Jump to content

Quarterly Producer Letter for Q2 2024 ×

Time to get a walker from the Slot Machine


BuriDogshin

Recommended Posts

There are two limits on how fast you can pull the Slot machine lever: 1 GCD per click from your character, aprox (may be affected by Alacrity) and the reset time of the machine, which seems to be about (edit) 2 GCDs.

 

So, if you can click once every 1.5 seconds and have 3 or more machines (so there is always a machine ready to click), here's the odds of getting a Walker mount if you do that continuously for a period of time:

--

  • 1 hour (2,400 pulls): 2.3 %
  • 4 hours (9,600 pulls): 9.1 %
  • 8 hours (19,200 pulls): 17 %
  • 16 hours (38,400 pulls): 31.9 %
  • 24 hours (57,600 pulls): 43.8 %
  • 28 hours (67,200 pulls): 48.9 %
  • 32 hours (76,800 pulls): 53.6 %
  • 72 hours (172,800 pulls): 82.2 %

 

If someone is just macroing a repeated right click on one machine, they should multiply the above times by (edit) two.

Edited by BuriDogshin
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 seconds between clicks.. actually you can probably do it in 2.5 seconds but 3 seconds works fine.

 

So really you only need 2 machines to continuously click

 

To me, the time between clicks seemed to be longer when some wins happened.

But if you are correct, the mouse-macro people need only double the hours given above.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Shouldn't the odds be the same every time?

I was gonna say something similarly but yeah, each pull gives the same odds. Sure the theory goes that the more you do it the more the chance increases that you'll get something ultra rare eventually. But it's perfectly viable to also NEVER get it because it doesn't change the more you try.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yea while it was "working as intended" before it became worthless... I was running between 3 machines in a line just moving left to right spamming my right click when it turned into a hand... it seemed to work out when I hit the third machine it had been ready for about 0.5s or so.. less than the GCD it took to click the last machine..

 

Also.. has anyone confirmed this mount? I'm not going to trust that it's there until I see proof... I feel as though they are saying it's there in order for us to spend more on it...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was gonna say something similarly but yeah, each pull gives the same odds. Sure the theory goes that the more you do it the more the chance increases that you'll get something ultra rare eventually. But it's perfectly viable to also NEVER get it because it doesn't change the more you try.

 

It isn't really a theory, studies have proven that...

 

If you repeat something with low odds often enough, the odds of you never hitting "win" start to approach zero at some point...

 

It is just that humans suck at figuring out how many times you have to play the lotto to turn the odds around in your favor. :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To me, the time between clicks seemed to be longer when some wins happened.

But if you are correct, the mouse-macro people need only double the hours given above.

 

Tested on my Razer Synapse software, you can get it down to 2.5 seconds on a macro, but 3 seconds is a little safer for dealing with lag and hitches. Granted I'm also good for ping too so that could be it, usually run between 25-30 ms.

 

So 3 seconds between clicks is a good esitmate, the timing could be tighter but for some people it could require a slightly longer delay (not much more than a half second more though).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was gonna say something similarly but yeah, each pull gives the same odds. Sure the theory goes that the more you do it the more the chance increases that you'll get something ultra rare eventually. But it's perfectly viable to also NEVER get it because it doesn't change the more you try.

 

The odds each time are the same. For instance, you can't say that because you failed to get it 100,000 times in a row that now you have a much higher chance of getting it the next attempt. That's the gambler's falacy. However, you can use it to say that by throwing 100,000 times you have roughly a 63.2% chance of winning it on one of the 100,000 attempts.

 

It's a matter of perspective and what you're trying to use that number to mean.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.