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Statistical averages on the RNG of getting a full set of gear for a single spec.


Khevar

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Excuse me if I didn't notice it, but are you certain that armor will drop from every box?

 

From Dulfy's recap of it: "Command Crates contain multiple items including Companion Gifts, cosmetic weapons and armor, mounts, pets, and the most powerful gear in the game"

 

Unless there was a post clarifying it? I mean, you may wind up with a Zeltron Aroma Set and a Zakuul taxi. Has there been anything exactly saying what will be in the box?

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Excuse me if I didn't notice it, but are you certain that armor will drop from every box?

 

From Dulfy's recap of it: "Command Crates contain multiple items including Companion Gifts, cosmetic weapons and armor, mounts, pets, and the most powerful gear in the game"

 

Unless there was a post clarifying it? I mean, you may wind up with a Zeltron Aroma Set and a Zakuul taxi. Has there been anything exactly saying what will be in the box?

 

Every other reward crate has a model of seperate silos for separate item types.

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I'm not willing to bet there's a bolster above the last tier of credit available gear. If you can do the content in the credits-available gear, go for it. But I expect that the intermediate tier gear will help you go through all the content faster, so you'll be at GCL cap faster than if you disintegrated it all.

 

I also expect there to be 3 qualities of command crates, so that saving the crates wont' be a viable strategy

 

I am not betting on anything. I am exploring various options and there are some interesting options depending on what will actually be. I will therefore also not bet on your assumptions because they can be wrong and just because it's what you expect doesn't make it so. BWA will have to confirm that.

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I'm not willing to bet there's a bolster above the last tier of credit available gear. If you can do the content in the credits-available gear, go for it. But I expect that the intermediate tier gear will help you go through all the content faster, so you'll be at GCL cap faster than if you disintegrated it all.

 

If your crate quality theory does not hold true, then holding on to the crates until you get 70 would effectively eliminate 70 hours worth of grinding, at which point even opening the crates to disintegrate them is a noob trap, as you are doubling your gear speed to that point by doing this.

 

Unless the crates are determined when received rather than when opened, this system is more complex and a bigger trap than tokens ever were.

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I am not betting on anything. I am exploring various options and there are some interesting options depending on what will actually be. I will therefore also not bet on your assumptions because they can be wrong and just because it's what you expect doesn't make it so. BWA will have to confirm that.

 

Good, you understand where I'm coming from :)

 

However, one of the reasons I'm not betting about bolster above 70 is this

 

2) Bolster will still exist in SM. If someone under level 70 is in an Operation they can still loot gear from the boss as they did before. It is when they hit level 70 that they will begin earning CXP instead towards Command Crates.

 

-eric

 

IIRC, and feel free to correct me, the current SM bolster is effectively to the values of 208 crystal unoptimized gear, and no further.

 

I could be wrong, I've been wrong before.

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If your crate quality theory does not hold true, then holding on to the crates until you get 70 would effectively eliminate 70 hours worth of grinding, at which point even opening the crates to disintegrate them is a noob trap, as you are doubling your gear speed to that point by doing this.

 

Unless the crates are determined when received rather than when opened, this system is more complex and a bigger trap than tokens ever were.

 

This is one of the reasons I expect the crates' levels to be determined at acquisition.

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This variable has been considered.

Without trying to sound snarky, what I meant is that Khevar's simulation hasn't accounted for that, since his simulation assumes the item rating of gear stays the same over the course of the x crate openings. I'm not sure it can be considered without changing the array to treat the first six item slots as essential and unique. Obviously, the discussion in this thread and all the others, independent of Khevar's simulation, around this new game feature has considered that.

It is entirely possible that you won't have your set bonuses complete before you start getting gear boxes of a higher tier of gear.

Right, which is why I said that the first tier 2 box you open upon reaching whatever command rank that corresponds to will only be 100% useful to you if you already have a set bonus.

We have 14 slots for gear. That is a simple fact. Of course for people doing HM content and PvP, particularly ranked, getting the highest tier is of importance. If you are happy with the lower tiers, it doesn't really matter though because you still have 14 slots to fill just the same. So I'm not sure what you are trying to say here.

What I'm trying to say is what Khevar did to try and account for decent crafted gear. Khevar ran the simulation accounting for four of the 14 slots being from crafted gear here:

Filling 10 slots with gear drops (6 set bonus, 4 from crafting) takes an average of 28 crates.

The unlucky 5% would require 47 or more crates.

I think he is assuming two crafted implants, one crafted ear, and one crafted armor since you only need 6 to form Voltron. (I mean the complete 6/6 set bonus of course.)

Currently on live, MK-26 220 left side stuff is very competitive and, in the case of tanks, maybe even better-in-slot compared to the optimized high mitigation gear. Now, while it is a really, really, really big assumption, IF that viability is preserved going into 5.0, and the third-iteration reverse engineered craftable earpieces, implants, and relics are very viable in hard mode content, then, in theory, you could be competitively geared for hard modes (or ranked pvp) with a tier 1 set bonus, mh, oh, and tier 2 craftable left sides.

So, yeah, you might only need to fill 10 slots with Command Crate gear. Maybe less if crafted relics are decent (like they are on live, especially for tanks) and you can use a crafted offhand because you aren't a dual wielder. The problem with his simulation is that it assumes all 14 slots are of equal value, and cannot distinguish between a ten-crate result where 6 crates fill slots that correspond to a set bonus, two weapons, and two relics; from the result where you fill ten slots with the earpiece/implant x 2/relic x 2/mh/oh/ and only 3 armor pieces, which is obviously an incomplete 2/6 set bonus. Both examples total to ten, but they are obviously functionally very different. Therefore, his numbers for the 14 slots are probably closer to the practical player average, though crafted gear may make life more bearable on a case by case basis.

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I'm not willing to bet there's a bolster above the last tier of credit available gear. If you can do the content in the credits-available gear, go for it. But I expect that the intermediate tier gear will help you go through all the content faster, so you'll be at GCL cap faster than if you disintegrated it all.

 

I also expect there to be 3 qualities of command crates, so that saving the crates wont' be a viable strategy

 

I sure hope we saved our 216 armorings then, or maybe even our 192 armorings, if the last tier of credit available gear is below 230. I'm not above swapping out my armorings to something lower just to preserve my set bonus, especially considering pvp, which of course we know VERY LITTLE about for 5.0

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I sure hope we saved our 216 armorings then, or maybe even our 192 armorings, if the last tier of credit available gear is below 230. I'm not above swapping out my armorings to something lower just to preserve my set bonus, especially considering pvp, which of course we know VERY LITTLE about for 5.0

 

Grab a set of PvP 204's :)

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The screenshot in the livestream showed a number next to the crate

 

Pretty sure the gear level is locked to when you get the create, not when you open it.

 

I'll have to check that but thanks for noting that.

 

Edit: I checked on dulfy. She has a screenshot of it there. Looks like they are rated per tier. Back to the drawing board ;)

Edited by Tsillah
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Good, you understand where I'm coming from :)

 

However, one of the reasons I'm not betting about bolster above 70 is this

 

 

 

IIRC, and feel free to correct me, the current SM bolster is effectively to the values of 208 crystal unoptimized gear, and no further.

 

I could be wrong, I've been wrong before.

 

I was under the impression it bolsters to 216 level but I haven't played SM for a long time so I'm not sure.

 

That aside though, I think your interpretation of Eric's statement is incorrect. The below level 70 reference speaks of when you start gaining xp for GC and so I think the bolster statement is not about that. I think bolster will just bolster also for level 70.

 

For your interpretation to be right one of the following things would have to be the case:

 

1) SM ops are not playable at level 70

2) You can only be in the same group if you are level 70 or below level 70 but not mixed.

3) People can mix and bolster suddenly filters on level.

4) SM ops are not scaled to level 70

 

None of these options seem likely to me. So my interpretation of what he said is that bolster is still there and that statement stands by itself.

 

Also if bolster wouldn't exist at 70 and you don't get to collect endgame gear until level 70, becoming level 70 actually is a negative experience. I would expect operations to be scaled to level 70 anyway or do you think operations will stay it their currently difficulty and we just get it easier? I mean, I wouldn't necessarily put it past them but I would find that particularly strange.

Edited by Tsillah
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It's going be a blast to get five gloves for the same class in a row regardless of the RNG! It's going to happen to someone and it's going to be frustrating. Unless of course, they are going to have a system in place to recognize what pieces you miss but what are the chances of that happening? Yep. :o

 

Musco: How about you suggest following system to the developer team:

Acquire X-amount of Command Experience with one character and as a result the Legacy would get Legacy Wide "acquire item" option and you could pick the item with whatever character in your Legacy.

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What occurs to me is that the amount of crates needed on average to get a complete set is more than the amount of levels from tier 1 to tier 2 and from tier 2 to tier 3.

 

This means that as a player you will rarely get a completely set of tier 1 or tier 2 gear.

 

So from an altoholic's point of view, rushing my first character to 70 GC by burning gear on the way, might not be the best approach. An altoholic who plays endgame has a bigger picture and so instead of looking at it as gearing a character, the viewpoint is gearing an account.

 

Of course right now we have an added layer in there because we can only send gear to alts of the same class or mirror class.

 

Still, it seems more beneficial to send gear I can't use to alts who can use it. Like guardians and juggernauts and equip them with whatever tier gear so they can all do harder content more quickly. This way they gain more points per hour played. At least that's the theory.

 

It depends of course on how much burning gear for points actually gives you, but considering the possible issues around set bonuses, sending armourings around is likely to be a better idea.

 

So then I have to wonder. What if I rip mods from gear and send them to an alt...will I still get points for burning the remaining shell? Will it be similar to how it is now with credits, where a piece of gear can be sold for 15k but if you rip mods out it loses part of its value?

 

But I am thinking that the best way to approach this is to at least send armourings around to get set bonuses and perhaps the barrels/hilts/armourings for main and off hand weapons. Those seem to be they key elements.

 

I really wish I knew how crafting ties into the trinkets (ear, implants, relics).

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So then I have to wonder. What if I rip mods from gear and send them to an alt...will I still get points for burning the remaining shell? Will it be similar to how it is now with credits, where a piece of gear can be sold for 15k but if you rip mods out it loses part of its value?

The disintegrate button is tied to the crate opening experience. So, you probably won't be able to rip any mods unless you claim it out of the command stash. And, once you do, the option to disintegrate won't be there any more. You can probably still RE the mods, if you have the right crew skill.

 

1) Keep it in the command stash and disintegrate for CXP

2) Claim it, rip out the mods, put it in your legacy gear, and use it on one or more alts.

3) Claim it, rip out mods, reverse engineer applicable mods, learn schematic, sell the rest to a junk vendor.

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The disintegrate button is tied to the crate opening experience. So, you probably won't be able to rip any mods unless you claim it out of the command stash. And, once you do, the option to disintegrate won't be there any more. You can probably still RE the mods, if you have the right crew skill.

 

1) Keep it in the command stash and disintegrate for CXP

2) Claim it, rip out the mods, put it in your legacy gear, and use it on one or more alts.

3) Claim it, rip out mods, reverse engineer applicable mods, learn schematic, sell the rest to a junk vendor.

 

Is RE still a thing? Eric or one of the three guys said that schematics drop from the gear boxes (gear, mounts, cosmetics and schematics were mentioned). I wonder if that means that reverse engineering is out and you have to get the schematics from random drops as well.

 

But if as you say it's tied to the crate opening then indeed the choice is directly between the xp gain from disintergration and the need for armourings with set bonuses. I reckon that it may be easier for altoholics to use the double armourings to be sent to alts of the same type (class/mirror class) to reduce the RNG factor on collecting set bonuses together.

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I hope it does work as well as you say, but BW and RNG have never been a good mix.

 

Here is an example:

 

There was a particular set of armor I wanted from the Alliance crates just for cosmetic purposes. Now, that theoretically should be easier to get because you focus on the particular crate that drops the gear and you need ONLY 7 pieces (half what will be needed to fully gear a toon). Well, I finally got to the point where I needed only the pants. Eventually I got the pants but in total I opened over 600 crates to get what I needed.

 

So, call me extremely jaded that to get the gear we need may take some people upwards of 400+ command levels. At an hour a crate like they are talking that will be 400 hours of play versus the 4-12 hours (depending on how many players we are gearing), that exists today. With this system, you could potentially have 100 times the grind you have today (ah, the wonders of RNG).

 

I am also going to say this another way. RNG grind is for F2P players and games - not for those where you are charging a subscription. Part of the benefit of paying a sub should be to avoid this extremely annoying F2P grind. But now, BW is going to give us an F2P grind (that you get free in an other MMO) and also charge you for it!

Edited by Wayshuba
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Frankly, I have no time for this RNG nonsense. It's clearly not being designed to improve gear acquisition and is instead an attempt to keep subscribers for a longer period of time. Cynical, as far as I'm concerned.

 

Not sure about this. I have doubts and concerns but with the explanations we've had so far I can fully believe that some people will be fully BiS geared in a matter of 3 weeks tops. It does depend about on how high the weekly cap actually is.

 

I'm not sure if that's much different from now.

 

The down sides I see are some people having bad luck and not getting their gear set complete and where the focus will lie to gain GC levels which may not be group content at all.

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What occurs to me is that the amount of crates needed on average to get a complete set is more than the amount of levels from tier 1 to tier 2 and from tier 2 to tier 3.

 

This means that as a player you will rarely get a completely set of tier 1 or tier 2 gear.

 

So from an altoholic's point of view, rushing my first character to 70 GC by burning gear on the way, might not be the best approach. An altoholic who plays endgame has a bigger picture and so instead of looking at it as gearing a character, the viewpoint is gearing an account.

 

Of course right now we have an added layer in there because we can only send gear to alts of the same class or mirror class.

 

Still, it seems more beneficial to send gear I can't use to alts who can use it. Like guardians and juggernauts and equip them with whatever tier gear so they can all do harder content more quickly. This way they gain more points per hour played. At least that's the theory.

 

It depends of course on how much burning gear for points actually gives you, but considering the possible issues around set bonuses, sending armourings around is likely to be a better idea.

 

So then I have to wonder. What if I rip mods from gear and send them to an alt...will I still get points for burning the remaining shell? Will it be similar to how it is now with credits, where a piece of gear can be sold for 15k but if you rip mods out it loses part of its value?

 

But I am thinking that the best way to approach this is to at least send armourings around to get set bonuses and perhaps the barrels/hilts/armourings for main and off hand weapons. Those seem to be they key elements.

 

I really wish I knew how crafting ties into the trinkets (ear, implants, relics).

 

There's an outstanding question I have as well, and that's "is the command stash accessible to the legacy?" That would mean you don't have to mess around with legacy gear for duplicate armor pieces, and the non-armor gears are still legacy accessible.

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There's an outstanding question I have as well, and that's "is the command stash accessible to the legacy?" That would mean you don't have to mess around with legacy gear for duplicate armor pieces, and the non-armor gears are still legacy accessible.

 

Heh, I think I'd be overjoyed if the command stash works like the CM one but somehow I doubt it....

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I hope it does work as well as you say, but BW and RNG have never been a good mix.

 

Here is an example:

 

There was a particular set of armor I wanted from the Alliance crates just for cosmetic purposes. Now, that theoretically should be easier to get because you focus on the particular crate that drops the gear and you need ONLY 7 pieces (half what will be needed to fully gear a toon). Well, I finally got to the point where I needed only the pants. Eventually I got the pants but in total I opened over 600 crates to get what I needed.

 

So, call me extremely jaded that to get the gear we need may take some people upwards of 400+ command levels. At an hour a crate like they are talking that will be 400 hours of play versus the 4-12 hours (depending on how many players we are gearing), that exists today. With this system, you could potentially have 100 times the grind you have today (ah, the wonders of RNG).

 

I am also going to say this another way. RNG grind is for F2P players and games - not for those where you are charging a subscription. Part of the benefit of paying a sub should be to avoid this extremely annoying F2P grind. But now, BW is going to give us an F2P grind (that you get free in an other MMO) and also charge you for it!

I feel for you man. :(

 

This is the kind of example of why they need a solid alternative. That is, unless they are willing to sacrifice the statistical outliers... and the people who plain get upset at the possibility of being a statistical outlier... and all the rage and discontent resulting from people who become one.

 

It would seem they are ready to do so in the name of simplification. But I'm afraid the rage resulting from it will be simple too. "I've had enough of this and I'm done."

 

 

In general, I would be fine with the gear layout for difficulty of acquisition looking something like this (within the confines of the system they're using):

 

- Base set of max level gear: Easy to acquire

- Max set of gear for use in PvP: Easy to acquire (or bolster used so that it doesn't matter much)

- Max set of gear for use in PvE: Hard to acquire

 

With token systems, this is easy to manage. You just take the max set and make it require more tokens, or tokens from more difficult content. With pure RNG, this becomes harder to manage. Now you're looking at CXP numbers for high GC level. And the instinct would be... ok, we make the high levels take significantly longer to progress though.

 

But then that instinct ends up running antithetical to what you're trying to avoid, which is putting people in RNG hell and disparity, where one guy slogs and gets a full set in a week, and another guy slogs the same amount and needs three months to do it. The less of a gap there is in needed CXP by level, the easier it's going to be for everyone to have max level gear in a month, but the more you alleviate the horrors of RNG. The more of a gap there is in needed CXP by level, the harder it's going to be for everyone to get max level gear, but the effects of bad luck are that exponentially worse.

 

Or, to put it more simply... more and faster rolls means less dealing with RNG hell, but it can also mean the gearing system ends up pointless as everyone gets geared to fast.

 

Which is why a good alternative... some kind of "you've been punished enough, here is your gear" system is so important. It's too bad nobody's ever thought one of those up. Never thought of something like tokens. :p

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Which is why a good alternative... some kind of "you've been punished enough, here is your gear" system is so important. It's too bad nobody's ever thought one of those up. Never thought of something like tokens. :p

 

I think the main reason they are going with rng systems is that they want to be able control gearing speed. With token system any change they do will be visible, with rng system they can ninja nerf probabilities as much as they want. If that's the case then having a system which puts a cap at the number of hours you need to play to gear is very unlikely.

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