Subs down 25%

[Sanxxx]

From the shareholder report:

 

"Let us give you two additional points of perspective as it relates to our current subscriber base

and its impact on our fiscal 13 guidance. First, the current number of active subscribers, 1.3

million, is very consistent with the original assumptions we made when we acquired BioWare in

2008. Second, while this franchise is very profitable, it only represents a mid-single digit

percent of our total profitability in fiscal 13. "

 

 

From an interview with EA Games president Frank Gibeau in 2008:

 

""Both EA and LucasArts have confirmed to VG247 that the target for BioWare’s newly announced Star Wars: The Old Republic is to make an MMO with a larger userbase than World or Warcraft.

 

“We have very high expectations for this,” said EA Games president Frank Gibeau, speaking this week at LucasArts’ HQ in San Francisco. “Just look at the base of Star Wars fans, plus what BioWare can do. Trust me: we want to win. EA’s reputation is for wanting to win. This is going to be a powerful category and there’s lots of ways to compete in this category. [blizzard] created a much larger opportunity for everybody else, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to stay that way.”

 

LucasArts online boss Tom Nichols concurred, saying that the firm is banking on The Old Republic’s storytelling component to bust through WoW’s 11 million subs record.

http://www.vg247.com/2008/10/24/wow-is-the-target-with-the-old-republic-says-lucasarts-and-ea/

 

 

LOL!

 

So, 1.2m might be good compared to the majority of MMOs but I've a nagging feeling it might not be meeting EAs expectations.

[Andryah]

No, I am not saying, nor did I say the CEO lied. He stated a truth at the moment - and that is the key you don't seem to understand. The SEC only requires accurate reporting at the time, which he did do.

 

Then we agree, and.... you are speculating on the future of the game, absent any objective basis for said speculation other then your personal feelings on the state of the game.

 

As for sub number for "modern" MMOs, sorry, data on ten year old MMOs is not modern. The data for MMOs released in the last 2-3 years is modern and the data you referenced (I read it) supports my statement.

[Goretzu]

I encourage you to rethink that. To say what they said in the earnings call, and subsequent interviews, and for it not to be materially true represent INVESTOR FRAUD under Sarbanes Oxley.

 

Here's the way it works in the corporate world in the SOX era: you don't say anything that is not true, PERIOD. If you have a product you are unhappy with, you try very hard to say nothing about it, and you operationally reogranize it somewhere where it will have no investor visibility.

 

It is clear from the earnings call that SWTOR is working within EAs operational plan for it. Just because some players do not like the game, does not change that fact. Now, would EA like it if the game was growing 1 million subscriptions per month? Certainly. But that would gravy above and beyond their stated operational plan for it.

 

An EA exec NOT saying what he thinks is NOT investor fraud!

 

In fact an EA exec can NOT say anything he wants.

 

All they have to do is publish what they legally have to publish, they can put whatever spin and shine on it that they care too/think they can get away with.

 

Interesting perspective. However it lacks basis in fact. So I think you need to step back and rethink this. Following your logic and perspecitve, DAOC should have been closed the day EA aquired Mythic, yet it continud on, and does so to this day. Same goes for Warhammer, it should have been closed within the first year if we follow your logic and perspective.

 

DAoC was supposed to get a big revamp when EA took over - it didn't.

 

They still run it because it's still profitable, but it's pretty much been in maintance mode.

 

Same with WAR, only the development plug was actively pulled on WAR.... plus with WAR they have an IP and a contract with GW.

 

EAs product and revenue steam is very diversified. NO PART of it is too big to fail.

 

They could close SWTOR right now, write down the R&D, take tax credits for the write downs, and probably show a one quarter windfall on their balance sheet and come out of it all about even on a dollars basis. But they won't, because it is (using their words to investors) "stable, strong operationally, and profitable".

 

Then SWTOR could be headed for the same fate as Warhammer Online. Zombified and keep alive to milk whatever the can $$$-wise and hold the IP and contract but ZERO developement budget.

 

That would be a real shame, as it was for Warhammer Online.

[Andryah]

Get real, son.

 

Self reflection would be good for your well being.

[Culdor]

I personally do not care what the number is, or how it stacks up with other games. What I do know is that que times for warzones are way longer, finding groups takes way longer, my friends list rarely shows anyone logged in, my guild list is way shorter, etc.

 

Anyone that thinks that does not have a negative impact on those of us left playing the game is just plain foolish. They needed cross server queing a month ago, it's getting to the point of to late.

[Andryah]

DAoC was supposed to get a big revamp when EA took over - it didn't.

 

EA never said that, Mythic hyped it to it's subscribers. There is a reason Mythic management no longer exists, and Mythic operations were folded into a new MMO group at EA headed by Bioware management.

 

They still run it because it's still profitable, but it's pretty much been in maintance mode.

 

Thank you for validating my point. And all old MMOs are in maintenance mode.

 

Then SWTOR could be headed for the same fate as Warhammer Online. Zombified and keep alive to milk whatever the can $$$-wise and hold the IP and contract but ZERO developement budget.

 

So you are not confident enough in your "fear, uncertainty, and doubt" campaign to say "will", so you hedge with the every popular "could".

 

SWTOR has already moved well past the Warhammer doom profile. So the only thing none of us know at this point is what subs for this game will be in 12 months, 24 months, 36 months, yada, yada. Oh people have opinions, especially those that rant and QQ, but I take that as their way of expressing their frustrations.

 

SWTOR has several things that Warhammer never had. A) Lots of headroom before it actually beomes an operations problem for EA B) no reliance on it being PvP centric, which is niche even today and very volatile in terms of subscriber base. C) universally recognized IP and brand.

 

Unlike many of you, I am completely fine with this game settling in at a run rate of a milion subs a months +/-. Apparently so is EA.

 

It's a new game, it's got things that need to be smoothed out. It needs a server transfer feature so players can have some control of which servers they play on. It will get continuing patching. As things progress, one thing is certain about todays impatient game hopping MMO players; the will come back and revisit the game. If they like the improvements they will stay for a while, so subs can easily percolate in the 1 million range +/- for a long period of time.

Edited May 10, 2012 by Andryah

[Wayshuba]

From the shareholder report:

 

"Let us give you two additional points of perspective as it relates to our current subscriber base

and its impact on our fiscal 13 guidance. First, the current number of active subscribers, 1.3

million, is very consistent with the original assumptions we made when we acquired BioWare in

2008. Second, while this franchise is very profitable, it only represents a mid-single digit

percent of our total profitability in fiscal 13. "

 

 

From an interview with EA Games president Frank Gibeau in 2008:

 

""Both EA and LucasArts have confirmed to VG247 that the target for BioWare’s newly announced Star Wars: The Old Republic is to make an MMO with a larger userbase than World or Warcraft.

 

“We have very high expectations for this,” said EA Games president Frank Gibeau, speaking this week at LucasArts’ HQ in San Francisco. “Just look at the base of Star Wars fans, plus what BioWare can do. Trust me: we want to win. EA’s reputation is for wanting to win. This is going to be a powerful category and there’s lots of ways to compete in this category. [blizzard] created a much larger opportunity for everybody else, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to stay that way.”

 

LucasArts online boss Tom Nichols concurred, saying that the firm is banking on The Old Republic’s storytelling component to bust through WoW’s 11 million subs record.

http://www.vg247.com/2008/10/24/wow-is-the-target-with-the-old-republic-says-lucasarts-and-ea/

 

 

LOL!

 

Great find and emphasis from my earlier post. Considering WoW didn't come out of the gate with 11m subs, but grew there over time, I think it is safe to assume they didn't expect the large sub drop-off.

[Mallorik]

 

EA never said that, Mythic hyped it to it's subscribers. There is a reason Mythic management no longer exists, and Mythic operations were folded into a new MMO group at EA headed by Bioware management.

 

.

 

I dont know why people dont remember how horrible mythic was, daoc was released like less than half done, the pve was just horrid, they released one of the most hated expansions in mmo history (atlantis) The last straw for me was when they dumbed down archery (the most unique archery mechanic in any mmo) to wow standards.

 

Daoc was a fluke, they had a great idea with the three fations and RvR pvp but after the game came out they rarely did anything right.

Edited May 10, 2012 by Mallorik

[BJWyler]

Actually, in the modern era for large popular MMOs, yes it is. The MMO community has changed after the better part of a decade of WoW. They are more fickle, less loyal, less tolerant, more demanding, more threatening in their rhetoric. They hop from new MMO to new MMO. Only a percentage of the community settles in and sticks wtih a particular MMO for a length of time.

 

The true profile for an MMO launch FAIL is Tabula Rasa.

 

YES - that was the name. Was just thinking about "Lord Richard's" project yesterday, and couldn't think of it.

Don't forget about Auto Assault to - that was gone almost before the final beta was complete.

 

BJ

[Jett-Rinn]

Great find and emphasis from my earlier post. Considering WoW didn't come out of the gate with 11m subs, but grew there over time, I think it is safe to assume they didn't expect the large sub drop-off.

 

Actually WoW had a similar drop it's first year and grew from there...I know that probably won't happen with TOR but it should be noted.

[Mallorik]

YES - that was the name. Was just thinking about "Lord Richard's" project yesterday, and couldn't think of it.

Don't forget about Auto Assault to - that was gone almost before the final beta was complete.

 

BJ

 

LOL i was a victim of both Auto Assault and tabula rasa. And i didnt think either of them were horrible games, its like they just said F this we dont want to work on these games.

[Goretzu]

 

EA never said that, Mythic hyped it to it's subscribers. There is a reason Mythic management no longer exists, and Mythic operations were folded into a new MMO group at EA headed by Bioware management.

 

Perhaps, we can't know for sure either way. However either way DAoC in in maintance mode, despite turning a decent profit.

 

Mythic EA and Bioware EA became Bioware-Mythic EA for a while and then just back to plain Bioware EA

 

 

 

Thank you for validating my point. And all old MMOs are in maintenance mode.

 

What point?

 

EQ1, LOTRO, EvE and many others are all not in maintance mode and recieving development.

 

 

 

So you are not confident enough in your "fear, uncertainty, and doubt" campaign to say "will", so you hedge with the every popular "could".

 

How can I know the future?

 

SWTOR could well end up going down the same road as Warhammer, it largely depends on what EA do (I may well be utterly amazing, but I don't control EA actions. ).

 

 

SWTOR has already moved well past the Warhammer doom profile. So the only thing none of us know at this point is what subs for this game will be in 12 months, 24 months, 36 months, yada, yada. Oh people have opinions, especially those that rant and QQ, but I take that as their way of expressing their frustrations.

 

Well subs are dropping in a similar manner, the big difference is EA pulled the developement plug on Warhammer before it went Live (nothing new was made for WAR after this). EA seem to be happy to allow Bioware to run with costly developement budgets for SWTOR....... so far.

 

SWTOR has several things that Warhammer never had. A) Lots of headroom before it actually beomes an operations problem for EA B) no reliance on it being PvP centric, which is niche even today and very volatile in terms of subscriber base. C) universally recognized IP and brand.

 

a) Huh? How much headroom is an operational problem? I've no idea what you are talking about.

b) Warhammer was certainly RvR-centric (not so much PvP). But PvP is the biggest player base on the internet, it's no niche.

c) Warhammer is a very big IP and brand, not Star Wars perhaps, but a huge brand for a PC game never the less.

 

Unlike many of you, I am completely fine with this game settling in at a run rate of a milion subs a months +/-. Apparently so is EA.

 

I'd guess at the moment there are less than 1,000,000 active subs, how much less we'll have to see.

 

What worries me is what level of subs EA deem SWTOR worth developing vs just maintaining it.

 

Believe me you won't like it if SWTOR goes into maintance mode and all you see is all you ever get.

[Mallorik]

Actually WoW had a similar drop it's first year and grew from there...I know that probably won't happen with TOR but it should be noted.

 

if they do just as few changes very quickly i think swtor could definately grow very large.

[kitsinni]

Great find and emphasis from my earlier post. Considering WoW didn't come out of the gate with 11m subs, but grew there over time, I think it is safe to assume they didn't expect the large sub drop-off.

 

So they specifically say that the number of subs they have is consistent with exactly what the expected and that leads you to believe they didn't expect the sub drop off?

[Goretzu]

Actually WoW had a similar drop it's first year and grew from there...I know that probably won't happen with TOR but it should be noted.

 

Where do people get that idea from?

[Wayshuba]

So they specifically say that the number of subs they have is consistent with exactly what the expected and that leads you to believe they didn't expect the sub drop off?

 

No, they were originally expecting to compete with WoW numbers, which took time to grow where they are. Them saying it is consistent with what they expected does NOT mean it is consistent to what they wanted or hoped for.

 

I would say if they were originally thinking they could have 11m subs, they were expecting probably 3m-4m subs at this point, but the quick drop off changed their 'expectations'.

 

Besides, the official information conflicts, how, according to the initial interview in 2008 could you expect to smash the 11m barrier and then say in 2008 that 1.3m subs was what you were expecting. I always love seeing the official statements rehashed to show how they change over time. 2008 interview = what was really anticipated, 2012 shareholders letter = what we learned we are going to get.

[BJWyler]

LOL i was a victim of both Auto Assault and tabula rasa. And i didnt think either of them were horrible games, its like they just said F this we dont want to work on these games.

 

Yeah - I was interested in TR, but never got around to playing it before it died. I really liked the idea of AA and got into the Betas. I liked what I saw and experienced there, but at the time thought it wasn't quite worth a monthly fee. I did get a boxed pre-order, though, but it was pretty much gone by the time I was ready to buy it. I still have my pre-order box, lol. I always thought that if Net Devil had taken Anet's cue and made it a B2P game, it might have survived. That was the one MMO in recent history I thought has the potential to really give us something different.

 

BJ

Edited May 10, 2012 by BJWyler

[Altinar]

Self reflection would be good for your well being.

 

Ahem...the word you're looking for is introspection. Not only do you completely misuse the word, but I'm fairly certain that picking out the last three words of a post that contains a (sufficiently) reasoned argument against your posts and proceeding to make a terse, vague, and barely concealed insult based upon those words only gives more reason to believe you have no idea what you're saying.

[Andryah]

Ahem...the word you're looking for is introspection. Not only do you completely misuse the word, but I'm fairly certain that picking out the last three words of a post that contains a (sufficiently) reasoned argument against your posts and proceeding to make a terse, vague, and barely concealed insult based upon those words only gives more reason to believe you have no idea what you're saying.

 

Think again. Because you whiffed on that one.

 

He made an ad hominem attack and I responded with some advice.

Edited May 10, 2012 by Andryah

[alanhurst]

ugh... what server are you on?

 

Thana Vesh, had a real nice server pop for awhile,which is why i REROLLED there in the first place.

I already dropped a BH in her 40's to reroll once, and now that i have my trooper at the same level i'd just as soon quit as to drop AGAIN and start all over.

[Blistrich]

I, for one, am glad the subs are dropping. Why? Well, because I'm an Age of Conan player, and frankly, all these people running around is really starting to piss me off.

 

I go to Fleet on Harbinger during peak time... 200 people??? What the hell man... give me some damn space. Just back off. No I don't want to join your Heroic, I mean god, what is this? Some kind of hip social scene? Last night I was out fighting mobs on Alderaan and some jerk comes by and starts doing the same quests I'm doing... and he asks if I want to join him...

 

That's right... join him. You SWTOR people are weird.

Edited May 10, 2012 by Blistrich

[Altinar]

if they do just as few changes very quickly i think swtor could definately grow very large.

 

No, that's very unlikely at this point. 5 months in and we don't even have the complete features promised at launch, i.e. legacy. It doesn't help that people were left feeling utterly betrayed at launch, since almost none of the information collected in the beta was used to fix anything, and was instead systematically ignored in order to "build hype" for the game just prior to launch. Poor patch quality (breaking matrix cubes with some random tuesday maintenance patch...how does that even happen?) and the only confirmed upcoming content being features that are incredibly overdue (LFG, cross server BGs, etc. etc.) aren't painting a pretty picture for either the state of the game or the amount of devotion/effort Bioware and EA are willing to put into this game.

[Altinar]

I, for one, am glad the subs are dropping. Why? Well, because I'm an Age of Conan player, and frankly, all these people running around is really starting to piss me off.

 

I go to Fleet on Harbinger during peak time... 200 people??? What the hell man... give me some damn space. Just back off. No I don't want to join your Heroic, I mean god, what is this? Some kind of hip social scene? Last night I was out fighting mobs on Alderaan and some jerk comes by and starts doing the same quests I'm doing... and he asks if I want to join him...

 

That's right... join him. You SWTOR people are weird.

 

I know right? God, who wants to play with other people in an MMO?

 

In before someone takes this post seriously and tarnishes its humor with a standard "good riddance, leave, we're better off without you whiners and quitters!" post.

[ThiborF]

I keep reading people saying things like that, but I've never seen anything to back it up.

 

From what I remember WoW maybe had a little dip (or perhaps a dip in growth - which isn't really the same thing), but WoW never had a huge server population drop.

 

 

 

If you're just talking about box sales to long term subs.... then maybe it was 50%, but then with over 2.4m box sales SWTOR is around the 50% retention mark at the moment as well.

 

WoW is the anomaly that pushed out the curve in that it, like every other MMO, has been losing subs since the day after the free month ends BUT, has gained more than it loses for an extended period of time more than previous MMOs or even ones since, have enjoyed.

 

Your typical MMO goes something like ...

Launch --> Growth --> Peak --> Brief sharp decline --> plateau --> slow decline

 

For many/most MMOs that growth to peak time frame can occur anywhere from within a couple weeks of launch until around the first 6mo-1y. Again, that's typical, not necessarily the case for all. WoW on the other hand kept building and building despite the losses. Whether it truly peaked with WotLK expac we won't know until we see the numbers from MoP. My gut says their true sub peak is behind them now and while MoP will likely bring a bump up, the slow decline will continue.

 

So TOR seems to be falling into the typical niche. Of course, all of those looking for reasons to post hate for the game and that it's failing will rally around the 24% loss and scream "See?!?! We told you!" Meanwhile, those of us who enjoy the game will keep playing.

 

TOR still has a couple aces to play but, when and how they get played will be key. Server transfers/mergers are a must at some point in the near future. No two ways around that and they know it. If they can make that happen in the next 30-60 days it will help. Next is their rumored update to the space portion of the game. All we have heard is something like "excited about the ideas" or "big things coming" etc. Nothing concrete. Not even a sniff of a ballpark ETA. The reason I say this is key is if they hit this out of the park, it could well spark a revival for the game. If you start making a list of sci-fi/space themed MMOs that are (or supposed to be) a AAA title, your list gets fairly short. EVE, Star Trek and TOR are about all that really come to mind. EVE is hardcore, sandbox style of game. By it's design it's not going to appeal to the large casual MMO population. Star Trek, while boasting being F2P, was done poorly (personally i think it gives Age of Conan a run for its money on crapiest launch) and is only satisfying a niche crowd ... think SWG for the past couple of years. So that leaves TOR.

 

I think BW knows they need to improve their game. Unfortunately, the typical MMO playerbase is an impatient and fickle "female dog". They continue to take meaningful strides I think they'll be boasting at around 1m subs for a decent amount of time and if the space additions are great, possibly even rise above the current 1.3m. Then again, they could just as easily be looking at 500k-750k in the next six months. *shrug* Time will tell. I'm certainly not writing the game off yet by any means and will be here as long as I continue to have fun.

[noladev]

Think again. Because you whiffed on that one.

 

He made an ad hominem attack and I responded with some advice.

 

No. We see through the fact that you ignored my well-reasoned argument and chose to respond to the last three words only. Nice try though.