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EA to Release Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2012 Results on May 7, 2012


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Without reading specific reports, or looking at the past... but basing it on the products and market, they will do well.

 

They have another MMO, the secret world, coming soon.

 

Also when people sell their stocks it affects the company. So after the stock rose from swtor release, a lot of people sold thier stocks which resulted in a decrease in stock values. Im guessing since the stocks are based on implicit value and not explicit.

 

So therefore the stock prices are not an indication of the business's success, but the projects that make a return on the investment, since the stock price is seasonal to sales/release of games.

 

edit: Imo, if the stocks are indeed implicit, then they should also offer bonds, at least as an alternative. It is better to invest with bonds which seem a lot more ethical as a partial business owner instead of a day trader with implicit stocks.

Edited by VegaPhone
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This response is not to poke hole in TOR at all. I’m a fan first critic second

 

Whatever the number will be it will be highly inflated. Who ever EA has managing their books is like a magician, they make you think the illusion is real.

 

The magic trick...

 

EA came out stating they had 9.3 million registered users on EA Origins after launch… That number makes you go holy s@#$ right?!? 9.3 million people registered for origin after launch!!!:eek:

Now for the illusion:D

 

What you didn’t see was what my left hand was doing…

 

If you bought any sims product (from steam or hardcopy) and redeem any of free credits from your game purchase to get free stuff from the sims store, your now a registered EA origins user.

 

If you purchased any DLC for games like Mass effect and dragon age on consol or PC or redeeming any pre-purchased promotions, you need to redeem your code online through EA and guess what your now a registered EA origins user

 

If registered any of your hardcopy games your now a registered origins user….

 

These are a few tricks EA uses to inflate there registered Origins numbers:cool:

 

Its Pretty sweet magic right? :DCause my concurrent users and user's come back and make purchases from my store is a lot lower then I'm making it out to be

 

You might very well be correct on the Origin user numbers - that sounds like something any company would do. However, I do not think you can apply the same to subscriber numbers. Either you have an SWTOR account with an active subscription or you don't. I don't see a way to "artificially" include more people in it. The numbers given in investor calls are as good as quaranteed to be 100% correct. If you lie to your investors, you go to jail - simple as that.

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The numbers given in investor calls are as good as quaranteed to be 100% correct. If you lie to your investors, you go to jail - simple as that.

 

Absolutely , although there is no obligation to quote subscription numbers for one of many games you produce/own, you could choose to stick to the bare financial facts, revenues, profits, costs etc and rely on the 'get out' forward looking statements.

 

If a recent release was doing well you may quote its subscription numbers for effect, if it's not doing so well perhaps you wouldn't.

 

I happen to think the end March numbers will look reasonable, the free 30 days has no affect, and those who subscribed or 3/6 months will still be counted, whether or not they still play is a different matter.

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Without reading specific reports, or looking at the past... but basing it on the products and market, they will do well.

 

They have another MMO, the secret world, coming soon.

 

Also when people sell their stocks it affects the company. So after the stock rose from swtor release, a lot of people sold thier stocks which resulted in a decrease in stock values. Im guessing since the stocks are based on implicit value and not explicit.

 

So therefore the stock prices are not an indication of the business's success, but the projects that make a return on the investment, since the stock price is seasonal to sales/release of games.

 

edit: Imo, if the stocks are indeed implicit, then they should also offer bonds, at least as an alternative. It is better to invest with bonds which seem a lot more ethical as a partial business owner instead of a day trader with implicit stocks.

 

Stock prices reflect a number of observable factors, revenue being one of them. Revenue is the same of all of the company's cashflows for the period. Receivables account for exepcted cashflows for a future period. Stock price also reflects other factors, including indebtedness, earnings per share ratios, margin, etc. So much information in fact, that mom and pop investors have no chance, and actually individual investors make up a small fraction of its public holdings and generally have no impact on share price. The activities of the pension funds and hedge funds are what really drive the stock price.

 

Also, not sure what you're talking about regarding bonds. EA issues 0.75% convertible senior bonds due 2016 in July 2011:

 

(12) FINANCING ARRANGEMENT

 

0.75% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2016

 

In July 2011, we issued $632.5 million aggregate principal amount of 0.75% Convertible Senior Notes due 2016 (the “Notes”). The Notes are senior unsecured obligations which pay interest semiannually in arrears at a rate of 0.75 percent per annum on January 15 and July 15 of each year, beginning on January 15, 2012 and will mature on July 15, 2016, unless earlier purchased or converted in accordance with their terms prior to such date. The Notes are senior in right of payment to any unsecured indebtedness that is expressly subordinated in right of payment to the Notes.

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I'm still intrigued as to how they'll count that.

 

Everything about MMORPGs says they should, but will they?

 

Why not? And how is it any more devious than forcing people to sign up for 1 year in order to get a free mount and free game in order to inflate the decreasing subscription numbers?

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Stock prices are only affected by offer and demand. Hardly an indicator for anything. A major reason, on the other hand, for the degradation(did i write it correctly?) of our society. It is a culture of manipulating opinion by any means necessary, mostly with lies (or rumours, which tend to have the same meaning in a lot of cases). Stock prices are a form of slavery, for those depended on them.
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I don't think TOR has too much to worry about with GW2 at most GW2 will be the game people play along with whatever they are subscribing to rather than instead of...in fact I'm betting that GW2 doesn't break half a million sales in it's first two months.

 

Don't bet on it. They have 50 servers planned for both beta and launch and it will have an impact, new AAA MMOs always do. Now, will that impact really effect SWTOR? I doubt it.

 

Be aware that GW2 is probably the most hyped release in recent MMO history. The biggest worry is initial feedback from many that have been in beta is, and this is different for an MMO, it is actually living up to the hype. I personally believe WoW has more to worry about with the release of GW2 than SWTOR does. But time will tell soon enough.

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Stock prices reflect a number of observable factors, revenue being one of them. Revenue is the same of all of the company's cashflows for the period. Receivables account for exepcted cashflows for a future period. Stock price also reflects other factors, including indebtedness, earnings per share ratios, margin, etc. So much information in fact, that mom and pop investors have no chance, and actually individual investors make up a small fraction of its public holdings and generally have no impact on share price. The activities of the pension funds and hedge funds are what really drive the stock price.

 

Also, not sure what you're talking about regarding bonds. EA issues 0.75% convertible senior bonds due 2016 in July 2011:

 

(12) FINANCING ARRANGEMENT

 

0.75% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2016

 

In July 2011, we issued $632.5 million aggregate principal amount of 0.75% Convertible Senior Notes due 2016 (the “Notes”). The Notes are senior unsecured obligations which pay interest semiannually in arrears at a rate of 0.75 percent per annum on January 15 and July 15 of each year, beginning on January 15, 2012 and will mature on July 15, 2016, unless earlier purchased or converted in accordance with their terms prior to such date. The Notes are senior in right of payment to any unsecured indebtedness that is expressly subordinated in right of payment to the Notes.

 

If a lot of people sell then stock prices fall. Correct? That's the point. If its based on bonds then it wont be affected as much instead of with people buying and selling based on a specific situation. That same specific situation which may cause a dramatic increase of investments into stocks (which still inflate the actual value of the stock against the asset when the brokers sell it higher based on demand), or a lot of sales of the stocks lowering its value, and companies needing money and offering better deals to buy stocks.

 

Also i did not read any EA financial reports. I just heard thier stock dropped after a month of swtor release. Probably lowering the price after so many sold their stocks to profit from swtor release, and also so people can put money in again by seeing a drop, and sell when it goes up again. Rinse and repeat.

 

edit: also based on what you said, it being a small effect with public shares, and only pension and hedge funds affecting the price. Then what happened with the pension and hedge fund to cause a price drop? People just getting paid? Is that not the same as selling the stock, (but not public fund)?

Edited by VegaPhone
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If a lot of people sell then stock prices fall. Correct? That's the point. If its based on bonds then it wont be affected as much instead of with people buying and selling based on a specific situation. That same specific situation which may cause a dramatic increase of investments into stocks (which still inflate the actual value of the stock against the asset when the brokers sell it higher based on demand), or a lot of sales of the stocks lowering its value, and companies needing money and offering better deals to buy stocks.

 

Also i did not read any EA financial reports. I just heard thier stock dropped after a month of swtor release. Probably lowering the price after so many sold their stocks to profit from swtor release, and also so people can put money in again, and sell when it goes up again. Rinse and repeat.

 

I really don't think you're in a position to be having any kind of meaningful discussion on this topic so it's against my better judgment that I will try to resolve some of your misunderstandings:

 

1) If a lot of people sell the stock then prices fall? Not in the real world. Like I said, individual investors typically don't have much of an impact on stock prices because they hold so little too count, and there's not enough of them. It's the movements of the big institutional investors that really count.

 

2) I have no idea what you're talking about when you mean "inflate actual value of the stock." Sure, companies can be undervalued or overvalued, but that is a purely conceptual thing. The stock is worth what it's trading at, and the company reflects on its books the current capitalization (which includes value of issued shares). Companies don't "offer better deals" to sell stock. It's a public float. Investors come and go as they please. As mentioned in 1 above, movements by small shareholders (the general public) don't scare companies. In a few rare cases there can be a run on the stock, but again, that's led by the hedge and pension funds who are typically moving with a lot of research and often inside information in advance.

 

3) You mentioned short selling EA stock in December. That likely had absolutely nothing to do with SWTOR. More in line with EA's business as a whole. And, constantly shorting and covering your short position, as you suggested, is a very expensive endeavor. Something a day trader may do perhaps, but institutional investors typically do not do this. And again, on average, 50% of traders lose money on a bet. So again, it's a risky proposition and likely is not happening. Take a look at the trading volumes on any given time of any day for EA. Do you see these "wild swings in trading volume" that you suggest? No. Not happenig.

 

4) Issuing bonds or notes? Yeah, it's a decent way to raise capital. But then part of the whole reason EA went public in the first place was to...raise capital. They are capitalized to this amount. Bond issuances require....payment of interest. They mature, at which point, the company has to redeem (in laymans terms, BUY BACK the outstanding bonds). This is an expensive proposition, and really only useful for when a company needs cash fast for an acquisition or to refinance. The company would have to pay bankers a spread of 1-3%, lawyers 1%, accountants around $500k to execute a bond offering, and THEN have to pay out interest on top of that. Investors and shareholders also don't like to see debt (bonds/notes/etc.) on the company's balance sheet, as they represent long or short term liabilities. So, ideally, a public company will keep its capitalization as it stands on the public float, and raise operating cash through day-to-day operations.

 

If you are suggesting that a company "issue stock", well, that's just foolish. Then you deal with all sorts of regulatory issues and having to compensate current shareholders for dilution et.c etc. Not pretty.

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Stock prices are only affected by offer and demand. Hardly an indicator for anything. A major reason, on the other hand, for the degradation(did i write it correctly?) of our society. It is a culture of manipulating opinion by any means necessary, mostly with lies (or rumours, which tend to have the same meaning in a lot of cases). Stock prices are a form of slavery, for those depended on them.

 

Stock prices reflect what investors are willing to pay, based on countless man-hours of research and careful analysis. It's not as "random" as you suggest. And there are a whole lot of protections against fraud and stock price manipulation and generally misleading comments or material omisions which have resulted in many many people being investigated, charged and sent to jail. Don't be so pessimistic.

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Not quite. You should read the GMT time schedule. London is 5 hours ahead of US. You posted this at approximately 8pm EST, which would be 1am London. A couple hours later depending on which continental country you choose.

 

Ok how about now?

 

US 2 standard, rest light

 

EU 3 standard, rest light

 

Asia pacific 3 servers total, 1 heavy 2 standard.

 

1 am CEST, 8 am CEST, and at 12 am CEST. They might say that this game was a succes because they sold alot of copies, they might say that this game has alot of "Active" subscriptions because they just handed +30 days to active subscription timer. But people dont play and this game is far from success, just like recent releases under EA flag.

EA stocks went from 20$ in december to 14.90$ now.

Edited by Adderdin
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Ok how about now?

 

US 2 standard, rest light

 

EU 3 standard, rest light

 

Asia pacific 3 servers total, 1 heavy 2 standard.

 

1 am CEST, 8 am CEST, and at 12 am CEST. They might say that this game was a succes because they sold alot of copies, they might say that this game has alot of "Active" subscriptions because they just handed +30 days to active subscription timer. But people dont play and this game is far from success, just like recent releases under EA flag.

EA stocks went from 20$ in december to 14.90$ now.

 

Now it's 6pm in Hong Kong, 6am in the US, and 11am in London...truly peak times huh?

 

The CFO of EA said this game has a lot of subscribers (1.7 million and growing) on February 2, 2012. No idea what that number is now and I'm not going to guess.

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Why not? And how is it any more devious than forcing people to sign up for 1 year in order to get a free mount and free game in order to inflate the decreasing subscription numbers?

 

 

WoW?

 

Well some on here think it's "illegal". :confused:

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I really don't think you're in a position to be having any kind of meaningful discussion on this topic so it's against my better judgment that I will try to resolve some of your misunderstandings:

 

1) If a lot of people sell the stock then prices fall? Not in the real world. Like I said, individual investors typically don't have much of an impact on stock prices because they hold so little too count, and there's not enough of them. It's the movements of the big institutional investors that really count.

 

2) I have no idea what you're talking about when you mean "inflate actual value of the stock." Sure, companies can be undervalued or overvalued, but that is a purely conceptual thing. The stock is worth what it's trading at, and the company reflects on its books the current capitalization (which includes value of issued shares). Companies don't "offer better deals" to sell stock. It's a public float. Investors come and go as they please. As mentioned in 1 above, movements by small shareholders (the general public) don't scare companies. In a few rare cases there can be a run on the stock, but again, that's led by the hedge and pension funds who are typically moving with a lot of research and often inside information in advance.

 

3) You mentioned short selling EA stock in December. That likely had absolutely nothing to do with SWTOR. More in line with EA's business as a whole. And, constantly shorting and covering your short position, as you suggested, is a very expensive endeavor. Something a day trader may do perhaps, but institutional investors typically do not do this. And again, on average, 50% of traders lose money on a bet. So again, it's a risky proposition and likely is not happening. Take a look at the trading volumes on any given time of any day for EA. Do you see these "wild swings in trading volume" that you suggest? No. Not happenig.

 

4) Issuing bonds or notes? Yeah, it's a decent way to raise capital. But then part of the whole reason EA went public in the first place was to...raise capital. They are capitalized to this amount. Bond issuances require....payment of interest. They mature, at which point, the company has to redeem (in laymans terms, BUY BACK the outstanding bonds). This is an expensive proposition, and really only useful for when a company needs cash fast for an acquisition or to refinance. The company would have to pay bankers a spread of 1-3%, lawyers 1%, accountants around $500k to execute a bond offering, and THEN have to pay out interest on top of that. Investors and shareholders also don't like to see debt (bonds/notes/etc.) on the company's balance sheet, as they represent long or short term liabilities. So, ideally, a public company will keep its capitalization as it stands on the public float, and raise operating cash through day-to-day operations.

 

If you are suggesting that a company "issue stock", well, that's just foolish. Then you deal with all sorts of regulatory issues and having to compensate current shareholders for dilution et.c etc. Not pretty.

 

Not sure why you have to be condescending.

 

I just did not read about finance. Finance is easy, just like any other subject put enough time to understand. The difficult part is applying the math to new situations and analyzing that.

 

There are stock dealers who people buy stocks from the source and they will sell at a certain price, and people will pay a certain price for it as well. Thats what I read. That price will change based on demand.

 

Also there are stocks which are based on real assets and those that are not. Thats what I know, and read. However, that maybe more with other kinds of stocks.

 

As for raising capital, its only worth raising capital when there is room for growth. Its strange that EA with all its assets, still needs a lot of other peoples capital to grow. But generally speaking its better to use other peoples money to make big investments than their own. Thats why they do that, and of course people want the chance to profit from that. As for inflating the prices, it would be just like how day trading normally inflates prices with real estate.

 

Also, its not about individuals but group of individuals. Since its seasonal with investors buying when stock prices rise from a certain product, and then dropping, then people will follow that trend. So then its a large group of investors. Also large group investors would follow trends as well. So if small groups of individuals were selling, then the large groups would as well.

 

You know quite a bit, but I did not really get an answer as to why EA stocks dropped. As a whole. You mentioned hedge funding and pensions, but then say its based on insider trading. So are you suggesting there is inside trading that involves peoples pension, or even hedge funds?

Edited by VegaPhone
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Also i did not read any EA financial reports. I just heard thier stock dropped after a month of swtor release. Probably lowering the price after so many sold their stocks to profit from swtor release, and also so people can put money in again by seeing a drop, and sell when it goes up again. Rinse and repeat.

 

December 21st, EA's stock price was $20.30 Jan 20th it was $17.93 if investors bought stock at launch and sold 30 days later they did not do so for profit. The highest EA's stock has been since launch came at Jan 3rd $21.30. Today it sits at $14.88.

 

As another poster said, these price changes reflect much more than buying/selling. Investors look at company profit margins both real and projected. In particular, EA investors should look at the cost of developing tor, the money generated from initial sales, the ongoing income from subscriptions and the loss of subscription revenue due to the recent 30 day give away.

 

Conversley a company will look at the loss of a month's subscription income and compare it to a potential loss of stock share value. 1 month lost revenue compared to the lost stock revenue of not artificially extending everyone's "active account" and having to report the loss of all those accounts.

Edited by shepardcomander
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Well, I can imagine it won't be good.

 

I would personally be asking why my shares have dropped 25% in value in just the last quarter, and why they've dropped 40% in the last fiscal year.

 

Source: http://www.digitallook.com/cgi-bin/dlmedia/security.cgi?csi=20043&username=&ac=

 

Is it because of TOR not living up to the financial forecasts? Who knows... We'll find out in a couple of weeks I guess. ;)

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Not sure why you have to be condescending.

 

I just did not read about finance. Finance is easy, just like any other subject put enough time to understand. The difficult part is applying the math to new situations and analyzing that.

 

There are stock dealers who people buy stocks from the source and they will sell at a certain price, and people will pay a certain price for it as well. Thats what I read. That price will change based on demand.

 

Also there are stocks which are based on real assets and those that are not. Thats what I know, and read. However, that maybe more with other kinds of stocks.

 

As for raising capital, its only worth raising capital when there is room for growth. Its strange that EA with all its assets, still needs a lot of other peoples capital to grow. But generally speaking its better to use other peoples money to make big investments than their own. Thats why they do that, and of course people want the chance to profit from that. As for inflating the prices, it would be just like how day trading normally inflates prices with real estate.

 

Also, its not about individuals but group of individuals. Since its seasonal with investors buying when stock prices rise from a certain product, and then dropping, then people will follow that trend. So then its a large group of investors. Also large group investors would follow trends as well. So if small groups of individuals were selling, then the large groups would as well.

 

You know quite a bit, but I did not really get an answer as to why EA stocks dropped. As a whole. You mentioned hedge funding and pensions, but then say its based on insider trading. So are you suggesting there is inside trading that involves peoples pension, or even hedge funds?

 

Sorry if I sounded condescending. It just seems like people have read a book on finance without actually knowing or understanding how any of this actually works in practice. I majored in finance and I had no clue what I was doing my first year on the job. I will try to address your questions in order:

 

1. There are stock dealers who people buy stocks from the source and they will sell at a certain price, and people will pay a certain price for it as well. Thats what I read. That price will change based on demand.

 

Yes, but the demand is based on research. It's not arbitrary.

 

2. Also there are stocks which are based on real assets and those that are not. Thats what I know, and read. However, that maybe more with other kinds of stocks.

 

?? Not sure what this is. Stocks are based on...a valuation of the underlying company. Stock valuation is done in many ways, but EBITDA and EPS are major factors that go into the valuation. When a company goes public, the lead bank does a valuation pre-IPO and prices the IPO (e.g., what they will be selling the initial shares at). Once the company goes public, the shares are listed and open for trading. The shares will either go up or down (lately down) depending on whether investors think the shares are worth the price. There is no such thing as shares of a public company that are "based on real assets." None. It sounds like you are thinking about some asset-backed security, but those are traded in the OTC or pink slips market, and are NOT the "common shares" of the company which we are talking about.

 

3. As for raising capital, its only worth raising capital when there is room for growth. Its strange that EA with all its assets, still needs a lot of other peoples capital to grow. But generally speaking its better to use other peoples money to make big investments than their own. Thats why they do that, and of course people want the chance to profit from that. As for inflating the prices, it would be just like how day trading normally inflates prices with real estate.

 

When I see a company issunig bonds or doing some equity issuance, I think of a couple of possibilities: 1) preparing to do an acquisition of another company; 2) they need cash to refinance existing debt; 3) plan to make major expansion of business or R&D; or 4) they're screwed and need cash to keep running day-to-day operations. They don't issue debt or equity just to "get cash." It's usually tied to some major corporate event. And regarding the latter point about whether it's better to use your money or other people's money, they're both "your money" which you're on the hook for. If you want to issue bonds (that's like taking out a guaranteed personal loan), you're on the hook.

 

4. Also, its not about individuals but group of individuals. Since its seasonal with investors buying when stock prices rise from a certain product, and then dropping, then people will follow that trend. So then its a large group of investors. Also large group investors would follow trends as well. So if small groups of individuals were selling, then the large groups would as well.

 

No, large institutional investors don't care what individuals are doing. Actually, what individuals and day traders do is try to follow the movements of the large funds. See those upward/downward trends in a stock? That's all driven by large volume brokerages.

 

5. You know quite a bit, but I did not really get an answer as to why EA stocks dropped. As a whole. You mentioned hedge funding and pensions, but then say its based on insider trading. So are you suggesting there is inside trading that involves peoples pension, or even hedge funds?

 

I'm not a research analyst and haven't analyzed EA, so I don't know why the funds decided to reduce their position on EA. No idea. But the point of all this ranting from me is that it's hugely complicated, and trying to boil it down to 1 or 2 issues such as subscription numbers is really not possible. And you can bet your money that there is insider information happening everywhere. One person at a company leaks information about upcoming earnings, it spreads. Check out the massive spike in trading volume in a company that happens right before earnings are released...what is that you think?

Edited by iheartnyc
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Ok how about now?

 

US 2 standard, rest light

 

EU 3 standard, rest light

 

I don't think you understand time zones. People play in the evenings, not in the morning (U.S.) or middle of the day (Europe).

 

Last night, at 8 pm local time, 55% of EU servers were Standard or heavier and 67% of U.S. servers were Standard or heavier.

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I dare people to /who the number of level 85s on Stormwind or Ogrimmar on a light and medium server, and see if that number is 6x more than what you get from a light or medium server here.

 

Our last log-in to Wow had 200 people on the entire server. We had that many at fleet alone last week. These people do not know. LOL

 

What we have here are a bunch of kids playing a video game, and because of that, believing that they can formulate even a modicum of an opinion as to the business practices of a large corporation when almost all of them have not even broken the umbilical cord yet, still living off mom and dad, sleeping in the dorm. Its the, facebook generation, where everyone has an expert opinion on everything, and no one takes the time to actually learn. Drama and conjecture, the order of the day. ;p

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Our last log-in to Wow had 200 people on the entire server. We had that many at fleet alone last week. These people do not know. LOL

 

What we have here are a bunch of kids playing a video game, and because of that, believing that they can formulate even a modicum of an opinion as to the business practices of a large corporation when almost all of them have not even broken the umbilical cord yet, still living off mom and dad, sleeping in the dorm. Its the, facebook generation, where everyone has an expert opinion on everything, and no one takes the time to actually learn. Drama and conjecture, the order of the day. ;p

 

200 on the fleet is pretty high, very high in fact.

 

Most servers (I've seen) you won't find that outside of maybe sunday afternoon.

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Sorry if I sounded condescending. It just seems like people have read a book on finance without actually knowing or understanding how any of this actually works in practice.

 

It's ok, people do exactly the same thing when talking about US federal law. :D

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Our last log-in to Wow had 200 people on the entire server. We had that many at fleet alone last week. These people do not know. LOL

 

What we have here are a bunch of kids playing a video game, and because of that, believing that they can formulate even a modicum of an opinion as to the business practices of a large corporation when almost all of them have not even broken the umbilical cord yet, still living off mom and dad, sleeping in the dorm. Its the, facebook generation, where everyone has an expert opinion on everything, and no one takes the time to actually learn. Drama and conjecture, the order of the day. ;p

 

Excellent depiction of many on these forums.

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I'm guessing 1.7 million+

 

Also want to say to you guys that not everybody play this game every *********** time. I love this game and will keep subscribing for a long time. It's been 3 days since I logged on last time, but because of school, homework, job and my friends, I don't have much time to play.

 

Just because your server is dead, or a guild member isn't logged on every day it doesn't mean that they don't like the game. :)

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