The end of the arguement. Is SWTOR in decline? Can it be saved?

[Tenceriker]

Stage 1 in losing a debate: Name calling.

 

If you can find any factual errors in my posting, please point them out.

 

Stage 1 In Continuing to Lose A Debate: Beating around the bush/avoiding the question

 

You are in denial over the state of the game and without more people waking up and demanding the game change it will do much worse than it could if fans lit a fire under Bioware to improve the server issues, balancing, merges, etc.

[BrainSplatter]

News about EA's recent layoff is not new. It's been circulating for a while now. And 'evidence' in the first link about BF3 and SWTOR having a poor commercial performance is just some guy talking out of his ***.

[DavidJVB]

Think of it like treating someone for shock. In shock, either the blood vessels dilate (anaphylaxis), so blood pressure/circulation drops because you have the same amount of blood that suddenly needs to fill more space, or, the person is losing blood (hypovolemic) because now that same space has to be filled by a smaller amount of blood. Either way, that person is dying, circulation is disrupted, organs shut down, etc. While yes, the best way to treat it is to add more blood (analogous to suddenly getting hundreds of thousands of new players), a way to stabilize them and keep them from dying and keep consciousness is to do things like elevate the legs, or administer epinephrine. The goal of this is to pool more of the blood available into the vital organs and brain (instead of in the legs), and to constrict the blood vessels, That gets the most circulation to the places that need it, until you can get a transfusion.

 

An interesting analogy, but I'm not sure how you would incorporate cardiogenic shock (heart failure from either diminished contractility or arrhythmia), so it's an imperfect fit. Also, if the shock is purely hypovolemic and not hemorrhagic (say from dehydration -- perhaps that would be server congestion from volume contraction in this case) it can be fixed by volume infusion (crystalloid or colloid -- not sure how this would fit the analogy either) rather than blood transfusion (new players).

 

Perhaps the recent 7-day offer is the equivalent of a cell saver, allowing Bioware to "reinfuse" some players who have already "hemorrhaged"?

[DarthVindictus]

Stage 1 in losing a debate: Name calling.

 

If you can find any factual errors in my posting, please point them out.

 

Populations did go down starting in January, you went from seeing 200+ people on the fleet across many servers and then peaking under 100.

 

Hundreds of thousands of people only did the first free month, and from their tactics with the 30 free days (the timing of it), they either expect to lose 100K+ more, or already have had people cancel their 3 month subs and are just riding it out.

 

I highly doubt there were 300,000 people who bought the game but didn't ever play the game. There may be a few, but the overwhelming majority of those 300,000 people will be those who entered their credit card so that they could use the free month, and then immediately cancelled subscription, only riding out the free month before they were billed.

[DarthVindictus]

An interesting analogy, but I'm not sure how you would incorporate cardiogenic shock (heart failure from either diminished contractility or arrhythmia), so it's an imperfect fit. Also, if the shock is purely hypovolemic and not hemorrhagic (say from dehydration -- perhaps that would be server congestion from volume contraction in this case) it can be fixed by volume infusion (crystalloid or colloid -- not sure how this would fit the analogy either) rather than blood transfusion (new players).

 

Perhaps the recent 7-day offer is the equivalent of a cell saver, allowing Bioware to "reinfuse" some players who have already "hemorrhaged"?

 

It's a simplified analogy yes, of course die hard fanboys on these forums will claim the life threatening illness of this game to be "Septic Shock" claiming everything wrong is from the "trolls and 4chanz" on the forums, so there's another one huh?

[Saltydogg]

This is the truth. Gamers are passionate about their hobby, Most people complaining about things on this game are not doing so because they "hate it", if they truly did, they wouldn't have bought the game, and wouldn't be posting here.

 

Most of the people complaining WANT this game to be good, just in their cases, it doesn't live up to snuff.

 

This is exactally the point of posting in these forums. People actually take the time to go through what is truly wrong with the game and how EA can improve on it. However the devs ignore most of the suggestions. Now I am not talking about the people screaming class nerf or my class gets killed my this class. I am talking about the people who go out test the patch, are in the game constantly and see where problems take place. People did this all the time with Warhammer but the devs ignored most of it and decided to nerf/buff classes that were not needed, add in buggy content, add in bs features like extra pets or super fun time mounts. They ignored the general masses thus we now see one active server with less than 25k subs. Does this kind of seem familiar with 1.2? Broken buggy patch, class nerfs that didnt need to take place. Healer nerf that made commando healing almost worthless, shiny new objects to play with yet not fixing broken content, a legacy system that sucks up all your money so you have to grind dalies. This game was potential but it will die a slow painful death just like warhammer.

 

Soon the people who go onto the PTS will leave because their advice was not heeded, next will be the casual gamer because who wants to play a FPS MMO that has a horrible LFG system, next will be your larger pve guilds because the content is easy mode, then finally your hardcore pvpers because there will be so many nerfs and buffs it will make class balance a nightmare. So you will have WoW like ARENA teams that have very specific class makeups that become godlike because of the imbalance.

 

Mark my words in 3 months you will see massive server merges when 1.2's shiny objects wear off and people get tired of rolling alts.

[Kthx]

Populations did go down starting in January, you went from seeing 200+ people on the fleet across many servers and then peaking under 100.

 

You know what else happened in January? The end of Christmas break.

 

Hundreds of thousands of people only did the first free month, and from their tactics with the 30 free days (the timing of it), they either expect to lose 100K+ more, or already have had people cancel their 3 month subs and are just riding it out.

 

I don't know what you are implying with "tactics", but every MMO that I am ware of includes a period of 30 days game play with the purchase of the game. There is nothing sinisiter here. Further, no MMO developer expects all of those initial purchases to convert to subscriptions. My understanding is that 85% is an excellent conversion rate for the MMO business and in its Q3 2012 earnings report, EA described it as "a great take rate."

 

I highly doubt there were 300,000 people who bought the game but didn't ever play the game. There may be a few, but the overwhelming majority of those 300,000 people will be those who entered their credit card so that they could use the free month, and then immediately cancelled subscription, only riding out the free month before they were billed.

 

I'm just reporting what EA said in its earnings call. We have no way of knowing how many of those never installed the game. But, for argument's sake, even if everyone of them represented people who did not continue beyond the first 30 days, EA considered 1.7 million subscribers to be a very good launch. I agree and you do not. What we do know, however, is that a month later they were still at 1.7 million subscribers and that "the vast majority of the 1.7 is now triggered through that point and they're recurring subscribers" (that point being past the first 30-days).

 

After that second statement, dated March 8, we have no more information on the number of subscribers, only anecdotal data and opinions.

[Saltydogg]

That you make crap up?

 

NOpe my sever during prime and i am talking 9pm at best has 46 people in fleet.

[Kthx]

If I leave, it'll be because Bioware doesn't care to fix their mistakes, not even the easy ones.

 

So all the bug fixes in the patch notes are fictions of our imagination?

[Kthx]

NOpe my sever during prime and i am talking 9pm at best has 46 people in fleet.

 

My server right now (standard load) has 144 on Fleet and 92 on Tatooine. And now I'm off to play!

[Saltydogg]

My server right now (standard load) has 144 on Fleet and 92 on Tatooine. And now I'm off to play!

 

One sever with 144 people on fleet and 92 on Tatooine good for you. So you must be on FATMAN? Well I am not. All i see is the same 50's in fleet, the only new names are the alts people are rolling. So dont begin to tell me that every server is doing great. Here check it out current server status http://www.swtor.com/server-status You have how many servers full and how many heavy again? So tell me though the logic of math how can EA have 1.7 million active subs when you only see 1 server full and 6 heavy? I dont expect them all to be playing at the same time but I can tell you this my server is a ghost town just like many others people are posting about.

[DarthVindictus]

You know what else happened in January? The end of Christmas break.

 

 

 

I don't know what you are implying with "tactics", but every MMO that I am ware of includes a period of 30 days game play with the purchase of the game. There is nothing sinisiter here. Further, no MMO developer expects all of those initial purchases to convert to subscriptions. My understanding is that 85% is an excellent conversion rate for the MMO business and in its Q3 2012 earnings report, EA described it as "a great take rate."

 

I'm talking about the 30 free days being given in April. if you're not a current subscriber on april 24th, you won't get the 30 free days. People who subscribed for 3 months on launch day will have their subscriptions end.... tomorrow. See the tactic? If you let your subscription lapse, you lose out on 30 free days, if you resubscribe you get 30 free days. They would not take the losses in giving out a free month unless they expected a substantial number of subscriptions being lost in April, which coincidentally is when 3 month subscriptions are up for renewal.

 

I'm just reporting what EA said in its earnings call. We have no way of knowing how many of those never installed the game. But, for argument's sake, even if everyone of them represented people who did not continue beyond the first 30 days, EA considered 1.7 million subscribers to be a very good launch. I agree and you do not. What we do know, however, is that a month later they were still at 1.7 million subscribers and that "the vast majority of the 1.7 is now triggered through that point and they're recurring subscribers" (that point being past the first 30-days).

 

After that second statement, dated March 8, we have no more information on the number of subscribers, only anecdotal data and opinions.

 

I never said it wasn't a good launch I said that populations dropped by a significant number, and I expect populations will drop further beginning tomorrow. Not hit rock bottom mind you, but I suspect tens of thousands of subscriptions that won't renew, possibly up to or over 100,000.

 

It has to be a substantial amount for EA to take the risk of giving out a second free month.

[Captiosus]

My server right now (standard load) has 144 on Fleet and 92 on Tatooine. And now I'm off to play!

 

Right. I'm calling BS on that. Those are numbers you see on Fatman, not a standard load server. The fact that you didn't even mention naming the server says you pulled those numbers out of your arse.

 

Here's a standard load server: The Razor. I just logged out of it. 17 people on Tattooine, 42 people on Republic Fleet.

 

Just going to agree with others: You're in denial. 1.2 wasn't the panacea people thought it was going to be. People who have left have moved on. Edit: Some may be taking advantage of the free week for former subscribers at no cost just to kill some time, only to leave again on the 20th. Either way, they're not likely to come back. And it's clear EA knows they're about to lose subscribers like water in a sieve, or they wouldn't be doing free weekend events so close together and give away free time (potentially taking a significant hit to recurring revenue, the bread and butter of MMO survival).

Edited April 19, 2012 by Captiosus
Edited for clarity and grammar.

[Saltydogg]

Right. I'm calling BS on that. Those are numbers you see on Fatman, not a standard load server. The fact that you didn't even mention naming the server says you pulled those numbers out of your arse.

 

Here's a standard load server: The Razor. I just logged out of it. 17 people on Tattooine, 42 people on Republic Fleet.

 

Just going to agree with others: You're in denial. 1.2 wasn't the panacea people thought it was going to be. People who have left have moved on. They're not likely to come back. And it's clear EA knows they're about to lose subscribers like water in a sieve, or they wouldn't be doing free events so close together and give away free time (eating what could be a substantial financial loss to recurring revenue).

 

You are completely correct. They did the same thing with Warhammer. I wonder why people completely ignore the fact that EA ruined a huge MMO project like that? They practially are doing to same bs patch work they did in Hammer. Adding a buggy patch that breaks just as much as it fixes seems to be the EA way of doing things

[Saviorr]

Right. I'm calling BS on that. Those are numbers you see on Fatman, not a standard load server. The fact that you didn't even mention naming the server says you pulled those numbers out of your arse.

 

Here's a standard load server: The Razor. I just logged out of it. 17 people on Tattooine, 42 people on Republic Fleet.

 

Just going to agree with others: You're in denial. 1.2 wasn't the panacea people thought it was going to be. People who have left have moved on. Some may be taking advantage of the free week for former subscribers at no cost just to kill some time. Either way, they're not likely to come back. And it's clear EA knows they're about to lose subscribers like water in a sieve, or they wouldn't be doing free weekend events so close together and give away free time (potentially taking a significant hit to recurring revenue, the bread and butter of MMO survival).

 

Jek Jek Tar is a "standard server" and we see 115-140 players on average on the fleet. Call it what you want, but if you want to see for yourself, roll a toon, spend 2 hours getting to level 10 and see for yourself.

[WrecklessMEDIC]

Right. I'm calling BS on that. Those are numbers you see on Fatman, not a standard load server. The fact that you didn't even mention naming the server says you pulled those numbers out of your arse.

 

Here's a standard load server: The Razor. I just logged out of it. 17 people on Tattooine, 42 people on Republic Fleet.

 

Just going to agree with others: You're in denial. 1.2 wasn't the panacea people thought it was going to be. People who have left have moved on. Some may be taking advantage of the free week for former subscribers at no cost just to kill some time. Either way, they're not likely to come back. And it's clear EA knows they're about to lose subscribers like water in a sieve, or they wouldn't be doing free weekend events so close together and give away free time (potentially taking a significant hit to recurring revenue, the bread and butter of MMO survival).

 

My server Black Vulkars - US West PvP, has over 150 people on the fleet right now. Those are typical numbers and my server is light-standard. You really don't know what you're talking about do you?....lol.

[Saltydogg]

Jek Jek Tar is a "standard server" and we see 115-140 players on average on the fleet. Call it what you want, but if you want to see for yourself, roll a toon, spend 2 hours getting to level 10 and see for yourself.

 

See this is where you have to wonder what caps they place on servers. Mine is also standard but we never and I repeat never see 100 plus people on fleet anymore. So is the fix in? Whos to say but I do remember someone taking a very long time to do a population estimate, that post seems to have gone the way of the doo do

[WrecklessMEDIC]

See this is where you have to wonder what caps they place on servers. Mine is also standard but we never and I repeat never see 100 plus people on fleet anymore. So is the fix in? Whos to say but I do remember someone taking a very long time to do a population estimate, that post seems to have gone the way of the doo do

 

This might be the server population info you were looking for.

 

http://dulfy.net/2012/03/01/numerical-swtor-population-data-for-pvprp-pvp-servers/

[Oddzball]

See this is where you have to wonder what caps they place on servers. Mine is also standard but we never and I repeat never see 100 plus people on fleet anymore. So is the fix in? Whos to say but I do remember someone taking a very long time to do a population estimate, that post seems to have gone the way of the doo do

 

THat was me, and it was easy to do, but doing it across multiple servers is time consuming.

 

The CAP that makes servers LIGHT?STANDARD/FULL is not;

I REPEAT

NOT the same on all servers.

 

I found through a random sample group that some servers who had a active user load of less than 1k people (in some cases 500 active users still showed as standard) (both sides) was listed as standard, and all the way up to ~1.5k still said standard.

 

Spread those average 800 users about on both sides across the level range and planets and you only see around 30-80 people on the fleet.

 

The tools are there to do a population census for your server, it just takes a bit of time.

[Drakkip]

My server Black Vulkars - US West PvP, has over 150 people on the fleet right now. Those are typical numbers and my server is light-standard. You really don't know what you're talking about do you?....lol.

 

To be fair he/she is quoting the numbers on their server. But let's be honest, a jump from 42 to 150 for an online game isn't world shattering. I mean really wouldn't it be nice if there were 1000 people around level 50 to group with... just sayin'...

[Darkulous]

My server Black Vulkars - US West PvP, has over 150 people on the fleet right now. Those are typical numbers and my server is light-standard. You really don't know what you're talking about do you?....lol.

 

Lord Adrass has that on standard too.

[Darkulous]

To be fair he/she is quoting the numbers on their server. But let's be honest, a jump from 42 to 150 for an online game isn't world shattering. I mean really wouldn't it be nice if there were 1000 people around level 50 to group with... just sayin'...

 

you can have a lot more than that with LFD

[Oddzball]

Lord Adrass has that on standard too.

 

Fleet population means NOTHING.

 

You have to look at overall population.

 

I could have server with 20 people on fleet and 200 on tython/korriban and it would still show standard load.

 

Why is this so hard for people to grasp? Stop quoting fleet size as health of your server. If you have a problem with your server pop, do some real research and actually figure out the population. It isnt hard to do.

[Saltydogg]

THat was me, and it was easy to do, but doing it across multiple servers is time consuming.

 

The CAP that makes servers LIGHT?STANDARD/FULL is not;

I REPEAT

NOT the same on all servers.

 

I found through a random sample group that some servers who had a active user load of less than 1k people (in some cases 500 active users still showed as standard) (both sides) was listed as standard, and all the way up to ~1.5k still said standard.

 

Spread those average 800 users about on both sides across the level range and planets and you only see around 30-80 people on the fleet.

 

The tools are there to do a population census for your server, it just takes a bit of time.

 

I feel bad for the people on a light server, they might not even be getting the full worth of this game even in the state that it currently is in

Edited April 19, 2012 by Saltydogg

[WrecklessMEDIC]

I feel bad for the people on a light server, they might not even be getting the full worth of this game even in the state that it currently is in

 

My server Black Vulkars is light-standard. Plenty of people running around, never have a problem getting a group together for a Flashpoint or Heroic, and all Warzone's are insta-que. Can't really ask for much more than that.