Forbes thinks TOR is a financial disaster for EA. Your thoughts

[Aricus]

I'll just re post this as a counter that the industry is suffering, the reason IP's are suffering is companies are afraid of introducing new IP's in this generations hardware, whether that smart or short sighted is anyone guess

 

IPs are suffering because of the game themselves. Take a look at Final Fantasy. It went from a semi free-roam type of game where you could move around the map, go back to areas and see new scene or what-not to a tunnel path game, where you're forced down a path and most often cannot return to a previous area. Look at Resident Evil, it went from survival horror to action 3rd person shooter and it looks like Dead Space 3 is heading in the same direction.

 

Most RPG/Horror games are like this now days. It's like developers or companies are trying to turn an RPG/Surivial Horror, into a fast action shooter. And hope they gain the success of selling millions of copies in a day like Halo or Call of Duty.

Edited July 28, 2012 by Aricus

[TheBBP]

Sorry but MMOs don't recover once they go down the path of decline. Name an MMO that has successfully recovered it's lost subs? There is none.

 

Besides EQ2 and LoTRO? Both have made good money and have gained subscribers after dipping to lows.

[Aricus]

Besides EQ2 and LoTRO? Both have made good money and have gained subscribers after dipping to lows.

 

No they didn't regain the subs they once had. Just because they regain some "activity' from F2P model, they did not regain subs or even the activity they once had during their peak.

Edited July 28, 2012 by Aricus

[TheBBP]

No they didn't regain the subs they once had. Just because they regain some "activity' from F2P model, they did not regain subs or even the activity they once had during their peak.

 

Not having those same subs does not mean that they are not successful.

[Aricus]

Not having those same subs does not mean that they are not successful.

 

I am not talking about success. I am taking about naming an MMO that lost their peaks or a major decline and had successfully recover their loss players? You can't. There are none. So once the masses leave here (if they haven't already) there is not a good chance that they will never come back no matter what BW does to improve on the game.

Edited July 28, 2012 by Aricus

[Shingara]

No they didn't regain the subs they once had. Just because they regain some "activity' from F2P model, they did not regain subs or even the activity they once had during their first month.

 

There is only one flaw in your point, your stating that what has happened to other games must infact happen to all games, that is not the case. at one point in time people said mmos were a niche market and could never break the 1 mil mark, then it was 2 mil mark, then 3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 mark.

 

There is no telling what next week will bring never mind next year. it could be a simple game feature that is implimented that could change the whole face of the market. Space could do it, putting a spectator mode in huttball with set teams and allowing it to be an e-sport could do it.

 

For all we can all say is what I will do not what YOU will do.

Edited July 28, 2012 by Shingara

[TheBBP]

I am not talking about success. I am taking about naming an MMO that lost their peaks or start a decline and had successfully recover their loss players? You can't. There are none.

 

What does that have to do with this thread?

[Gruug]

Sorry but MMOs don't recover once they go down the path of decline. Name an MMO that has successfully recovered it's lost subs? There is none.

 

This game might be fixed but it'll only be fixed for a small niche group. Once it loses 1 million subs it won't regain it again.

 

I never said "recovered subs". All MMO's lose subs in the first year. ALL. Name one that didn't. If you wish to discuss "possiblities" of regaining subs then you are changing the theme of my thread. I have no idea why people decide to un-sub. Some might be because they are unhappy with the game. Some might be because they are new to the MMO genre and once they get so far they feel they have beat the game and move on. Others might just being having a hard time paying a sub in this economy. Who knows for sure. It is all speculation.

 

What I commented on was that I think SWTOR was a good MMO. Being a veteran of many MMO from launch onward, I just made the observation that all MMO go through the first year of growing pains. INCLUDING lost subs that are never made back up. That is not to say that new people do not sub or that former players don't re-sub...because they will and do. Never in the numbers that they had at launch obviously but not likely to the point where the game is shuttered. Very few MMO's ever die. Some have but not many.

[Aricus]

There is only one flaw in your point, your stating that what has happened to other games must infact happen to all games, that is not the case. at one point in time people said mmos were a niche market and could never break the 1 mil mark, then it was 2 mil mark, then 3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 mark.

 

There is no telling what next week will bring. it could be a simply game feature that is implimented that could change the whole face of the market. Space could do it, putting a spectator mode in huttball with set teams and allowing it to be an e-sport could do it.

 

For all we can all say is what I will do not what YOU will do.

 

MMO's are a niche market. When you account for all gamers in the market, MMOs have a Small small very small audience. There are probably about 15 or 20 million tops of MMO players. Where are the gamer community is probably around 200-300 million if not more.

 

Once again in my previous argument once MMO players leave they don't come back. Name an MMO that has successfully brought back their playerbase to peak levels, or even close to peak levels. WoW hasn't even done it but we'll see if it happens when they release their new expac.

Edited July 28, 2012 by Aricus

[Ensquire]

WoW....talk about a stretch. So...Some random blogger on Forbes, Thinks a tiny portion of EA's portfolio is whats bringing down EA? This is a troll post and a half...fail one at that too. A random Blogger is not Forbes

this is from october 2010

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2010-10-13-laid-off-ea-dev-old-republic-is-a-joke

This is from june 13 2012

http://fronttowardsgamer.com/2011/06/13/star-wars-the-old-republic-reaches-the-500-million-mark-ea-financial-disaster-inevitable/

This is in May

http://www.digitaltrends.com/gaming/star-wars-the-old-republic-subscriber-numbers-fall-faster-that-lasso-legged-at-ats/

 

These are not from Forbes either

 

And its obvious that you never check the original link either, because they show a link between subs and falling stocks as well

 

quote from link number 2:

 

“EA could be in a very difficult position six months after launch if the game isn’t doing the kind of numbers that it’s needing it to do, they say, “Well, do we just write off half a billion dollars or do we keep throwing money at this thing and hope that we can turn it around?”

Edited July 28, 2012 by Ensquire

[Aricus]

I never said "recovered subs". All MMO's lose subs in the first year. ALL. Name one that didn't. If you wish to discuss "possiblities" of regaining subs then you are changing the theme of my thread. I have no idea why people decide to un-sub. Some might be because they are unhappy with the game. Some might be because they are new to the MMO genre and once they get so far they feel they have beat the game and move on. Others might just being having a hard time paying a sub in this economy. Who knows for sure. It is all speculation.

 

What I commented on was that I think SWTOR was a good MMO. Being a veteran of many MMO from launch onward, I just made the observation that all MMO go through the first year of growing pains. INCLUDING lost subs that are never made back up. That is not to say that new people do not sub or that former players don't re-sub...because they will and do. Never in the numbers that they had at launch obviously but not likely to the point where the game is shuttered. Very few MMO's ever die. Some have but not many.

 

WoW didn't lose their subs in their first year therefore you first statement is debunked.

 

I a not talking about anything else in your post because they do not pertain to my argument. I don't necessarily disagree with what you're saying. However, my argument still stands... No MMO that lose their peak has ever regain their subs or even came close to it.

 

Edit: You did comment that SWTOR was a good MMO but you also commented that if BW made changes then the game can grow again. But if you look at MMO history, MMOs don't tend to regain their subs once the exodus begins.

Edited July 28, 2012 by Aricus

[Shingara]

MMO's are a niche market. When you account for all gamers in the market, MMOs have a Small small very small audience. There are probably about 15 or 20 million tops of MMO players. Where are the gamer community is probably around 200-300 million if not more.

 

Once again in my previous argument once MMO players leave they don't come back. Name an MMO that has successfully brought back their playerbase to peak levels, or even close to peak levels. WoW hasn't even done it. We'll see if it happens when they release their new expac.

 

MMOs arnt niche anymore. the gaming market is made up by all the same types of players it just what is in the game that draws them to it. For all we know MOP is going to be an epic failure and the last straw for alot of people or bliz will do something silly with the black market. Those players could goto tsw,gw2 here or any other mmos or drop out of the mmo market all together but those coming here would increase the numbers playing swtor.

 

Nothing is set in stone, and mmos are always moving forwards, new players come into the genre all the time as others leave it so the demographic is never stood still. We do not know if 1.3 was the peak numbers as alot of what people wanted in swtor wasnt in the game when those numbers were taking.

 

GW2 is about to roll out, MOP is about to roll out and TSW has just come out, We know that the bulk of the people who left are waiting for or were pulled to those and most of that bulk are migrators who go where what they want to play is in the game. So dependant on what those games do and this game does is what defines as the basis for understand a little of what the peak shall be.

 

So in real terms we shall not know where the peak shall settle to until atleast febuary next year when the dust has settled on those and where this game is development wise at that point in time.

 

Also to your point the boards and ingame chat are flooded with peeps who have come back that defunks your point about once people leave they never return.

Edited July 28, 2012 by Shingara

[Alavastre]

I would be hard to say if SWTOR is a success or not, but it's not a disaster. You design MMO's for the long haul, so 6 months out of the gate can you really call it a failure? I don't think you can.

 

Problem with this game is EA. Their dumb comments about the game and just brushing it aside. People think Star Wars = best of everything should double WoW. These are unreasonable expectations. The F2P crap was taken out of context, as they meant 1-15 trial accounts. But they are also looking at all avenues I'm sure. That is what a good business is supposed to do.

 

People just want the game they like for Free. They will be disappointed when that never really pans out. Once GW2 comes out, and people realize it's not an incarnation of Jesus Christ, things will calm down.

[Typeslice]

this is from october 2010

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2010-10-13-laid-off-ea-dev-old-republic-is-a-joke

This is from june 13 2012

http://fronttowardsgamer.com/2011/06/13/star-wars-the-old-republic-reaches-the-500-million-mark-ea-financial-disaster-inevitable/

This is in May

http://www.digitaltrends.com/gaming/star-wars-the-old-republic-subscriber-numbers-fall-faster-that-lasso-legged-at-ats/

 

These are not from Forbes either

 

And its obvious that you never check the original link either, because they show a link between subs and falling stocks as well

 

quote from link number 2:

 

“EA could be in a very difficult position six months after launch if the game isn’t doing the kind of numbers that it’s needing it to do, they say, “Well, do we just write off half a billion dollars or do we keep throwing money at this thing and hope that we can turn it around?”

 

You honestly think that there is a direct correlation between falling subs and the stock price?

Edited July 28, 2012 by Typeslice

[Lt_Latency]

MMO's are a niche market. When you account for all gamers in the market, MMOs have a Small small very small audience. There are probably about 15 or 20 million tops of MMO players. Where are the gamer community is probably around 200-300 million if not more.

 

Once again in my previous argument once MMO players leave they don't come back. Name an MMO that has successfully brought back their playerbase to peak levels, or even close to peak levels. WoW hasn't even done it but we'll see if it happens when they release their new expac.

 

WoW goes up and down all the time.

 

Every time a new MMO comes out they take a huge hit, then recover. WoW is just old now. They are just riding wow ride out it's life cycle while the work on new engines for their next attempt.

Edited July 28, 2012 by Lt_Latency

[Aricus]

MMOs arnt niche anymore. the gaming market is made up by all the same types of players it just what is in the game thatb draws them to it. For all we know MOP is going to be an epic failure and the last straw for alot of people or bliz will do something silly with the black market. Those players could goto tsw,gw2 here or any other mmos or drop out of the mmo market all together but those coming here would increase the numbers playing swtor.

 

Nothing is set in stone, and mmos are always moving forwards, new players come into the genre all the time as others leave it so the demographic is never stood still. We do not know if 1.3 was the peak numbers as alot of what people wanted in wow wasnt in the game when those numbers were taking.

 

GW2 is about to roll out, MOP is about to roll out and TSW has just come out, We know that the bulk of the people who left are waiting for or were pulled to those and most of that bulk are migrators who go where what they want to play is in the game. So dependant on what those games do and this game does is what defines as the basis for understand a little of what the peak shall be.

 

So in real terms we shall not know where the peak shall settle to until atleast febuary next year when the dust has settled on those and where this game is development wise at that point in time.

 

Sorry dude MMOs are a niche. Most gamers don't play MMOs because of their structure. If you removed everything all the aesthetics and etc, MMOs are about one thing only, Gear Grinds. Just to progress you have to get gear, most people do not like that idea many rather progress through their characters rather than gear. It's why the so call end game in these themepark MMO's are always lacking because it's nothing but a pointless gear grind. It's why the MMO community consist more of alts and those who level than experience the end game. Why most MMO players don't really raid or participate in end game content. Why most newer MMOs experience a decline of their player base within the first month(s) of release (because the players hit the end of the road of character progression and now forced to do gear progression and leave).

Edited July 28, 2012 by Aricus

[Aricus]

WoW goes up and down all the time.

 

Every time a new MMO comes out they take a huge hit, then recover. WoW is just old now. They are just riding wow ride out it's life cycle while the work on new engines for their next attempt.

 

WoW never had a steady decline up until the end of 2011. Since then their numbers have been going up or stabilizing. Right now it's stabilized at 10 million users but still down from their peak of 12 million.

Edited July 28, 2012 by Aricus

[Typeslice]

this is from october 2010

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2010-10-13-laid-off-ea-dev-old-republic-is-a-joke

This is from june 13 2012

http://fronttowardsgamer.com/2011/06/13/star-wars-the-old-republic-reaches-the-500-million-mark-ea-financial-disaster-inevitable/

This is in May

http://www.digitaltrends.com/gaming/star-wars-the-old-republic-subscriber-numbers-fall-faster-that-lasso-legged-at-ats/

 

These are not from Forbes either

 

And its obvious that you never check the original link either, because they show a link between subs and falling stocks as well

 

quote from link number 2:

 

“EA could be in a very difficult position six months after launch if the game isn’t doing the kind of numbers that it’s needing it to do, they say, “Well, do we just write off half a billion dollars or do we keep throwing money at this thing and hope that we can turn it around?”

 

Those are all video game sites. when did video game writers become the paradigm for financial analysis?

[jarjarloves]

first rule of fiance.

 

Never listen to money magazines or shows.

[kevlarto]

Even with a profit, some profit are not good enough, you have to compare the % of profit to other games of this type, if they are raking lets say 50% profit and Tor is making 5% profit, then in the eyes of a comapny like EA thats not good enough.

 

I remember a chain of resturant called China Garden, they were owned by the same folks that own Olive Garden, The china Garden resturants made a profit, but the profit was never close to the profit made by Olive Garden, so they closed them down, I guess if trends would have changed this low profit resturant could have went into the red instead of the black. Big coporations, base so much on metrics and trends and projections it's not even funny..

Edited July 28, 2012 by kevlarto

[Shingara]

Sorry dude MMOs are a niche. Most gamers don't play MMOs because of their structure. If you removed everything all the aesthetics and etc, MMOs are about one thing only, Gear Grinds. Just to progress you have to get gear, most people do not like that idea many rather progress through their characters rather than gear. It's why the so call end game in these themepark MMO's are always lacking because it's nothing but a pointless gear grind. It's why the MMO community consist more of alts and those who level than experience the end game. Why most MMO players don't really raid or participate in end game content. Why most newer MMOs experience a decline of their player base within the first month(s) of release (because the players hit the end of the road of character progression and now forced to do gear profession and leave).

 

A market that supports 20+ million players is not niche, gearing isnt limited to mmos, fps have them too, rpgs. And mmos are not like stand alone games. MMO's are living breathing beasts always moving forwards, always developing and its the mmos that do not develope after release that go stagnent. The ones that push forward in development hit a peak and stay there or stabalize then shoot up and the rough guide for that peak is 1-3 year old.

 

All mmos get a slight dip after release simply by people who buy it to try it and are predominantly hoppers. These boards and ingame chat is full of people who left and then came back, WoW suffered from the exact same thing but got a leg up from the soe fallout espec in terms of the MXO debacle.

 

Its also unjust to state that these passed months are anything but fluctating violently. We have MOP throw its doors open for beta, gw2 threw its doors open for beta, TWS threw its doors open for beta and D3 was givven away to wow players. Everything i just stated there was free gaming directed straight at the mmo market so obviously your gonna have huge migrations of mmo players moving from one to the other.

 

You have wow players who are locked into annual passes, They bought this game with a few months subs but they are mainly in mop beta and are going todo mop. The fact they bought this is a sign they arnt to pleased with wow anymore and want something fresh.

 

So in this market temprement the 1st few months mean nothing beyond the fact that there is alot of free things todo.

Edited July 28, 2012 by Shingara

[Aricus]

Even with a profit, some profit are not good enough, you have to compare the % of profit to other games of this type, if they are raking lets say 50% profit and Tor is making 5% profit, then in the eyes of a comapny like EA thats not good enough.

 

I remember a chain of resteraunts called China Garden, they were owned by the same folks that own Olive Garden, The china Garden resturants made a profit, but the profit was never close to the profit made by Olive Garden, so they closed them down, I guess if trends would have changed this low profit resteraunt could have went into the red instead of the black. Big coporations, base so much on metrics and trends and projections it's not even funny..

 

You are quite right about that.

[Ensquire]

Those are all video game sites. when did video game writers become the paradigm for financial analysis?

 

... wait for it

 

http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-05-07/industries/31606454_1_ea-sales-active-subscribers-colin-sebastian

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-17989756

 

There you go kid

Edited July 28, 2012 by Ensquire

[Shingara]

... wait for it

 

http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-05-07/industries/31606454_1_ea-sales-active-subscribers-colin-sebastian

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-17989756

 

There you go kid

 

you should really stop insulting peeps and go read the investors call that states they had an increase in active subscribers to 1.3 mil.

[Nearbo]

Forbes thinks this games is a complete financial disaster. With loss in subs, the threat of Free-2-play on the horizon, are you sticking with game past the six month mark? what are your thoughts?

With current layoffs can TOR developers now produce content at a pace to keep players happy?

(I know they say they can, Because they will never say they can't)

 

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2012/07/19/five-reasons-ea-is-in-decline/

 

Note: how this game performs financially has a trickle down effect on EA's overall stock

 

Edit: New links showing reputable business site stating the link between TOR and electronic arts stock

http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-05-07/industries/31606454_1_ea-sales-active-subscribers-colin-sebastian

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-17989756

 

http://www.computerandvideogames.com/332913/ea-shares-drop-after-analyst-expresses-old-republic-concerns/

http://www.videogamer.com/pc/star_wars_the_old_republic/news/ea_stock_drops_3_after_star_wars_the_old_republic_doubts.html

 

Oh, they are completely correct by stating this game is a financial disaster.