What Determines SWTOR's Failure?

[TruCompany]

I like this thread. Interesting read.

[Laeris]

I keep seeing all these threads in this forum and the running theme is that SWTOR is going to fail is failing has already failed. The time lines for these failure projections range from 2 weeks to 6 months to a year, but what determines if SWTOR is a failure?

 

1. EA/Bioware lost money due to high development costs ($300 million) so SWTOR is a financial failure!

 

The fact is the game has sold at least 1.5 million copies already recouping about $90 million. Even if they don't sell another copy and 50% of the buyers unsubscribe they still recoup all their costs in little over a year and this doesn't even take into account the additional money brought in by the CE editions or DD editions

 

2. The game will fail because tons of people are unsubscribing and SWTOR will just die from lack of players!

 

The fact is not every game is WoW, every game doesn't need 11 million players to stay alive. There are plenty of MMOs that not only survive but thrive with only a few hundred thousand players and are in no danger of being shut down. Star Wars Galaxies lasted over 8 years with a rather small player base compared to WoW. Even if 90% of all the current SWTOR players quit it still would not die. If you judge the success or failure of a MMO on whether it knocks WoW off the MMO mountain then every MMO is a failure in your eyes.

 

3. SWTOR is failing so bad it will be Free To Play in "X" weeks/months!

 

The fact is a game going Free To Play doesn't constitute a failure. In fact most MMOs that switch from a subscription based business model to a Free to Play + Microtransactions business model see a surge in their player base. Examples being LOTRO and DC Universe Online, which is a perfect example as it had a great release then lost most of it's subscribers in the first few months then late last year they went free to play + microtransactions and then gained over 1 million new players. Farmville works on a free to play + microtransactions model and has a player base of over 110 million players with an average 32 million players playing online at any given moment. Zynga makes over $500 million a year just from Farmville. A game being or becoming free to play hardly constitutes a failure in fact it is probably just the opposite.

 

So exactly what has determined that SWTOR will fail and/or die? What massive MMO expertise do you bring to the table that allows you disregard the above facts? What makes SWTOR a failure? Because you or many of you have decided to quit playing? I hate to break it to you but SWTOR will still be alive and well for years to come whether you are here or not.

 

Short answer: Self righteous forum posters. Duh.

[Hingster]

im sure BW will continue to give in to EA, they are in it for the money pure and simple. no other reason to take a chance with so much money other than to get way more than you put in. BW will have to udjust to it taking longer to reach those numbers it so easily thought it could reach early in the MMO game Edited January 13, 2012 by Hingster

[Telske]

If you're going to read the forums (and I mean the forums for ANY game), you'll need to remember not to put a lot of stock in what you see there. The majority of stuff posted is pure gloom and doom and it will jade you. Just play the game. If you enjoy it, keep playing. If not, then find something else.

 

It's as simple as that.

Edited January 13, 2012 by Telske

[Scar]

1. EA/Bioware lost money due to high development costs ($300 million) so SWTOR is a financial failure!

 

Source?

 

Why do people keep using this debunked number as fact?

Edited January 13, 2012 by Scar

[Kraith]

There are too many reasons why it fails for me to list, but to put it simply, to me it fails because there are too many crucial things wrong to continue paying $15 for it.

 

It's as simple as that. The game is fun, but the fun only lasts temporarily. And in an MMO that is not a good thing.

 

Lets see, you pay $15 for dinner at McDonalds and that can lead to tons of health issues, yet, you continue to go back...

 

 

Honestly, if $15 is breaking you to the point you need to list the price per month, then you need to not play a subscription base game. Next, the game is more than worth $15 if you only play it 3 times a month for 3 hours each time. You pay $50 for one meal at Outback which you will crap out in a few hours and are only left with the taste of the stake when you burp. You can not complain about the game costing $15 when you pay that much for something you can never enjoy or will never have the option to be enjoyed in the future.

 

Just saying $15 is not that much $$$.

[Smokeydubbs]

im sure BW will continue to give in to EA, they are in it for the money pure and simple. no other reason to take a chance with so much money other than to get way more than you put in. BW will have to udjust to it taking longer to reach those numbers it so easily thought it could reach early in the MMO game

 

Wouldn't it be in their best interest to keep the game going strong for as long as possible then? MMO's can make a lot of money for a long time. The game has already been released, the chance has been taken, it's down to them making it playable and fun for a long time. No business, no matter how greedy, would do such a thing, cut losses on a project this big so soon.

 

People need to have some damn patience with this game. No one on these forums really knows what's going on, so being impatient and threatening to leave DOES NOTHING. If you really want them to succeed, or more fun for you, then keep supporting it! ************ and moaning about everything on the forums and wanting free months doesn't help. Put in constructive bug reports in game or contact customer support. The forums aren't the place to do that.

 

Just remember, 1.1 hasn't even dropped yet. It takes time to fix and add things. No developer can do that instantly. So to everyone complaining, get over yourselves.

Edited January 13, 2012 by Smokeydubbs

[kijthae]

The failure is calling a game as failure but using its official forums.

[Mishe]

I think you are having issues understanding something. If it's a failure to me...it's a failure to me. And to me that's all that matters. Whether it's a failure to you or anyone else doesn't really matter to me, now does it?

 

Hey genius, you know that theory works in reverse. What your opinion is of the game doesn't really matter either. Off you go, thanks for playing.

[oflow]

The big issue is the ability delay. They say they have fixes for it but if its not patched by the end of the month a bunch of ppl will leave.

 

Theres a lot of ppl that have maxed chars and cleared all the content so pvp is the bulk of their play time. If they cant really enjoy it because of the buggy combat ppl will start to drift off.

[TheHeadCapper]

Source?

 

Why do people keep using this debunked number as fact?

 

Because they read it on the internet once so it must be true. As you said, it's been debunked but that doesn't matter.

[TheHeadCapper]

The big issue is the ability delay. They say they have fixes for it but if its not patched by the end of the month a bunch of ppl will leave.

 

Theres a lot of ppl that have maxed chars and cleared all the content so pvp is the bulk of their play time. If they cant really enjoy it because of the buggy combat ppl will start to drift off.

 

I think the people who will leave knowing an incoming patch is going to fix their problems within a very short time from release probably didn't have much intention to stay in the first place.

 

For all the doom and gloom, it's funny that none of the people i know are actually quitting and more people are joining the game. But yah....

[Hingster]

Wouldn't it be in their best interest to keep the game going strong for as long as possible then? MMO's can make a lot of money for a long time. The game has already been released, the chance has been taken, it's down to them making it playable and fun for a long time. No business, no matter how greedy, would do such a thing, cut losses on a project this big so soon.

 

People need to have some damn patience with this game. No one on these forums really knows what's going on, so being impatient and threatening to leave DOES NOTHING. If you really want them to succeed, or more fun for you, then keep supporting it! ************ and moaning about everything on the forums and wanting free months doesn't help. Put in constructive bug reports in game or contact customer support. The forums aren't the place to do that.

 

Just remember, 1.1 hasn't even dropped yet. It takes time to fix and add things. No developer can do that instantly. So to everyone complaining, get over yourselves.

 

Im worried that their is a major problem with the engine and it affects the whole game so with a crappy foundation they are going to play it slow just getting a feel of how much the custumer can take and what they have to produce to keep the investment going

[Kalfear]

Ive said thisa before and Ill say it again (and im sure some hater will twist it to make the standard even stricter and some fanboi will balk at it saying its already a huge success)

 

It doesnt matter if TOR makes its money back, I personallt think it will in spades and even show very good financial success for the first and 2nd quarters after release.

 

TOR will be a failure if it doesnt reach its financial and investor expectations.

 

And those expectations have been a LONG TERM, HIGH SUBCRIPTION NUMBER RETURN!

 

I truely and honestly beleive this game was sold to EA Investors as a VERY HIGH RATE OF RETURN investment spread over many years.

 

While no one here knows the exact number, based on everthing Ive seen (and fact im not 20 something or younger with no world experience) TOR will need to do 3+ years of OVER 3 million subs to hit the LOW END of investor expectations. THE LOW END.

 

Investors not interested in breaking even, they want to make money and ALLOT OF IT and that means TOR has to deliver long term in Lower end WOW numbers.

 

 

I dont think anyone could seriously say 11 million to 20 million was feasible but 5-6 million subs for Star Wars? Completely in the realm of possiblity if the game produces and stands up to scrutiny!

 

Sadly, While I personally enjoy TOR and have subbed for 6 months, I dont think TOR will hit its projected numbers and I dont think TOR will have the long term viability EA/Bioware projected and the reasons why fall ENTIRELY on EA/Bioware for making bad bussiness choices on key areas of the game.

 

So in the end, TOR should have been the next big MMORPG will have to settle for average success and following and will have to work very hard to not fall into the SWG subscription bleeding awaay syndrome.

 

And its entirely their own faults and no one elses.

 

Their failure to obtain market saturation was completely predictable based on the design choices they ran with.

[Drallbait]

Source?

 

Why do people keep using this debunked number as fact?

 

Because you are arguing on the internet, where the only rule is that your "facts" have to fit your argument.

 

SWTOR won't fail financially for sure in terms of not paying back what EA paid for it, but for me, it fails if it can't sustain half to 1 million subs for a few years. I think that will happen with ease. They sold a lot more than a million copies and they appeal to the masses. Unlike Warhammer and others, its a fun game to play solo or with friends that doesn't take months to get involved in if you just run to pick it up at Walmart and play.

 

Financially, appealing to the hardcore MMO crowd is not a big deal either way. Unless you can make a game that appeals to the wide array of people out there, from EVE to LoTRO to FF to WoW, you can't make as much money that way.

[Hingster]

ya kinda makes you wish you could help with this before it get to even this point. Instant gratification hype to the financial success to this game is being played too. But what they may not expected is such a lash out from even some of the community about the game itself.

[Azzras]

The failure is calling a game as failure but using its official forums.

 

OMG I laughed to damn hard cus of this...

 

+1

[Hingster]

Funny you should talk about going to walmart or a game store to get this game. Last night i went to two places to see if the game was availble to be bought, as well as time cards, well no luck, so whoever is in marketing is not doing so well either Edited January 13, 2012 by Hingster

[Mannic]

I keep seeing all these threads in this forum and the running theme is that SWTOR is going to fail is failing has already failed. The time lines for these failure projections range from 2 weeks to 6 months to a year, but what determines if SWTOR is a failure?

 

1. EA/Bioware lost money due to high development costs ($300 million) so SWTOR is a financial failure!

 

The fact is the game has sold at least 1.5 million copies already recouping about $90 million. Even if they don't sell another copy and 50% of the buyers unsubscribe they still recoup all their costs in little over a year and this doesn't even take into account the additional money brought in by the CE editions or DD editions

 

2. The game will fail because tons of people are unsubscribing and SWTOR will just die from lack of players!

 

The fact is not every game is WoW, every game doesn't need 11 million players to stay alive. There are plenty of MMOs that not only survive but thrive with only a few hundred thousand players and are in no danger of being shut down. Star Wars Galaxies lasted over 8 years with a rather small player base compared to WoW. Even if 90% of all the current SWTOR players quit it still would not die. If you judge the success or failure of a MMO on whether it knocks WoW off the MMO mountain then every MMO is a failure in your eyes.

 

3. SWTOR is failing so bad it will be Free To Play in "X" weeks/months!

 

The fact is a game going Free To Play doesn't constitute a failure. In fact most MMOs that switch from a subscription based business model to a Free to Play + Microtransactions business model see a surge in their player base. Examples being LOTRO and DC Universe Online, which is a perfect example as it had a great release then lost most of it's subscribers in the first few months then late last year they went free to play + microtransactions and then gained over 1 million new players. Farmville works on a free to play + microtransactions model and has a player base of over 110 million players with an average 32 million players playing online at any given moment. Zynga makes over $500 million a year just from Farmville. A game being or becoming free to play hardly constitutes a failure in fact it is probably just the opposite.

 

So exactly what has determined that SWTOR will fail and/or die? What massive MMO expertise do you bring to the table that allows you disregard the above facts? What makes SWTOR a failure? Because you or many of you have decided to quit playing? I hate to break it to you but SWTOR will still be alive and well for years to come whether you are here or not.

 

OP is yet another player who doesn't understand mathematics or how business / profits work, yet wants us to take his numbers seriously.

 

1.5 million units does not, in any economy, equate to $90 million. Try half of that.

Edited January 13, 2012 by Mannic

[HavenAE]

I keep seeing all these threads in this forum and the running theme is that SWTOR is going to fail is failing has already failed. The time lines for these failure projections range from 2 weeks to 6 months to a year, but what determines if SWTOR is a failure?

 

1. EA/Bioware lost money due to high development costs ($300 million) so SWTOR is a financial failure!

 

The fact is the game has sold at least 1.5 million copies already recouping about $90 million. Even if they don't sell another copy and 50% of the buyers unsubscribe they still recoup all their costs in little over a year and this doesn't even take into account the additional money brought in by the CE editions or DD editions

 

Except Bioware/EA doesn't get that full 90 million they brought in from box sales. Lucas Arts gets a cut, retailers get a cut, and so on.

 

That 90m might be more like 60m, and last I heard sales were roughly 2.1m world wide, but I cannot verify.

 

2. The game will fail because tons of people are unsubscribing and SWTOR will just die from lack of players!

 

The fact is not every game is WoW, every game doesn't need 11 million players to stay alive. There are plenty of MMOs that not only survive but thrive with only a few hundred thousand players and are in no danger of being shut down. Star Wars Galaxies lasted over 8 years with a rather small player base compared to WoW. Even if 90% of all the current SWTOR players quit it still would not die. If you judge the success or failure of a MMO on whether it knocks WoW off the MMO mountain then every MMO is a failure in your eyes.

 

 

True, and even WoW doesn't and didn't need 10 (is the correct number currently) million subscribers to exist. Most games don't need exceedingly high numbers to keep their heads above water and turn a profit. Only stupid people who know nothing about MMOs think they need millions upon millions of subscribers.

 

WoW has made more money than any MMo could ever hope to make off of their product and it is for all purposes an anomaly in the western markets. As I said, MMOs do not and have never needed to see huge subscription numbers to be successful. MMOs are a time investment. They are created and set on with the concept that X players over X time will yield your investment return and profit. This concept that a MMO needs millions of players is simply false and until WoW was pretty much considered ridiculous. No other MMO in the history of the genre (at least as far as the western market is concerned) had seen numbers that high and likely won't again.

 

To claim otherwise is to prove one truly knows nothing about this market.

 

3. SWTOR is failing so bad it will be Free To Play in "X" weeks/months!

 

The fact is a game going Free To Play doesn't constitute a failure. In fact most MMOs that switch from a subscription based business model to a Free to Play + Microtransactions business model see a surge in their player base. Examples being LOTRO and DC Universe Online, which is a perfect example as it had a great release then lost most of it's subscribers in the first few months then late last year they went free to play + microtransactions and then gained over 1 million new players. Farmville works on a free to play + microtransactions model and has a player base of over 110 million players with an average 32 million players playing online at any given moment. Zynga makes over $500 million a year just from Farmville. A game being or becoming free to play hardly constitutes a failure in fact it is probably just the opposite.

 

Except you never hear much word on how many of those increase in players are actually spending money or stay.

 

Case: SOE's Everquest 2 has recently seen a 300% increase in new players since it went full-on F2P in November, and SOE has even stated an increase in microtransactions per players.

 

Point: But exactly how much of those new players are responsible for that MT increase and how they correlate to that increase wasn't released.

 

2nd case: Yes Zynga games can produce awesome numbers in terms of the multitude of people playing their games, but again correlation to money spent versus those larger playerbase numbers is still a murky subject.

 

2nd point: Zynga games saw a 99% drop in revenue last year. So F2P: microtransactions are at best a sporadic business model in comparison to subscriptions.

 

F2P seems to be more if an attempt to reach WoW like numbers and success than any death sentence or mark of a failed game by either pulling in people looking for freebies with a subed option or looking for tidbits extra revenue while already relying on a decent paying playerbase in the first place.

 

But yes F2P does still have a stigma.

 

In SWTOR's case. WAR is part of EA's stable of MMOs and still charges a sub. EA has also stated they have no plans what-so-ever of making even something as abyssmal as WAR F2P. It only stands to reason they won't being doing it with a game that is at least half decent like SWTOR.

 

Bioware and EA ultimately believe they can provide a better experience to players through a subscription based payment method than through microtransactions or any other free to play environment.

 

 

 

So exactly what has determined that SWTOR will fail and/or die? What massive MMO expertise do you bring to the table that allows you disregard the above facts? What makes SWTOR a failure? Because you or many of you have decided to quit playing? I hate to break it to you but SWTOR will still be alive and well for years to come whether you are here or not.

 

17+ years and over 30 titles of MMO gaming have shown me a lot. I can say I've only ever seen one other MMO receive as much positive media coverage as SWTOR has and that MMO is WoW.

 

MMOs cannot be measured in success simply by the sheer number of subscription it has but more by how well it appeals to its target audience, and true success can only be measured over the long term. and BTW target audience does not necessarily mean just the MMO genre in general.

[Revelationjp]

I think you are having issues understanding something. If it's a failure to me...it's a failure to me. And to me that's all that matters. Whether it's a failure to you or anyone else doesn't really matter to me, now does it?

I'm sorry friend but you're not understanding something. "Failure" is not a subjective term. To "fail" means that something did not meet it's objective. There's no "maybe it's not a failure to you, but it is to me". I'm sorry, but words mean things, and you clearly do not understand the meaning of the word you are using.

[--Grim--]

They could sell garbage in a box labeled "Star Wars" and it would still sell. In fact, they do occassionally.

 

The Star Trek mmo is the only time I ever felt ripped off by an mmo. That could be one of the worst mmo's in history. Yet there are still a bunch of people playing it. SWTOR is a much better game / I.P. than Star Trek so it will do very well even if they really screw up.

 

The point is, SWTOR doesn't have to reach as high a bar as other mmo's to be successful. And so far, the game is actually pretty good. It has some major flaws, but most of them will probably (hopefully) be fixed eventually.

 

SWTOR may not get WoW numbers, but it will make a ton of money, and I doubt anyone on the business end will be disappointed.

Edited January 13, 2012 by --Grim--

[zonedxx]

Swtor is incomplete not even ready for Alpha. Not sure why it was released early, probably pressure from investors. Several aspects of the game are amazing while others are unbearable. The graphics and leveling are amazing! I was taken away by how cool all the planets look and feel. While leveling from 1-25 I felt like "yes this is it, the new gen mmo i've been looking for" Then at some point in the mid 20's I just stopped playing. I am not sure if it was my horrible experience with the pvp (lag,clunky,bad maps,not fun). Sadly, I remember the Jedi Outcast games PvP being 1000% funner with a fraction of swtor's budget. PvP aside after level 20 swtor started feeling like a single player console game. Looking for groups would agitate me to the point of logging. Flashpoints felt meh. Doing a flashpoint more then once felt like being stuck in the movie "groundhog day". The spaceports all kinda look alike and got stale fast. Travel feels fake bulky and not worth the effort involved. I lost complete interest in the game around 25 it felt like the end of movie, a good movie if it makes a difference. Edited January 14, 2012 by zonedxx

[SnoggyMack]

Warhammer Online also sold around a million copies within a week, that cost less to make than The Old Republic. Look how that turned out.

 

Unlike Warhammer, TOR has continued to flourish, selling more and more copies through the holidays, and through January.

 

I'd say look and see how this turns out, but the 20th is in 6 days and you won't be here anymore. Though you have already been replaced by hundreds of new subscribers, so you won't be missed.

 

And Bioware will welcome you back with open arms when you want to come back. See you then.

[Basedgawd]

What determines SWTORs failure...

 

Game has been live for 2 weeks now, almost 4 if you count early access and in the last 2 days....thats 2...days...with 1000s of posts about bugs, not being able to play, game interuptions, server issues, graphic issues...in 2 DAYS...there have been a total of 4, thats FOUR replies by Bioware.

 

4

 

And I do believe that issue is the single most complained about issue over all the forums...complete lack of communcation.

 

Great post, i noticed the same. Very chill demeanor from BW, as if this was expected.