Estimation of average concurrent logins (top servers)

[Tiaa]

Thanks for the time you spent putting this together.

 

Server transfers were a good move.

[Scorpienne]

Okay... the OP has been completely revised and altered as was discssed above - reposted here for your convienience.

 

Also, links to PDFs of graphs and tables, 'cause that's how I roll.

 

=================================================================

 

TL;DR VERSION - READ BELOW TO SEE HOW I GOT THESE NUMBERS AND SOME IMPORTANT THINGS TO CONSIDER WHEN LOOKING AT THEM

 

UPDATED 6/27/2012 (for 06/13-06/27)

 

These numbers represent the average number of simultaneous concurrent logins on the top "destination" servers over the past two weeks. This isn't the number of subscribers, or number of characters, it's an estimate of how many people are actually logged in at once.

 

Tomb of Freedon Nadd (PvP EUR English) Avg Logins ≈ 1,811

The Harbinger (PvE US West) Avg Logins ≈ 1,737

Drooga's Pleasure Barge (PvE US West) Avg Logins ≈ 1,729

The Bastion (PvP US West) Avg Logins ≈ 1,671

Prophecy of the Five (PvP US East) Avg Logins ≈ 1,638

The Ebon Hawk (RP PvE US East) Avg Logins ≈ 1,548

The Fatman (PvP US East) Avg Logins ≈ 1,515

Jedi Covenant (PvE US East) Avg Logins ≈ 1,482

Canderous Ordo (PvE US East) Avg Logins ≈ 1,457

The Red Eclipse (PvE EUR English) Avg Logins ≈ 1,441

The Shadowlands (PvE US East) Avg Logins ≈ 1,400

Jung Ma (RP PvP US East) Avg Logins ≈ 1,284

The Jedi Tower (PvE EUR German) Avg Logins ≈ 1,276

Begeren Colony (RP PvE US West) Avg Logins ≈ 1,201

Mantle of the Force (PvE EUR French) Avg Logins ≈ 1,193

Corellian Run (PvE US East) Avg Logins ≈ 1,177

Jar'Kai Sword (PvP EUR German) Avg Logins ≈ 1,168

Darth Nihilus (PvP EUR French) Avg Logins ≈ 1,168

The Progenitor (RP PvE EUR English) Avg Logins ≈ 1,119

Nightmare Lands (PvE EUR English) Avg Logins ≈ 1,111

T3-M4 (PvE EUR German) Avg Logins ≈ 1,036

Vanjervalis Chain (RP PvE EUR German) Avg Logins ≈ 1,003

Dalborra (PvE APAC) Avg Logins ≈ 937

Gav Daragon (RP PvE APAC) Avg Logins ≈ 921

Battle Meditation (RP PvE EUR French) Avg Logins ≈ 904

Master Dar'Nala (PvP APAC) Avg Logins ≈ 863

 

In general, on the destination servers surveyed, the Rep to Imp ratio is overall 52% to 48%.

 

Level 50 characters are about 35% of the population. Level 1-10 characters are usually under 10%. The other level bands are vary around 15% each.

 

During peak hours, average logins on the destination servers are about 1800 people (varies by server and by time).

 

 

1. I'M DOING THIS BECAUSE I'M INTERESTED

 

Originally, this exercise was to try and predict the path of server transfer. Now, that process is mostly done, I'm monitoring the population out of simple observational curiousity.

 

2. TORSTATUS AVERAGES LAST 2 WEEKS OF SERVER STATUS FROM SWTOR

 

Torstatus (http://www.torstatus.net) is a program that checks the server load status page (http://www.swtor.com/server-status) every 5 minutes 24 hours a day 7 days a week, since the game started, and records the results in a database. The DB then records Light as 1, Standard as 2, Heavy as 3, Very Heavy as 4, and Full as 5. Every hour it calculates the average of all of those recordings for the last 14 days and reports that number as "ø" for each server on the Torstatus webpage.

 

So when you see a phi value on Torstatus, that means that is an average of it's server status for that server taken every 5 minutes for 2 weeks.

 

3. SERVER STATUS CAN BE CORRELATED TO # OF LOGINS

 

Then a lot of generous folks from the community went to our destination servers and counted the number of logged in characters and compared that to server status (SURVEY HERE, DATA HERE). As of today, we have 45 measurements among the destination servers. So far, our data says that:

 

The average LIGHT destination server has 615 concurrent logins (range is 199-880)

 

The average STANDARD destination server has 1,441 concurrent logins (range is 988-2,516)

 

The average HEAVY destination server has 2,263 concurrent logins (range is 930-3,082)

 

The average VERY HEAVY destination server has 3,408 concurrent logins (range is 3,316-3,531)

 

The average FULL destination server has 3,527 concurrent logins (range is 3,166-3,708)

 

Clearly the data has some variability in it, as the range of server loads to number of concurrent logins can be pretty wide. If you look at his data, you can see that sometimes a heavy destination server has under 1,000 people on it and sometimes it has over 3.000 people on it. Same kind of range (or more) for the other server statuses. Part of this is because people log on and log off while we are /who-ing the population, and part of this is because different servers might have different population levels and/or Bioware may alter those population levels. (So standard might be 1,500 on one server and 1,000 on a different server, or 1,500 today and 1,000 a month ago - we don't know.)

 

4. USING TORSTATUS AND CORRELATION OF SERVER STATUS-TO-LOGINS TO ESTIMATE LOGINS ON ALL DESTINATION SERVERS

 

We can use the Torstatus phil values and our estimates of the correlation of server load status to concurrent logins to estimate the number of concurrent logins in all of the destination servers.

 

If Φ is exactly equal to a whole number, then use the average value for that status level.

 

If Φ is between two whole numbers

multiply the decimal times the higher status average population

multiply 1 - the decimal times the lower status average population

 

Φ = 2.8

20% at status 2 (0.20 x 1,441 = 288)

80% at status 3 (0.80 x 2,263 = 1,810)

Estimated concurrent logins = 288 + 1,810 = 2098 people logged in

 

Φ = 1.3

70% at status 1 (0.70 x 615 = 431)

30% at status 2 (0.3 x 1,441 = 432)

Estimated concurrent logins = 431 + 432 = 863 people logged in

 

If the decimal of Φ is equal to 0.50 then the server spends 50% of its time at each status.

 

Math is here - you're welcome to look at it yourself and see if you can find a better way to analyze this data. You'll also see tabs for previous analyses as well as summary tables for total and average populations by server type and region and a tab with transfer info.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aregkvys5QFodDlvU05lQ3o2S3ZrYU9SYjRwM29OSnc#gid=12

 

That means if you take the numbers from Torstatus representing the average population over the last two weeks for the destination servers you end up with the list above.

 

5. CAVEATS - LOOKING AT 24 HR AVERAGE, LOGINS DOESN'T PREDICT SUBSCRIBERS, AND EXCLUDING ORIGIN SERVERS

 

5A 24 Hour average doesn't equal prime-time logins.

The catch here is realizing that this estimate is based on a 14 day average status, so that's dead slack times and peak times. The theoretical average population UNDERESTIMATES the peak population and OVERESTIMATES the off-peak population. You might login at prime time with a queue and realize your server has 3x? 4x? 5x? as many players as the list above indicates. That's to be expected.

 

5B Logins are much less total number of players

Keep in mind this is the average number of people logged in - it's probable that not every player is logged in all the time. For instance, if I say that there are 600 people, on average, logged into server X, in real life that might mean:

 

400 Stay at home parents login at noon and logout at 4.

600 School kids login at 4 and logout at 8.

800 Working people login at 8 and logout at 12 midnight.

800 College students login at 12 midnight and logout at 4.

600 Insomniacs login at 4 and logout at 8.

400 3rd shift workers login at 8 and logout at 12 noon.

 

So that's 600 AVERAGE LOGINS but it's 3,600 SUBSCRIBERS in this particular example.

 

5C This analysis excludes 191 origin servers.

The great majority of these servers (all but 3) have a phi value on Torstatus of below 1.0. I do not know how to assess the population on these servers AND there could be a *lot* of people on these servers that aren't counted as part of this analysis. If there were 500 people on each of these servers, that might be another 95,000 logins... or it could be nobody. I just don't know.

 

6. SUMMARIES FROM TORSTATUS ANALYSIS

 

So here are some summary statistics:

 

You can also view them here as a PDF https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B7egkvys5QFoWEo2UEdWVTNLM1k

 

Total estimated average number of simultaneous concurrent logins of the destination servers (24 hr average over the last 2 weeks 06/13-06/27). Note that this is the first time the data has been ALL from the period after transfers started. Next Monday July 2nd the Torstatus data will be from 6/18/2012 to 7/2/2012 and will be ALL from the period after transfers ENDED.

 

33,791 total estimated concurrent logins on destination servers

 

# Servers By Area

APAC 3

EUR English 4

EUR French 3

EUR German 4

US East 8

US West 4

Grand Total 26

 

# Servers By Type

PvE 12

PvP 7

RP PvE 6

RP PvP 1

Grand Total 26

 

Σ Logins By Area

APAC 2,721

EUR English 5,481

EUR French 3,266

EUR German 4,484

US East 11,501

US West 6,338

Grand Total 33,791

 

 

Σ Logins By Type

PvE 15,976

PvP 9,835

RP PvE 6,696

RP PvP 1,284

Grand Total 33,791

 

 

% Destination Server Total Logins By Area

APAC 8.1%

EUR English 16.2%

EUR French 9.7%

EUR German 13.3%

US East 34.0%

US West 18.8%

 

 

% Destination Server Total Logins By Type

PvE 47.3%

PvP 29.1%

RP PvE 19.8%

RP PvP 3.8%

 

So here are some interesting things that can be observed from this data

 

There are 26 destination servers, which is about what people were predicting. US EST PVE has 4 servers, which is the most numerous of any group.

 

In general, US EST and PVE are the largest groups of servers and % of concurrent logins. For instance, nearly half (47%) of the logins on destination servers are for PvE servers. PvPers are second with 29% of the logins, then RP-PvE with 20%, and RP-PvP with 4%.

 

The bulk of the logins are in the US EST (34%). In order, the other areas are US PST (19%), EUR English (16%), EUR German (13%), EUR French (10%), and APAC (8%).

 

The US EST PVE population is nearly 10% of the total concurrent logins on destination servers. The largest number PvP and RP-PvE logins are also in US EST (9.3% and 4.6% of total destination server logins).

 

The destination servers have an average of 1,300 people logged in as a 24 hour 2 week average. In general the US EST and US PST servers are a little bigger than that. Also, the PvP servers are a little bigger than that.

 

The Ebon Hawk is an atypically large RP PvE server compared to the other RP PvE servers. I have no clue why.

 

The highest population destination servers show an amazing growth trend! Some of them are changing by a phi value of nearly 1 or more. The highest growth is in the US EST and US PST and in the PVE servers.

 

The Fatman continues to shrink, presumably because people are not playing their alts there anymore.

 

The APAC servers are shrinking a tiny bit. I don't know why that is either.

 

As of Tuesday, the 2 week torstatus average will be post-start-of transfers. As of a week from Monday, the 2 week torstatus average will be post-end-of-transfers. At that point I may start showing status and pop estimates for only servers with a phi > 1.

 

7. SUMMARIES FROM ACTUAL POPULATION SURVEYS

 

This takes a lot longer than just looking up phi values on Torstatus! This is a summary of information from SURVEYS were people have COUNTED the number of people logged into their server using the /who command.

 

DATA HERE

 

I've broken out the analysis for Ebon Hawk, Jedi Cov, and Beg Colony seperately because I have enough data to do so. While they differ slightly and uniquely from the general population, they are more-or-less roughly similar to the general population.

 

You can view the graphs associated with this data here:

https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B7egkvys5QFoak8zY2xnS0lvcG8

 

In general, on the destination servers surveyed, the Rep to Imp ratio is overall 52% to 48%, but varies by level.

 

Level % Rep % Imp

Lvl 1-10 = 53% : 47%

Lvl 11-20 = 50% : 50%

Lvl 21-30 = 54% : 46%

Lvl 31-40 = 52% : 48%

Lvl 41-49 = 53% : 47%

Lvl 50 = 53% : 47%

Total = 52% : 48%

 

Overall, level 50 characters are about 35% of the population. Level 1-10 characters are usually under 10%. The other level bands are vary around 15% each.

 

Level % Total

Lvl 1-10 = 8%

Lvl 11-20 = 16%

Lvl 21-30 = 15%

Lvl 31-40 = 14%

Lvl 41-49 = 12%

Lvl 50 = 35%

 

These are the average surveyed number of logins by level. This differs (A LOT) from the 1,300 logins estimated above because MOST of the actual survey results are from peak hours when there are more people actually playing the game.

 

Level Avg Logins

Lvl 1-10 = 137

Lvl 11-20 = 284

Lvl 21-30 = 274

Lvl 31-40 = 252

Lvl 41-49 = 220

Lvl 50 = 628

Total = 1795

 

 

7. IN CLOSING, HOW TO HELP

 

The only real way to get at these demographics is for BW to release their data, but I don't know if they are willing or able to do so. The next best way is go in and /who the server a bunch, but I don't have time for that. This analysis is a shortcut to get at that data without nearly as much work.

 

We can use all the help we can get. If you are on a destination server, and have the time to take a survey, we'd love to have your data (LINK TO SURVEY HERE).

 

I hope I've been clear where I'm making assumptions and what those assumptions are. If you've got a better analysis, or a way to refine some of these assumptions, I'd love to know about it.

 

Paige

[Scorpienne]

OP updated with today's numbers. Some interesting things going on.

 

First of all... people took the transfers! No suprise, but it's nice to have it confirmed. The only non-destination server has had a status other than light in the past two weeks is Dune Bantha. Transfers there didn't start until about the 18th, so a lot of the data from the two week average is still pre-transfer. I suspect that by Monday, the data will show that *only* the destination servers have any status other than light.

 

I'm deeply incredibly grateful to the people who have done server censuses! Particularly Isobel, Einahr, Ysabeau, Alejandro, Mathiswentha, Ramona, Beckett, RedQueen, and Sheytan for filling out the census on multiple occasions and to Hy'ren, Kri'nemi, Messarys, Snowman, Rhianni, and Qycia for filling out the census for servers that are relatively rarely reported. By next week, we'll have a lot more data to look at and get a better idea of what server populations really mean. The analysis of the actual censuses is a lot more work, so I'll probably update that only once a week.

 

Paige

[sabreene]

Ysabeau and Isobel thank you!

 

I just love looking at numbers! The differences between factions and types of characters are really interesting. I always guessed there were a lot of 50 level sorcerers. I've found when /who-ing, they're the first level 50 to go over 100 people.

 

I've actually had a little bit of a problem using /who on full servers. Usually when it gives you outlandish numbers, a few enters will give you the correct number. Today while trying to count on Drooga I finally had to give up. It would never give a number. Obviously there were a lot of people on, because it was giving me numbers like 1186 and 1783. Scrolling the list it *really* was giving me all those people from all over the galaxy and all different levels! Wasn't any good for my data purposes, but was interesting.

 

And thanks for all the data crunching and spreadsheets, Paige. Great work!!

[Scorpienne]

Okay, OP updated with today's numbers... some interesting stuff.

 

We have 94 measurements from the post start-of-transfer period - that means we are really getting enough data to make very firm guesses about how server load may relate to the number of logins.

 

Population numbers are starting to really stabilize. There's not a whole lot of change in a 2 day gap, so I'm going to start just looking at the data on a weekly basis. Three times a week is a little too much for my current workload of actual paying work. :-)

 

Due to valiant efforts on the part of folks from The Ebon Hawk, Jedi Covenant, The Progenitor, and Begeron Colony, I've got enough data for those four servers to do a full workup. If you're interested in a copy of that spreadsheet, then let me know via email and I'll send it to you (scorpienne at gmail dot com).

 

As always, the data are available on the web...

 

Server pop from Torstatus

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aregkvys5QFodFJ2OWN5U0hwaVFBYWdqUUh1WmdZUFE#gid=44

 

Server pop from surveys

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aregkvys5QFodDlvU05lQ3o2S3ZrYU9SYjRwM29OSnc#gid=0

 

 

Paige

[Scorpienne]

OP updated with todays info. :-)

 

The rate of change has slowed down *a lot*. Updating this weekly makes much more sense.

 

For instance... total # of logins...

Date Logins

6/27/2012 32,834

6/29/2012 34,310

7/2/2012 35,383

7/10/2012 35,160

7/16/2012 35,853

 

Total PvE Logins

6/27/2012 15,547

6/29/2012 16,273

7/2/2012 16,974

7/10/2012 16,711

7/16/2012 17,105

 

Average RP PvE Logins per server

6/27/2012 1,087

6/29/2012 1,127

7/2/2012 1,166

7/10/2012 1,237

7/16/2012 1,317

 

PvP Logins as a % of Total Logins

6/27/2012 29.0%

6/29/2012 29.1%

7/2/2012 28.5%

7/10/2012 27.6%

7/16/2012 26.6%

 

 

Maybe if numbers continue to remain stable, I'll go to 2 week updates.

 

 

Paige

Edited July 16, 2012 by Scorpienne

[Valkirus]

OP updated with todays info. :-)

 

The rate of change has slowed down *a lot*. Updating this weekly makes much more sense.

 

For instance... total # of logins...

Date Logins

6/27/2012 32,834

6/29/2012 34,310

7/2/2012 35,383

7/10/2012 35,160

7/16/2012 35,853

 

Total PvE Logins

6/27/2012 15,547

6/29/2012 16,273

7/2/2012 16,974

7/10/2012 16,711

7/16/2012 17,105

 

Average RP PvE Logins per server

6/27/2012 1,087

6/29/2012 1,127

7/2/2012 1,166

7/10/2012 1,237

7/16/2012 1,317

 

PvP Logins as a % of Total Logins

6/27/2012 29.0%

6/29/2012 29.1%

7/2/2012 28.5%

7/10/2012 27.6%

7/16/2012 26.6%

 

 

Maybe if numbers continue to remain stable, I'll go to 2 week updates.

 

 

Paige

 

Does this list count the over 100 NA servers which are dead? Or just the 13 NA destination servers? And it appears the PVP servers are showing a slow decline in logins. Also these figures I assume would count the level 15 free trial logins?

Edited July 16, 2012 by Valkirus

[Veluthurk]

Does this list count the over 100 NA servers which are dead? Or just the 13 NA destination servers? And it appears the PVP servers are showing a slow decline in logins. Also these figures I assume would count the level 15 free trial logins?

 

Ah Val, your malcontent is showing.

[Roalmo]

Does this list count the over 100 NA servers which are dead? Or just the 13 NA destination servers? And it appears the PVP servers are showing a slow decline in logins. Also these figures I assume would count the level 15 free trial logins?

 

Do try to keep up old chap.

 

"5C This analysis excludes 191 origin servers.

All of the 191 origin servers have a phi value on Torstatus of below 1.0. I do not know how to assess the population on these servers AND there could be a *lot* of people on these servers that aren't counted as part of this analysis. If there were 500 people on each of these servers, that might be another 95,000 logins... or it could be nobody. I just don't know."

[Scorpienne]

Does this list count the over 100 NA servers which are dead? Or just the 13 NA destination servers? And it appears the PVP servers are showing a slow decline in logins. Also these figures I assume would count the level 15 free trial logins?

 

Roalmo, as usual, is quite correct.

 

As an aside, perhaps you may possibly consider the merits of actually reading the bright yellow highlights in the OP that are specifically there to serve as answers to the most commonly asked questions of the past couple of months? Tell you what, I'll rearrange the TL;DR at the top to make 'em a bit more accessible.

 

The PvP servers are slightly declining as a % OF TOTAL LOGINS, which was pulled out as a stat of interest. The actual NUMBER of people logged in on PvP servers is about flat.

 

Paige

[Valkirus]

Do try to keep up old chap.

 

"5C This analysis excludes 191 origin servers.

All of the 191 origin servers have a phi value on Torstatus of below 1.0. I do not know how to assess the population on these servers AND there could be a *lot* of people on these servers that aren't counted as part of this analysis. If there were 500 people on each of these servers, that might be another 95,000 logins... or it could be nobody. I just don't know."

 

Thanks for the answer. It is as I suspected anyway.

[Karquile]

Is there a particular time of day that you prefer to take census? From my counts it's pretty obvious that there can be ten times as many players on a server at, say, 10pm, than there are at 7am. I'm not talking about Torstatus extrapolations but hard measurements.

[Scorpienne]

Is there a particular time of day that you prefer to take census? From my counts it's pretty obvious that there can be ten times as many players on a server at, say, 10pm, than there are at 7am. I'm not talking about Torstatus extrapolations but hard measurements.

 

I think it's more like five times as many, but it doesn't matter. We agree that there's a BIG difference between light and full servers.

 

TL;DR As far as census info goes ANY time of day is usefult, but peak hours are best.

 

Here's how I use the data... LINK

 

Click the tab down at the bottom that says "server load to status" .

 

In order to be able to say "server status X means Y many logins" data from any time of day is great! In fact, if you look at the matrix of how many measurements I have for each status and each server (off to the right) you can see that I have less info on servers that are at light, very heavy, and full status. Getting more info at those statuses are great and that means either taking surveys when the server is light (non peak hours) or pretty busy (peak hours).

 

 

If you click the tab that says "overall stats", you'll see the other way I use data.

 

It's an analysis looking at server demographics. Number of charcters by level, % of pop on fleet, class breakdown of lvl 50 characters. I think this sort of stuff is most useful coming from peak hours data.

 

 

So... you can't go wrong. :-) All times are good times.

 

If anyone is interested in taking the survey, it's here LINK.

 

Thanks in advance for contributing to the pile o' data.

 

 

Paige

Edited July 17, 2012 by Scorpienne

[Karquile]

It's a very interesting subject - there are different questions you can ask of the data. One is what relation (if any) exists between the Light thru Full load indicators, versus actual player count. From my counts, the colored indicator might be tied to overall server (CPU/disk/memory) load rather than player counts, because I can get very similar numbers on the same server for Standard and then Heavy, or Heavy and then Very Heavy. Maybe some game activities (PVP for example, or hard modes or WZ's) put a bigger load on the server than other activities (like leveling on Alderaan or sitting in your ship). That's why the indicators have ranges in your data.

 

Of course that metric can be "adjusted" at any time by the game runners, as Sony infamously did shortly after the NGE debacle when servers emptied out - overnight, Light became Medium, Medium became Heavy and so on.

 

My interest is in the actual numbers and their trendline. Where are we now, where are we headed, and how fast are we going there? That's why I try to count at the same time each day.

 

By the way, people write off the origin servers (haters call then "dead") but during peak hours, there are probably 10,000 players on the origins.

[Scorpienne]

Wow - what a difference two weeks does *not* make! The numbers are essentially unchanged from two weeks ago. The aggregated phi value change was +0.03, our smallest in a looong time. The APAC servers shrank a bit - the German servers grew a bit, but it's pretty much a wash.

 

This means that the transfers are essentially done - anyone who was going to move has already moved. Here's what the servers and summary stats look like right now.

 

The Harbinger (PvE West) Avg Logins ≈ 1,723

The Bastion (PvP West) Avg Logins ≈ 1,707

Drooga's Pleasure Barge (PvE West) Avg Logins ≈ 1,653

Begeren Colony (RP PvE West) Avg Logins ≈ 1,653

The Ebon Hawk (RP PvE East) Avg Logins ≈ 1,567

Corellian Run (PvE East) Avg Logins ≈ 1,528

Jedi Covenant (PvE East) Avg Logins ≈ 1,513

The Shadowlands (PvE East) Avg Logins ≈ 1,489

Canderous Ordo (PvE East) Avg Logins ≈ 1,474

Prophecy of the Five (PvP East) Avg Logins ≈ 1,466

The Progenitor (RP PvE English) Avg Logins ≈ 1,419

Tomb of Freedon Nadd (PvP English) Avg Logins ≈ 1,419

The Red Eclipse (PvE English) Avg Logins ≈ 1,396

Nightmare Lands (PvE English) Avg Logins ≈ 1,358

T3-M4 (PvE German) Avg Logins ≈ 1,358

The Jedi Tower (PvE German) Avg Logins ≈ 1,350

The Fatman (PvP East) Avg Logins ≈ 1,342

Vanjervalis Chain (RP PvE German) Avg Logins ≈ 1,327

Jung Ma (RP PvP East) Avg Logins ≈ 1,319

Darth Nihilus (PvP French) Avg Logins ≈ 1,288

Mantle of the Force (PvE French) Avg Logins ≈ 1,288

Jar'Kai Sword (PvP German) Avg Logins ≈ 1,273

Battle Meditation (RP PvE French) Avg Logins ≈ 1,227

Dalborra (PvE APAC) Avg Logins ≈ 942

Gav Daragon (RP PvE APAC) Avg Logins ≈ 911

Master Dar'Nala (PvP APAC) Avg Logins ≈ 834

 

Σ Logins by Area

APAC 2,687

West 6,736

East 11,699

English 5,593

German 5,308

French 3,804

Grand Total 35,827

 

Σ Logins by Type

PvE 17,072

PvP 9,331

RP PvE 8,104

RP PvP 1,319

Grand Total 35,827

 

Avg Logins by Area

APAC 896

West 1,684

East 1,462

English 1,398

German 1,327

French 1,268

Grand Total 1,378

 

Avg Logins by Type

PvE 1,423

PvP 1,333

RP PvE 1,351

RP PvP 1,319

Grand Total 1,378

 

 

So maybe this means we're best off looking at this on a monthly basis? I'll pull the numbers on 8/1 and then monthly after that?

 

 

Paige

[Symbea]

Firstly great work. I personally would like to see updates every couple weeks because I find this data and topic fascinating but obviously you have your life to lead and you should only do it if it still remains fun.

 

Second, this topic shows quite clearly that the game isn't dying. I'm not saying it's thriving but the last month has shown stable numbers with even a little bit of an increase. That right there is important information for those declaring that the game is dying/dead.

 

I suggest that everyone post the link to this topic any time some over angry rash player declares with full confidence but no evidence that the game is dying.

Edited July 23, 2012 by Symbea

[Soluss]

Firstly great work. I personally would like to see updates every couple weeks because I find this data and topic fascinating but obviously you have your life to lead and you should only do it if it still remains fun.

 

Second, this topic shows quite clearly that the game isn't dying. I'm not saying it's thriving but the last month has shown stable numbers with even a little bit of an increase. That right there is important information for those declaring that the game is dying/dead.

 

I suggest that everyone post the link to this topic any time some over angry rash player declares with full confidence but no evidence that the game is dying.

 

35,827 total estimated concurrent logins on destination servers ... out of what use to be 1.7 million subscribers is showing the game isnt dying? They say about 10% of the subscribers will be playing at any given time. If thats even close to true... which I am pretty sure it is... that would say we have roughly 360k subscribers. How many of those are the up to level 15 FTP log ins? Bioware stated they pretty much need 500k subs to break even/show little profit.

 

I would say that doesnt look good.

[dandamanno]

35,827 total estimated concurrent logins on destination servers ... out of what use to be 1.7 million subscribers is showing the game isnt dying? They say about 10% of the subscribers will be playing at any given time. If thats even close to true... which I am pretty sure it is... that would say we have roughly 360k subscribers. How many of those are the up to level 15 FTP log ins? Bioware stated they pretty much need 500k subs to break even/show little profit.

 

I would say that doesnt look good.

 

Hmm good point. Even if you said all the origin servers had 499 people on them at all times that would be 499*191=95309 more concurrent logins. Plus the 36000 on the destination = 131309 concurrent*10(10% fugure in your post)=1.3 million subscribers. I think we all know there are not 499 people on the origin servers all the time.

 

I have a bad feeling about sub numbers coming in August.

[Valkirus]

35,827 total estimated concurrent logins on destination servers ... out of what use to be 1.7 million subscribers is showing the game isnt dying? They say about 10% of the subscribers will be playing at any given time. If thats even close to true... which I am pretty sure it is... that would say we have roughly 360k subscribers. How many of those are the up to level 15 FTP log ins? Bioware stated they pretty much need 500k subs to break even/show little profit.

 

I would say that doesnt look good.

 

It doe'snt. Unless your the ostrich type fan, then you will make positive news about any numbers. It is also a lot more accurate then the sub numbers report due out next month will be I think. IF they announce the numbers. But even at 360k subs, the game is not dying in the sense they will close the doors and send all the workers home. But it is not in good shape, that much is clear. I think they allready have made thier investment back from the production of the game and 360k subs will be enough to keep the game going. But not without some major changes and we have allready seen some of those lately.

[Soluss]

It doe'snt. Unless your the ostrich type fan, then you will make positive news about any numbers. It is also a lot more accurate then the sub numbers report due out next month will be I think. IF they announce the numbers. But even at 360k subs, the game is not dying in the sense they will close the doors and send all the workers home. But it is not in good shape, that much is clear. I think they allready have made thier investment back from the production of the game and 360k subs will be enough to keep the game going. But not without some major changes and we have allready seen some of those lately.

 

Yeah, I didnt mean dying in the aspect of closing the doors... I meant more maintenance mode where we see content updates few and far between because of skeleton dev crews... cash shops and things of the sort.

Edited July 23, 2012 by Soluss

[H-aTreD]

Hmm good point. Even if you said all the origin servers had 499 people on them at all times that would be 499*191=95309 more concurrent logins. Plus the 36000 on the destination = 131309 concurrent*10(10% fugure in your post)=1.3 million subscribers. I think we all know there are not 499 people on the origin servers all the time.

 

I have a bad feeling about sub numbers coming in August.

 

What will be funny about the August numbers for the quarter is the "refer a friend" mount they taunted us with to "pad their stats" if you will. So much like the "free month" we got before the last quarter numbers, this time it'll have the people who popped a second account just for the mount.

[mothear]

What will be funny about the August numbers for the quarter is the "refer a friend" mount they taunted us with to "pad their stats" if you will. So much like the "free month" we got before the last quarter numbers, this time it'll have the people who popped a second account just for the mount.

 

Something that other subscription MMO's would never do ..... oh wait.

[Arlbo_Nabbins]

35,827 total estimated concurrent logins on destination servers ... out of what use to be 1.7 million subscribers is showing the game isnt dying? They say about 10% of the subscribers will be playing at any given time. If thats even close to true... which I am pretty sure it is... that would say we have roughly 360k subscribers. How many of those are the up to level 15 FTP log ins? Bioware stated they pretty much need 500k subs to break even/show little profit.

 

I would say that doesnt look good.

 

35,827 estimated average concurrent logins not the peak numbers (which is the number the 10% is usually applied to).

 

5A 24 Hour average doesn't equal prime-time logins.

The catch here is realizing that this estimate is based on a 14 day average status, so that's dead slack times and peak times. The theoretical average population UNDERESTIMATES the peak population and OVERESTIMATES the off-peak population. You might login at prime time with a queue and realize your server has 3x? 4x? 5x? as many players as the list above indicates. That's to be expected.

 

If you look at the data Ebon Hawk had an estimate of 3,810 players last Tuesday at peak times.

Edited July 24, 2012 by Arlbo_Nabbins

[Soluss]

35,827 estimated average concurrent logins not the peak numbers (which is the number the 10% is usually applied to).

 

No, the 10% applies to exactly what I said... it does not apply to just peak times. The 10% is the average because peak time spike high and dead times spike low. Also different time zones or whatever. Theres a study on it.

[Arlbo_Nabbins]

No, the 10% applies to exactly what I said... it does not apply to just peak times. The 10% is the average because peak time spike high and dead times spike low. Also different time zones or whatever. Theres a study on it.

 

Link to this "study"?

 

The 5%-10% (personally I think 8-10% would be a better range) has always been used as a multiplier for the peak population in MMORPGs.

 

Different time zones are meaningless as the figures used here are based on sampling the servers multiple times during the day so it catches the lows and the highs.

Edited July 24, 2012 by Arlbo_Nabbins