Two Simple Truths about SWTOR's Success

[Darth_Grissom]

First they tried to dispute the factual accuracy of the OP.

 

Then, when they failed at that, they tried to claim that any statistics released this early in the game's life have no bearing on its long-term success.

 

Yeah, they don't. But guess what? They do say something about the game's short-term success. Which is the only thing we can accurately discuss at this time. And I bet many of these naysayers are the same people who said that the game would fail in the short-term (to say nothing of the long term). This thread is no different from what they tried to do, which is make a statement about the game's success or lack of it. Except that this thread has better evidence to support its conclusion.

 

Having participated in the Tortanic "iceberg of fail" meme, and ended up with pie all over their faces, the haters simply can't admit that they're wrong.

 

Haters gonna hate.

 

Nice post

[MalyMarr]

:confused:

 

 

 

Not saying you or EA is a liar, but I have a hard time imagining where those 1.7 million people are hiding..

 

I know there are a lot of servers and not everyone plays at the same time, but still..

 

 

But after the downfall of population on servers since BETA/Launch I am noticing that servers are getting more busier again, which is a good think

 

 

If they have really hit 1.7 million then kudos to them and with this rate maybe sometime in the distant future they will be able to pay of the development cost and actually make some profit on the game

 

Oh I think the apparent "downfall" of the servers is somewhat illusionary... this is a quote from the prepared comment by Frank Gibeau:

 

Shortly after launch, we doubled the efficiency of each server, allowing us to handle twice as many players and remove the waiting lines. The lack of congestion is a function of great engineering.

 

The server capacities were doubled, so a full server became half a server. So it would look like a drop off, but really is the opposite. Instead, the apparent growth is a very good sign for the populations!

[Captain_Failure]

I just find it funny people call Rift dead yet any given zone on any given server in that game is bustling with activity while heavy servers on SWTOR are ghost towns. Edited February 2, 2012 by Captain_Failure

[xGETGOTx]

I read it sold 2mil copies. And there are 1.7mil sub's. How does that mean its growing?

[DTuloJr]

Let me spell it out for you. MY JOB is to interpret financial results and press releases. Statements contained in press releases are AS OF THE DATE OF THE PRESS RELEASE (February 1). FINANCIAL RESULTS are filed SEPARATELY or as an EXHIBIT to the PRESS RELEASE.

 

Simple enough?

 

Also, financial statements (IS/BS/SCF and notes thereto) typically do NOT contain "subscription base" numbers, as those are NOT financial numbers and CANNOT be audited by accountants (and thus, cannot be submitted for filing to the SEC). Subscription numbers are OPERATIONAL numbers, which are stated by the filing company, and released through other means including press releases, or periodic monthly management account filings to the SEC.

 

So basically, you put additional "positive spin" on information released by a particular company that's promoting a particular product in a press release put together and reviewed by a team of communications and *marketing* majors...

 

From Reuters: "Frank Gibeau, president of EA Labels, told analysts on the conference call on Wednesday that the majority of subscribers are paying users."

 

Which means that of those 1.7 million "subscribers", greater than 50% are actually paying to come back and play. Because technically speaking, the fact that we have to provide a credit card in order to play, allows them to spin even our free time as a subscription. That means, that there could be 1.6 million actively recurring credit card subscribers that *renewed* to play the game... or merely a little over 850,000 active credit card subscriptions that have renewed. If it's closer to 850k... when 2 million bought it... then that may be cause for concern.

 

See. There's spin. And then there's cold hard facts. Without *all* of the information, which was NOT released... there's quite a lot of wiggle room that was left in the press releases and investor interviews.

 

Let's see where they are at 3 and 6 months. THOSE numbers will matter. These, not so much.

[xGETGOTx]

Oh I think the apparent "downfall" of the servers is somewhat illusionary... this is a quote from the prepared comment by Frank Gibeau:

 

 

 

The server capacities were doubled, so a full server became half a server. So it would look like a drop off, but really is the opposite. Instead, the apparent growth is a very good sign for the populations!

 

You can make the limit as high as you want...that dont change the fact that the planets have less ppl on them...that means less ppl.

[Ghaiana]

Why so much hate and why are the haters not just unsubscribed? Haters, if there were so many could have changed the numbers drastically. But the fact is, that is game is not dieing but growing on the contrary. These forums give quite a distorted image on how the state of the game is. Luckely when you play it, you notice, it's in fact the other way around.

[Hobnobb]

And according to user ratings a lot of people love the game:

 

http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=259406

 

8.32 out of 10 based on 5196 user ratings

[discosoc]

Funny. For a game that's doing so well, and has such growth, there sure aren't many people to group with...

[DTuloJr]

Oh I think the apparent "downfall" of the servers is somewhat illusionary... this is a quote from the prepared comment by Frank Gibeau:

 

 

 

The server capacities were doubled, so a full server became half a server. So it would look like a drop off, but really is the opposite. Instead, the apparent growth is a very good sign for the populations!

 

See, I have a couple of problems with Frank's statements. First and foremost, he's not an engineer, and has no real technical understanding of what was actually accomplished, so I'll take his statements with a healthy dose of skepticism because they don't pass the smell meter. First and foremost, I know the spin about server queues and them needing to slowly open things up, but the simple fact is that one doesn't plan a product launch for six YEARS and them simply reengineer things overnight because you need to double your capacity. You build the capacity to take a serious strain, you artifically test it and beat it up. Then, you unleash the floodgates and watch things ramp up over a period of a few hours. Second, the idea that someone would deliberately keep people from playing for hours and hours, over a period of days and weeks, when it was allegedly a function of a simple software setting to allow more players to experience the game's launch, is likewise unthinkable, because you're destroying subscriber confidence in your product, by choice! Combined with the lack of truly detailed information related to subscriptions that actually renewed (and chose to, not the "oops we forgot to cancel you and charged you so we can continue to count you" renewal trick that some companies played), Frank's statements are somewhat suspicious.

[Nitewolfe]

The best single player mmo on the market!

[DTuloJr]

Funny. For a game that's doing so well, and has such growth, there sure aren't many people to group with...

 

Exactly. Though perhaps its only an "illusion" that there may only be 40-60 players on some planets at a particular time... Because I'd expect hundreds on every planet at all hours, with how they're spinning subscription statistics.

[DTuloJr]

Why so much hate and why are the haters not just unsubscribed? Haters, if there were so many could have changed the numbers drastically. But the fact is, that is game is not dieing but growing on the contrary. These forums give quite a distorted image on how the state of the game is. Luckely when you play it, you notice, it's in fact the other way around.

 

Questioning information is not "hating" something. Though ironically, your suggestion of, and I'm paraphrasing here, "shut up and go away, I don't like your opinion and want to silence you for daring to question or criticize SWTOR", is ultimately what those of us who DO subscribe to the game actually do NOT want to see others do.

 

Becuase if everyone unsubscribes, then we won't be able to group with anyone.

 

Kind of how it is now... relatively difficult to get groups together, sometimes. Because there aren't always that many people around on planets.

[Fezzhan]

Funny. For a game that's doing so well, and has such growth, there sure aren't many people to group with...

There are too many servers.. So the ppl are scattered..Maybe a merging could ease this situation

[DTuloJr]

In any event, without understanding how the investment into the game was funded or how it is treated from an accounting or tax standpoint, we have no way of knowing whether this game is financially profitable as of now or as of when or anything really.

 

Now that's dead on accurate. It should also be noted that EA, and LA, LFL, BW, and BWA, all have parts of the money puzzle that's likely factored into the $80-300+ million dollar figures that are floating around. What may be considered profit by one company, may ultimately still be considered a loss for the overall conglomeration. We have no way of knowing.

 

What we do know, though, is that EA appears to be in a minor panic mode. Everything that I've seen suggests that with respect to SWTOR, it may be deserved, because they've unleased spin campaigns. Which your posts pretty much seem a part of. As an FYI.

[Harabek]

I'm part of the "active subs" as of 1st Feb. Yet i canceled, like almost all players i know that started this game. Some of them started with a 6 months sub (because we all thought it cant be that bad that you don't even survive 6 months). Oh boy, were we wrong

 

Lucky me, i changed it to a 1 month after the Ilum patch, so mine is running out soon.

 

Fan-boy all you want, that doesn't make it a less boring or buggy game.

[DTuloJr]

There are too many servers.. So the ppl are scattered..Maybe a merging could ease this situation

 

So... closing some servers because populations don't warrant that many? Yeah... even if it were necessary, there's no way this would be approved, because that would DESTROY investor confidence, immediately.

 

No, they need to keep them open. All of them. For now.

[WhiskyJax]

Exactly. Though perhaps its only an "illusion" that there may only be 40-60 players on some planets at a particular time... Because I'd expect hundreds on every planet at all hours, with how they're spinning subscription statistics.

 

You are also expecting that everyone will be playing at once, that all 1.7 million players are all on at the same time. Not even Wow can claim that with 10 million players. As i have said many times recently how many people do you think a full server an hold? Because until we know that for certain a light server might contain 500 or 2000. Everyone who says "look the game is dying" never seems to want to talk about cap sizes if for no other reason then it would paint them into a corner they can't talk themselves out of.

[Harabek]

Is anyone else kind of scared by the power of fanboism to distort people's view of reality?

 

Yes, its scary and wrong on so many levels.

[Ghaiana]

Questioning information is not "hating" something. Though ironically, your suggestion of, and I'm paraphrasing here, "shut up and go away, I don't like your opinion and want to silence you for daring to question or criticize SWTOR", is ultimately what those of us who DO subscribe to the game actually do NOT want to see others do.

 

Becuase if everyone unsubscribes, then we won't be able to group with anyone.

 

Kind of how it is now... relatively difficult to get groups together, sometimes. Because there aren't always that many people around on planets.

 

I don't dismiss the people who have problems with the game (like freezing, not finding groups) I do dismiss those that only say this game suckz without much reasoning and there are quite a lot of them on these forums. About grouping, I personally have no problems finding groups, but that is probably because I play with rl friends.

 

I can imagine though how boring it is to wait for a group half of your playtime (I've done it in the past as well). Best solution remains to find a good guild or some rl people who can play with you. Even if there are lots of people around you, chances are they won't group with you anyway. Not because they don't like you, simply because they don't know you.

[DTuloJr]

I'm worried not because of the numbers but because of the haste in throwing out patches so messily that we have to repatch them a day later with unplanned downtime.

 

That's because they ignored their testers and pushed the game out the door prematurely. By about 3 months. There are MULTIPLE possible reasons for this, ranging from pure arrogance on the part of management and devs, to marketing pressures, to licensing *requirements*. Regardless, the fact is that with the exception of the exploits and the occasional "oops, we just broke something else with this patch that QA didn't catch", most of the major issues that are being patched are something that was known for a *very* long time.

 

Now *that* is information that concerns me; a willingness to reap short term profit gains in exchange for potential long term brand reputation damage or ultimate product failure due to overriding a need to correct identified issues prior to them becoming known to a larger customer base.

[DTuloJr]

I don't dismiss the people who have problems with the game (like freezing, not finding groups) I do dismiss those that only say this game suckz without much reasoning and there are quite a lot of them on these forums.

 

That is very true; whether praise or criticism, such posts should be specific and at least attempt at being constructive. If only to provide others with valid discussion points.

 

About grouping, I personally have no problems finding groups, but that is probably because I play with rl friends.

 

I can imagine though how boring it is to wait for a group half of your playtime (I've done it in the past as well). Best solution remains to find a good guild or some rl people who can play with you. Even if there are lots of people around you, chances are they won't group with you anyway. Not because they don't like you, simply because they don't know you.

 

As do I, occasionally. A proper LFG tool akin to a Dungeon Finder, something begged for since early beta, would go a long way to eliminating long waits for a lot of people wanting to experience content that they paid for, but can not for one or more reasons. But that's a topic for a different thread.

[DTuloJr]

You are also expecting that everyone will be playing at once, that all 1.7 million players are all on at the same time. Not even Wow can claim that with 10 million players. As i have said many times recently how many people do you think a full server an hold? Because until we know that for certain a light server might contain 500 or 2000. Everyone who says "look the game is dying" never seems to want to talk about cap sizes if for no other reason then it would paint them into a corner they can't talk themselves out of.

 

The typical MMO server handles about 12,000 users online simultaneously, with some handling upwards of 20,000 concurrent online users. Based on observation alone, I expect that SWTOR's limits are somewhat nearer to the 5-8k mark, than 20k. Regardless, most planets on most servers seem rather devoid of a large amount of players. Possibly deliberate through instancing, possibly not. Cap sizes do not explain servers being empty of active players. They merely are one explanation for server queues, or lack thereof.

[Dosblade]

What do people think they just got all this info in one day and posted it? And why do some people just RUN with this? Does anyone remember some other mmos that had the best launch ever.. Record sales.. blah blah blah and those MMO's are doing what now?

 

I love the "and growing". Great thought but ask them to post sales during launch till now. Not how many sub's there are.. ask how many PLAYING NOW. My son hardly plays any more ..guess what.. yep one of those 1.7..NOT PLAYING still paying.

 

But in all truth we know theres going to be some "PR" work and this world is not like it was 5 years ago ..times are tough on some people. So its going to take a good 6-12 months to see if this game takes off not each month which will be up and down for awhile.

[PhazeFadis]

Over 2 million sold? OK - let's say 2.2 million.

 

Only 1.7 million active accounts?

 

 

The ONLY way (outside of never opening the box and tossing the game in the trash) a player could not be an active account is to have played 30 days and cancelled.

 

To have done that, you would've had to have bought the game BEFORE - at the latest - Jan 1.

 

How many bought the game before Jan 1? 1.5 million-ish sound fair? Probably your hardest core MMO gamers and Star Wars fans...

 

Among THAT crowd.... you've already had 500k CANCEL their account after 1 month... AMONG THAT CROWD... I would not say that is a particularly good omen for the long-term succes of the game.

 

We won't hear much for another 3 months and those numbers should be far more telling. I'd say it's less than 50% they have 1 million legit subscribers by the end of March.