New updated sub numbers (Official)

[Samborino]

As I noted above if you rough take their take on box sales and monthly net they have probably recouped around half of that 200 milion which is crazy.

 

Yea especially considering 40% of their sales have been through origin which they make 100% profit on pretty much.

[Samborino]

Peak pops for mmogs have had a 4-1 and now closer to 5-1 multiplier forever.

 

That means 350k to 425k peak players which is close enough.

 

That being said 4 hours a day per player average sounds extremely high. Was that number reported? I would guess it is little more than half that, perhaps 15-17 hours a week.

 

Looking at the math though it is pretty easy to see the current levels we see in game in fact do support the reality of 1.7 million subscribers.

 

Yea they just kind of spread themselves too thin, had they not released like 80 new servers on launch day, and just let people deal with the queue's until they doubled the max server population a few weeks later , we would be seeing far more heavily populated servers.

[RealAeiouy]

Except he's completely wrong.

 

He's using an averaged player count throughout a 24 hour period, when quite clearly a server isn't going to have the same number of people at 3am as it does at 6pm (relative local time).

 

This makes what he's calculated meaningless in this context, as rather than ~600 people needed at prime time per server the number would need to be much, much higher to account for 4 hours a day average play time.

 

 

 

Which goes back to the puzzling point, why SWTOR seems to have so many people subbing, yet not playing.

 

Not puzzling at all. The average mmog player does not consider playing games a full time or even part time job.

 

If you look at the numbers everything makes sense.

[Sarfux]

It's not like it's one world...like world of warcraft or AION or any of those...there are dozens of worlds, lots of flashpoints, warzones, all that stuff. That's why you don't see them. It makes it look like there aren't a lot of people there. It's a HUGE game.

[RealAeiouy]

I'm not sure that I'm the one having problems with the math, my numbers show the average simultaneous people playing over time not the number of players minimum playing, as I said, during peak hours (approximatly a span of about 6 hours in the evening/night) and especially weekends (a span of about 12 hours afternoon-late night) on my server that number is atleast doubled-tripled, my server usually only dips below that number of people during the off off peak hours of the night as far as I have seen, the math holds.

 

EDIT: when you check how many people are on, the fleet is just a small part of the total population, my server had a total empire population of about 1200 during peak last thursday but only 113 in fleet.

 

EDIT2: anyway, I seem to recall that the 4 hour average playtime was during the first 1.5 months according to some dev quote posted in this thread, that average might well be a lot lower

 

Which makes sense. People probably play 2x more early on in a new game so having the average be 2 hours a day is totally in line with how most comparable mmogs are.

[RealAeiouy]

Sorry, but you don't understand your own numbers.

 

 

Your first calculation spreads the 4 hours per person out through a 24 hour cycle.

 

As I've repeatedly said that is not how it works.

 

 

 

You are calculating your "20 buses per hour", but ignoring that in rush hour your actually need 100 per hour and at 3 am need 1-0 per hour.

 

So like I said what you've calculated it meaningless (its right, in so far as the maths go, but it isn't showing what you think it does) in this context.

 

Server pop would have to be much higher than what you've stated to account for the average 4 hours played per player per day. That's just how it is.

 

You keep making that same bad argument. For the point he is trying to make averaging it out is fine. His point is that servers are not going to be full with 1.7 million players.

 

People are trying to argue that the lower pop fleet zones prove ea is lying. His accurate numbers disprove that. You can adjust them. They average play time has likely dropped so it ends up the same.

 

You are not arguing against his point but only his method yet his method still correctly supports his position. Like I said 4-1 or 5-1 multiples for peak are standard in mmogs and if you work it out it matches up well enough. You are trying to find a flaw in what he is saying without understanding it yourself. His math still gets him to the right place and that is with ~600 players, on average at peak, in each faction

 

Even if you disagree with his method his results are accurate. You on the other hand provided no results of your own to oppose his.

[Fardarter]

I subbed for 3 months, mine simply hasn't expired yet. Either way this is no wow-killer. WoW might collapse but it will probably be from its own weight and expectations. Who knows though EQ is 13 years old and releases an expansion every year and has a small but loyal following. I am surprised 1.7 million people are playing tor and wouldn't be shocked if that number fell. A lot is riding on this next patch that's for sure. GW2 is in clsed beta right now and it is possible it will be released this year. GW2 is a bigger threat to SWTOR than wow at this point. If a free to play game can deliver higher quality and polish than a game with a sub it won't help.

[RealAeiouy]

Yeah I think they wouldn't lie about them directly (although that wouldn't preclude indirectly or just a plain mistake).

 

But the strange and worrying thing its that if there are 1.7 million subs, and they are playing 4 hours per day on average, there's an awful lot of those subs that must be playing basically 0 hours.

 

If the average is now less then 4 hours per day, then that in itself is worrying unless SWTOR is going to break the mould of MMORPG (which I guess it might).

 

An average mmog player plays like 10-15 hours a week. 4 hours a day is 28 hours a week. That is a huge amount. I can see that large of number for a launch but not when players settle in.

 

Your implication that a smaller number than 28 hours a week would be unusual for an mmog is simply wrong. Most people who play mmogs are adults and they don't have the equivalent of a part time job worth of time to play every week.

 

14 hours a week is 2 hours a day , 7 days a week. That is a substantial time commitment. Most people only sleep, work and watch tv more than that in a week.

[RealAeiouy]

Why would you guess at the average play time when the people with the actual data have stated the average is 5 hours per day? Seriously...that's all tinfoil hat math. Some servers are way more populated than others. People who have found themselves on underpopulated servers are irate. We're not hearing from the peolpe on well populated servers because they're satisfied.

 

I made some assumptions on avg play time. That they are getting that high of a number is impressive. That is 35 hours a week per player, which is nearly a full time job.

 

Perhaps that is why the numbers are so strong, most players are addicted to swtor.

 

I do think the biggest problem are the servers and the extreme population differences. People on low pop servers think nobody is playing but it is not true.

 

I always end up playing on servers picked by friends and family and they know how to pick a server at launch. If I was on a low pop server I would reroll and not think twice about it. Trying to enjoy the game but being miserable while hoping for transfers or merges is not worth it. The game has not been out long enough to have that much invested.

 

I think anyone dismayed with being on a low pop server should reroll

[RealAeiouy]

Changing the cap doesn't change the threshold for capacity levels... if it did, then even their own metrics would be worthless.

 

Answer me this: why do you suppose they even show those capacity levels on the server select screen?

 

Wat? Of course changing the cap would change the metric.

 

Why would you label a server full at 75% capacity?

[Invictos]

I made some assumptions on avg play time. That they are getting that high of a number is impressive. That is 35 hours a week per player, which is nearly a full time job.

 

Perhaps that is why the numbers are so strong, most players are addicted to swtor.

 

I do think the biggest problem are the servers and the extreme population differences. People on low pop servers think nobody is playing but it is not true.

 

I believe the number in question (whether it's 4 or 5 hours, I don't remember) was misconstrued: the developer comment in question referred to average hours per play session, not average hours played per day.

 

Speaking for myself, I will often play for 3-4 hours at a time, but I don't play every day. Sometimes I don't play for two or three days at a time. In any case, the developer comment was, IIRC, aimed at making the very point you make above: Bioware was impressed with the level of enthusiasm evinced by the early player base's habits. Bioware wasn't trying to say that the average SWTOR player treats the game like a full-time job

 

Given the sheer number of players we're talking about, it seems borderline impossible that they could average 4+ hours per day over any appreciable period. For every d00d who tirelessly plays the game, attached to an intravenous food source and wearing a pair of adult diapers, there've gotta be 20 people who log on for half an hour a day. You'd think so, anyway. Or maybe hope is a better word to use.

Edited March 13, 2012 by Invictos

[RealAeiouy]

This is a ridiculous assumption on your part. Why would they NOT change the thresholds? Why would they just increase the population caps of the servers only to leave the thresholds the same? After they increase the caps, WHICH of the thresholds is affected then? They have to add those numbers somewhere, so which of the thresholds do they add those numbers to?

 

No they never said anything about increasing thresholds, probably because they shouldn't have to. RE-defining the thresholds is the most logical choice in the matter. Maybe they should have spelled it out more clearly for the slow kids so that people couldn't come up with such idiotic theories.

 

For all we know the thresholds are coded as a percentage of the server cap. I agree with you it makes no sense to change the cap and not the metric used to indicate what percentage of the cap is being used.

 

People are working over time to try and throw mud on this. This is the most impressive first few months of an mmog in a while and one of the best of all time.

 

It is weird for people to root for a game they subscribe to to do poorly.

[RealAeiouy]

The only quote I know of is from the Q3 Earnings Call in the beginning of February.

 

"This is an outstanding start for an MMO, and the metrics on engagement suggests players are loving the game. Unique log-ins are averaging about 1 million per day, and their average playtime is approximately 4 hours per day."

 

I also read that to mean the 1 million unique logins are averaging 4 hours per day, not that all 1.7 are logging on for 4 hours a day.

 

Ah see that is not 4 hours per day. That is 4 hours per day for 58.8% of the players.

 

That means the average player plays 2.35 hours a day which is around 16 hours a week which is exactly where it should be compared to other mmogs and where it clearly fits in line with server populations and the rest.

 

58.8% of the players login every day for an average of 4 hours.

 

This means the average player plays 2.35 hours a day.

[RealAeiouy]

That's an awful lot of assumption in your defensive paragraph there.

 

I ASK YOU AGAIN: Why does BioWare show server levels on the select screen? If the answer is anything other than "to confuse players" then those thresholds CAN NEVER CHANGE.

 

That is ridiculous. To be accurate THEY MUST CHANGE as they represent relative capacity.

 

If bioware increased server capacity by 10000% you think when the server is at 5% capacity it should be labeled heavy. It is like you are not processing what you type.

[Lightmaguz]

I like raiders definition of a hard game, it basically means "long as hell grind to gear up for the next tier of even more grinding.

[RealAeiouy]

December 15th start of staggered launch - Game sucks, will be dead on launch

December 20th - Game will be dead after free 30 days

January 20th - Game will be dead mid-way through Feb, Bioware just got lucky

February 20th - Don't worry, wait til March....

yet 1.2 is right around the corner but lemme predict what it's gonna be next

March 20th - Game will be f2p by summer

 

Are you noticing a pattern here, I am, and the fools are becoming more and more apparent

 

 

 

They could hit 2 million by end of march or April which would be amazing.

[Raeln]

The class story is different, sure. But each planets set of quests is the exact same thing, which is a majority of the questing you do. That is the problem.

 

How is this different from any other recent MMO?

[XGSTAR]

How is this different from any other recent MMO?

 

Legacy, choosing your path, companions system, space shooting, double talent system...

 

The thing is that story was clearly most part of this game. The rest need to be improved, as they are doing well by the patch 1.2 This game has high potential after all and I hope for it.

 

And I know that is quite boring playing so much storyline through eight characters in a mmo, but that's basically all... until new patch. With this new one, this mmo won't be so boring at its endgame (the legacy system promises a lot, *yum*)

 

Anyways, a mmo is not just about to play what it can offer. Make roleplaying or whatever, help another classes to join in their stories, cooperating and having fun through that (how exciting to finish the Jedi Knight's story with my Smuggler, ), explore a bit around the wonderful planets this game has... etc.

 

http://i634.photobucket.com/albums/uu68/juliusmacalutas/ImaginationSnake.jpg

Edited March 13, 2012 by XGSTAR

[Raeln]

Legacy, choosing your path, companions system, space shooting, double talent system...

 

The thing is that story was clearly most part of this game. The rest need to be improved, as they are doing well by the patch 1.2 This game has high potential after all and I hope for it.

 

And I know that is quite boring playing so much storyline through eight characters in a mmo, but that's basically all... until new patch. With this new one, this mmo won't be so boring at its endgame (the legacy system promises a lot, *yum*)

 

Anyways, a mmo is not just about to play what it can offer. Make roleplaying or whatever, help another classes to join in their stories, cooperating and having fun through that (how exciting to finish the Jedi Knight's story with my Smuggler, ), explore a bit around the wonderful planets this game has... etc.

 

http://i634.photobucket.com/albums/uu68/juliusmacalutas/ImaginationSnake.jpg

 

You missed my point.

 

They were saying that aside from the class story quests, all the side quests were the same between alts. I asked how that is different from any other MMO - there was even less variation in WoW as there were almost no class quests at all. Except for what you did in combat there was almost no difference in your story experience in WoW outside of choosing your race.

[iRouven]

You missed my point.

 

They were saying that aside from the class story quests, all the side quests were the same between alts. I asked how that is different from any other MMO - there was even less variation in WoW as there were almost no class quests at all. Except for what you did in combat there was almost no difference in your story experience in WoW outside of choosing your race.

 

Not only that - while the core mission is the same in most cases, there are some that change slightly according to your alignment choices. Not huge, but still there. I interact with my mission giver - not so in other MMO's. I would definitely love complete alternate paths for the planets - oops, that plan didn't work, planet not saved - but another bonus series pops up where I can rectify it - or chose to butcher it some more

 

The only thing I can see becoming tedious/repetitive would be daily missions, even space missions - with the x alt character. Perhaps there will be some incentives with the legacy feature.

[Genocidalx]

So you call a loss of subscriber's "expanding"? Well I have news for you this game is way too casual friendly to have people play for the long run.

 

This game attracts solo players with its "story". Once they try out the different stories and maybe play a few "operations" whats left with them?

 

Don't try to tell me this games operations and pvp have any holding power. Getting geared in record time isn't going to keep subscribers. This game is too damn easy and there is no carrot on the stick incentive to keep playing since you can get geared so fast.

 

Also with rated warzones coming out there will be no gear upgrade for doing well in rated warzones? Really? How is that going to incentivize people to keep pvping over other well known pvp mmos. The game's engine isn't even built for smooth, fluid pvp action.

 

I like the game for it's pve content but it is way too easy and 1.2 won't change the fact that this game has no holding power.

 

Expect subscriptions to go down. They may fluctuate up and down but it won't grow at an enourmous pace.

 

Good games don't need the proverbial "carrot on the stick" to keep people playing. The game itself is the carrot. But yes, you're right. This game isn't and has none.

[islander]

Over a million and a half people don't agree with the 100-150 raging forum haters.

 

Just sayin'

[Soullessone]

way too many whiners. if you dont like it leave, no one is forcing you to play the game. I myself like this game, im semi hardcore, but i don't sit in front of my computer for 10+ hours i at least have a life unlike some people here apparently.

[SnakeBites]

at least have a life unlike some people here apparently.

 

Who are you trying to convince? Yourself or people on the SWTOR forums?

Edited March 13, 2012 by SnakeBites

[Evironrage]

....

Also can anyone tell me how it's possible the servers were heavy/full all the time during 1st month now all are low/standard even though EA claims there was no drop?

This and there used to be multiple "instances" per world that you could enter if you were having a difficult time with kill quests: move to a new "world instance" and viola, mobs to kill. Now there is no need because per server the pop has dropped off drastically.

Still, if accurate, 1.7 million is healthy for a sub based MMO, so BW should be pleased.