Gankstah Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 (edited) As more and more people hit endgame and find out that there is VERY LITTLE to do besides roll alts, people will start dropping. Guaranteed... 750,000 would be a very high number...I doubt it will even be that much......And I am a fan of this game... /shrug No content, no subs....... Bio failed on this There's plenty of content. And more coming. Don't blame BioWare because you and your homies have zero life, blew through the entire 1-50 experience and then zerged end game like a bunch of rabid preteens jones'ing for a sugar fix. There's this thing called "REASONABLE expectations". The capitalized word being the operative word there. Games like Rift and SWTOR brought a metric **** ton of content to the table on release. More content than any other MMO's have released with to date. But people who are spoiled on the WoW phenomenon expect a company to produce the same quantity of content, at RELEASE, that WoW has been developing over the better half of a decade POST release. That's *never* going to happen. You have two options: Save up some money. Shave the sorely neglected regions of your body. Get a haircut. Buy some new clothes. Head on over to your local bookstore and pick up a "how to speak to the opposite sex" book. Take a shower. Hail a cab. Finally, venture out into the unknown and join the rest of the human race by getting a life. Remain a perpetual basement dweller and keep bouncing between WoW and the next latest and greatest MMO because it's not humanly possible to produce content in which you and your fellow guildies will stay consistently satiated. Pick one. Content Locusts: That small percentage of players whose goal isn’t to experience content but to consume it as fast as possible as they race inexorably through a game. The people who, driven to hit max level as rapidly as they can, then sit there and whine loudly about how they have nothing to do and how they’re still hungry. There’s no satisfying these kinds of players. Edited February 5, 2012 by Gankstah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runeshard Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The 1.7 million number includes people on their free month. This game does not have 1.7m paying subscribers. Yes that number does include people in their free month, but most of those 1.7 million are beyond that point. Regardless you can't simply discount those still in their free month. They state that the 300k that have not subscribed have either not started playing yet or have opted out. This may mean that they don't count people who have cancelled their accounts even if they are still in their free month, it may not mean this but it is possible. Furthermore that does not change the fact that it's not 1.7 million since 31st Dec, it certainly doesn't mean that its gone down to 1 million now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikkeos Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 It is 1700000 at the end of 2011. Not a single account was out of the 30 days coming with the game at that point. About 300000 people had cancelled their subscription though. That's when the fiscal quarter for EA ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiriensoul Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Between 2-3 million subscribers. The movies will be re-released in 3D so i think that will get alot of people to subscribe ones they have seen that SWTOR is out there... But who knows, doubt they will dip under 900k ever. Between 1-2 million is more of a safe choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kijthae Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I dont really care how much players does it have. I care about quality players.Swtor in its current state cant reach to a high subscriber rate because its pretty new game.More people must come as bioware adds new content and does overhauls to pvp system.In 2-3 years it should have 5 million subscribers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runeshard Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 (edited) It is 1700000 at the end of 2011. Not a single account was out of the 30 days coming with the game at that point. About 300000 people had cancelled their subscription though. That's when the fiscal quarter for EA ended. They've said that those 1.7 million subscribers constitute people in their free month and people who are already paying, most of those 1.7 million are already paying. Now; How can there be people already paying if those numbers are from the end of 2011? All the relevant information can be found in VelJharig's post which I've quoted for your convenience. "To date, we have sold through more than 2 million units. Our sell through success to date is not as apparent to the public because nearly 40% of the December sell through went through Origin, which is not recorded by third party data services. This was achieved with a level of Q3 marketing well below that of a AAA holiday quarter launch." --Eric Brown "Let me offer some metrics on purchase and subscription that will help you understand this business. As John stated, we have sold through two million units of the game since December. We currently have a little over 1.7 million active subscribers. The rest have either not started playing yet or have opted out. This is an outstanding start for an MMO and the metrics on engagement suggests players are loving this game: unique log-ins are averaging about one million per day and their average play time is approximately four hours per day. I want to take a second to correct the reports which speculated that a lack of congestion was a sign of slow participation. Shortly after launch, we doubled the efficiency of each server, allowing us to handle twice as many players and remove the waiting lines. The lack of congestion is a function of great engineering. In summary: we nailed the launch. Adoption and daily usage among core MMO users are trending very favorably." --Frank Gibeau From the Q&A: Q: When we will start to see the effect of the 1.7 million subscribers? What’s the impact of on-going R&D for providing the new content? A: It's still very early. It is hard to extrapolate where those 1.7 million subscribers lead or mean, but it’s a great start. We have huge plans. Lots of end-game content and even expansion packs. It will involve R&D post launch and we took care of some of it pre-launch. It’s a little early to identify what those all will specifically be and what our goals will be. as mentioned, we will be increasing marketing support. Q: Are these 1.7 subscribers paying? A: Active subscribers means anyone paying or in their trial period. Most of those 1.7m are paying at this point. ****** Even if you try to ignore the "to date", "since December", and "currently" terms, it's pretty clear that they are talking about subscriptions numbers from the day of the call, or from a few days prior, if "most of the 1.7m are paying at this point." None of them would be paying as of Dec. 31st, as everyone would still be in their trial period. There are other financial articles that quote John Riccitiello as saying that the numbers were 1.7M subscribers and growing (though I haven't been able to find the original interview or comment where he said that, so I'll say that's unverified for now). If you're really that desperate to try to prove that the game is going to fail - I'd suggest following the rest of your peers and starting to argue that the numbers are about to tank for any of XYZ reasons. Insisting that the numbers are old, rather than "current" or "to date" at the point of the conference call is only demonstrating ignorance, obstinacy, or an inability to read and comprehend English properly. Quotes are from the EA prepared comments, available here: http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...112_1251pm.pdf Q&A from the conference call are transcribed by Darth Hater (who attended the session live, to transcribe it for us). They did all the work to pull together the relevant points... I'm just quoting them to stop the rampant nonsense claims by desperate naysayers. Darth Hater's summary (with more details) is available here: http://www.darthhater.com/articles/s...-earnings-call There's also a transcription of the Q&A available here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3339...ipt?part=qanda Edited February 5, 2012 by Runeshard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VelJharig Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 It is 1700000 at the end of 2011. Not a single account was out of the 30 days coming with the game at that point. About 300000 people had cancelled their subscription though. That's when the fiscal quarter for EA ended. Go read my post one page back... you are lying. I have quotes from the actual company reps during the conference call, with source links. Financial statements are through the end of 2011. Subscription numbers and sell through units are from the date of the conference call, and they make that very clear in multiple statements. 1.7M current subscribers as of Feb. 1st, counting only people on paid plans and in their initial 30 day trial that haven't "opted out" by cancelling. They also talk about their Q4 spending for the next 2 months... are you going to claim that those figures are only through the end of 2011 too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drewser Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 December 31 - 1.7m Now - 1m 3 months - 400k GW2 launch - Free2Play LOL - wrong on every point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drewser Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Considering those numbers were taken with in the first 10 days of launch i dont see how those numbers are any where close to being accurate. I guarantee you that almost half of those subscribers are gone. Its under 1mill subs right now. 3 months from now? if they dont get thier act together? almost dead. Its another warhammer in the making its just hemoraging a bit slower. Link? With 1m unique logins per day, I am going to call BS on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mushrumps Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I'll believe SWTOR has 1.7 million players when I see more than 100 republic players on the fleet during primetime Nadd's Sarcophagus is so lonely for a standard-heavy server Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDFX Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Ultimately, we are left with several big sounding numbers that were accurate at one time yet are currently vague enough to tell us nothing substantive in the now. Common investors feel good. Fans feel optimistic. The report is a freaking piece of cake to mollify the fat kid. It’s still too early to tell how the game is really preforming in sub retentions outside of saying this was a hugely successful launch with awesome initial sales. If you want real numbers we can use right now, I think I know a spot or two that can be used to cut a hole in the EA building roof to bypass security late one night and have a way up there. Tonight might be good as it’s the Super Bowl. I need a database hacker and mission op caller to volunteer, I have the gear and the stun guns … (no, I am not serious but I realize I need to spell that out for some.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grueber Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 People have shelled out $60 to play this for a month. Most people do not want to admit they flushed $60 down the drain. That there is so much unhappiness with the current state of swtor should be a big red flag to Bioware. Whether they can fix it or not in a timely manner.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strina Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Forums are sad place for this game. While everyone seams happy ingame, all I see here is whining. Sigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Emeda Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Yes that number does include people in their free month, but most of those 1.7 million are beyond that point. Regardless you can't simply discount those still in their free month. They state that the 300k that have not subscribed have either not started playing yet or have opted out. This may mean that they don't count people who have cancelled their accounts even if they are still in their free month, it may not mean this but it is possible. Furthermore that does not change the fact that it's not 1.7 million since 31st Dec, it certainly doesn't mean that its gone down to 1 million now. This is the issue in the bolded part. They give you all the good looking numbers 2+ million sold 1.7 million active subs and then for the bad numbers 300,000++ (remember it is more than not just 2 million) they add in a small amount of players that have not yet activated their accounts. They know exactly what this number is because you have to activate your account to play. So instead of giving a number that have quit the game they act as if a large portion of those players have actually not started playing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jett-Rinn Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Forums are sad place for this game. While everyone seams happy ingame, all I see here is whining. Sigh... Yep and that is why Arenanet refuses to have any type of official forum. It's hilarious to listen to the GW2 Zealots bash TOR...but when GW2 is released there won't even be a technical or customer support forum to resolve or post issues....Arenanet will decide what bugs need fixing and what is a priority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mushrumps Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Yep and that is why Arenanet refuses to have any type of official forum. It's hilarious to listen to the GW2 Zealots bash TOR...but when GW2 is released there won't even be a technical or customer support forum to resolve or post issues....Arenanet will decide what bugs need fixing and what is a priority. Because obviously SWTOR is doing a great job at customer support, am I right? Oh hello ticket that took 3 weeks to answer, only to be given an automated response . And Guild Wars has an unofficial forum from another website that the devs check. Derp. They just don't want to maintain and have deal with the trolls, so they let some other website do it. Genius, if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runeshard Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 This is the issue in the bolded part. They give you all the good looking numbers 2+ million sold 1.7 million active subs and then for the bad numbers 300,000++ (remember it is more than not just 2 million) they add in a small amount of players that have not yet activated their accounts. They know exactly what this number is because you have to activate your account to play. So instead of giving a number that have quit the game they act as if a large portion of those players have actually not started playing yet. They never say that a large portion of those 300k haven't activated their subscriptions yet, they simply state that those people are included in that number. Besides, anyone with two IQ points to rub together should be able to figure out that the number of players who simply haven't activated their key codes is miniscule. Regardless, 1.7 million out of 2 million is good going so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jett-Rinn Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Because obviously SWTOR is doing a great job at customer support, am I right? Oh hello ticket that took 3 weeks to answer, only to be given an automated response . And Guild Wars has an unofficial forum from another website that the devs check. Derp. They just don't want to maintain and have deal with the trolls, so they let some other website do it. Genius, if you ask me. Yet if Bioware did that folks would be saying how cheap they were herp. Love the hypocrisy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mushrumps Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Yet if Bioware did that folks would be saying how cheap they were herp. Love the hypocrisy. Not really, how would you know people would say they're cheap? are you a time traveler O_O I would've thought it be better too if SWTOR didn't have an official forum, since it'll just be infested by trolls. even blizzard said they wished they didn't make an official forum, so your reasoning is a little lost on me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiskyJax Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 This is the issue in the bolded part. They give you all the good looking numbers 2+ million sold 1.7 million active subs and then for the bad numbers 300,000++ (remember it is more than not just 2 million) they add in a small amount of players that have not yet activated their accounts. They know exactly what this number is because you have to activate your account to play. So instead of giving a number that have quit the game they act as if a large portion of those players have actually not started playing yet. 300 000 people as of Feb 1st either canceled or hasn't installed whats your point? As it sits right now the servers look pretty busy but people can't get it through their heads that all 1.7 people do not log in at once anymore then the 10million log into wow at once. Who exactly is making these kind of numbers, ghosts? Over 239 million in-game hours, or over 332,000 months and over 27,000 years of in-game time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runeshard Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Not really, how would you know people would say they're cheap? are you a time traveler O_O I would've thought it be better too if SWTOR didn't have an official forum, since it'll just be infested by trolls. even blizzard said they wished they didn't make an official forum, so your reasoning is a little lost on me And you really can't see certain people taking any chance, no matter how far fetched or half-a**ed to whine, complain and basically talk trash about this game and BW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mushrumps Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Would it matter? It'll be an obvious troll post and no one has to reply with it, and bioware also wouldn't have to deal with it since it's not on their forums win/win! As the saying goes, just don't feed the trolls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runeshard Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 (edited) Would it matter? It'll be an obvious troll post and no one has to reply with it, and bioware also wouldn't have to deal with it since it's not on their forums win/win! As the saying goes, just don't feed the trolls So it would be a forum about the game, the closest thing there would be to an official forum since there wouldn't actually be an official one, and it wouldn't be moderated by the developers of the game... Yeah, I can't see that turning into a cesspool of troll threads and posts. Edited February 5, 2012 by Runeshard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Additc Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Would it matter? It'll be an obvious troll post and no one has to reply with it, and bioware also wouldn't have to deal with it since it's not on their forums win/win! As the saying goes, just don't feed the trolls They would jost go moan over on the other forums http://social.bioware.com/forum/1/index Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RayneDancer Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Going to predict a minor gain. I'd say maybe 2 million by the end of the year, unless a few dramatic changes occur that make SW:ToR the clear choice in MMOs. That would require a few changes to how the PvP system works, and some balancing in the PvE department. As well as a class balancing pass, and maybe a change to PvE content to make it just as hard for ranged as it is for melee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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