EA to Release Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2012 Results on May 7, 2012

[Cerion]

Let's be fair, though. The "1.7 million subs" is also the optimism echo chamber. Someone said that must be the number and if we repeat it enough it must be true. I don't believe TOR has 1.7 million subs just as I don't believe WoW has 10.5 million subs. The reality of the situation lies somewhere between the two chambers.

 

Unfortunately, we're not entirely privy to that information. So the wheel keeps spinnin'.

 

Actually. No. This is one of the problems with the interwebs. If one side broaches an opinion, it automatically has an equal weight to the other side. That is a rhetorical fallacy, and logically bu||*****.

 

That 'someone that said a number' is a financial officer of a publicly held corporation who is bound legally to report accurate numbers. The 1.7 million figure is as accurate as you're going to find, and as close to factual data you can hope to have. That person has a responsibility to shareholders, and can be held accountable for misdeeds.

 

Contrast this to some anonymous troll on the interwebs spouts an opposing number, without any factual basis, without any responsibility, and without any accountability for any falsehood perpetuated.

 

The fact that anyone gives equal credence to both views says more about that person's lack of intelligence than anything about the game.

 

So no. There's nothing fair about it, nor should there be. One side is, in fact, dealing in reality. The other side is dealing in self-validating hogwash. I mean, the naysayers can't even comprehend the difference between server population and concurrent players and how that relates to server status.

 

Now you may not like the game. That's fine. But don't pretend that this view is held by a majority of players.

Edited April 24, 2012 by Cerion

[sambeta]

On the subject of subs being at the rate they are. Yes they may very well be 1.7 million, however what about all those people who unsubbed? Remember their accounts still count as subscribers at least until the next bill date. I doubt that there are really 1.7 million players, but there are no doubt 1.7 million subs.... At least until peoples subs end.

[Cerion]

Oh, and since I haven't given my prediction yet, I'm going to say SWTOR remains strong, with somewhere between 1.5 to 1.7 million subs/accounts.

[Sanxxx]

Quote: Originally Posted by Captiosus

 

Let's be fair, though. The "1.7 million subs" is also the optimism echo chamber. Someone said that must be the number and if we repeat it enough it must be true. I don't believe TOR has 1.7 million subs just as I don't believe WoW has 10.5 million subs. The reality of the situation lies somewhere between the two chambers.

 

Unfortunately, we're not entirely privy to that information. So the wheel keeps spinnin'.

Actually. No. This is one of the problems with the interwebs. If one side broaches an opinion, it automatically has an equal weight to the other side. That is a rhetorical fallacy, and logically bu||*****.

 

That 'someone that said a number' is a financial officer of a publicly held corporation who is bound legally to report accurate numbers. The 1.7 million figure is as accurate as you're going to find, and as close to factual data you can hope to have. That person has a responsibility to shareholders, and can be held accountable for misdeeds.

 

Contrast this to some anonymous troll on the interwebs spouts an opposing number, without any factual basis, without any responsibility, and without any accountability for any falsehood perpetuated.

 

The fact that anyone gives equal credence to both views says more about that person's lack of intelligence than anything about the game.

 

So no. There's nothing fair about it, nor should there be. One side is, in fact, dealing in reality. The other side is dealing in self-validating hogwash. I mean, the naysayers can't even comprehend the difference between server population and concurrent players and how that relates to server status.

 

Now you may not like the game. That's fine. But don't pretend that this view is held by a majority of players.

 

The 1.7m was, as you say, probably the most accurate figure at the time. However time has moved on and the vast majority of evidence (ancedotal or otherwise) would tend to suggest that the present number is somewhat lower and will likely be lower still when the 3/6 months suns expire towards the end May/Aug.

 

Therefore to blindly dismiss his 'The reality of the situation lies somewhere between the two chambers' when that would seem to be a rational proposition is to, as you say, 'says more about that person's lack of intelligence'.

Edited April 24, 2012 by Sanxxx

[shepardcomander]

 

Number four is silly and isn't happening, EA worth 5.22 billion dollars, strong sales from ME 3, dead space, sims 3 and all related DLC that goes with it, plus the sequel to Command and Conquer has just been announced. Also on a final note 1.5 million subscriptions from TOR equals 216 million dollars a year alone with out sales

 

EA stock is going down. When tor was released EA was near $21. Today it is less than $15.

[Goretzu]

The 1.7m was, as you say, probably the most accurate figure at the time. However time has moved on and the vast majority of evidence (ancedotal or otherwise) would tend to suggest that the present number is somewhat lower and will likely be lower still when the 3/6 months suns expire towards the end May/Aug.

 

Therefore to blindly dismiss his 'The reality of the situation lies somewhere between the two chambers' when that would seem to be a rational proposition is to, as you say, 'says more about that person's lack of intelligence'.

 

I can't see it being more than 1.7 million, and I can't see it being 1.7 million still.

 

On the other hand even 1 million is still very successful if SWTOR can retain it long term.

[shepardcomander]

Yes yes all 1.7 mil unsubscribed and are only counted because of the free 30 days.

 

 

at last you understand the month give away so coincidentally close to the quarterly financial statement

[DieAlteHexe]

Oh, and since I haven't given my prediction yet, I'm going to say SWTOR remains strong, with somewhere between 1.5 to 1.7 million subs/accounts.

 

Eh, what the hell...a prediction before I go get a couple hours gaming in before I have to be a responsible adult.

 

I say: 750k to 1 mil.

 

There.

[Cerion]

The 1.7m was, as you say, probably the most accurate figure at the time. However time has moved on and the vast majority of evidence (ancedotal or otherwise) would tend to suggest that the present number is somewhat lower and will likely be lower still when the 3/6 months suns expire towards the end May/Aug.

 

Therefore to blindly dismiss his 'The reality of the situation lies somewhere between the two chambers' when that would seem to be a rational proposition is to, as you say, 'says more about that person's lack of intelligence'.

 

And that figure was re-iterated not more than a few days ago by company officials.

 

Now you claim there is a VAST majority of evidence, anecdotal or 'otherwise'. You have no other evidence EXCEPT anecdotal. What does your 'otherwise' evidence refer to? You have zero factual, official, or repeatable evidence to fall back on.

 

For gawds sake, of COURSE it lies somewhere between...the point isn't that it lies between them. The point is that the reality is so close to one chamber (1.7 million), that the other chamber is inconsequential. So yes, you are correct that this analysis reflects on the person's intelligence....care for another go?

[Sanxxx]

Eh, what the hell...a prediction before I go get a couple hours gaming in before I have to be a responsible adult.

 

I say: 750k to 1 mil.

 

There.

 

Dittto on the responsible bit . As Q4 ended 31st March I'm going for 1.2-1.4m.

[Cerion]

Eh, what the hell...a prediction before I go get a couple hours gaming in before I have to be a responsible adult.

 

I say: 750k to 1 mil.

 

There.

 

Well, at least you'll be pleasantly surprised when it exceeds those numbers. Of course others will be apoplectic with rage.

[DieAlteHexe]

Well, at least you'll be pleasantly surprised when it exceeds those numbers. Of course others will be apoplectic with rage.

 

I hope it does! But I'm not one to hold up sub-bases to the Almighty WoW.

 

So long as a game brings in enough income to grow and evolve, I'm happy.

 

As for the "ragers", well, it's their blood-pressure.

[Sanxxx]

And that figure was re-iterated not more than a few days ago by company officials.

 

Now you claim there is a VAST majority of evidence, anecdotal or 'otherwise'. You have no other evidence EXCEPT anecdotal. What does your 'otherwise' evidence refer to? You have zero factual, official, or repeatable evidence to fall back on.

 

For gawds sake, of COURSE it lies somewhere between...the point isn't that it lies between them. The point is that the reality is so close to one chamber (1.7 million), that the other chamber is inconsequential. So yes, you are correct that this analysis reflects on the person's intelligence....care for another go?

 

Absolutely..it's so easy with the irrational.

 

Please point to the 'company official' (I assume you mean EA) who restated that the figure was current. The article to which I assume you are going to refer, if you read it carefully, rehashes the one and only quoted figure that was made some time ago i.e 1.7.

 

Of course there is no official update, we're all aware of that, the expression 'ancedotal or otherwise' is just that an expression, I could have said 'any or all evidence to date' but again you would have blindly resorted to 'official'.

 

Other than bashing the original OPs post, I'm not sure what point you are trying to make.

 

I'll try once more. his assumption that 'it lies somewhere between' is a valid and rational conclusion, note he doesn't suggest where in between,

 

Your assumption however 'the reality is so close to one chamber (1.7 million)' for current subs has nothing to back it up be it official , ancedotal, circumstantial, statistical, analogical or testimonial.

[Cerion]

I hope it does! But I'm not one to hold up sub-bases to the Almighty WoW.

 

So long as a game brings in enough income to grow and evolve, I'm happy.

 

As for the "ragers", well, it's their blood-pressure.

 

For me, it's not about subs really either. It's about this ridiculous fantasy that the naysayers have constructed. Like the game, hate the game...I'm fine with peoples likes and dislikes. We're not all going to like the same things.

 

But then to extrapolate one's own experience into some sort of monolithic movement when the hard evidence is against you, is just plain silly. Another example if misinterpreted preceptions: Naysayers like to claim that their dwindling friends list is evidence of the games demise. Well guess what...you likely share the same likes and dislikes as your friends. Of course they're all going to quit if they dislike the game. You can't then extrapolate that problem onto the whole player base and assume everyone is quitting. It could be nothing more than you and your friends belong to that group of 300k+ players who've quit. It's as simple as that.

[DieAlteHexe]

For me, it's not about subs really either. It's about this ridiculous fantasy that the naysayers have constructed. Like the game, hate the game...I'm fine with peoples likes and dislikes. We're not all going to like the same things.

 

But then to extrapolate one's own experience into some sort of monolithic movement when the hard evidence is against you, is just plain silly. Another example if misinterpreted preceptions: Naysayers like to claim that their dwindling friends list is evidence of the games demise. Well guess what...you likely share the same likes and dislikes as your friends. Of course they're all going to quit if they dislike the game. You can't then extrapolate that problem onto the whole player base and assume everyone is quitting. It could be nothing more than you and your friends belong to that group of 300k+ players who've quit. It's as simple as that.

 

I...I...wait...did you just make total sense?

 

Yes, yes you did. OMG!

[Goretzu]

And that figure was re-iterated not more than a few days ago by company officials.

 

Now you claim there is a VAST majority of evidence, anecdotal or 'otherwise'. You have no other evidence EXCEPT anecdotal. What does your 'otherwise' evidence refer to? You have zero factual, official, or repeatable evidence to fall back on.

 

For gawds sake, of COURSE it lies somewhere between...the point isn't that it lies between them. The point is that the reality is so close to one chamber (1.7 million), that the other chamber is inconsequential. So yes, you are correct that this analysis reflects on the person's intelligence....care for another go?

 

 

They've said there are still 1.7 subs now?

 

Really?

 

Does that count 30 day free subs?

 

Where have they said that?

[chaosdefined]

To make a prediction...I'd say by May the number of Active Subscribers will be around 1.4million.

 

Basing my prediction on their last sub release which was 1.7million. I do feel like they've lost a lot of players, due to the amount of servers which have become a lot quieter and lighter in population these last few months.

 

I don't think the numbers have dropped drastically, certainly not below 1million anyway. However I'm doubting that they'll have gained to more than 2million either.

 

Once they fix the bugs, add more content and features and stagger the downtimes for other regions I think we'll see the playerbase start to grow more.

[WhiskyJax]

Seeing how there seems to be around 100-150k concurrent players i am going to base the total subs at around 850k-1 000 000. Until they get the transfers set up and do something with the servers the game will feel dead Hell right now evern if we had 4million players we would only have an average of 925 players per side.That's it.

 

Times are a changing and i think that the time of the mmorpg is coming to an end. The problem is that players have come to expect too much for new games. You cannot have an mmorpg with up to date graphics and up to date content to keep the heavies around and as we have seen with Swtor even a strong licence will not keep people around. When people are lambasting the heck out of D3 you know there is a problem with the currrent state of gaming.

[Cerion]

Absolutely..it's so easy with the irrational.

 

Nice...Ad hominem attack. I must be getting close to winning this argument for you to resort thusly.

 

Please point to the 'company official' (I assume you mean EA) who restated that the figure was current. The article to which I assume you are going to refer, if you read it carefully, rehashes the one and only quoted figure that was made some time ago i.e 1.7.

 

And when I DO point it out, I'm sure you'll have a ready made, contrary answer waiting. I could find it. I've read it, and it's been referred to by others in this debate. But we both know it won't sway you one bit, so is there really a point?

 

Of course there is no official update, we're all aware of that, the expression 'ancedotal or otherwise' is just that an expression, I could have said 'any or all evidence to date' but again you would have blindly resorted to 'official'.

 

Then provide your evidence (actually, you don't have to. I've seen all the circular evidence pointing from one blog post to another blog post back to the original blog post). Because my evidence is clear. My evidence is reality based. My evidence has a preponderance of legal force behind it. If that means I'm 'blindly' following facts, then I guess the same could be said about me 'blindly' believing the Earth is round, lol.

 

Other than bashing the original OPs post, I'm not sure what point you are trying to make.

 

Characterize it as bashing if you want, I was merely pointing out the ridiculous notion that both sides of this analysis have equal weight...which they do not.

 

I'll try once more. his assumption that 'it lies somewhere between' is a valid and rational conclusion, note he doesn't suggest where in between,

 

Your assumption however 'the reality is so close to one chamber (1.7 million)' for current subs has nothing to back it up be it official , ancedotal, circumstantial, statistical, analogical or testimonial.

 

Your quibbling degree, which is a rhetorical fallacy. It's like saying the Earth lies somewhere between the Sun and the edge of the Galaxy. Of course it's true, but that doesn't tell you anything about the reality of where the Earth lies. This game is FAR from failing...that notion is at the edge of the galaxy.

Edited April 24, 2012 by Cerion

[Goretzu]

To make a prediction...I'd say by May the number of Active Subscribers will be around 1.4million.

 

Basing my prediction on their last sub release which was 1.7million. I do feel like they've lost a lot of players, due to the amount of servers which have become a lot quieter and lighter in population these last few months.

 

I don't think the numbers have dropped drastically, certainly not below 1million anyway. However I'm doubting that they'll have gained to more than 2million either.

 

Once they fix the bugs, add more content and features and stagger the downtimes for other regions I think we'll see the playerbase start to grow more.

 

 

 

It's hard to say, with the last numbers servers were very much quiter, but subs had hardly dropped (they'd lost some, but replaced them with new sales).

 

Which suggests SWTOR has a lot of players that don't play very much at all, but still have a sub.

[Liquidacid]

wait wait are we playing this like The Price is Right?

 

if so my bet is 1 more sub than the guy who bet the highest

[Goretzu]

wait wait are we playing this like The Price is Right?

 

if so my bet is 1 more sub than the guy who bet the highest

 

1,700,001 then.

[DieAlteHexe]

It's hard to say, with the last numbers servers were very much quiter, but subs had hardly dropped (they'd lost some, but replaced them with new sales).

 

Which suggests SWTOR has a lot of players that don't play very much at all, but still have a sub.

 

What follows is anecdotal and I freely claim it as such:

 

I think we are seeing a maturing player-base. Many of us are older now, have more responsibilities, less free time to put in marathon gaming sessions. I also think WoW showed that there was room in the genre for this sort of player and smart they were to provide for 'em. Look where it got them, despite old-timers having hissy fits about "dumbing down" (and I don't disagree with that but I counter that with this is business and any company is going to for that bottom line).

 

I actually have MORE time now than back in the "good ol' days" because I'm retired but I imagine the average gamer is now in the work/family stage and might only squeeze in an hour or two a day (if that) and some longer hours on a weekend day.

[Sanxxx]

Quote: Originally Posted by Cerion

 

For me, it's not about subs really either. It's about this ridiculous fantasy that the naysayers have constructed. Like the game, hate the game...I'm fine with peoples likes and dislikes. We're not all going to like the same things.

 

But then to extrapolate one's own experience into some sort of monolithic movement when the hard evidence is against you, is just plain silly. Another example if misinterpreted preceptions: Naysayers like to claim that their dwindling friends list is evidence of the games demise. Well guess what...you likely share the same likes and dislikes as your friends. Of course they're all going to quit if they dislike the game. You can't then extrapolate that problem onto the whole player base and assume everyone is quitting. It could be nothing more than you and your friends belong to that group of 300k+ players who've quit. It's as simple as that.

I...I...wait...did you just make total sense?

 

Yes, yes you did. OMG!

 

Can't disagree with the first para.

 

But onto the second...

 

You can extropolate based on limited data but the accuracy of the result is flakey at best.

 

If I take my own experience, my guild at beginning of Jan was 250+ with 150+ online nightly, comprising of players from various countries and various ages. The remaining players c10 joined another guild and we disbanded.

 

On that basis I could extrapolate that only c5% of the population remain and hence subs are c90k, that is plainly ludicrous. However my own experience coupled with that of others who have posted here and in other forums suggest a steeper than might be resonably expected decline.

 

As I posted above, my own Q4 prediction was 1.2-1.4,, Q1/2 2013 would be siginificanltly lower if predicted now however BW have time to influence and change.

 

...all said It's Para 1 that's more important.

Edited April 24, 2012 by Sanxxx

[Tiaa]

Go on record!

 

Post your predictions and why!

I just activated my account a little while ago with this timecard I had lying about...and...

 

"Free trial, free trial, free trial...come back, free trial."

 

That's all I have to say to anyone who thinks subscription numbers haven't changed for the better or worse. The fact Daniel Erickson says, "the subscription numbers haven't changed" is mendacious in itself.

 

Not that it really matters what anyone on this forum says as most people that'll quit or continue playing won't bother coming to these forums; I don't blame them. There are people who really like this game, people like me who have nothing else to play and people that quit.

 

Servers aren't dead like people keep assuming though. However, if you go to TOR Status you can safely assume that any server in the grey has less than 500 players at any given time. It appears people are flooding to the two or three more populated servers JUST to play with others.

 

My prediction is more of my opinion on what would probably be better for this game.

 

And that is that this game goes free to play with a legacy cash shop.

Edited April 24, 2012 by Tiaa