Two Simple Truths about SWTOR's Success

[iheartnyc]

As of February 1, 2012, there are 1.7 million active subscribers.

 

As of February 1, 2012, that number is GROWING.

 

Thank you.

 

p.s. Before you jump in with a comment about how the press release is a lie, please note that material misstatements by a US publicly listed company (covered by the SEC) in press releases may constitute a violation of Section 17(a) of the Securities Act of 1933, Sections 10(b) and 13(b)(5) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and Exchange Act Rules 10b 5 and 13b2-1. Unless you are suggesting that EA is risking violation of federal securities laws just to boost their numbers, the press release is credible.

 

p.p.s. My point is simply this: clearly SWTOR is not going anywhere for a while. In fact, all indications (and statements by EA, who would have their monthly management accounts indicating subscriber trends) show that the base is GROWING (unless, again, you believe EA would lie and risk the wrath of the SEC and shareholder lawsuits including big institutional investors and banks with an army of lawyers).

[Poogination]

As of February 1, 2012, there are 1.7 million active subscribers.

 

As of February 1, 2012, that number is GROWING.

 

Thank you.

 

p.s. Before you jump in with a comment about how the press release is a lie, please note that material misstatements by a US publicly listed company (covered by the SEC) in press releases may constitute a violation of Section 17(a) of the Securities Act of 1933, Sections 10(b) and 13(b)(5) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and Exchange Act Rules 10b 5 and 13b2-1. Unless you are suggesting that EA is risking violation of federal securities laws just to boost their numbers, the press release is credible.

 

p.p.s. My point is simply this: clearly SWTOR is not going anywhere for a while. In fact, all indications (and statements by EA, who would have their monthly management accounts indicating subscriber trends) show that the base is GROWING (unless, again, you believe EA would lie and risk the wrath of the SEC and shareholder lawsuits including big institutional investors and banks with an army of lawyers).

 

This isn't as of February 1st, this was taken at the end of the year for EA's quarterly finance report. This still includes players who had the free month of gameplay.

 

It's been a little less than 1 month and 1/2 since the game came out; this is very premature to decide how successful this MMORPG really is.

 

Rift seemed very successful upon launch, but 3 months down the road the game was desolate. Stop allowing your fanboyism to blind you.

Edited February 2, 2012 by Poogination

[iheartnyc]

This isn't as of February first, this was taken at the end of the year for EA's quarterly finance report. This still includes players who had the free month of gameplay.

 

It's been a little less than 1 month and 1/2 since the game came out; this is very premature to decide how successful this MMORPG really is.

 

Rift seemed very successful upon launch, but 3 months down the road the game was desolate. Stop allowing your fanboyism to blind you.

 

No!

 

The financial results are as of the third quarter ended December 31, 2011. The PRESS RELEASE, which mentions the said results, and the subscription numbers, are as of February 1, 2012. Please read the date of the press release, which was also filed on EDGAR (SEC's filing system) on February 1.

 

Thank you.

 

p.s. I'm not a fanboy. As I stated in another post, I work in M&A and capital markets. I'm just clarifying for people who probably don't know how to interpret press releases and financial results (particularly those who mistakenly believe that press releases are lies, or don't know the effective date of press releases).

Edited February 2, 2012 by iheartnyc

[Kelenae]

Talking about grasping at straws.. keep it up bioware your doing good. The doubters trying everything to get any info to talk bad about the game now.

[Poogination]

No!

 

The financial results are the the third quarter ended December 31, 2011. The PRESS RELEASE, which mentions the said results, and the subscription numbers, are as of February 1, 2012. Please read the date of the press release, which was also filed on EDGAR (SEC's filing system) on February 1.

 

Thank you.

 

Don't you understand that JUST because it's a press release doesn't mean the numbers being reported is AS of the date of said press release?

 

Regardless if it was February 1st or not, it's still extremely premature to decide whether or not TOR is going to be successful. Success for an MMORPG is measured 3-6 months after release.

 

My point still stands.

Edited February 2, 2012 by Poogination

[Poogination]

Talking about grasping at straws.. keep it up bioware your doing good. The doubters trying everything to get any info to talk bad about the game now.

 

I'm not grasping at anything.

 

Never once did I comment about how good/bad the game is.

 

Again, your fanboyism is blinding you into reading things I didn't say. Think outside the box for once.

[iheartnyc]

Don't you understand that JUST because it's a press release doesn't mean the numbers being reported is AS of the date of said press release?

 

Regardless if it was February 1st or not, it's still extremely premature to decide whether or not TOR is going to be successful.

 

My point still stands.

 

Let me spell it out for you. MY JOB is to interpret financial results and press releases. Statements contained in press releases are AS OF THE DATE OF THE PRESS RELEASE (February 1). FINANCIAL RESULTS are filed SEPARATELY or as an EXHIBIT to the PRESS RELEASE.

 

Simple enough?

 

Also, financial statements (IS/BS/SCF and notes thereto) typically do NOT contain "subscription base" numbers, as those are NOT financial numbers and CANNOT be audited by accountants (and thus, cannot be submitted for filing to the SEC). Subscription numbers are OPERATIONAL numbers, which are stated by the filing company, and released through other means including press releases, or periodic monthly management account filings to the SEC.

Edited February 2, 2012 by iheartnyc

[Poogination]

Let me spell it out for you. MY JOB is to interpret financial results and press releases. Statements contained in press releases are AS OF THE DATE OF THE PRESS RELEASE (February 1). FINANCIAL RESULTS are filed SEPARATELY or as an EXHIBIT to the PRESS RELEASE.

 

Simple enough?

 

Why is it so difficult for you to address what I'm saying? I'm not talking about this anymore.

[Etapi]

It obviously is not. He is thinking outside the box

 

You are clearly right, and the game is a growing success, despite the haters.

[areto]

Is anyone else kind of scared by the power of fanboism to distort people's view of reality? Edited February 2, 2012 by areto

[Garric]

Why is it so difficult for you to address what I'm saying? I'm not talking about this anymore.

 

You are correct that it is too early to judge how well this game will do long run. I think what many react to is the "it will be free to play in 2 days crowd". The numbers that we have do look good, but as you say it is still early. I think people just see this as fanboys and haters and you are either one or the other and any word of caution like you said makes you a hater and and positive thing makes you a fanboy.

 

Sad really but that is how the forums seem to be.

[iheartnyc]

Why is it so difficult for you to address what I'm saying? I'm not talking about this anymore.

 

Seriously? OK here goes, line by line what you wrote, and my responses:

 

"This isn't as of February 1st, this was taken at the end of the year for EA's quarterly finance report. This still includes players who had the free month of gameplay."

 

I posted addressing that it is indeed as of February 1, and corrected your misinterpretation of the dating of press releases and Q3 report.

 

"It's been a little less than 1 month and 1/2 since the game came out; this is very premature to decide how successful this MMORPG really is."

 

This comment was irrelevant to my OP, which was about the current GROWTH of the game, as of February 1. I cannot predict the future as neither can you. But as of now, the game is growing, and it is NOT failing as people state.

 

"Rift seemed very successful upon launch, but 3 months down the road the game was desolate. Stop allowing your fanboyism to blind you."

 

This is not Rift. And I'm not a fanboy. I've posted criticism/suggestions of the game before, several times.

 

"Don't you understand that JUST because it's a press release doesn't mean the numbers being reported is AS of the date of said press release?"

 

Again, I addressed this point twice.

 

"Regardless if it was February 1st or not, it's still extremely premature to decide whether or not TOR is going to be successful. Success for an MMORPG is measured 3-6 months after release."

 

No, it is not extremely premature. And I did not say TOR was going to be successful, I only stated that it was growing as of Febraury 1.

 

"My point still stands."

 

What point?

[Krrova]

p.s. Before you jump in with a comment about how the press release is a lie, please note that material misstatements by a US publicly listed company (covered by the SEC) in press releases may constitute a violation of Section 17(a) of the Securities Act of 1933, Sections 10(b) and 13(b)(5) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and Exchange Act Rules 10b 5 and 13b2-1. Unless you are suggesting that EA is risking violation of federal securities laws just to boost their numbers, the press release is credible.

 

 

:confused:

 

 

 

Not saying you or EA is a liar, but I have a hard time imagining where those 1.7 million people are hiding..

 

I know there are a lot of servers and not everyone plays at the same time, but still..

 

 

But after the downfall of population on servers since BETA/Launch I am noticing that servers are getting more busier again, which is a good think

 

 

If they have really hit 1.7 million then kudos to them and with this rate maybe sometime in the distant future they will be able to pay of the development cost and actually make some profit on the game

[iheartnyc]

:confused:

 

 

 

Not saying you or EA is a liar, but I have a hard time imagining where those 1.7 million people are hiding..

 

 

Well if EA is lying, heads will roll.

[Skouros]

Is anyone else kind of scared by the power of fanboism to distort people's view of reality?

I'm not scared in the least by it. And as a fan of this game myself, I should be at the very least irritated by it. I want the game to improve, and calling it perfect won't really encourage that (though I'm not sure Bioware dictates how much effort they put into improving and adding to their game based on their subscribers current level of enjoyment of it...)

 

The facts are there, this guy is simply stating that A) he does this for a living, and knows what he is talking about, and B) this is what it means.

 

He's right. Denying it because it doesn't support your expectations for the game makes anyone who does so look like a fool.

 

I for one don't really care that much about the current health status of the game's subscription numbers. As long as I still enjoy the game, I will continue to play it, regardless of what you or anyone else thinks.

[LogicalPremise]

As of February 1, 2012, there are 1.7 million active subscribers.

 

As of February 1, 2012, that number is GROWING.

 

Thank you.

 

p.s. Before you jump in with a comment about how the press release is a lie, please note that material misstatements by a US publicly listed company (covered by the SEC) in press releases may constitute a violation of Section 17(a) of the Securities Act of 1933, Sections 10(b) and 13(b)(5) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and Exchange Act Rules 10b 5 and 13b2-1. Unless you are suggesting that EA is risking violation of federal securities laws just to boost their numbers, the press release is credible.

 

p.p.s. My point is simply this: clearly SWTOR is not going anywhere for a while. In fact, all indications (and statements by EA, who would have their monthly management accounts indicating subscriber trends) show that the base is GROWING (unless, again, you believe EA would lie and risk the wrath of the SEC and shareholder lawsuits including big institutional investors and banks with an army of lawyers).

 

I have no problem with the numbers.

 

I simply state the same thing I stated to the trolls: analysis of future trends based on a month's performance data will ALWAYS end up with someone with pie on their face.

 

There's no more logic to be found in "teh game iz dying" and "teh game is not dying" based on this than in looking in a box of macaroni for the answers. We'll all find out what is really happening after March.

 

Most reasonable people are going to resub to see what improves in 3 months. If the game is not doing well after 3 months in terms of improvements, you'll probably see another drop of some kind.

 

If on the other hand the situation markedly improves, you'll see continued growth.

 

I'm happy the pilots of the Tortanic meme crashed on their own iceberg of fail, but that does not mean I'm going to toss reason away and use the same limited metric that failed for them to predict success now.

[Etapi]

hes not.. hes talking about something else. something entirely valid.

 

This Game is BAD

 

The highlighted section is your opinion, plain and simple. My guildmates would tend to disagree. The OP's post is valid and correct.

[Skouros]

Some people clearly WANT the game to fail, and its success will NOT deter them in the least from seeing that result...

 

*sigh*

[Frammshamm]

 

The facts are there, this guy is simply stating that A) he does this for a living, and knows what he is talking about, and B) this is what it means.

 

He's right. Denying it because it doesn't support your expectations for the game makes anyone who does so look like a fool..

 

Yes. facts because he said so on the forums.

[Zangaboing]

I'm happy the pilots of the Tortanic meme crashed on their own iceberg of fail, but that does not mean I'm going to toss reason away and use the same limited metric that failed for them to predict success now.

 

Can i use this as my sig?

[Krrova]

Some people clearly WANT the game to fail, and its success will NOT deter them in the least from seeing that result...

 

*sigh*

 

 

what can bring near-whiteout conditions, and can paralyze regions for days at a time?

 

 

HINT:

 

It's a Blizzard

[Seronic_]

I have no problem with the numbers.

 

I simply state the same thing I stated to the trolls: analysis of future trends based on a month's performance data will ALWAYS end up with someone with pie on their face.

 

There's no more logic to be found in "teh game iz dying" and "teh game is not dying" based on this than in looking in a box of macaroni for the answers. We'll all find out what is really happening after March.

 

Most reasonable people are going to resub to see what improves in 3 months. If the game is not doing well after 3 months in terms of improvements, you'll probably see another drop of some kind.

 

If on the other hand the situation markedly improves, you'll see continued growth.

 

I'm happy the pilots of the Tortanic meme crashed on their own iceberg of fail, but that does not mean I'm going to toss reason away and use the same limited metric that failed for them to predict success now.

 

They used baseless accusations backed with false information for their "Tortanic" ideology. The OP simply puts into context what was said in the press release, informing others that as his job is to analyze such releases, he knows a great deal of information about this. Putting the facts out there is not using the same "limited metric" that failed for those who were, as I already stated, using baseless accusations backed with falsified information for their claims.

 

The press release is factual, present information. I would say the game is currently a success and is by no means in trouble regardless of all the naysayers that flood these forums daily. Keep in mind that the Facebook counter is almost at 1.6 million people alone. I think that has to say for something about the success of this game.

[iheartnyc]

I have no problem with the numbers.

 

I simply state the same thing I stated to the trolls: analysis of future trends based on a month's performance data will ALWAYS end up with someone with pie on their face.

 

There's no more logic to be found in "teh game iz dying" and "teh game is not dying" based on this than in looking in a box of macaroni for the answers. We'll all find out what is really happening after March.

 

Most reasonable people are going to resub to see what improves in 3 months. If the game is not doing well after 3 months in terms of improvements, you'll probably see another drop of some kind.

 

If on the other hand the situation markedly improves, you'll see continued growth.

 

I'm happy the pilots of the Tortanic meme crashed on their own iceberg of fail, but that does not mean I'm going to toss reason away and use the same limited metric that failed for them to predict success now.

 

I agree with you. I really WANT the game to succeed (Given how much time I've already invested into it, and I want that investment to be worthwhile), but yes, press releases are not meant to be indicators of future success (as disclaimed in the press release). However, the numbers and indications are good, and based on that, I see no reason to bet against the game's success.

[Frammshamm]

Oh boy, if I post a picture calling you an idiot from my office holding up all manner of pitchbooks and SEC filings, will you then kindly let it go?

 

not saying you are lying.. why so defensive. Im just saying that his statement regarding "FACTS" on the forum is hilarious.

[Mashy]

Hahahah that's too funny.

 

Nice try at saving face and blowing it off but you got owned hard hahaha.