NOW = 1.7 Million Active Subscribers | 3 Months from now = Guess What

[Zorvan]

3.2 Million in three months with the Asia Pacific launch.

 

When 2013 hits I predict 12 million.

 

No joke i did some math calculations and that is what i got.

 

Then your math is flawed.

 

I predict 400k at best as far as NA/EU.

[WhiskyJax]

Show me.

Take a look at any chart site that shows daily average logins and you will see that currently it is a little less then a third of Wows that adds up to a lot more then 300k subs total

 

Take a look: http://www.mmo-junkies.net/statistics/

 

Overall monthly population peaks have decreased but the average is unchanged

[Berazad]

I dont foresee catastrophic losses as some haters are trying to imply. No doubt they'll be some losses as there is with all new release games not everyone trying it out is going to stay, nothing more than 400/500k losses i'd say which would still maintain over a million subcriptions.

 

But if bioware continue ignoring the player base on important things such as realm populations they'll most likely see alot more than just my prediction, it wouldn't hurt to add more things to do at the max level aswell, right now i can barely be bothered to log on.

Edited February 28, 2012 by Berazad

[zebrawizard]

Hi, im a relatively new player, i have a 50 sorc and im currently leveling a vanguard...

 

but the problem is as soon as i hit 50 i gave up on him nearly straight away, the end game content is just a pure grindfest, flashpoints are not fun to play through as its just a standard fight lots of mobs tank and spank scenario, very repeatative.

 

PvP (which is what my primary interest is though pve is also fun) is dull and games are not enjoyable (in comparison to other pvp games, battlefield, league of legends, anything else) there is just no real satisfaction (for me) when killing someone or pvping/winning.

 

I will be deactivating my subscription when my first month is complete. Its just the same formula as WoW, but without the polish (pve and pvp wise).

 

however the story/questing is enjoyable! so atleast they got that right.

 

counter arguement could be that all mmos are grindy at end game, but it doesnt mean it cant be made enjoyable. ive played 400+ games on league of legends ont he same map and i still find it entertaining, so theres something lacking here...

[AKfourtyseven]

I dont think the game will grow much more, if at all. I can see it stabilising at 1.5-2 million subs depending on what happens in the next 2 months or so.

 

The game most definitely had the potential to break 5 million when it launched, but first impressions last and they have not done themselves many favours in the first 2 months. Hopefully they can turn it around, but thats less likely with the current generation of MMO players than it was 10, even 5 years ago.

[AKfourtyseven]

counter arguement could be that all mmos are grindy at end game, but it doesnt mean it cant be made enjoyable. ...

 

If they had implemented more sandbox features like many wanted, this wouldnt be an issue.

[ShadowOfVey]

From the predictions I have seen from highly reliable internet sources on message boards, I estimate approximately 3 subs by this time next week. =P

[DTuloJr]

If they had implemented more sandbox features like many wanted, this wouldnt be an issue.

 

If they had implemented more sandbox features, making it middle of the road like they told us from their very first press release and developer blog postings and interviews and other marketing hype that they spread, then it wouldn't be an issue...

[WhiskyJax]

This game is bleeding subs faster than any other mmo I have played in, as far as I can see, yes I cant fully back this up, remember this game had a much bigger start base then almost any other MMO in recent times.

 

But just a general look at the players on your own server should say a lot, in the first mother we were getting close to at times over 300 people on Carick, lucky now if we ever see 50.

 

Another thing this guy

did a survey and posted it here, think the post lasted like 30 seconds before BW yanked it as it showed figures they really did not want getting out.

 

 

For this to work he needs to do all the servers during their peak times but lets extrapolate using his numbers

if 79 US servers = 71646 then 124 Us Servers = 112457 US players on at the same time or 906 per server

 

So if thete are 112 457 players logged in at the same time on the US side then there must be another 82 446 on Euro servers 91 servers X 906 players per server giving us a grand total of 194 903 playing at the same time

 

Now lets take this a step further usually prime time is about 10-20% of the player base

 

So lets say 15% of our player base play during peak that would give us a total of almost 1 300 000 players/subs which tells us we have lost 400 000 subs since feb 1 or dec 31 depending on how you read the stock holders report which is a 76% retention rate

[Russkiier]

To those who are complaining about empty endgame content and how that is such a turn off

I think that a Star Wars MMO attracts a much wider playerbase than Warcraft or Lord of the Ring IP, simply because it is more popular. Now this wider playerbase is likely more casual than other MMORPG games. Therefore, IMO following my logic, I dont think the lack of end-game (btw I am not trying to excuse Bioware for the lack of content) will lead to a mass exodus of players. The March update will hopefully solve (or at least soothe) some of the issues, including endgame raiding/pvp/crafting. If they botch the March Update then I see this game dropping subs, but not dying, as I believe the Star Wars IP is immensly attractive and the overall leveling experience (at least in my opinion) is enjoyable.

 

Now some anecdotal evidence

 

I have noticed that the number of players on high level planets (or at least Belsavis) has increased. I think this indicates stability if not growth because it means people are sticking with the game to level 40+, which is a sizable investment of time for a non-hardcore MMO-er.

 

Boom, irrefutable proof that i am right

[AKfourtyseven]

If they had implemented more sandbox features, making it middle of the road like they told us from their very first press release and developer blog postings and interviews and other marketing hype that they spread, then it wouldn't be an issue...

 

Yes, nice extras. I remember all the early stuff they said about this game and now i have been playing for over 2 months i really wonder where those original visions went.

 

The product we have now seems like it had an identity crisis and they really need some strong leadership to sort it out before the next competitor takes the floating MMO market away.

 

I have seen one Star Wars game i loved flop. I dont wish to see another.

Edited February 28, 2012 by AKfourtyseven

[WhiskyJax]

Yes, nice extras. I remember all the early stuff they said about this game and now i have been playing for over 2 months i really wonder where those original visions went.

 

The product we have no seems like it had an identity crisis and they really need some strong leadership to sort it out before the next competitor takes the floating MMO market away.

 

I have seen one Star Wars game i loved flop. I dont wish to see another.

 

Right now the belief the game is flopping is ding more harm then the game actually flopping mainly because they added too many extra servers during the first week of launch due to player complaints.

 

As I have stated in many posts over and over again it is very easy to hide 1.7 million subs on this many servers but everyone is so fixated on the low pops with out bothering to understand why.

[rzrknight]

Really? Where are all those people, heck my server looks more and more empty ... maybe is just a feeling. Wish they would allow us to actually check the numbers.

[LaughingLoser]

...as I believe the Star Wars IP is immensly attractive and the overall leveling experience (at least in my opinion) is enjoyable.

 

 

So what you're saying is, Soon to be released SWTOR for game boy where up to 4? players can sync play consecutively? Really that's more than adequate for a leveling experience.

 

There is so much here say about all of this, but let me say pvp wise, our top ranked pvper hasn't logged in in about a week, queue times are on average about a 15 minute wait during peak hours, 40 ppl on the imperial fleet when we used to have 40 50's on the fleet at any given time just a few weeks ago, are all bad signs.

 

For those that think austrailian and asian subs will help, just because it is just now being officially launched over there, doesn't mean they haven't been playing it. They'll increase, but not nearly as much as what folks may think.

 

I really love the game, and have stuck through it with the bugs, but honestly, standard, heavy, light all mean jack when you are stuck lfg or waiting in queue the entire time you have to play the game.

[WhiskyJax]

Really? Where are all those people, heck my server looks more and more empty ... maybe is just a feeling. Wish they would allow us to actually check the numbers.

 

 

Dude no one is on 24/7

Judging by that survey that that guy posted proving the game is dying we have 194 000 players on at once..

 

You have to understand that there are 216 servers 33 separate zones, plus ships .. that leaves us about 14 players per faction per zone if republic/empire was 1:1 and the zones and servers were popped evenly

 

Anyways the guy who did the survey inadvertently proved the game has up to 1 300 000 subs, maybe more, bases d on how he collected the numbers

Edited February 28, 2012 by WhiskyJax

[Russkiier]

So what you're saying is, Soon to be released SWTOR for game boy where up to 4? players can sync play consecutively? Really that's more than adequate for a leveling experience.

 

Quote mark things arent working :/

 

Anyways, SWTOR has a great leveling experience that requires TIME for many casual gamers, I have a level 42 Sorc and a decent amount of skill and I dont expect to finish the class quest until mid march, then I have 7 other storys that I would like to at least finish the first act with, thats at least another 3-6 months of game play. Now I don't expect everyone to be like me, but i beleive that more people are casual gamers and thus will spend more time leveling than raiding or end-game PvPing. This gives Bioware time to clean these (endgame pvping, raiding, and crafting) up before a large chunk (the casual chunk) hits the endgame

[zebrawizard]

they could have focused on their strengths and included a bunch of interesting questlines involving operations, quests which unlock after completing of a raid or after collecting certain things.

 

when it comes to pvp, they need to make a system where playing the same map over and over again is engaging, fun and rewarding. instead of tokens, why not have a level system like in other multiplayer games? players having the choice of which WZ to go into. or death match ffa style maps with pickups everywhere?

 

also those health pick ups should be changed to health regen over time.

[reaperkeepet]

I'd say 2.5 mil by the end of the year... Although we will ALL unsub on the 21st of December.

[Talsalus]

I'd say 2.5 mil by the end of the year... Although we will ALL unsub on the 21st of December.

 

did u not purchase the afterlifetime subscription?

[Dan_McMan]

My hope is that the game will continue to have a robust subscriber base for many years. Even a million subscribers would be remarkable... there's just one obese guy in the MMO room that makes everyone else seem skinny...

[Depredator]

I have played the GW2 beta.

 

Doubtful.

[miikke]

I would suggest that those of you who see all these BIG numbers for BW success, read the forum "When will there be a "SERVER MERGE?" " where people not affected by fanboyism express real problems with real numbers and real examples from real servers, which proves that the amount of subscriptions is greatly diminishing, the few well populated servers are getting bigger, only because people from low populated servers are re-rolling.

 

Many are canceling their subscription, disappointing that they have wasted 2 months gearing/lvling and now are forced to re-roll.

[WhiskyJax]

I would suggest that those of you who see all these BIG numbers for BW success, read the forum "When will there be a "SERVER MERGE?" " where people not affected by fanboyism express real problems with real numbers and real examples from real servers, which proves that the amount of subscriptions is greatly diminishing, the few well populated servers are getting bigger, only because people from low populated servers are re-rolling.

 

Many are canceling their subscription, disappointing that they have wasted 2 months gearing/lvling and now are forced to re-roll.

 

Well someone provided some REAL information which shows around 200k players on at any one time but when you spread it out and throw in faction imbalance you get some low numbers.

 

Also take into consideration that only 10-20% are playing at anyone time means that the subs were alot more then 200k.

 

 

Rather then quitting and whining about dead servers we need to rally together and and demand that servers are merged back to launch day levels

[islander]

Well someone provided some REAL information which shows around 200k players on at any one time but when you spread it out and throw in faction imbalance you get some low numbers.

 

Also take into consideration that only 10-20% are playing at anyone time means that the subs were alot more then 200k.

 

 

Rather then quitting and whining about dead servers we need to rally together and and demand that servers are merged back to launch day levels

 

I agree. We need a modest server merge badly. Remove 25% of the servers, allow free xfers off of them so guilds can move en masse, and all of a sudden you'd have a ton of heavy to full servers again.

 

As far as where the game will be population wise in 3 months, I believe around a million. The game's still excellent, but it's got flaws and for people who aren't into rolling alts they're going to leave for the next shiny thing. TOR is going to need another few months to add things that the typical MMO gamer expects, unfortunately.

Edited February 28, 2012 by islander

[Kruldak]

My guess, a lot less.