DustyDemonNinja Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 request sticky???? Ya right. Eric and the Producer basically glazed over the topic on today's stream. The blatant disregard by the development team at this point is unprofessional and disgusting in my opinion. I sincerely hope to encounter some of you guys at this years GDC so we can chat because this level of professionalism in the game industry is repulsive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MasterSpatula Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Did you not read the descriptions of how the Chance Cubes were going to work? Yes, these results are EXACTLY what you should have expected. They may have hyped the changes to make them sound like they were a good thing, but they didn't actually lie about what they were doing. You got what you were promised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joesixxpack Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 (edited) 368 packs opened ZERO sabers. Working as intended! You handed over your money for a low chance at some pixels so yeah, mission accomplished. There's already some GTN competition so hope is not lost that you'll get to wave a around soon and impress strangers on the internet. Edited February 12, 2016 by Joesixxpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeNaCe-NZ Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 You know.. it's mostly an epeen event... people like to show off... even if it is with something clunky and ugly and virtual. Which is why people are complaining so much about the super rare drop rate (clearly it is on the extreme end of gold rarity scale).. they feel cheated out of their impulse for in-game epeen. Entirely, I'm sure the majority of cartel market sales ( that aren't pure cash to credit goals ) could be classified for that reason. What's more some people seem to like to blame the introduction of those chance cubes as to why they're getting these poor drop rates on these ultra rare items which isn't really true at all. In saying all that I personally like the saber and will probably spend a lot on one. I rarely find items I will lump out credits for ( outside of decos ) and usually just wait for them to drop from the numerous packs I invest in but this item I actually want. Might try a few crates first ( ought with credits ) though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeNaCe-NZ Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Ya right. Eric and the Producer basically glazed over the topic on today's stream. The blatant disregard by the development team at this point is unprofessional and disgusting in my opinion. I sincerely hope to encounter some of you guys at this years GDC so we can chat because this level of professionalism in the game industry is repulsive. So they can promptly ignore you like customer service did heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gothreg Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 You handed over your money for a low chance at some pixels so yeah, mission accomplished. There's already some GTN competition so hope is not lost that you'll get to wave a around soon and impress strangers on the internet. No silly Jawa, its not for others, its for me... I rarely do group content. I just like to collect. and dress my digital doll up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gothreg Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 If you really bought 368 packs.. you (and other CM whales) are validating their choice of drops and drop rates. Want to change the way they do things? Stop buying packs... especially hundreds of the same pack. As for the saber... meh.. not even that attractive when previewed next to a regular saber. I really don't see the appeal. The blade graphic is poor quality and the hilt is way oversized IMO. HAHAH yeah point taken... Those days have passed, as I said I will buy select items from the GTN and forget about my OCD collectors aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LonelyWookiee Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Man, that's rough! I agree though, after that many packs you should have received at least one. Drop rates should be adjusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eriamea Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 (edited) 368 packs for a virtual saber ? EA has eaten your brain or what? There comes a point, regardless of the quality of the packs, where you only have yourself to blame. Regardless of the price, how long did it take to open all this ? Edited February 12, 2016 by Eriamea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joesixxpack Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 No silly Jawa, its not for others, its for me... I rarely do group content. I just like to collect. and dress my digital doll up To each their own. Sounds boring to me but so are the latest content drops; so gimme a shout if you ever want to combine group content with digital doll undressing. I need to expand my ING horizons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DadeLeviathan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 (edited) Sorry, but you're not right - you're just unlucky. I think you misunderstand how drop chance works. Or maybe you don't and you're just angry (justifiably, I might add). A basic rule to remember is that with drop chance, or any win chance, your chance always remains the same. Always. Let's say for example that the item you are looking for has a 0.27% chance of dropping with every single chance cube you activate. Whether you open 1 chance cube, or 10,000 chance cubes, your drop chance remains 0.27% on each chance cube. However, your chance does increase - to an extent - with each subsequent action. But not in the way most people think. For example, just because your chance to get something is 1% doesn't mean that you're guaranteed to get it if you complete the action 100 times. The basic math formula for chance increase is 1 - ((1-x)^y). In this equation, x is your drop chance, and y is the amount of times you are completing the action (In this case, opening chance cubes). Let's say, for example, that a chance cube has a drop rate of 60% (the estimated rate I've seen so far), and the item you are looking for has a drop rate of 0.27%. This gives you a total chance of 0.16% for the item you are looking for. In this case, with 368 packs opened, it gives you a total of a 44.5% chance to get the item you're looking for on at least one of your runs. So in this example, you still have a 55.5% chance of not getting the item you're looking for on any of your runs. Let's take another example. I think the highest possible drop rate you're looking at for the saber in question is 2%. I highly, highly doubt it's any higher. So let's just say for sake of argument that the percentage is 2%. This gives us a total percent chance (with the 60% chance cube drop rate) of 1.2% At 1.2%, with 368 packs, you have a 98.8% chance of getting the item on at least one of your runs, with a small 0.2% chance of not getting the item on any of your runs. You still have a chance of not getting your item. But just to drive my point home, in case you really aren't getting it: Let's say the drop chance for the item is 5%. With a 60% drop rate on cubes, that gives us a total drop chance of 3%. Over the course of 368 crates with a drop chance of 3%, your overall chance of getting your preferred item on at least one of your runs is 99.998%. At 4%, it's 99.99997%. Just to drive my point home, at 10% your overall chance to get the item you want on at least one of your runs is 99.999999999999998%. On any reasonable drop rate, you still have a chance to not get the item you're looking for on any of your runs. You don't reach a 100% chance to get the item you want on at least one of your runs (within 368 runs) until you reach a WHOPPING 19% drop rate. So, sorry... but on any reasonable drop rate your argument is incorrect. Even on a high (but still likely) drop rate, you still have a chance - albeit a small one - to not get the item you want at all. Sorry, but that's just how gambling works. tl;dr: You're wrong, and while I feel for you, you clearly don't understand how drop rate works. Edited February 12, 2016 by DadeLeviathan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KyaniteD Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 With the way they used the lightsaber to advertise the new packs it should be rare, but not that rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DustyDemonNinja Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Sorry, but you're not right - you're just unlucky. tl;dr: You're wrong, and while I feel for you, you clearly don't understand how drop rate works. It has nothing to do with. Even if we aggregated the data that we do have from those that have posted, it would disprove your theory. Based on the overwhelming feedback that is being given alone it is easy to see that your assumptions, are incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DadeLeviathan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It has nothing to do with. Even if we aggregated the data that we do have from those that have posted, it would disprove your theory. Based on the overwhelming feedback that is being given alone it is easy to see that your assumptions, are incorrect. Sorry, but the only way my "theory" is wrong is if the overall drop rate for that specific item is 19%. Sorry, but MATH. Unless you want to start arguing that 1+1=banana, then I'm not wrong. Unless, of course, my math is wrong - but I doubt it since I double checked it quite a few times. Sure, it's possible that bioware put the chance rate at a ridiculously low rate - but it's hard to say that for certain until a LOT of packs have been opened. You can't just look at 1000 crates, and say, "no lightsaber out of these 1000 crates, therefore Bioware screwed up." Percent chance just doesn't work that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nosediggers Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Based on pure luck I suppose. I got it on my 6th crate and ended with 3 monocycles with a pack of 30 crates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gothreg Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 (edited) Sorry, but you're not right - you're just unlucky. ISo, sorry... but on any reasonable drop rate your argument is incorrect. Even on a high (but still likely) drop rate, you still have a chance - albeit a small one - to not get the item you want at all. Sorry, but that's just how gambling works. tl;dr: You're wrong, and while I feel for you, you clearly don't understand how drop rate works. No sir, I am not angry nor am I wrong. The drop rate for the light sabers is not in line with the other gold item drops, as evidenced by the multiple threads and my own experience. Cleary I am not a statistical anomaly. Edited February 12, 2016 by Gothreg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gothreg Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 (edited) Based on pure luck I suppose. I got it on my 6th crate and ended with 3 monocycles with a pack of 30 crates. Yep no argument on the other items, they all dropped as expected, I did not end up with a full set in the first 300, just a couple items missing but the light sabers, as the thread is titled are the issue. Edited February 12, 2016 by Gothreg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pietrastor Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Nothing other to say than sorry that you didn't get the item you hoped for. Hopefully you still got enough good stuff to buy yourself 5 of those sabers from GTN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaiderMid Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 What was people expecting? BW to make a coveted item to drop like candy? There is no money in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlyingUsPoo Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 368 packs.... I don't know whether or not to applaud your or send you the name of a budgeting councilor... They do say the definition of insanity is trying the same thing and expecting a different result, so maybe the budget guy isn't the right fit Still.... Thanks for taking one... make that 368 for the team! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theeko Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Just think about it from all the packs you opened another person could've got it on there first pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DadeLeviathan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 (edited) No sir, I am not angry nor am I wrong. The drop rate for the light sabers is not in line with the other gold item drops, as evidenced by the multiple threads and my own experience. Cleary I am not a statistical anomaly. Except you don't have the statistic to make any sort of claim that Bioware's drop rate is bad. In order to actually make an accurate assessment of whether or not they have correctly placed the drop rate, you would need tens of thousands of packs opened - as well as data on those packs. Making any sort of claim on the first day that their drop rate is incorrect is kind of like complaining to a casino that nobody has won the jackpot they revealed two days ago. You need a much bigger pool of data to make any sort of educated assumption of whether or not their drop rates are fair or not. You didn't get the item you wanted - that sucks. You didn't get the item you wanted out of hundreds of packs - That REALLY sucks. But unfortunately 368 packs, even 1,000 packs, isn't a large enough number group to make any sort of educated assumption about whether or not the drop rates are done "correctly." You're also assuming that because the lightsaber is a gold drop, it should be in line with the drop chance of all other gold items - and that's simply not the case. What the drop chance of an item should be depends entirely on how it's going to affect the economy of the game. To be perfectly honest, it's way too soon in the game to make any judgement on the fairness, or lack thereof, of the drop percent chance. On the argument of drop rate chance "correctness" you could be right, or you could be wrong. But there's simply not enough data to make any sort of argument to any concrete degree. The fact simply remains the same that I haven't seen enough people have this "problem" for it to be mathematically likely for the drop rate to be "bad." Probable and possible, sure, but the there's simply not enough numbers to make a call. Now maybe you've seen thousands of complaints, but I've only seen a few dozen. That's not even remotely enough to try and argue that the drop rate is bad. Edited February 12, 2016 by DadeLeviathan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gothreg Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Except you don't have the statistic to make any sort of claim that Bioware's drop rate is bad. All evidence to the contrary you seem to feel that all items in this pack are weighted equally. I do not, my experience and the experience of many of those posing on this forum as well as the qty. posted on the GTN all fly in the face of your assumption. I think we will need to agree to disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knowmyname Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Good. People like you guys buying multiple hypercrates are driving this short bus to hell. BW listened when your wallets spoke and now we have seen this transition in the game. Look at the sub rewards. CC coming next month for subs. To spend on cartel, getting players hooked on the gamble of the next hot ticket item. I'd rather have content and bugs squashed than garbage Barbie items Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gothreg Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 (edited) Good. People like you guys buying multiple hypercrates are driving this short bus to hell. BW listened when your wallets spoke and now we have seen this transition in the game. Look at the sub rewards. CC coming next month for subs. To spend on cartel, getting players hooked on the gamble of the next hot ticket item. I'd rather have content and bugs squashed than garbage Barbie items Seems you may be right I just jumped off the bus. No doubt they will need to let staff go next month when I do not participate.... Keep in mind one of those staff may be the guy chasing bugs and developing content. Sorry about that Edited February 12, 2016 by Gothreg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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