw 50 on Taris, but when I went to fleet only 150is and only 1 instance. I was lucky if I ever ran across 1 other player while on Taris. Always only when I went to turn in a quest. People begged and pleaded to get 4 man heroics going on Taris. 50-60 people and it was hard for them. I did not join them. Why? Because I was busy doing my quest line and it's just not efficient to drop what I'm doing and join them due to the time it takes to travel. I didn't even queue for a FP because I don' want to have it pop while im in the middle of some underground tunnel quest and then be dropped off on Fleet afterwards.

 

The game has issues where it separates people and discourages them from grouping.

 

Exactly right. This has been a point since day one. It doesnt encourage people to group. It feels like a single player game with co-op add ons.

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PvE logins are at 99.7% of their original number (as of 6/27/2012).

RP-PvP logins are at 100.0% of their original number.

RP-PvE logins are at 120.0% of their original number, so that's a lot of growth.

PvP logins are at 81.4% of their original number, so that's a pretty big loss.

 

With all due respect to people doing the effort to get the data... you only count the destination servers... that doesn't say alot, sorry.

 

Saying "RP-PvE is up with 20%" because the destination RP-PvE is up, is very, very misleading...

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http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/stats

 

This site may not be perfect, but the trend is a steady decline across all servers. Just saying. There really is no arguement one can propose that doesnt suggest the game is losing subs. If you like the game stop worrying about it and enjoy it while its around. If you dont **** and jump on the GW2 train

 

/thread

 

Doesn't surprise me. it's been nearly 6 months since a content patch and there are or will be new games out, gw2 and mop. I doubt this game will be over 500k by time it goes f2p in November and EA/BW are contemplating charging for the next content patch. If they do charge it will be the nail in the grave for swtor.

 

The problem with game companies like most corporations is they only care about profit and their whole product, cars, games, ect are all centered around maximizing profit regardless of the quality of the end product. Companies no longer attempt to make the best product they can make, but the best product that maximizes the short term profit. That's why so many companies failed from car manufactures to game companies.

Edited by Knockerz
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http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/stats

 

This site may not be perfect, but the trend is a steady decline across all servers. Just saying. There really is no arguement one can propose that doesnt suggest the game is losing subs. If you like the game stop worrying about it and enjoy it while its around. If you dont **** and jump on the GW2 train

 

/thread

 

Yes, those stats don't mean much to me, cause they are based on whatever Bioware calls ''light'', ''medium'' and ''heavy''. No one knows what that means... For example, all servers are ALWAYS considered at least ''light''. That can mean 5 people or 100 people.

 

But even then, the numbers are down for ALL servers with more then light.

Edited by Yogol
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We are not sure that was even the peak subs. I find it hard to beleave 700k copies was sold which the buyer never did atleast try the game out.

 

Yes, that is indeed very odd... 2.4m sold, 1.7m subs max... what gives?!?

 

I don't know what they considered ''sold''. For example, in my shop, there are like 10 copies of the game on the shelves. Are those 10 considered ''sold'' for Bioware, because the shop bought them? I don't know how those numbers are counted.

 

But when Bioware says there were 1.7m subs, you can bet it weren't 2.4m.

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http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/stats

 

This site may not be perfect, but the trend is a steady decline across all servers. Just saying. There really is no arguement one can propose that doesnt suggest the game is losing subs. If you like the game stop worrying about it and enjoy it while its around. If you dont **** and jump on the GW2 train

 

/thread

 

No, not /thread really. That site measures server status, not subs. A decline in log ins might be subs dropping, but it's definately not the only possibility. With the f2p GW2 launching, I can see a lot of people trying that out for a while. Doesn't have to mean sub cancellation.

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Yes, that is indeed very odd... 2.4m sold, 1.7m subs max... what gives?!?

 

I don't know what they considered ''sold''. For example, in my shop, there are like 10 copies of the game on the shelves. Are those 10 considered ''sold'' for Bioware, because the shop bought them? I don't know how those numbers are counted.

 

But when Bioware says there were 1.7m subs, you can bet it weren't 2.4m.

 

No those don't count as sold. They don't count people who bought the game, played the free month, and then didn't sub, as subscribers. Simple as that. That's how the accounting practice works in this genre. So 700,000 people bought the game but for various reasons did not decide to subscribe.

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Yes, that is indeed very odd... 2.4m sold, 1.7m subs max... what gives?!?

 

I don't know what they considered ''sold''. For example, in my shop, there are like 10 copies of the game on the shelves. Are those 10 considered ''sold'' for Bioware, because the shop bought them? I don't know how those numbers are counted.

 

But when Bioware says there were 1.7m subs, you can bet it weren't 2.4m.

 

What about games that were exported? Wouldn't bw count those games that were bought to be resold in red zones as sold? That would make sense. Shops that imported games are second hand resellers and officially the parent company of said game would count the game as sold even though it's being imported to be resold. That would be my guess where those extra 600k copies went.

Edited by Knockerz
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No, not /thread really. That site measures server status, not subs. A decline in log ins might be subs dropping, but it's definately not the only possibility. With the f2p GW2 launching, I can see a lot of people trying that out for a while. Doesn't have to mean sub cancellation.

 

This.

 

At least the players in my guild who are currently playing gW2 to try it out, all of them have kept their TOR subs but are not logging in as frequently.

 

Again, that site has nothing to do with subs but logging in activity. If you think they are one and the same then I have no 'cure' for you :p

 

 

Personally I think that subs are much less now but that's based on a hunch, nothing more.

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With all due respect to people doing the effort to get the data... you only count the destination servers... that doesn't say alot, sorry.

 

Saying "RP-PvE is up with 20%" because the destination RP-PvE is up, is very, very misleading...

 

Scorpienne is the only person I am aware of on this forum that is doing any kind of rational analysis of population trends for the game. Please see (and understand) Scorpienne's ongoing thead on the topic before doing a drive by criticism, IMO.

 

The population is largely consolidated now on the transfer servers and Scorpienne is providing periodic trend analysis and population estimates for the different server types. It's valuable data for any discussion on what the actual population trends are. And, not surprisingly, PvP is dropping significantly for this PvE game as the PvPers explore other opportunities. And I am sure some PvE server population is doing the same because they like PvP on PvE servers. Yet the PvE population in the game remains fairly stable (which does not mean people are not off tasting GW2, since it is a largely complimentary MMO to this one).

Edited by Andryah
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I saw 50 on Taris, but when I went to fleet only 150is and only 1 instance. I was lucky if I ever ran across 1 other player while on Taris. Always only when I went to turn in a quest. People begged and pleaded to get 4 man heroics going on Taris. 50-60 people and it was hard for them. I did not join them. Why? Because I was busy doing my quest line and it's just not efficient to drop what I'm doing and join them due to the time it takes to travel. I didn't even queue for a FP because I don' want to have it pop while im in the middle of some underground tunnel quest and then be dropped off on Fleet afterwards.

 

The game has issues where it separates people and discourages them from grouping.

 

I don't see how this is just a problem with this game. I do the same in other MMORPG's because I choose too.

 

Take World of Warcraft for example.

 

Barely saw other players. Whenever I got a group quest, I dropped it because I didn't want to take the time to do it.

 

I rarely did instances because it took forever to gather the people and make it to the instance. (This is admittedly different now).

Edited by Nastynas
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I don't see how this is just a problem with this game. I do the same in other MMORPG's because I choose too.

 

Take World of Warcraft for example.

 

Barely saw other players. Whenever I got a group quest, I dropped it because I didn't want to take the time to do it.

 

I rarely did instances because it took forever to gather the people and make it to the instance. (This is admittedly different now).

 

I agree with Nastynas. This is a play style that is noticable across the MMO offering, even though MMOs offer many different features to facilitate grouping. Most players, regardless of the MMO, simply don't group anymore because the do not need to to progress, and grouping can actually slow progress in today's MMOs. Some games, like GW2 recognize this and have specific features in game to give a group like feel with no grouping at all, which will only last for a few months until the bulk of the population reaches level cap.

 

Its the player race to level cap that is the driver in most of today's player base. MMOs have to work with this, as it is what it is. In the old days of MMOs, leveling was a journey and the journey was more important then the destination for most players. Today, for most players, it's the destination (and how fast you can get there) that is most important to them.

Edited by Andryah
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The game has issues where it separates people and discourages them from grouping.

 

IMO, the only thing that encourages players to group in todays MMO player base is if grouping offers significantly faster progress in leveling or in end game rewards. It is what it is. People only group for selfish reasons for the most part, particularly PUGs (Guilds and RL friends being more of an exception to the general case however).

Edited by Andryah
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Yes, those stats don't mean much to me, cause they are based on whatever Bioware calls ''light'', ''medium'' and ''heavy''. No one knows what that means... For example, all servers are ALWAYS considered at least ''light''. That can mean 5 people or 100 people.

 

Yogol, hello there! If you'd like a thorough discussion of methods, please read the original post that those numbers are coming from.

 

The way we know how many people = light versus heavy is that people went and counted the number of players on their servers using the /who command. We have 90+ readings on the destination servers. So I can, with a defined amount of accuracy, say that each status roughly means a certain number of people.

 

With all due respect to people doing the effort to get the data... you only count the destination servers... that doesn't say alot, sorry. Saying "RP-PvE is up with 20%" because the destination RP-PvE is up, is very, very misleading...

 

How do *you* recommend getting a census of the origin servers? We had a *lot* of folks trying to figure that problem for months. We gave up. Those servers could be nobody or as much as maybe 90k players. You tell me how to figure that out and I'll happily add it to my analysis.

 

Also, I have no clear understanding of how you believe that the 20% swing in PvP and RP-PvE is "misleading"? Please do enlighten me?

 

Paige

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IMO, the only thing that encourages players to group in todays MMO player base is if grouping offers significantly faster progress in leveling or in end game rewards. It is what it is. People only group for selfish reasons for the most part, particularly PUGs (Guilds and RL friends being more of an exception to the general case however).

 

This is mostly true for me. I tend to only group with friends, and my friends aren't on much, so almost all of the game is solo for me. I wish my friends had more time to play, but they just don't.

 

I don't do most group content though because it isn't necessarily the fastest way to level (although I agree with you, if it did make levelling much much faster, I would group more). I don't group because I just got tired of the crap one has to put up with in PUGs. Of course most PUGs were fine, but there were still enough people that made me decide it just wasn't worth the loot to put up with some of the people that join PUGs. That just means one less healer or DPS (depending on my spec) to join in the group finder, but it is what it is.

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Yes, that is indeed very odd... 2.4m sold, 1.7m subs max... what gives?!?

 

I don't know what they considered ''sold''. For example, in my shop, there are like 10 copies of the game on the shelves. Are those 10 considered ''sold'' for Bioware, because the shop bought them? I don't know how those numbers are counted.

 

But when Bioware says there were 1.7m subs, you can bet it weren't 2.4m.

 

What it means is that 2.4 million boxes were sold. Only 1.7 million players subscribed after the first 30 days of freetime. So there were 700,000 copies that had a combination of not getting used / only played through the first 30 days of free time.

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1.4 will probably help if they release it someday, just like 1.3 and 1.2 did before.

What it means is that 2.4 million boxes were sold. Only 1.7 million players subscribed after the first 30 days of freetime. So there were 700,000 copies that had a combination of not getting used / only played through the first 30 days of free time.

 

A portion of those account probably were used for fraudulent action like credit farming and selling.

Not that credits are hard to get..

Edited by ElitehunterDS
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