Subs down 25%

[ohpleasework]

When you have upwards of 10 million subscribers, you can afford to lose a good chunk. When you have a smaller subscriber base, that same 25% becomes much more noticeable.

 

Let us also not forget that SWTOR has lost closer to 900,000 subscribers because the game sold close to 2.2 million boxes. Granted, a portion of those did not get past their 30 day trial, but if BioWare/EA wants to count "casual and trial" accounts, then I get to too.

 

I didn't give the transcript of the investor's call a complete read. Did they say that 2.2 million units sold through (sales to end users), or that they merely moved that many boxes in total (which would mean that they're including units still sitting in warehouses and on store shelves)? It wouldn't surprise me if they sold 2.2 million units to end users, honestly - great license and early word of mouth was positive.

 

And as you mentioned, if 2.2 million is the correct total for end-user sales, then they failed to retain 41% of the customers that purchased their game. That's not good.

[Vlacke]

Unfortunately for most, it's too little, too late.

 

It's never too late really and it most definitely isn't too little.

Once free transfers start a lot of people will come back to play, new content patches and the upcoming group finder will bring even more people back, new players will also come.

Edited May 9, 2012 by Vlacke

[Stalkobot]

Lol.. those are Investor docs. They can't lie to investors. That's a federal crime.

 

Thats kind of funny and sweetly naive at the same time. Theres lying and then theres lying, theres telling the truth (nods) and then theres the "truth" (shakes head and frowns) . Companies can make investor reports say whatever the hell they want to by submission and omission of whatever they want and then of course resort to statistics.

 

Think about old Wild Bill in the Lewinsky trial, he didn't perjure himself at all, merely adhered to his own definition.

[arcdaemon]

It's never too late really and it most definitely isn't too little.

Once free transfers start a lot of people will come back to play, new content patches and the upcoming group finder will bring even more people back, new players will also come.

 

you wrong as usual thjis is the tortanic.

[Benfynyn]

And as you mentioned, if 2.2 million is the correct total for end-user sales, then they failed to retain 41% of the customers that purchased their game. That's not good.

 

The approximate total for end-user sales is actually 2.4 million.

 

Let me provide you with an update on Star Wars:

Through the end of the quarter, approximately 2.4 million units have sold through. In our last

call we indicated that we had 1.7 million active subscribers, and as of the end of April we now

have 1.3 million, with a substantial portion of the decrease due to casual and trial players

cycling out of the subscriber base, driving up the overall percentage of paying subscribers.

 

Source: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ERTS/1675578999x0x566984/c10f605c-3487-488e-ad86-b5bb74fe2408/Q4_FY12_Script.pdf

[mothermonterr]

new players won't be inclined to join after they see the forums exposing BW's fails:rak_01:

[limenutpen]

Hard to see the future is.... Even if this game had ten million subs!

 

I think this game is going bad because of people posting here a bit too much. And everyone understands too much about everything.

 

we have the WoW cryiers, PvPers, and the ones loooking for the next big MMO read GW2

 

If you compare it to WoW at launch with a better more happy economy World wide and less MMO competition, it launched had 1 mill drop to .5 mill in 6 months then went up to 4 mill down to 3 and a spillar up to 8, 10, and then 12, and now 10 or 9.

 

SWTOR started at 1.7 million is down to 1.3 and is nearly 5 months old. The new content for SWTOR looks awesome.

The only people I understand in all these posts here are the ones looking for Server transfers in empty pop, but the amazing legacy is also a problem for that.

 

I wonder what all these naysayers would say if TOR has 2 million + after a year.... I am sure we will find the usual bandwagon jump of how good this game is, and how it reinvented MMO....

 

As Plageus says humans are really boring and predictable!

[mothermonterr]

 

I wonder what all these naysayers would say if TOR has 2 million + after a year.... I am sure we will find the usual bandwagon jump of how good this game is, and how it reinvented MMO....

 

As Plageus says humans are really boring and predictable!

 

yup because another MMO they handled, warhammer online, proves they can get 2 million subs after a year.

[LordKyrone]

I do not think subs going down have anything to do with guild wars or diablo at all. Their sales are going down because they keep promising to add content then not delivering, every update brings new bugs, there are a lot of game breaking bugs being ignored and rumour has it that during an interview it was said that ranked warzones were not being introduced in 1.3?

 

So what was the point of even adding War Hero gear?! to create a huge divide between players with no lives and those that have one?

 

If EA want to get their subs up rather than adding stupid things to the game like pets, maybe try fixing what they break and giving the content that they promise.

[Valkirus]

Hard to see the future is.... Even if this game had ten million subs!

 

I think this game is going bad because of people posting here a bit too much. And everyone understands too much about everything.

 

we have the WoW cryiers, PvPers, and the ones loooking for the next big MMO read GW2

 

If you compare it to WoW at launch with a better more happy economy World wide and less MMO competition, it launched had 1 mill drop to .5 mill in 6 months then went up to 4 mill down to 3 and a spillar up to 8, 10, and then 12, and now 10 or 9.

 

SWTOR started at 1.7 million is down to 1.3 and is nearly 5 months old. The new content for SWTOR looks awesome.

The only people I understand in all these posts here are the ones looking for Server transfers in empty pop, but the amazing legacy is also a problem for that.

 

I wonder what all these naysayers would say if TOR has 2 million + after a year.... I am sure we will find the usual bandwagon jump of how good this game is, and how it reinvented MMO....

 

As Plageus says humans are really boring and predictable!

 

Where you getting your so called numbers from about WoW? I never remember WoW ever dropping in sub numbers from quarter to quarter until after Cata was launched. Link or it is speculation.

Edited May 9, 2012 by Valkirus

[Vlacke]

yup because another MMO they handled, warhammer online, proves they can get 2 million subs after a year.

 

This isn't Warhammer online, they cannot even be compared because SWTOR is a way superior game so you need to get your facts straight and cut back on the cliche nonsense everyone here is repeating like brainless parrots, it gets old after a while.

 

Bioware needs to get their act together and start delivering certain features pronto.

Edited May 9, 2012 by Vlacke

[arcdaemon]

Hard to see the future is.... Even if this game had ten million subs!

 

I think this game is going bad because of people posting here a bit too much. And everyone understands too much about everything.

 

we have the WoW cryiers, PvPers, and the ones loooking for the next big MMO read GW2

 

If you compare it to WoW at launch with a better more happy economy World wide and less MMO competition, it launched had 1 mill drop to .5 mill in 6 months then went up to 4 mill down to 3 and a spillar up to 8, 10, and then 12, and now 10 or 9.

 

SWTOR started at 1.7 million is down to 1.3 and is nearly 5 months old. The new content for SWTOR looks awesome.

The only people I understand in all these posts here are the ones looking for Server transfers in empty pop, but the amazing legacy is also a problem for that.

 

I wonder what all these naysayers would say if TOR has 2 million + after a year.... I am sure we will find the usual bandwagon jump of how good this game is, and how it reinvented MMO....

 

As Plageus says humans are really boring and predictable!

 

 

lol like this game could ever get 5 million this is the tortanic it will be at 5 hundred thousand by the end of the year and will go f2p

[BJWyler]

Are you nuts? EA would sooner let it limp on life support than release a prime IP back into the wild where it has the potential to be a competitor. Warhammer is a prime example of this, they slashed investment to the bone and put incompetents in charge of it then shipped staff off to their new shiney (SWTOR).

 

Its one thing to bin some no name junk but they will never release a valuable IP whether they are making use of it or not, think of the craptastic 1994 fantastic 4 film which was made purely to hold onto the IP, Im not comparing SWTOR to it of course, merely showing an example of the what companies will do to prevent the loss of an IP.

 

I could be wrong, but I don't think EA owns "Star Wars". I think Big George can take his IP and tell EA to stuff it if he wants. Of course, that's just generalizing since I don't know the details of the contract, but if LA wants a big SW title out there, EA can't do anything about it.

 

because multiple announcements totally help dying servers.

 

And incomplete and buggy server transfers would only make the situation worse. Again - a little bit less hypocriticism, please.

 

new players won't be inclined to join after they see the forums exposing BW's fails:rak_01:

 

Wrong again - was just in game the other day with someone who just got the game and started playing. He said he takes what is said in the forums with a grain of salt. Actually laughed and said that the worse the trolls bash a game the more he's interested in at least seeing what all the QQing was about. So far, he indicated that he's enjoying the content at this point.

 

(and for the Trolls, sorry, don't remember the char name off the top of my head, nor did I take screens of the logs - I was too busy enjoying the content myself).

 

BJ

Edited May 9, 2012 by BJWyler

[Goretzu]

This isn't Warhammer online, they cannot even be compared because SWTOR is a way superior game so you need to get your facts straight and cut back on the cliche nonsense everyone here is repeating like brainless parrots, it gets old after a while.

 

Bioware needs to get their act together and start delivering certain features pronto.

 

Warhammer had and has much, much, much better RvR and PvP.

[arcdaemon]

This isn't Warhammer online, they cannot even be compared because SWTOR is a way superior game so you need to get your facts straight and cut back on the cliche nonsense everyone here is repeating like brainless parrots, it gets old after a while.

 

Bioware needs to get their act together and start delivering certain features pronto.

 

 

 

your wrong as usual swtor is a mediocre mmo at best.

[rakuenCallisto]

This isn't Warhammer online, they cannot even be compared because SWTOR is a way superior game so you need to get your facts straight and cut back on the cliche nonsense everyone here is repeating like brainless parrots, it gets old after a while.

 

Bioware needs to get their act together and start delivering certain features pronto.

 

This.

 

It's astonishing the incompetence of BW.

 

You'd think after the 1.2 fiasco they'd be more focused on priorities.

 

Then again, it's fairly obvious they're bribing people who are unsubbing with free months.

 

It's pretty hilarious and pathetic that this is the 2nd month in a row they've given free months.

 

I've been unsubbed for both and yet I can still play. I wonder if this is to keep me around for newer content (yea right) or just to have me officially listed as "active" (more likely).

[mothermonterr]

This isn't Warhammer online, they cannot even be compared because SWTOR is a way superior game so you need to get your facts straight and cut back on the cliche nonsense everyone here is repeating like brainless parrots, it gets old after a while.

 

Bioware needs to get their act together and start delivering certain features pronto.

 

Swtor, a superior game? It doesn't even have open RvR lakes, it had ONE, and they screwed that up with people benefitting from the broken-ness of it all. Superior indeed.

[Wrakk]

Warhammer had and has much, much, much better RvR and PvP.

 

agree 100%...

 

...and only time shall show how this SWTOR is actually superior. Ilum was a bad start

 

But we're off to a wrong topic; what really amazes me is how they didn't learn anything from the past mistakes / low pops., cross server pvp, etc.

Edited May 9, 2012 by Wrakk

[Darkulous]

Does anyone here honestly believe there are 1.3 million active players as of right now?

[BJWyler]

I do not think subs going down have anything to do with guild wars or diablo at all. Their sales are going down because they keep promising to add content then not delivering, every update brings new bugs, there are a lot of game breaking bugs being ignored and rumour has it that during an interview it was said that ranked warzones were not being introduced in 1.3?

 

So what was the point of even adding War Hero gear?! to create a huge divide between players with no lives and those that have one?

 

If EA want to get their subs up rather than adding stupid things to the game like pets, maybe try fixing what they break and giving the content that they promise.

 

Rumors are troll-bait. They mention the Warzones in the official podcast transcript:

 

http://www.swtor.com/blog/star-wars-old-republic-official-podcast-episode-i

 

not quite halfway down, once you get past the rocket boot nonsense.

 

BJ

Edited May 9, 2012 by BJWyler

[Dezzi]

Does anyone here honestly believe there are 1.3 million active players as of right now?

 

Definitely not, but I do believe that there are 1.3 million people with time on their accounts.

[ohpleasework]

I could be wrong, but I don't think EA owns "Star Wars". I think Big George can take his IP and tell EA to stuff it if he wants. Of course, that's just generalizing since I don't know the details of the contract, but if LA wants a big SW title out there, EA can't do anything about it.

 

That's correct: licensing IP like this is usually really specific with various caveats. For example, it's likely EA is allowed to make a Star Wars MMO, but only in this particular time frame (Old Republic), and if it never features X, Y, or Z characters/planets/technology/etc. This allows Lucas Arts to license the IP in another way to another publisher. This same type of thing happens for films, toys, comic books, etc.

 

For example, Sony Online Entertainment currently has a Clone Wars era MMO going.

Edited May 9, 2012 by ohpleasework

[RedWolfs]

The approximate total for end-user sales is actually 2.4 million.

 

 

 

Source: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ERTS/1675578999x0x566984/c10f605c-3487-488e-ad86-b5bb74fe2408/Q4_FY12_Script.pdf

 

Yes they have a horrible retention rate for a reason. Look at yesterdays patch, it was completely untested. There is no way that a 100% instant bug, got past a competent internal testing. Either the testers are incompetent, or the managers pushed a badly bugged patch that really didn't fix anything I can find in game. I still have all the sound and latency issues that came in game with 1.2, their patch triage is badly broken to say the least.

 

They dropped from 2.4 million to 1.3 million in less than 6 months. You can not call that a ringing success. What's worse for Bioware is that does not take into account the rage quits over the mishandled release of 1.2. I will be blown away if there are not steep declines over the next two reporting periods if Bioware does not change fast. Given the situation they need to merge servers, and prepare for SWTOR to have 500000-700000 subscribers by December 2012.

 

That prediction is based on the six month subscribers such as Roqu, who have already abandoned SWTOR, but have open subs that have not run out keeping them on the books. Just how many three month and six month subscriptions are in this status right now we can only speculate. EA has not released this information to their investors, but they will over the next two quarters as they are forced to admit it as they are taken off the books. Do not be surprised if they add one more free month between now and the end of the third quarter to stretch out the losses over three quarters instead of taking them all in two.

 

Lucas Arts chose badly when they picked Bioware. This team was simply not ready to operate a released subscription based MMORPG. They need to talk to Smedly from SWG to tell them not to be like him, sadly they are repeating too many of the mistakes he made and now admits to. Seriously MMO companies need badly to start hiring MMORPG historians to help them not repeat the same mistakes every other failure of an MMO has made.

[rakuenCallisto]

Yes they have a horrible retention rate for a reason. Look at yesterdays patch, it was completely untested. There is no way that a 100% instant bug, got past a competent internal testing. Either the testers are incompetent, or the managers pushed a badly bugged patch that really didn't fix anything I can find in game. I still have all the sound and latency issues that came in game with 1.2, their patch triage is badly broken to say the least.

 

They dropped from 2.4 million to 1.3 million in less than 6 months. You can not call that a ringing success. What's worse for Bioware is that does not take into account the rage quits over the mishandled release of 1.2. I will be blown away if there are not steep declines over the next two reporting periods if Bioware does not change fast. Given the situation they need to merge servers, and prepare for SWTOR to have 500000-700000 subscribers by December 2012.

 

That prediction is based on the six month subscribers such as Roqu, who have already abandoned SWTOR, but have open subs that have not run out keeping them on the books. Just how many three month and six month subscriptions are in this status right now we can only speculate. EA has not released this information to their investors, but they will over the next two quarters as they are forced to admit it as they are taken off the books. Do not be surprised if they add one more free month between now and the end of the third quarter to stretch out the losses over three quarters instead of taking them all in two.

 

Lucas Arts chose badly when they picked Bioware. This team was simply not ready to operate a released subscription based MMORPG. They need to talk to Smedly from SWG to tell them not to be like him, sadly they are repeating too many of the mistakes he made and now admits to. Seriously MMO companies need badly to start hiring MMORPG historians to help them not repeat the same mistakes every other failure of an MMO has made.

 

Perfectly put.

[sensiblepoast]

i wonder if this was before or after the announcement of subs dropping 25 percent

 

call me crazy here,but i wouldnt consider a game stable and profitable that just got there subs dropped 25 percent.but meh,maybe bioware thinks investors are as stupid as there players are.gonna be sad when reality hits them and they relize that investors are a bit smarter then your average player

 

On the contrary.

 

It is profitable because it's not losing money. Yet.

 

It is stable because, hey, the retention rate (aka sub drops) over time may be constantish.

 

So there. Stable and profitable and still losing subs TBH I'd be more concerned about why in theory subs have only dropped 25% but online population has plummeted way more than that. People with active subs aren't bothering to play your game? Not good way beyond that 25%.

Edited May 9, 2012 by sensiblepoast