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Official: Over 1.7 million active subs, 2 + mil sold


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You were wrong before .... and you will be wrong again.

 

Now you are making up server populations to try and prove a feeble point.

 

so lets check out server pops right now and maybe update every hour.

 

630 PM EST

 

US

1 heavy server -fatman

23 light server

rest standard

 

EU

1 heavy server

24 light servers

rest standard

 

if someone wants to post server status every 1/2 or hour then we can see where all the people that love playing this game are

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85% retention after month 1 is roughly in-line with typical churn, it is a figure which cannot be celebrated or vilified.

 

They hit the 2-million mark sometime in mid-January if I recall, so keep in mind that a lot of the folks they are calling "active subscribers" are actually still in their first free month.

 

The real story will unfold at the 3-month and 6-month milestones.

 

There's really no way to make an informed call without seeing a plethora of figures in context. This would include: Total sales, total subscriptions (payed, not free month), daily-weekly-monthly uniques, average concurrency and peak concurrency.

 

In other words: it's still too soon to tell (and that goes to both camps, the doomsday folks and the fanbois alike).

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The only information that investors need to know is this;

 

  1. How much did development cost, across ALL EA businesses, including all ongoing licensing fees and profit sharing agreements?
  2. Is SWTOR making a *profit*, yet?
  3. If SWTOR has NOT made a profit yet, when is it projected to break even?
  4. How will real-world ongoing expenses of operations, salaries, benefits, administrative overhead, and ongoing development and support of SWTOR effect profit models?

 

NONE of that information has been put out in a press release, or quarterly reports, that I'm aware of. THAT information is what I'd need before I'd invest in EA, based upon the SWTOR propert's current status. (I still think it's a good investment, but I'm just saying that as of *this* particular time period)

 

We can kind of Infer some of this Information. Cost of the development was abotu 200 million as reported by the la times.

EA gets the box sales and Lucas Arts gets a 35% cut of the residual monthly income.

Given 2 million box sales I'd say EA came close to recouping most of the Development cost. We wont know for sure without knowing how many of those Box sales were CE DDE or SD.

 

If the game can hold steady at 1.7 million subs they will bring in about 16 million a month. Thats accounting for LA residual. Id say if they hadn't recouped Development cost of box sales they will off subs in 3-6 months.

 

We still won't know what kinds of operating margins its running on tho.

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You understand earnings calls are pretty serious and if you lie there are very serious consequences right?

 

Nevermind, you probably have no idea.

 

The Rebuttle :p

 

What you mean EA didnt just make numbers up? and it could actually be the truth?

Even though I dont believe it, and I play games so i know what Im talking about they must be clearly lying, I mean im not enjoying the game, therefore its a failure and EA are doing some big cover up to make it look like its doing well, when we all ( Im speaking for all of you right now) know its not, and those who disagree are just blind fanbois, come into the light and be part of the flock who know the real truth!!!!!!!

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someone humour me, 7900 average players per server is required to have 1.7mill with the current number of servers.

 

Server I played on (yeah, past tense) is has been standard whenever I've looked at the status at peak time post 1.1

 

Can someone who plays on a heavy load server honestly tell me they think they are on a server with over 9000 (;)) other players?

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The Rebuttle :p

 

What you mean EA didnt just make numbers up? and it could actually be the truth?

Even though I dont believe it, and I play games so i know what Im talking about they must be clearly lying, I mean im not enjoying the game, therefore its a failure and EA are doing some big cover up to make it look like its doing well, when we all ( Im speaking for all of you right now) know its not, and those who disagree are just blind fanbois, come into the light and be part of the flock who know the real truth!!!!!!!

 

Your right. In no way are they trying to mislead people in the way they worded it. Please go though and tell me anything that I said is inacurate about the way they worded it. Just as you can say they didnt lie about anything in their press release you cannot say I lied about anything I said about their press release.

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so lets check out server pops right now and maybe update every hour.

 

630 PM EST

 

US

1 heavy server -fatman

23 light server

rest standard

 

EU

1 heavy server

24 light servers

rest standard

 

if someone wants to post server status every 1/2 or hour then we can see where all the people that love playing this game are

 

Several sites already do the work for you :9.

 

http://www.mmo-junkies.net/statistics/

 

http://www.torstatus.net/

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someone humour me, 7900 average players per server is required to have 1.7mill with the current number of servers.

 

Server I played on (yeah, past tense) is has been standard whenever I've looked at the status at peak time post 1.1

 

Can someone who plays on a heavy load server honestly tell me they think they are on a server with over 9000 (;)) other players?

 

You keep posting this like an "ah-ha gotcha moment" but your logic is flawed. Nobody plays 24-7 and the average (according to the report) is 4hours. So take a 24 hour day and split is into 1/6 increments (the avg play time) and re test you population averages again.

Edited by AkulaX
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someone humour me, 7900 average players per server is required to have 1.7mill with the current number of servers.

 

Server I played on (yeah, past tense) is has been standard whenever I've looked at the status at peak time post 1.1

 

Can someone who plays on a heavy load server honestly tell me they think they are on a server with over 9000 (;)) other players?

 

They didn't lie about the 1.7 million number.

 

Do you understand the consequences EA would have for lying on the conference call? Do you understand that the SEC reviews EA's books? Do you understand that if the numbers don't add up EA will be DELISTED from the Stock Market? DO you understand that a stock being delisted from the stock market is way worse then just publishing bad sub numbers?

 

And finally your anecdotal evidence =/= the 1.7 million figure quoted in an INVESTOR CONFERENCE CALL.

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You keep posting this like an "ah-ha gotcha moment" but your logic is flawed. Nobody plays 24-7 and the average (according to the report) is 4hours. So take a 24 hour day and split is into 1/6 increments (the avg play time) and re test you population averages gain.

 

And a lot of that average 4 hours is bigger beause of christmas break.

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You keep posting this like an "ah-ha gotcha moment" but your logic is flawed. Nobody plays 24-7 and the average (according to the report) is 4hours. So take a 24 hour day and split is into 1/6 increments (the avg play time) and re test you population averages gain.

 

I've posted it twice because I find it hard to believe that there's 8k players per server and was wondering if anyone actually thinks this "feels" like the right number for their server.

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I've posted it twice because I find it hard to believe that there's 8k players per server and was wondering if anyone actually thinks this "feels" like the right number for their server.

 

Assigned to a server sure. Mine at least i could easily see there being 8k players not all on at once.

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You keep posting this like an "ah-ha gotcha moment" but your logic is flawed. Nobody plays 24-7 and the average (according to the report) is 4hours. So take a 24 hour day and split is into 1/6 increments (the avg play time) and re test you population averages again.

 

Now that is a gotcha moment for the haters.

 

Well done.

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I've posted it twice because I find it hard to believe that there's 8k players per server and was wondering if anyone actually thinks this "feels" like the right number for their server.

 

Now you are talking about our "feelings"? How about we whip out the ouija, throw some chicken bones into rats blood and really get technical about this.

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I've posted it twice because I find it hard to believe that there's 8k players per server and was wondering if anyone actually thinks this "feels" like the right number for their server.

 

So.... you are saying EA is lying? Because we aren't discussing how many people you see in the game. This thread is discussing how many active subscribers SWTOR has.

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You keep posting this like an "ah-ha gotcha moment" but your logic is flawed. Nobody plays 24-7 and the average (according to the report) is 4hours. So take a 24 hour day and split is into 1/6 increments (the avg play time) and re test you population averages again.

 

While I take your point to some degree, it would be silly to suggest that a server population is spread evenly throughout the day like that. Clearly there are peak times and dead times.

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The xfire reports show a totally different ball game. Official market watch and financial reports by EA are lies.... This game is dying and everyone knows it. All you need to read is the xfire numbers. I get my info from xfire.. not these "official" market reports.

 

The writer of the article is obviously on the take.....and if anyone doesn't think so, you're naive to say the least.

 

http://www.xfire.com/games/swtor/Star_Wars_The_Old_Republic/

 

This is clearly showing a nose-dive in players of SWTOR. For those of you who don't know what xfire is/does. It knows the exact number of connections to any game, not just those who use the software.

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someone humour me, 7900 average players per server is required to have 1.7mill with the current number of servers.

 

Server I played on (yeah, past tense) is has been standard whenever I've looked at the status at peak time post 1.1

 

Can someone who plays on a heavy load server honestly tell me they think they are on a server with over 9000 (;)) other players?

 

Do you get not everyone plays everyday and at the same time?

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While I take your point to some degree, it would be silly to suggest that a server population is spread evenly throughout the day like that. Clearly there are peak times and dead times.

 

Of course it wouldn't be accurate. But a hell of a lot better then wondering why it doesn't "feel" like there is 7900 people playing on his server.

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