Server Population is GROWING!

[corbanite]

The trends say a number of things.. which include

 

1. unknown changes to the server status

2. unknown number of people no longer subbing

3. unknown number of people logging in for shorter periods

 

case 3 is where people have hit 50 and log in for a lot shorter time then they have previously to go raid or do a daily.

 

all they are an indicator of is people logging on simultaneously.

 

 

Example:

 

Server A could have 2000 people logging on for 5 minutes each spaced out throughout the course of a day.

 

Server B server could have 500 people logged on at once for 4 hours at a time between 16:00 and 20:00

 

Those stats would show server B to have more people logged on simultaneously.

 

 

 

 

SO during the initial levelling periods servers would be showing heavy or greater load on them as people consume the levlling content for hours at a time. As the server matures more people ding max level and players who don't roll alts are on for less each day.

 

If they show anything tbh they show people play more when they are levelling then when they are lvl 50 which is what I would expect.

 

 

Even if no one unsubs a decline in what these stats show is inevitable just given how people play.

Edited March 2, 2012 by corbanite

[Barracudastr]

Population is growing.

 

Doomsayers unite.

 

 

 

Now your just trollin!

[Azzras]

Now your just trollin!

 

:o:o:o:o

 

[Goretzu]

The trends say a number of things.. which include

 

1. unknown changes to the server status

2. unknown number of people no longer subbing

3. unknown number of people logging in for shorter periods

 

case 3 is where people have hit 50 and log in for a lot shorter time then they have previously to go raid or do a daily.

 

all they are an indicator of is people logging on simultaneously.

 

 

Example:

 

Server A could have 2000 people logging on for 5 minutes each spaced out throughout the course of a day.

 

Server B server could have 500 people logged on at once for 4 hours at a time between 16:00 and 20:00

 

Those stats would show server B to have more people logged on simultaneously.

 

 

 

 

SO during the initial levelling periods servers would be showing heavy or greater load on them as people consume the levlling content for hours at a time. As the server matures more people ding max level and players who don't roll alts are on for less each day.

 

If they show anything tbh they show people play more when they are levelling then when they are lvl 50 which is what I would expect.

 

 

Even if no one unsubs a decline in what these stats show is inevitable just given how people play.

 

 

 

 

100% of people don't sub when they aren't playing much.

If new subs are coming in they'd replace those not playing.

 

However SWTOR with 500,000-1,000,000 subs is still wildly successful by any real measure.

 

I dunno why people do the ostrich thing to pretend otherwise.

 

The very worse thing any one can do is leave dead servers and not merge those that needed it, it's exactly what helped WAR in its demise (not merging that is).

Edited March 2, 2012 by Goretzu

[Drewser]

I have read that and I understand that none of these sites show sub numbers or population numbers, What they do show is trends of the server status. So what are these trends telling you? Do you just want to ignore that?

 

I guess you could say BW keeps changing what makes a light, standard or heavy server but does anyone buy that? If you do they must be doing this everyday.

 

I do not think the game will die, I do not think the game will fail. Just pointing out that the majority of servers have become ghost towns over the last month or so. My main server is worthless because you never see anyone on it, I watched the servers for a week during my primetime and picked a a new heavy one, out of the three that were that way in my primietime. Guess what, now that server is never heavy anymore, that happened in the last 2 weeks.

 

I quoted the guy that linked a population site and said subs are dying.

 

Let's forget the fact that the site he linked is it not even showing population numbers right, even if it was, it still would not show people quitting, just that they are logging in less.

 

Also, the thread I linked clearly explains why the "trend" is meaningless.

Edited March 2, 2012 by Drewser

[Drewser]

100% of people don't sub when they aren't playing much.

If new subs are coming in they'd replace those not playing.

 

However SWTOR with 500,000-1,000,000 subs is still wildly successful by any real measure.

 

I dunno why people do the ostrich thing to pretend otherwise.

 

The very worse thing any one can do is leave dead servers and not merge those that needed it, it's exactly what helped WAR in its demise (not merging that is).

 

False - there are people in my guild that love raiding. The logged a lot of time leveling their toons, now they just log in for raid nights.

 

Their play time has gone from 15-25 hours per week to less than 4 hours. None of them have unsubbed.

[corbanite]

100% of people don't sub when they aren't playing much.

If new subs are coming in they'd replace those not playing.

 

However SWTOR with 500,000-1,000,000 subs is still wildly successful by any real measure.

 

I dunno why people do the ostrich thing to pretend otherwise.

 

The very worse thing any one can do is leave dead servers and not merge those that needed it, it's exactly what helped WAR in its demise (not merging that is).

 

no, I agree.. How many unsub we don't know.. And these stats are useless for telling.

 

I don't know if subs are rising or falling.. I know that people are not playing for the quantity of time they did at launch.

 

All I know is people play less as they reach max level.

 

It will be intresting when 1.2 arrives as I would expect to see an increase in the stats if vast the majority are just not playing as much.

 

Until then I have to say I do not know.

 

 

 

new subs coming to replace those reaching 50.. this would mean that you expect swtor to maintain the amount sales each day the same as they did for the entirety of pre sale period. this is just unrealistic.

 

The stats these graphs show have to decline. For them to go up would be much much more then just successful.

Edited March 2, 2012 by corbanite

[Mankim]

I totally agree with Corbanite. I really like the game and know that BW is quite pleased with the number of subs they report. Of details we know very little. But I know that I carefully picked a server with high population and that now it feels almost deserted. At prime time there can go minutes without anyone posting in general chat. As a dps I can have 2 chances at a FP during a whole night and only slightly more as a healer.

I play operations and see that they are full of bugs but that does not worry me half as much as the decreasing server activity. I play on a EU server and believe that the status of the servers are a bit better in the US but BW must really do something to keep ppl like me playing (not subbing). I really hope they can turn this around.

[Icebaron]

For the money they spent on making this game, they should have 3 million subs by now and still growing.

 

New fansites would be popping up all over the internet.

Blogs would be going nuts on feature after feature.

Nobody would be talking about Tera or GW2.

 

 

Just saying, that is how WoW grew it's first three months. Basically the internet as a whole was telling me I HAD to play this game. For those of you that don't remember that far back, think of the recent Skyrim.

 

If you don't think the executives at Bioware are in panic mode right now, you are deluding yourselves.

[Goretzu]

False - there are people in my guild that love raiding. The logged a lot of time leveling their toons, now they just log in for raid nights.

 

Their play time has gone from 15-25 hours per week to less than 4 hours. None of them have unsubbed.

 

I'm not saying that some people don't do that.

 

I'm saying that 100% of people don't do that (and to claim they do is well false).

 

 

no, I agree.. How many unsub we don't know.. And these stats are useless for telling.

 

I don't know if subs are rising or falling.. I know that people are not playing for the quantity of time they did at launch.

 

All I know is people play less as they reach max level.

 

It will be intresting when 1.2 arrives as I would expect to see an increase in the stats if vast the majority are just not playing as much.

 

Until then I have to say I do not know.

 

 

 

new subs coming to replace those reaching 50.. this would mean that you expect swtor to maintain the amount sales each day the same as they did for the entirety of pre sale period. this is just unrealistic.

 

The stats these graphs show have to decline. For them to go up would be much much more then just successful.

 

Yup, it would need to be a pretty hefty sustained increase to offset it certainly, but on the other hand it's unlikely subs are increasing if a downward trend (or even flat trend) is being shown.

 

At best they'd have levelled off.

 

Which I suspect is probably something close to the truth.

[Andryah]

Before I logged out this evening I noticed JJT was "standard" with ~40-50 people in fleet, while Canderous Ordo and Sith Wyrm were both "light" with ~20-30 people in fleet.

 

Bad data points there fella. What? 1:00 AM???????

 

Just to note: Canderous Ordo was Full last night at about 9:00 PM Eastern time.

[Azzras]

For the money they spent on making this game, they should have 3 million subs by now and still growing.

<snip>

 

So if I made an MMO and spent 10 million on it, the MMO theme is...say...my little pony poop fighters...I should accrue roughly 15-20 million subs based on what I spent?

 

silly

[Andryah]

Here's the thing:

 

People play aggressively (as in long hours) leveling up and getting to where they want to be in game.

 

Afte that, if they are single character players, they log on less often. Only to run specific content that are on timers for them, or their guilds schedule.

 

If they are multi character players, then they are probably rolling alts, maybe even on differnt servers (this is quite common actually for alt rollers).

 

The point being that the population is dynamic in nature. No server stats available to any of us can track this. Only Bioware has the analytics to know what the actual subsription count per server is.

 

Active subscription count on a server is the only metric that matters. WHY? because when a content patch comes on line, many people will once again play agressively to consume the new content. So you cannot merge servers where the merged result would be over full capacity threshold in active subscribers. It will once again result in queues on some servers and a whole new tirad from players.

 

And all this "Fleet has X" nonsense needs to stop. People have settled in to routines now, and hanging on Fleet because you don't yet have a routine is passe now. I'll give you an annecdoteal reference to illustrate the point: A couple nights ago on Jekk Jekk (Imperial), Fleet was only around 70 people, YET there were over 150 on Nar Shadda. My point here is that Fleet stats have become meaninginless now for the most part. If you want to really know what is going on on your server, then take a snapshot by doing filtered 1-5, 6-10, etc and then tally them up (on both sides, at prime time, not your play time). Note: I can't even do this on Jekk Jekk Imperial anymore because /who 50 returns more then 100 results.

Edited March 2, 2012 by Andryah

[Icebaron]

So if I made an MMO and spent 10 million on it, the MMO theme is...say...my little pony poop fighters...I should accrue roughly 15-20 million subs based on what I spent?

 

silly

 

well, first off you would have to get that 10 million from investors, somehow convincing them that your game called "My Little Pony Poop Fighters" would be worth their investment. Also, 10 million is not alot, SWTOR was somewhere between 200-300 million to make. It was the MOST expensive game ever made.

 

You make the most expensive game ever made, you expect to get the most return on said game. That is why I said the execs are in panic mode, because the investors are calling em asking them why it is not generating the revenue they expected.

[corbanite]

well, first off you would have to get that 10 million from investors, somehow convincing them that your game called "My Little Pony Poop Fighters" would be worth their investment. Also, 10 million is not alot, SWTOR was somewhere between 200-300 million to make. It was the MOST expensive game ever made.

 

You make the most expensive game ever made, you expect to get the most return on said game. That is why I said the execs are in panic mode, because the investors are calling em asking them why it is not generating the revenue they expected.

 

How do you know swtor is between 200-300 million? I can pull out analysts who reckon it was 80 million to make..

 

You have not got a clue how much it cost to make.

[Barracudastr]

How do you know swtor is between 200-300 million? I can pull out analysts who reckon it was 80 million to make..

 

You have not got a clue how much it cost to make.

 

Maxim mag said it was around 135 mil.... they are a pretty solid source.

[stickyickytricky]

How do you know swtor is between 200-300 million? I can pull out analysts who reckon it was 80 million to make..

 

You have not got a clue how much it cost to make.

 

Whats the cool down on the 'pull out analysts' spell?

[Azzras]

well, first off you would have to get that 10 million from investors, somehow convincing them that your game called "My Little Pony Poop Fighters" would be worth their investment. Also, 10 million is not alot, SWTOR was somewhere between 200-300 million to make. It was the MOST expensive game ever made.

 

You make the most expensive game ever made, you expect to get the most return on said game. That is why I said the execs are in panic mode, because the investors are calling em asking them why it is not generating the revenue they expected.

 

Please cite this 'most expensive game ever made' comment for me.

 

And as far as I read, they kind of exceeded their expectations with sales.

[corbanite]

Whats the cool down on the 'pull out analysts' spell?

 

 

 

A lot slower then the analysts cool down "pull out swtor estimate" apparently

 

http://www.myfreeps3.net/ps3-news/1514/analyst-swtor-could-cost-ea-as-much-as-80-million-to-develop

Edited March 2, 2012 by corbanite

[Drewser]

I'm not saying that some people don't do that.

 

I'm saying that 100% of people don't do that (and to claim they do is well false).

 

 

I thought your quote was saying people that play infrequently won't sub, hence my response.

[Drewser]

Before I logged out this evening I noticed JJT was "standard" with ~40-50 people in fleet, while Canderous Ordo and Sith Wyrm were both "light" with ~20-30 people in fleet.

 

What time?? I have never seen Sith Wyrm with 20 people on Fleet.

 

Hell, right now (4:40 EST) there are 95 people on Fleet

[Cerion]

So with the recent updated sub numbers, it seems there might be more evidence here.

[Dayln]

There is no question that the subscriptions are growing.

 

What the MMO newbs don’t understand is that upon the release of a game, people play non stop 10-15 hrs a day in some cases

 

Subscriptions continue to increase, but the average player does not play quite as often as... we have jobs, and real lives to contend with.

 

This is normal and has been the case in every MMO game ever created

 

The WORST thing they could do is merge servers, which is what they were trying to avoid in the early weeks by adding servers that would not be needed later on.

 

Populations will continue to increase as the player base grows, but we are not ever going back to the time when all the servers were on Heavy Load all the time, that was not a function of how many players, but how often players were actually on-line at a given time.

[Ossos]

Apparently they are saying that SWTOR has 1.7 Million active subscribers, which is the same as it was last month.

 

Ihttp://venturebeat.com/2012/03/08/electronic-arts-reveals-new-mass-effect-3-and-star-wars-mmo-numbers/

 

No idea on when that sample was taken. I guess people really are enjoying it.

 

 

Unfortunately for me, I'm working on guild #4 as my 3 previous guilds (all pretty large) have just desolved because no one plays anymore.

 

Oh well, good times.

Edited March 9, 2012 by Ossos

[Eskodas]

I realy dont like to post on forums but,i got somes facts from my server to share.

 

My server(Veela) had like easily 250+ peoples on IF for the first month,then more 100-125 for the last month,since the last patch this more like 175+,im pretty sure this will go over 200+ for the 1.2 patch.

 

So situation is not so bad,just burn the trolls(pretty weak to fire).