New updated sub numbers (Official)

[Blotter]

[quote name='RenegadeCarlyle']It's called winter break... Almost everyone was either on vacation from school or from work. Thats why every server was nearly full at that time. DUH[/QUOTE] The server caps were also much lower at the time.:)

[Devlonir]

1.7 million, ok so the game is in decline once you factor in Asia and the Aussie's, the fact they even had to state the number means pressure by the investors to do so, not a good sign.

 

Let's be honest here folks, where are these subs? Sure as hell ain't in game.

 

Facts, this was taken from a statement done pre-Asia launch.

 

Try again.

[Syylara]

You keep saying vocal minority, I don't think this is the case at all.

 

Besides, you are saying 1 out of 2 factions is already having a hard time playing. I have to reroll imp now too?

 

Honestly at a certain point it's hard not to see the 300lb gorilla in the room....

 

800-pound gorilla: an analogy describing an entity which wields such a dominant position within its sphere of influence, it can act with little to no repercussions. Noted by the adage: "Where does an 800-pound gorilla sit? Anywhere it wants"

 

The Elephant in the room: A reality that is quite obvious as it simply cannot be missed unless one is literally blind (and even then, there would be clues), yet goes strangely unacknowledged by all in attendance as if speaking of it will cause some calamity.

 

Please don't mix metaphors.

 

:9

[Dezzi]

1. Why would people on high population servers be on the forums complaining about low population?

 

2. I never said that.

 

3. The only 300lb gorilla in the room is the massive, pervasive problem ALL MMO's have with self-entitled infantile brats who turn their forums into complete cess pools of negativity, dire prophecy regarding the game's health and future and childish, tinfoil hatted temper tantrums and whining.

 

You're so angry...

 

[Senatsu]

Everyone should take those sub numbers with a grain of salt, especially the predictions. But, I'm very glad the game is still going with a solid number of subscribers and hopefully it will keep increasing.

[RkJedi]

i dont know how the CEO of EA can make that claim without "hard numbers" to back up what he said... most CEO lie to the media and make their OWN COMPANY look good therefore shares prices goes up make **** load of money off the investors.. i think its outrageous claims, cuz there is so much evidence that the game is slowing down... alone on my server i rarely see anyone in open world questing anymore, FP LFG has been hard to find... and guild mates of 120 only 5-10 comes online periodicly.. claiming 1.7mil and growing to 2mil i think its bogus and its all talk. as long they dont give us "hard fact numbers" i call EA CEO BS claim.

[evildestroyer]

I dont by this crap. From what i see there are less and less heavy and full servers at peak times and more standard and light servers every week.

[JHoltJHolt]

1. Why would people on high population servers be on the forums complaining about low population?

 

2. I never said that.

 

3. The only 300lb gorilla in the room is the massive, pervasive problem ALL MMO's have with self-entitled infantile brats who turn their forums into complete cess pools of negativity, dire prophecy regarding the game's health and future and childish, tinfoil hatted temper tantrums and whining.

 

Well said. I like this person.

[Distracted]

So you call a loss of subscriber's "expanding"?.

 

You call a consistent number a loss? the game is still new. People will come & go, but the numbers won't stabilise for some time.

[Goretzu]

Got my coffee now, let me go over my numbers again, I actually did make one mistake earlier, 24 divided by 4 isn't 8, changed the formula for easier overview, still the same numbers.

 

1700000 subs, 173 servers, 4 hours average, 24 hours in a day, 2 factions

 

subs / servers * 4 / number of hours / factions

1700000 / 173 = ~9826 accounts average per server per day

9826 * 4 = ~39304 player hours average per server per day

39304 / 24 = ~1638 average players per hour per server per hour (average based on 24 hours)

1638 / 2 = ~819 average players per hour per server per faction per hour (average based on 24 hours)

 

Based on this my earlier calculation is off by ~205 (due to getting 24/4 to be 8 instead of 6), but 819 players average per server, faction and hour is still a pretty low number needed, but (purely speculative) I'm guessing the average playtime at this point isn't 4 hours, more like 2-3 hours, which would put the needed average somewhere between 410-615.

 

Some servers will struggle to get close to these numbers even at peak hours while some servers are at or over this even at mostly off peak hours and double or triple the numbers at peak hours.

 

 

 

Yes that is a much better way to do it, however again there is no server average to play time.

 

Because you're completely ignoring that server populations have peaks and troughs you are saying that a server needs to be averaging 819 players per faction per server per hour 24/7 to get the 4 hours a day.

 

No server is averaging that 24/7 (this can easily be determined by the light off peak statuses and the lack of full or even heavy PT statuses).

 

Therefore people must currently be playing on average a lot less than 4 hours per day with 1.7 million subs.

[CeruleanNite]

1.7 million, ok so the game is in decline once you factor in Asia and the Aussie's, the fact they even had to state the number means pressure by the investors to do so, not a good sign.

 

Let's be honest here folks, where are these subs? Sure as hell ain't in game.

 

You also should know that when this data was taken the Aussies where already on NA servers, so some of them are already there.

[Keblitis]

So...

 

Month 1= 2Mil subs @ $60 a copy= $120Mil

Month 2= 2Mil subs @ $15 a month =$30Mil

Month 3= 1.7Msubs @ $15 a month =$25.5Mil

Month 4= 1.7Msubs @ $15 a month =$25.5Mil

 

Total= $205,000,000.00 (in 4 months)

 

 

p.s. I know... I know... This game cost 9000 Trillion dollars to make, but still nearly a quarter billion in under 4 months? Not to shabby.

[zrinking]

1.7 million, ok so the game is in decline once you factor in Asia and the Aussie's

 

Wrong again.

[Lethality]

What are you talking about?

WoW wasn't even this successful 3 months after release by far.

 

The growth rate was far, far higher.

[Stormnut]

I see the mercs are on the clock. Any way, if the CEO is lying about the sub numbers that he gave then expect him and EA to be fined for lying in official SEC communications as well as to investors.

[Panzerbase]

Facts, this was taken from a statement done pre-Asia launch.

 

Try again.

 

Exactly my point, minus Asia and Australia the game has shed players, thanks for backing me up!

[Blotter]

1.7 million, ok so the game is in decline once you factor in Asia and the Aussie's, the fact they even had to state the number means pressure by the investors to do so, not a good sign.

 

Let's be honest here folks, where are these subs? Sure as hell ain't in game.

 

Yuo can't factor in Asia and Aussies...they aren't included in those numbers this time around.

[Devlonir]

Yes that is a much better way to do it, however again there is no server average to play time.

 

Because you're completely ignoring that server populations have peaks and troughs you are saying that a server needs to be averaging 819 players per faction per server per hour 24/7 to get the 4 hours a day.

 

No server is averaging that 24/7 (this can easily be determined by the light off peak statuses and the lack of full or even heavy PT statuses).

 

Therefore people must currently be playing on average a lot less than 4 hours per day with 1.7 million subs.

 

how do you know the amount of people are considered light, standard, heavy and full by Bioware? The best I have seen is guesstimates made by travelling around and doing a head count (which takes so long to actually do the end result can vary a lot), a very small amount of times.

 

Nobody knows if Standard stops at 500 people online or at 5000. So your argument is, once again, invalid.

[maxilo]

"New updated sub numbers (official)"

 

Can someone please provide a link to the (official) announcment of these figures please ?

 

as all i see is a games industry site saying it's so.

 

If true then i have no idea where all the players are hiding as my experience is not one of that kind of numbers !!!!

[Lethality]

So...

 

Month 1= 2Mil subs @ $60 a copy= $120Mil

Month 2= 2Mil subs @ $15 a month =$30Mil

Month 3= 1.7Msubs @ $15 a month =$25.5Mil

Month 4= 1.7Msubs @ $15 a month =$25.5Mil

 

Total= $205,000,000.00 (in 4 months)

 

 

p.s. I know... I know... This game cost 9000 Trillion dollars to make, but still nearly a quarter billion in under 4 months? Not to shabby.

 

And none of these revenues have to go to pay current costs, amirite?

[XOrionX]

Also can anyone tell me how it's possible the servers were heavy/full all the time during 1st month now all are low/standard even though EA claims there was no drop?

 

BW has repeatedly told everyone that they increased the server cap gradually over time.

 

What was once heavy is now standard, what was once standard is now low.

 

Pretty simple really. Check the dev announcements and Q&A and you will know these things.

Edited March 9, 2012 by XOrionX

[Goretzu]

Again, no matter how many times you keep saying this.. it doesn't make this more true either.

 

An average of 4 hours per day for each player IS taken by taking averages across a 24 hour period (you see, a day happens to be a 24 hour period). So people play, on average, 4 of those 24 hours. That means that, on average, people are NOT playing 20 hours per day. We also know that, on average, peek hours in an MMO are about 6-8 hours long. In this time, MOST players play the game, not all though.

 

In that time, you have the people that just log on for 15 minutes to see they find no Flashpoint group and leave to come back another day, as well as those players that have already been in the game for 7 hours and 45 minutes and decide to call it a day. You see, those two together already average... *drum rolls* 4 hours spent in that specific 24 hour period.

 

You see.. peek hours merely are the time when most people play.. not all. You cannot disregard the other 16-18 hours of a day just because they have less players in them. And there are enough people that play only on non-peek times because of how their life is scheduled.

 

You are making a logical mistake by disregarding non-peek hours and stating that people that do regard the actual 24 hour period as part of the 4 hour average per day are making a mistake. Just because people stop saying you are wrong, doesn't make your repeated mistake right.

 

PS. I do realize that an average means nothing more or less than an average though. Using an average for any kind of statistics is, in itself, a logical phallacy because the nature of averages means that the result is merely 1 of the possible outcomes.. and often not even the most likely one.

 

 

You are telling me the server average per hour (over 24 hours) is 1639 players?

 

Bearing in mind how low pops go off peak and that even on PT many servers aren't full?

 

 

 

If you believe that then fair enough, but I have a bridge to sell you too.

[Devlonir]

Exactly my point, minus Asia and Australia the game has shed players, thanks for backing me up!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u70EYe4vy8U

 

Come on, that is such backwards logic I cannot even begin to fathom where the idea that the game has shed players when the amount is the same BEFORE Asia players come into the mix is just..

 

wow..

 

I cant even begin to..

 

Must be the Jawa avatar.. it seems to draw in bad logic in this thread

[Stormnut]

"New updated sub numbers (official)"

 

Can someone please provide a link to the (official) announcment of these figures please ?

 

as all i see is a games industry site saying it's so.

 

If true then i have no idea where all the players are hiding as my experience is not one of that kind of numbers !!!!

 

linked previously in this thread but here is another one:

 

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ERTS/1691146240x0x551496/6162f638-c8c9-45f2-ab77-463e59f00455/ERTS_Wedbush.pdf

 

Page 14

 

• Most successful subscription MMO launched

• Recently launched in Australia, New Zealand,

Hong Kong and Singapore

• End of February

• More than 1.7M active subscribers

[Blotter]

Exactly my point, minus Asia and Australia the game has shed players, thanks for backing me up!

 

Yuo have that backwards. This statement was from before the Aisa launch, so the new subs aren't included. In other words: current number = 1.7M subs + Asia subs. This statement of 1.7M subs in no way, shape or form indicates a drop in subs.

 

Moreover, weren't you haters the ones saying earlier in the week "you can't count Asia/Aussies as having created growth because most of them were already subbed!!!" Yeah, you were. So either yuo were right a couple days ago and the Asia/Aussie subs have no effect or you're right now...self-contradcition like that gives the lie to your claims.

Edited March 9, 2012 by Blotter