Galactic Command Gearing Roadmap - Coming This Week

[ShinDoRai]

A short calculation:

and what if someone likes to tank/dps/or heal specc.u need a 2nd set

count that in for every tier. only real dps, heal and tank set.

 

1.st maingear spec grind

2.nd the roles u can perform also

3.rd get all from crates and pve/pve drops on top with currencys and RNGEZZUUSSS

4. repeat for twinks twinks

 

play one game only, customer relationship

have I answered your questions and provided good customer service ?

[Kawiki]

Your calcs appear to be correct:

1 Box: 5.00%

2 Box: 9.75% [ 1 - (1-0.05)^2 ]

3 Box: 14.26% [ 1 - (1-0.05)^3 ]

4 Box: 18.55% [ 1 - (1-0.05)^4 ]

5 Box: 22.62% [ 1 - (1-0.05)^5 ]

...

100 Box: 99.41% [ 1 - (1-0.05)^100 ]

...

200 Box: 99.996% [ 1 - (1-0.05)^200 ]

...

300 Box: 99.99998% [ 1 - (1-0.05)^300 ]

 

So yeah, someone with bad luck, even after 100 boxes still has a 0.59% chance of not getting whatever had a 5% drop chance.

 

or

 

For every 100,000 accounts that open 100 CXP crates, 592 accounts will still be left with NOTHING.

 

I think a lot of people get confused by this. Each individual box only has a 5% chance but the probably of it being in 300 random boxes is 99%+. So if you have opened 299 boxes with no luck you don't magically have a 99% chance, you still only have a 5% chance of getting what you want. So in other words past results are no indication of future results.

 

So I am not disagreeing with you but someone is going to use your post and say that they should have 99% chance at GC300 to get something useful

Edited February 1, 2017 by Kawiki

[Sargrith]

Poster: GC and RNG stink get rid of it.

Dev: We are listening. Here you can now us GC and RNG to buy the piece you want, very....very....very.....slowly

Poster:......I said GC and RNG stink get rid of it.....

Dev: We are listening. Here you can earn boxes faster.

Poster.......Let me be more clear....GET RID OF GC AND RNG......

 

 

Are they listening. We shall see.

[DarthDymond]

Common misconception (apparently) - "listening to feedback" does not mean slavishly obeying every whim expressed by a customer. It means taking customer feedback into account as one part of their overall decision-making process.

 

We're consumers, not their bosses. If we don't like the final product they put out, we can vote with our wallets, but paying a subscription doesn't give us the authority to dictate the design decisions.

[ShinDoRai]

what about fixing reflect which is still broke, and merc 3 dcd heals.... one of which reflect all on spec that both dps and heals so they have base heal too...

 

your sir one a price

its called lose to play

it will teach you one lesson

learn to play. not everything in the game is overvoiced

 

why ya shooting moron.....jug to the sniper while shooting at pt.....cos i CAN kill him.....pt full hp again waiting for gcd---

sniper still shooting.....juggy waits and observe the sniper....full green quest gear some crap from lev 20-60.....sniper i get him i kill him .....pt use cds and up to full

....juggy is stressed out...sniper almost down no gcds deffs available all used if used ....pt stuns snip for finisher....jug jumps on pt... ...puts his guard on snip... choke pt....deff cd from pt...now the dance beginns.

[ShinDoRai]

We're consumers, not their bosses. If we don't like the final product they put out, we can vote with our wallets, but paying a subscription doesn't give us the authority to dictate the design decisions.

 

someone ordered a CocaCola and a wookie kinda meal/swtor-mmorpg

[Bristol]

Your calcs appear to be correct:

1 Box: 5.00%

2 Box: 9.75% [ 1 - (1-0.05)^2 ]

3 Box: 14.26% [ 1 - (1-0.05)^3 ]

4 Box: 18.55% [ 1 - (1-0.05)^4 ]

5 Box: 22.62% [ 1 - (1-0.05)^5 ]

...

100 Box: 99.41% [ 1 - (1-0.05)^100 ]

...

200 Box: 99.996% [ 1 - (1-0.05)^200 ]

...

300 Box: 99.99998% [ 1 - (1-0.05)^300 ]

 

So yeah, someone with bad luck, even after 100 boxes still has a 0.59% chance of not getting whatever had a 5% drop chance.

 

or

 

For every 100,000 accounts that open 100 CXP crates, 592 accounts will still be left with NOTHING.

 

I think a lot of people get confused by this. Each individual box only has a 5% chance but the probably of it being in 300 random boxes is 99%+. So if you have opened 299 boxes with no luck you don't magically have a 99% chance, you still only have a 5% chance of getting what you want. So in other words past results are no indication of future results.

 

So I am not disagreeing with you but someone is going to use your post and say that they should have 99% chance at GC300 to get something useful

 

I suppose, kinda, yes...

 

If, throughout the "Process" of opening 299 Command Crates, that item that has consistently had only a 5% chance of dropping but still hasn't dropped, could be considered to have a 99%+ chance of dropping from the 300th command crate even though the 300th command crate itself only has a 5% chance of dropping the item in question.

 

So, if you open 300 Command Crates, there is a 99.99998% chance that an item that only has a 5% chance of dropping from any 1 command crate will drop at least 1x.

 

The point I was trying to make was this though, for every 100,000 subs that get 100 Command Crate Opening Experiences: BioWare's RNG Machine will be pissing off nearly 600 subscribers...

Edited February 1, 2017 by Bristol

[DarthDymond]

Bear in mind that "5%" is just a random number I threw in as an example to illustrate the overall change in probability. Don't want it taking on a life of its own. Edited February 1, 2017 by DarthDymond

[Bristol]

Bear in mind that "5%" is just a random number I threw in as an example to illustrate the overall change in probability. Don't want it taking on a life of its own.

 

Oh no you don't, you clearly said that Tait said that Eric said that Ben said that there is a 5% chance of epic 242 Gear dropping from each crate.

 

Oh dratz...you musta gone back and editted that part out...sly dog you...

[TUXs]

Oh no you don't, you clearly said that Tait said that Eric said that Ben said that there is a 5% chance of epic 242 Gear dropping from each crate.

 

Oh dratz...you musta gone back and editted that part out...sly dog you...

With all the arguing that goes on at times here, this was a much needed "lol" for me

[Bristol]

With all the arguing that goes on at times here, this was a much needed "lol" for me

 

I tried taunting you back in the 2nd-last post on page 1 of this thread, but you never took the bait...

Edited February 1, 2017 by Bristol

[Ottoattack]

I suppose, kinda, yes...

 

If, throughout the "Process" of opening 299 Command Crates, that item that has consistently had only a 5% chance of dropping but still hasn't dropped, could be considered to have a 99%+ chance of dropping from the 300th command crate even though the 300th command crate itself only has a 5% chance of dropping the item in question.

 

So, if you open 300 Command Crates, there is a 99.99998% chance that an item that only has a 5% chance of dropping from any 1 command crate will drop at least 1x.

 

While I think the probability of a tier 1 purp item is around 10% (not 5%), a specific piece chance will be around 1/14 of that, 0.71%.

 

With these odds, after 300 boxes you only have 88.36% chance of obtaining a specific piece. Mind you I am not taking the tier into consideration and different set pieces possibility. It is probably going to take longer for someone to obtain that specific item as a tier 3. See how stupid the system is?

 

Now, if the odds of purp go from 10% to 33.33% (one in three boxes), 96 boxes will offer slightly over 90% chance to obtain a specific piece. Still not great, but if GC is the going to remain the primary gearing mechanism, 1/3 odds + faster CXP rate + supporting other systems can gear someone at tier 1 in a reasonable amount of time. We are still better off with a system that you obtain items through progressive approach, where RNG is minimum.

Edited February 1, 2017 by Ottoattack

[TUXs]

I tried taunting you back in the 2nd-last post on page 1 of this thread, but you never took the bait...

Replied now

[Bristol]

While I think the probability of a tier 1 purp item is around 10% (not 5%), a specific piece chance will be around 1/14 of that, 0.71%.

 

With these odds, after 300 boxes you only have 88.36% chance of obtaining a specific piece. Mind you I am not taking the tier into consideration and different set pieces possibility. It is probably going to take longer for someone to obtain that specific item as a tier 3. See how stupid the system is?

 

Now, if the odds of purp go from 10% to 33.33% (one in three boxes), 96 boxes will offer slightly over 90% chance to obtain a specific piece. Still not great, but if GC is the going to remain the primary gearing mechanism, 1/3 odds + faster CXP rate + supporting other systems can gear someone at tier 1 in a reasonable amount of time. We are still better off with a system that you obtain items through progressive approach, where RNG is minimum.

 

DING, DING, DING, DING, DING...we have a winner Jim...Give this man his prize!

 

If you gonna rely on RNG, run the numbers before implementing the system...

[Ottoattack]

DING, DING, DING, DING, DING...we have a winner Jim...Give this man his prize!

 

If you gonna rely on RNG, run the numbers before implementing the system...

 

Ya man. Sometimes I wonder if the devs fail this badly at doing math, or think the the player base cannot do math. I am not even mathematician or statistician.

[ShinDoRai]

o know i m a grinder . to heart in every game i play

since the 80th

 

so i sorta get it what they try to trigger on gamers in mmos.not that it is obvious at all.

every now and then when a mmo game drop ,on this content ,they intense the drop rate or seasonal to public holidays.

to give customers a great time and give them some cherrys on the new cake.extra free time.

swtor is always on the back way, like a little stubborn child ,which doesnt want to keep up with needs in mmos today/then/befor

Edited February 1, 2017 by ShinDoRai

[MeNaCe-NZ]

Dude chill. I'm not saying they *are* shutting down the game, I am saying that when they eventually DO (which they surely will someday), I would love to have the solo class stories bundled up into a standalone product - because they are great.

 

Don't read more into my comment than was there

 

Sorry I misread it to "I hope they do shut the game down" basically, my apologies.

 

The rest of my post stands though to those that it targets.

[Bristol]

While I think the probability of a tier 1 purp item is around 10% (not 5%), a specific piece chance will be around 1/14 of that, 0.71%.

 

With these odds, after 300 boxes you only have 88.36% chance of obtaining a specific piece. Mind you I am not taking the tier into consideration and different set pieces possibility. It is probably going to take longer for someone to obtain that specific item as a tier 3. See how stupid the system is?

 

Now, if the odds of purp go from 10% to 33.33% (one in three boxes), 96 boxes will offer slightly over 90% chance to obtain a specific piece. Still not great, but if GC is the going to remain the primary gearing mechanism, 1/3 odds + faster CXP rate + supporting other systems can gear someone at tier 1 in a reasonable amount of time. We are still better off with a system that you obtain items through progressive approach, where RNG is minimum.

 

I like your reasoning, lets expand on these assumptions:

1. There is a 10% chance that any Command Crate will drop a Random Purple Gear Piece.
   
2. There is a 100% guarantee that you will never get duplicates.
   
3. It is intended that by Crate 98, a player has a full set of T1 Gear.
   

 

Chance of getting every single piece of Tier 1 gear in 98 box openings: 50.46%* or [ 1 - ( 0.10 / 14 )^98 ]

*Again assuming that at no time do you get doubles of anything.

 

Using the same flawed rules, even with a 70% chance that each box will drop a piece of Purple Gear:

Chance of getting every single piece of Tier 1 gear in 98 box openings: 99.34%** or [ 1 - ( 0.70 / 14 )^98 ]

**Again assuming that at no time do you get doubles of anything.

 

Looking at these numbers, it was never BioWare's intention for anyone to get 14 Purple Gear Drops per Tier.

 

*** EDIT: I think I may have done that wrong... ***

 

Stupid probability math aside: if you expect 14 Purple Gear Drops in 98 Command Levels, 1 absolutely, positively needs to drop every 7 crates regardless of probability and it can never be a duplicate.

 

Oh crap, that only applies for single-discipline players, guh...every 3.5 Command Levels for both possible disciplines ...

 

Oh who am I kidding, this RNG stupidity was never fully thought out...

Edited February 1, 2017 by Bristol

[MeNaCe-NZ]

The forums evolve and devolve with the game.

 

The current swtor game is in a terrible place through both poor design and poor development and thus the forums reflect that. The paying customer disgruntled with the way the game has turned so rapidly because while 4.0 wasn't the amazing content driven experience we wanted. It was metric tons better than the mediocrity we got in 5.0.

 

When the game gets this bad, expect the forums to reflect that in a more negative way than just the general complaints/feedback forums usually get.

 

I get that and of course there is going to be some negativity but there are people out there posting who are being purposefully negative, non constructive and seemingly just for the sake of belittling everything SWToR related.

 

Take threads like this - ripped to shreds over trying to communicate there plan... honestly if I were Eric after that I just wouldn't bother.

 

Wait until you have solid information a week before it happens and say here you go but then that's not good communication at all.

 

Many of us have been crying over GC since 5.0 dropped and then we get threads saying they are looking into plans to fix it and then it's "that's not fast enough" or the same repeated posts over and over ...

 

Not saying everyone with a negative point to make in this thread is posting this way but there are some obvious people with nothing more than their axe to grind.

[MeNaCe-NZ]

That's a fallacy, really. Your odds stay the same for each spin of the virtual roulette wheel no matter how many boxes you've opened or how often you open them. Sure, you get more spins on the wheel (if their changes actually do increase CXP gain in any significant way), but the odds on said wheel remain as terrible as before.

 

Wrong.

 

Your odds on a per spin basis of winning a prize remain the same but every extra spin you get increases your odds of winning a prize overall.

 

By your logic I could have a coin, flip it 100 times and the odds of heads coming up every single time are the same as a 50/50 distribution of heads and tails. This is not true.

[AscendingSky]

Wrong.

 

Your odds on a per spin basis of winning a prize remain the same but every extra spin you get increases your odds of winning a prize overall.

 

By your logic I could have a coin, flip it 100 times and the odds of heads coming up every single time are the same as a 50/50 distribution of heads and tails. This is not true.

 

Please read my comment not only more carefully, but also in context. Someone said if you got boxes twice as fast, that meant your odds doubled. That was the fallacy. Also, while your odds of getting a particular result go up as you spin that virtual wheel more and more, each individual spin of the wheel has the same odds no matter what; it's the aggregate results that change.

Edited February 1, 2017 by AscendingSky

[MeNaCe-NZ]

As long as gearing is based on RNG, people are going to get frustrated, get mad and quit the game. It really is that simple and all you have to do is look around to see it.

 

I gave two possible fixes here http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=911737 . The second is probably the better of the two considering it takes into account PVP and PVE instead of requiring a retooling for PVP on top of changing PVE. GO ahead and hang onto GC and CXP as a method of giving shinies and so on and people will be happy with it and Ben doesn't have to admit he totally screwed up with GC he can show it's still in the game.

 

Remove PVP gearing entirely from the game would be a solution and silence that part of the community.

 

Operation gear ALWAYS had RNG so no reason set bonus gear shouldn't still have RNG - token drops instead of X piece drops though so we can buy the item we want.

 

What we are missing though is crystal gear where I could buy arguably non set bonus tier 2/3 gear with just 10 hours play with my crystals. None of this having to have gone through other tiers first to get a chance at a drop.

 

That's probably the WORST part of the whole system, the having to get to other tiers to get gear where as before I could get that gear myself from the outset. Hell I'd put up with RNG if they did something to fix this.

 

For example have it so tier 1 still have top end drops but with reduced chances. 1 in 100 for a 242 pieces for tiers 1 then 1 in 50 for tier 2. Reduced odds for worst pieces and when you go up a tier the old tier gear is not part of the loot table. That would go so far to fixing this system instead of knowing "Wow I've got 100 hours to go just to get to tier 3 and get the gear drops I was getting on day 1 previously.

[MeNaCe-NZ]

Please read my comment not only more carefully, but also in context. Someone said if you got boxes twice as fast, that meant your odds doubled. That was the fallacy. Also, while your odds of getting a particular result go up as you spin that virtual wheel more and more, each individual spin of the wheel has the same odds no matter what; it's the aggregate results that change.

 

So you were just nit picking then because the odds aren't exactly double? Or are you just trying to save face now?

 

but the odds on said wheel remain as terrible as before.

 

That tells me you were trying to imply the odds of us getting good drops for our time spent under a "1 hour becomes 30 minutes per drop system" weren't improving at all.

 

That after all was and should be the only context here when talking that changes - does it give us better gear faster? Yes it does. Is it fast enough? No it's not. Is the system still crap? Yes it is.

 

How can they fix it? Many ways have been suggested and those are the only constructive posts worth reading imo instead of other people and their non stop "wah wah the system is broke fix it!" posts over and over and over ...

[Sargrith]

Take threads like this - ripped to shreds over trying to communicate there plan... honestly if I were Eric after that I just wouldn't bother.

 

I think thats been tried, it has not been a wild success.

 

Many of us have been crying over GC since 5.0 dropped and then we get threads saying they are looking into plans to fix it and then it's "that's not fast enough" or the same repeated posts over and over ...

 

I think it is fair to make that argument that these changes, or any changes have been too slow in coming and not doing what is really being asked for.

 

Its not like this issue just came up a week ago, a month ago, or even three. There was talk on these boards and in other places about this before it was released. They have been saying they are watching and listening but has that solved the real issue many have with the system, has it even started to address it? No. RNG is the issue many have posted about and yet none of this changes or diminishes RNG. Simply speeding up the rate doesn't change the fact the crates are junk because too many have nothing of value in them. It still is a self defeating method of gearing because every time you get nothing you feel less like doing more, and it spirals down from there. If there was always sometihing of value, some step forward in each crate maybe that would be something. But there isn't and so we have this aggressively negative view of them that gets worse and worse as time goes by all the while we are told they are listening.....that just adds to the frustration. Don't tell me you are listening and then not act to help with the real issue. That is the very height of pouring salt into an open wound.

 

So yes the longer they fail to act the more negative things get. I do agrue they have known the issue for a long time, they have also failed to address it. Why did they put pieces that drop off the final boss in an operation that still require you to open crates? Its not needed or wanted, it doesn't really act as a gate for the most part anyone who gets one of those pieces more then certainly has the tokens for it. So why bother to keep it tied to the crates when all that does is cause dissent? I think if they really wanted to give us a decent change to the system that would appeal to many they would have dropped that, but they didn't; because it seems taking the crates out of the gear equation is an evil just not allowed. Which is the very opposite of what some people want. To gear up without having to touch the crate system at all.

[PlasmaJohn]

Operation gear ALWAYS had RNG so no reason set bonus gear shouldn't still have RNG - token drops instead of X piece drops though so we can buy the item we want.

Er what? The only random drops in Ops were the non-set pieces. The thing people cared about -- set pieces -- were deterministic.

 

Distribution was up to how the raid wanted to handle it. If you cared enough about completing your sets then you'd commit to a team. If you depended on PUG's well that's your gamble.

 

I know gabigool's proposed an LFR difficulty. If that ever sees the light of day then sure I can see the need for a Personal Loot system. SM I'm ambivalent on. HM and NiM really should give control over distribution to the raid team's management.