Estimation of average concurrent logins (top servers)

[Scorpienne]

Still not going to refine the methodology to not undercount 50s, huh?

 

Would love to! What's your system?

 

With the caveat that I'm trying very hard to make the survey not a total pain in the rear for people. Hard enough to get people to take the survey as-is now.

 

 

Paige

Edited August 27, 2012 by Scorpienne

[Scorpienne]

Another Monday update! Feels like time is flying by... or maybe that's because my parents were in town for the weekend!

 

Mostly, the ratios of how many people are where and when and doing what haven't changed BUT this is the first time that RP-PvE is bigger than PvP (but only by a smidge, 24.2% of total logins for RP-PvE vs 24% of logins for PvP). Also, much like the last week of July, we experienced about a 4% drop in numbers over the last week. The last week of the month must be when subs run out, or something.

 

Date Logins Growth

6/27/2012 32,834

6/29/2012 34,310 4.5%

7/2/2012 35,383 3.1%

7/10/2012 35,160 -0.6%

7/16/2012 35,853 2.0%

7/23/2012 35,827 -0.1%

7/30/2012 34,490 -3.7%

8/5/2012 34,173 -0.9%

8/13/2012 33,872 -0.9%

8/21/2012 33,579 -0.9%

8/27/2012 32,311 -3.8%

 

 

Full details in the OP.

 

 

Paige

[Scorpienne]

Oh, and... some things I noticed while responding to another post...

 

We have had some population declines, but look more closely at the numbers as of 8/27/2012. Who did we lose?

 

LINK HERE, go to the "SUMMARY STATS" tab and look to the right for the math.

 

PvE logins are at 99.7% of their original number (as of 6/27/2012).

RP-PvP logins are at 100.0% of their original number.

RP-PvE logins are at 120.0% of their original number, so that's a lot of growth.

PvP logins are at 81.4% of their original number, so that's a pretty big loss.

 

So yeah, we've lost some folks that have left for greener PvP pastures.

 

We've gained a *LOT* of RPers - Yay! In fact the biggest server these days is Beg Colony (US PST RP-PvE).

 

The PvE crowd is as big as it ever was (and it's 48% of the total pop).

 

RP-PvP is so small (3.8% of the total pop) and they're not going anywhere.

 

So I think that it's perhaps possible that maybe the "content locusts" have come and gone, and what we're left with are the people who enjoy the game. Most of those people (like 99% of my guild of over 100+ people) wouldn't come onto these forums in a full CDC BL4 containment suit. That's one reason that the forums are so full of negativity.

 

 

Paige

[Trenter]

Go RP!

[Scorpienne]

Go RP!

 

100% You said it, big guy. This game was billed as a "4th Pillar", story based MMO. I know a lot of folks who are happy as clams just levelling and don't give a rat's bottom about the endgame or PvP. Sometimes they'll team up for heroics or flashpoints but that's an occasional thing. I think that might be the core constituency of the game. A lot of these folks are here for the RP specifically, or are on RP servers because they think the social climate is nicer there.

 

 

 

Paige

[Archeonn]

I believe when they increased the server capacities, they didn't change Begeren Colony. I've been looking at the populations of Ebon Hawk and Begeren Colony over several months because I have characters on both. When Begeren is at heavy, there is only 1/2 to 2/3 the population of Ebon Hawk at normal. This is from logging on both servers and doing a /who for level 50s and fleet. If you are only monitoring light/normal/heavy from Torstatus without logging on and checking actual population, then Begeren data will not be accurate.

[Scorpienne]

I believe when they increased the server capacities, they didn't change Begeren Colony. I've been looking at the populations of Ebon Hawk and Begeren Colony over several months because I have characters on both. When Begeren is at heavy, there is only 1/2 to 2/3 the population of Ebon Hawk at normal. This is from logging on both servers and doing a /who for level 50s and fleet. If you are only monitoring light/normal/heavy from Torstatus without logging on and checking actual population, then Begeren data will not be accurate.

 

Archaeonn,

 

If you'd read the OP, you'd see I've been diligently trying to collect as much actual census data as humanly possible.

 

I'd love to have your contribution, if you have time to census the servers.

 

LINK TO SURVEY

LINK TO DATA

 

Paige

[Skyzen]

I believe when they increased the server capacities, they didn't change Begeren Colony. I've been looking at the populations of Ebon Hawk and Begeren Colony over several months because I have characters on both. When Begeren is at heavy, there is only 1/2 to 2/3 the population of Ebon Hawk at normal. This is from logging on both servers and doing a /who for level 50s and fleet. If you are only monitoring light/normal/heavy from Torstatus without logging on and checking actual population, then Begeren data will not be accurate.

 

I have played SWTOR since early access. I originally rolled on the Begeren Colony. My current primary server is now the Harbinger.

 

They did change the population classification for Begeren Colony. Last night the server was showing 38 people on the Imperial Fleet. and server status of STANDARD. The Harbinger had nearly 4 times that population with a classification of STANDARD.

 

A few months ago, a population that low would certainly shown up as LIGHT. If you are basing trends solely on server classifications from BW's server status page, I have to reiterate that it is very flawed. Sever status classifications are not consistent with population values between the servers.

 

Take a look at my previous post.

Edited August 27, 2012 by Skyzen

[CosmicKat]

One thing I've never been able to figure out...

 

Back in the first year of Everquest they were claiming subscriber numbers of only 150,000ish and yet I seem to remember the worlds being far more populated, and that was with gigantically larger areas than games have nowadays and multiple areas per level range.

 

Was SOE vastly under reporting subscriber numbers? Were players playing a lot more often? Are companies nowadays grossly over representing their subscribers?

 

Just based on how "busy" EQ seemed with 150k, I can't imagine the TOR numbers, in comparison, are anywhere near the numbers they claim. The same would apply to any current MMO's claimed subscriber numbers.

[Trenter]

Was SOE vastly under reporting subscriber numbers? Were players playing a lot more often? Are companies nowadays grossly over representing their subscribers?

 

Or are the companies reporting in the correct figures and you are just wrong in remembering EQ being a more populated game?

Edited August 27, 2012 by Trenter

[CosmicKat]

Or are the companies reporting in the correct figures and you are just wrong in remembering EQ being a more populated game?

 

It's possible my recollections are wrong. However, when you think about how TOR has one zone per 10 level range, and it is rare to see 100 people in any of them (usually much lower), something just doesn't add up.

 

I don't mean to single out TOR in this regard, I think the fantasy subcriber number phenomenon is an industry-wide thing. For example, the profit Blizzard would be seeing from their claimed numbers would be in the mega-uber blockbuster movie range. If that were in fact true, there would be far more attempts to duplicate that success than we see. I'd bet Blizzard themselves would have a dozen WoW clones running.

[Andryah]

For example, the profit Blizzard would be seeing from their claimed numbers would be in the mega-uber blockbuster movie range. If that were in fact true, there would be far more attempts to duplicate that success than we see. I'd bet Blizzard themselves would have a dozen WoW clones running.

 

~7 Million of Blizzards "subs" are not actually subs, they are time based pay to access accounts in Asia. Once the accounts are opened, they are active accounts. The revenue generated is much much lower (per account, average) then the paid subscriptions revenue in NA and EU subs.

[Scorpienne]

So, unsuprisingly... there's a dip in population numbers this week. With warring guilds and kung-fu pandas, that's to be expected. The last two weeks show about a 7% drop... the long term numbers look like this...

 

Date Logins Growth

6/27/2012 32,834

6/29/2012 34,310 4.5%

7/2/2012 35,383 3.1%

7/10/2012 35,160 -0.6%

7/16/2012 35,853 2.0%

7/23/2012 35,827 -0.1%

7/30/2012 34,490 -3.7%

8/5/2012 34,173 -0.9%

8/13/2012 33,872 -0.9%

8/21/2012 33,579 -0.9%

8/27/2012 32,311 -3.8%

9/4/2012 30,133 -6.7%

 

 

It's entirely probable that some of these folks are out there enjoying the new hotness - or are busy going back to school - and will rejoin us in the future. Some of them won't, of course. However, with City of Heroes shutting down, we may be picking up more folks from that, and of course, from F2P down the road.

 

I'll be here, slinging the actual real numbers. :-)

 

 

Paige

[Liquidacid]

the most surprising thing to me is that you found that the Rep to Imp ratio is overall 51% to 49%. maybe I'm imagining it or maybe it's just the server I'm on but there always seems to be a lot more Imps around than there ever are Rep Edited September 4, 2012 by Liquidacid

[Scorpienne]

the most surprising thing to me is that you found that the Rep to Imp ratio is overall 51% to 49%. maybe I'm imagining it or maybe it's just the server I'm on but there always seems to be a lot more Imps around than there ever are Rep

 

It was stunning to me, too. I'm mostly a Rep player and I *always* felt out-numbered and out-gunned by the Imps. :-) I *totally* feel where you're coming from. Also, some servers have really different ratios... Jedi Cov was about 58% rep, for instance. Maybe your server is atypical? What server are you on?

 

Let's get the actual data and talk real numbers. Would you mind filling out the rep and imp sides of the survey a few times during peak hours over the next couple of weeks? Can you get some of your friends to do the same?

 

-LINK TO SURVEY-

 

 

Paige

Edited September 4, 2012 by Scorpienne

[Liquidacid]

It was stunning to me, too. I'm mostly a Rep player and I *always* felt out-numbered and out-gunned by the Imps. :-) I *totally* feel where you're coming from. Also, some servers have really different ratios... Jedi Cov was about 58% rep, for instance. Maybe your server is atypical? What server are you on?

 

Let's get the actual data and talk real numbers. Would you mind filling out the rep and imp sides of the survey a few times during peak hours over the next couple of weeks? Can you get some of your friends to do the same?

 

-LINK TO SURVEY-

 

 

Paige

 

Corellian Run is where I spend most of my time now a days

 

and ya I'll grab that link and give it to a few of my friends and tell them to do it

[Scorpienne]

We've seen another week of (expected) losses given the competition from other games. Our total estimated population of active players is 28,253, which is a -6.2% loss from last week and a -14% loss from 6/27/2012.

 

Details in the OP.

 

In general, the PvP servers have dropped the most, and the RP-PvE servers have grown. Here's a comparison of today's numbers vs. 6/27/2012.

 

PvE 87% of 6/27/2012 population (lost 13%)

PvP 71% of 6/27/2012 population (lost 29%)

RP PvE 106% of 6/27/2012 population (grew 6%)

RP PvP 88% of 6/27/2012 population (lost 12%)

 

Paige

Edited September 10, 2012 by Scorpienne

[Andryah]

We've seen another week of (expected) losses given the competition from other games. Our total estimated population of active players is 28,253, which is a -6.2% loss from last week and a -14% loss from 6/27/2012.

 

Details in the OP.

 

In general, the PvP servers have dropped the most, and the RP-PvE servers have grown. Here's a comparison of today's numbers vs. 6/27/2012.

 

PvE 87% of 6/27/2012 population (lost 13%)

PvP 71% of 6/27/2012 population (lost 29%)

RP PvE 106% of 6/27/2012 population (grew 6%)

RP PvP 88% of 6/27/2012 population (lost 12%)

 

Paige

 

The only thing surprising here to me post-GW2 launch is that RP-PvP has not suffered more losses. In fact, the RP numbers show there is a persistence/growth for RP in the game (as I think the RP PvP losses are offset some with new players, similar to what appears for RP PvE).

[Scorpienne]

I completely agree with you. RP-PvE did suffer losses, but their retention is pretty solid.

 

Part of that is because GW2 is (debatably) percieved (by some) as a PvP-focussed game, not necesarily a RP-focussed game. SWTOR is billed as an RP centric game because of the IP and because... Bioware. That might explain a lot of it. Another potential contributing factor is that RP folks can sometimes amuse themselves regardless of what's going on in and around the game.

 

As an RPer myself, I found that I have levelled quite slowly. I don't know if that's common of if there's any way for us to measure progression speed among the population segments. If RPers level more slowly, that might also explain their retention.

[CosmicKat]

I completely agree with you. RP-PvE did suffer losses, but their retention is pretty solid.

 

Part of that is because GW2 is (debatably) percieved (by some) as a PvP-focussed game, not necesarily a RP-focussed game. SWTOR is billed as an RP centric game because of the IP and because... Bioware. That might explain a lot of it. Another potential contributing factor is that RP folks can sometimes amuse themselves regardless of what's going on in and around the game.

 

As an RPer myself, I found that I have levelled quite slowly. I don't know if that's common of if there's any way for us to measure progression speed among the population segments. If RPers level more slowly, that might also explain their retention.

 

I'm an RPer and I level slowly too, intentionally. I've always hated "endgame" content in every MMO I've played and PvP isn't my thing. This is the first MMO I've ever played that it is actually hard to slow your levelling in. I'm also a casual player time-wise and my levelling normally slows to a crawl in the 30's of most MMO's, here I can get a level an hour if I try.

[Jett-Rinn]

The only thing surprising here to me post-GW2 launch is that RP-PvP has not suffered more losses. In fact, the RP numbers show there is a persistence/growth for RP in the game (as I think the RP PvP losses are offset some with new players, similar to what appears for RP PvE).

 

We actually had a lot of disenchanted GW2 players come back to our guild over the past week, we filled the vacancies and now have a much bigger guild than we anticipated, other guilds are having the same issue on my server....GW2 just wasn't the behemoth that the Zealots made it out to be, not only did it not effect WOW, it really didn't even effect TOR.

[LordArtemis]

So that means, depending on sub numbers at the moment, as many as 100k players may have jumped ship. That is not very encouraging even with the highest hopes IMO.

[Comstrike]

I'm seeing the post GW2 hangover start to develop. Though that is in LOTRO. Most of our SWTOR are simply taking the time off until F2P. Most are RP'ers, and frankly there isn't anything that requires a subscriptions so far. We figure on being pretty full in all three of our guilds in-game.

 

I just don't think Bioware/EA will really grasp where the heart of the hold-outs in this game lays.

[chuixupu]

There hasn't been new material in TOR since April. Even the most dedicated players I know are getting bored.

As a side note, I'm not really big on Gw2. It's ok to play every now and then but it isn't' "my game".

 

And it is true that MANY people unsubbed and are waiting for F2P. I noticed the biggest hit come right at the point where the 6 month subber's time ended.

 

I am a bit concerned about where they want the game's focus to be. I think the people who are most loyal to this game like it for the original vision - the story. I get the feeling there's a divide with both fans and the developers there where that and end game MMO content are fighting against one another. This is an MMO and I like doing end-game and I agree that it is lacking there, but more than anything I want more story content - I'm willing to wait for it, I am not willing to see it pushed aside entirely just to speed up more warzones and operations.

 

Anyway, I do think we'll see numbers jump up once F2P goes live. I'm also curious to see how the release of MOP affects things.

[Scorpienne]

We actually had a lot of disenchanted GW2 players come back to our guild over the past week, we filled the vacancies and now have a much bigger guild than we anticipated, other guilds are having the same issue on my server....GW2 just wasn't the behemoth that the Zealots made it out to be, not only did it not effect WOW, it really didn't even effect TOR.

 

That's great to hear, J-R! Glad to hear that y'all are doing well. :-D