The Contraband Slot Machine

[AdrianDmitruk]

Ok... I guess I want to respond to this analysis with two points.

 

1) For the CSM to "work as intended" it has to be an actual credit sink. Players shouldn't be blase about throwing money at it until they have unlocked all the stuff... or, more succinctly, only High Rollers Need Apply. The pay-outs of real slot machines are probably not far out of line with what I suggested (makes you want to rethink that Vegas trip). Depending where the One-armed Bandit holds you up, payouts are anywhere from a "generous" 98% and a rather stingy 82%. Let's say SWTOR should be more generous than, say, The Bellagio and call it 95% -when a player brings 1 million creds worth of chips to the table, they should expect to walk away with about 950,000 creds worth of winnings -or, alternatively, just throw away 50K.

 

2) A problem, both player-side, and dev side, is that there's a limited amount of stuff, and it doesn't take much money to get all the stuff. Expanding the prize pool is part of the solution, and another part of it is throttling the speed at which players can win the stuff... to my mind, the "fairest" throttle is a prohibitive ticket price.

 

...in any case, I'm not too interested in pursuing this. This guy has an eye on what matters.

 

Right now I don't even think the CSM is at 82% payout. I'm not even sure it's 50% payout, though I stopped using it after playing only one stack of tokens post nerf because it was patently obvious that it was now useless, and I'd already maxed my rep before the nerf.

 

Obviously before the nerf it was >100% payout and I was not at all surprised when they nerfed it. However I think most of us expected the payout to vaguely resemble the payouts of actual slot machines--which need to pay out small prizes often enough to keep you playing the machine, which that 82-98% payout range does. There is no way that the present CSM keeps anyone wanting to play the machine because it hardly ever pays out anything.

[Darkwords]

This "Bait and Switch" tactic has been and will always be my #1 reason out of the top 10 for eventually saying bye-bye to the swtor universe.

[LordArtemis]

Certs and rep. If they just opened up the drop table to ALL rep types for the vendors, and then upped the cert drop rate the machine would be viable again IMO.

[Muljo_Stpho]

Right now I don't even think the CSM is at 82% payout. I'm not even sure it's 50% payout, though I stopped using it after playing only one stack of tokens post nerf because it was patently obvious that it was now useless, and I'd already maxed my rep before the nerf.

 

Well if we look at the end results that we would theoretically expect to see...

 

(pulling all of these numbers from the spreadsheet that I threw numbers around in when this topic was first active)

 

I'm sure these numbers have been listed before but I'll go through them again. Nerfed rates have 45% loss, 20% token return, 16.999 / 13 / 4.5% chances at reps, 0.2 / 0.15 / 0.1% chances at scraps, 0.05% certs, and 0.001% mount. Factoring out the re-spins, this means that the expectation from a large sample of trials would be that we end up with 56.25% losses, 21.249 / 16.25 / 5.625% reps, 0.25 / 0.188 / 0.125% scraps, 0.063% certs, and 0.001% mounts.

 

So hypothetically from a sample of 100,000 tokens we might expect to see (all numbers rounded from what was calculated) 56,250 losses, 21,249 green rep, 16,250 blue rep, 5,625 purple rep, 250 green scrap, 188 blue scrap, 125 purple scrap, 63 certificates, and 1 mount.

 

The tokens cost 750 credits apiece, and we can sell green rep items for 500, blue rep items for 1000, and purple rep items for 2500. So the initial investment was 75mil and then the sale of the rep items immediately recovers 10.625mil +16.25mil + 14.063mil = 40.937mil. So you're effectively paying the difference, which is 34.063mil, to gain those 627 non-rep prize results. The bulk of the resale value from there in trying to recover your expenses would rely on the GTN prices for certain purple materials and certain stronghold decorations. Giving the machine an exact measure of its final overall payout would depend on what values we can assign to the scrap and certs. But the payout based on just selling the rep items is 40.937 / 75 = 54.58%

 

Let's see, 82%... 82% of 75mil is 61.5mil. For the machines to weigh in at 82% or better payout you'd need to be able to turn your 250 green scrap, 188 blue scrap, 125 purple scrap, and 63 certificates into at least 61.5 - 40.937 = 20.563mil. You're hoping to pull in an average of 32,796 credits per each unit of non-rep prizes sold.

 

Clearly the items that you turn the green scrap into will land far far below that mark, and the items that you turn the blue scrap into may not do much better, so the purple scrap and the certs will need to weigh in well above that mark.

 

Throwing a few numbers out there arbitrarily just to see how this might look, let's pretend that we can expect to sell greens at 1000 a unit, blues at 2500 a unit, purples at 5000 a unit, and certs at 300k a unit. That averages out to 32,289 per unit across those 627 items. Almost there. So we need to sell at unit prices a little bit better than those to make the machine seem to begin to reach a borderline acceptable level.

 

Of course with a breakdown like this there's practically nothing leftover as a reward that's just for your own personal use. All you'd get for your troubles in the end is that reskinned walker mount that you essentially paid 13.5mil (the 18% of the investment that couldn't be recovered) to get.

 

This is why a lot of the suggestions that had been thrown around (and which have been ignored along with all the complaints) tried to add lots of cosmetic prizes / ways to obtain cosmetic prizes and other things that we'd be more inclined to use instead of sell. Such as the idea for prize tickets which would be tradeable at the correct reputation vendor as an alternative purchase option for most of their stock (which is bind on pickup). Remove or de-emphasize (replace with random satchels) the materials drops. Add a special currency that can be saved up for prizes of our choice while we keep spinning away hoping for that lucky spin that wins one of several rare exclusives that are only found on the machine.

[Transcendent]

Certs and rep. If they just opened up the drop table to ALL rep types for the vendors, and then upped the cert drop rate the machine would be viable again IMO.

 

At least one good thing has come out of this thread, looking back on it (considering it's a year old). They managed to take on-board the feedback about crew gathering skills / missions.

 

Complete shame that BioWare has chosen to ignore the issue of the loot table / drop rates on the machine itself, and has silently ignored the community over the issue (this issue is a prime example of how NOT to communicate with the community in an open and transparent manner).

 

Still, by being obstinate about the whole subject they've managed to save me a lot of money they otherwise could have been earning for doing very little. So I guess that's two good things, depending on how it's viewed (not so good for BioWare)

[branmakmuffin]

This "Bait and Switch" tactic has been and will always be my #1 reason out of the top 10 for eventually saying bye-bye to the swtor universe.

Eventually? And when will that be? We will all eventually say "bye-bye to the SWTOR universe."

[Xo-Lara]

At least one good thing has come out of this thread, looking back on it (considering it's a year old). They managed to take on-board the feedback about crew gathering skills / missions.

 

Complete shame that BioWare has chosen to ignore the issue of the loot table / drop rates on the machine itself, and has silently ignored the community over the issue (this issue is a prime example of how NOT to communicate with the community in an open and transparent manner).

 

Still, by being obstinate about the whole subject they've managed to save me a lot of money they otherwise could have been earning for doing very little. So I guess that's two good things, depending on how it's viewed (not so good for BioWare)

 

I think the loss of effort and money spent on machines that would not have been sought if they were released in the current state is worse than the communication issue. It's like the life day tree change. Things should not be quietly changed after the player has already invested in the object. Or if you absolutely must make changes, give players a heads up early enough for them to try to recoup their losses.

 

However, people spent so many credits and cartel coins on getting these things that they would have had to announce the change then wait months to implement it just so people could recoup losses. I hope they look back and learn from this that it is a bad idea to massively change something such that it is worth less or nothing AFTER the player effort has been expended to get the thing.

 

Maybe trade in vendors will be a future solution. If you have another object like the CSM that you don't want after a massive change, you can go to a vendor to trade it in towards another item from the same pack.

[pooks]

When everything seems to line up and you think you have won, you get some crap rep thing instead of a cartel cert. You would assume if it all lines up perfect that you would win something better than crap.

[Stoofa]

I think the loss of effort and money spent on machines that would not have been sought if they were released in the current state is worse than the communication issue. It's like the life day tree change. Things should not be quietly changed after the player has already invested in the object. Or if you absolutely must make changes, give players a heads up early enough for them to try to recoup their losses.

 

 

There is not one person who sought and purchased the slot machine that didn't make their money back on it - saying that I expect loads of people to pop along now and tell me that isn't the case.

With the machine at release you couldn't lose. Everyone got their reputation up to max, the green/blue/purple items sold to recoup the credits spent on the coins to run the machine. The certificates were used to unlock items people really desired - that is worth the money spent on the machine, and those not spent are stock-piled ready for this use.

The Jawa Junk was turned into massive profit - we all know what purple crafting materials sell for.

 

Add-in that the majority of machine owners got them as random drops from the cartel packs - so it was cartel coins they were spending anyway, they just got the machine as a random drop.

I know some people paid credits for them, but they did so knowing full well they could reap the rewards from the machine and as above, I expect the majority of people who bought the machine for credits didn't lose anything during those days the machines remained as they were from release.

[Xo-Lara]

Rep is not bad, but once you have it maxed, the slot machine becomes useless. It's a shame really because it's a more fun diversion than just playing solitaire when I don't feel like really playing a game I have to focus on.

[AlrikFassbauer]

Rep is not bad, but once you have it maxed, the slot machine becomes useless. It's a shame really because it's a more fun diversion than just playing solitaire when I don't feel like really playing a game I have to focus on.

 

That's why I'm only doing it once in a while (a friend of mine allowes me to use her Contraband Slot Machine).

[Xo-Lara]

Yeah, that's the only way I got to use it too. I just narrowly got a chance to use one before the nerf. However, I really do like the mini game. Even though it's got a few preset states, it kinda does feel like you are trying to time it even though you aren't actually. It's cute.

 

I suppose I may as well mention that I also take exception to the drop rates and time sink factors in the Nar Shaddaa Nightlife Event. I liked the rewards enough to try it but honest, that event is too much obvious loss. I feel like I waste my time doing it. I think SWTOR needs to take its cue from real life slots if it continues to use slot machines.

[Transcendent]

There is not one person who sought and purchased the slot machine that didn't make their money back on it - saying that I expect loads of people to pop along now and tell me that isn't the case.

 

If you go back to the beginning of this thread (and others on the issue), you'll see that probably isn't the case. Take for example the players who spent a lot of CC to buy a LOT of packs, just to get the machine. That's a real world money loss on a machine that was altered significantly after they managed to get it, after being told it was working as intended.

 

So there is no way they made their money back on it, I doubt BioWare refunded all of those CC purchases to gamble on gaining a CSM.

 

As to the buying it for credits off the GTN, they were going from 3-5mill iirc, I know, I bought one. I also got two in the Cartel Packs (which I was getting for other stuff at the time). I probably broke even, but some players probably didn't break even.

 

Either way, this isn't about "if" players made credits in game, the point being made in the thread is about how badly the whole CSM debacle was handled. From being told it was "working as intended", to the subsequent nuke of the loot table on the item, and the way the whole situation was poorly communicated. On top of that, it was also the way the community was communicated with AFTER the subsequent "nuke from orbit". That part was the one that has left a very bad taste in players mouths.

 

I know it did with me, it's the primary reason I no longer give BioWare money on top of a subscription to buy anything from the Cartel Market. It makes no difference to me, but that's money they could have been earning if they had communicated with the community better than they had.

[Xo-Lara]

Either way, this isn't about "if" players made credits in game, the point being made in the thread is about how badly the whole CSM debacle was handled. From being told it was "working as intended", to the subsequent nuke of the loot table on the item, and the way the whole situation was poorly communicated. On top of that, it was also the way the community was communicated with AFTER the subsequent "nuke from orbit". That part was the one that has left a very bad taste in players mouths.

 

Yep, this is the underlying issue in a nutshell. All the people who had an issue with it probably fall somewhere within these lines. However, I might also add in the issue of the decoration being nerfed so hard that people still feel like its a waste over a year after the initial fallout. Sometimes time and a little space will help people see that things weren't as bad as they thought but that doesn't seem to be the case here.

[MeNaCe-NZ]

There is not one person who sought and purchased the slot machine that didn't make their money back on it - saying that I expect loads of people to pop along now and tell me that isn't the case.

With the machine at release you couldn't lose. Everyone got their reputation up to max, the green/blue/purple items sold to recoup the credits spent on the coins to run the machine. The certificates were used to unlock items people really desired - that is worth the money spent on the machine, and those not spent are stock-piled ready for this use.

The Jawa Junk was turned into massive profit - we all know what purple crafting materials sell for.

 

Add-in that the majority of machine owners got them as random drops from the cartel packs - so it was cartel coins they were spending anyway, they just got the machine as a random drop.

I know some people paid credits for them, but they did so knowing full well they could reap the rewards from the machine and as above, I expect the majority of people who bought the machine for credits didn't lose anything during those days the machines remained as they were from release.

 

Exactly this. Whilst this price you spend gambling now isn't worth the rewards offered ( per the chance ) if you have max reputation it's still great for getting max reputation.

 

So many people cried about losing their money tree, some even after admitting they had stacks and stack of purple JJ stashed away still felt had done by.

[MeNaCe-NZ]

Rep is not bad, but once you have it maxed, the slot machine becomes useless. It's a shame really because it's a more fun diversion than just playing solitaire when I don't feel like really playing a game I have to focus on.

 

There is another slot machine deco that literally does nothing ... this on is better than that at least.

[Xo-Lara]

Not at all, that one is much cheaper on the GTN, and you won't lose credits on lost spins or items that sell back for less than you spent getting them.

[MeNaCe-NZ]

If you go back to the beginning of this thread (and others on the issue), you'll see that probably isn't the case. Take for example the players who spent a lot of CC to buy a LOT of packs, just to get the machine. That's a real world money loss on a machine that was altered significantly after they managed to get it, after being told it was working as intended.

 

*sigh* this tired argument again. Oh well why not ...

 

They didn't lose any money, they bought packs and got packs.

If they were after a specific item then buying tons of packs to get 1 item is a silly way to go about it, buy it from the GTN instead. That part though is of course my opinion but fact remains they got packs for buying packs.

 

It was said it was working as intended. It said it wasn't bugged and not an exploit but the drop rates would be reviewed ... this is exactly what happened.

 

So there is no way they made their money back on it, I doubt BioWare refunded all of those CC purchases to gamble on gaining a CSM.

 

Name me one thing you make your money back on in this game? Are you selling credits or something?

 

As to the buying it for credits off the GTN, they were going from 3-5mill iirc, I know, I bought one. I also got two in the Cartel Packs (which I was getting for other stuff at the time). I probably broke even, but some players probably didn't break even.

 

@ 3-5 million go review this very thread for the drop rates on the machine pre nerf and how much ( in terms of credit value ) you could make in such a super short time period. Those prices were cheap.

Anyone buying it after the first post in this thread from Eric should have known the drop rate was being reviewed ... it clearly say it's being reviewed and they'll make changes accordingly. Between then and when the nerf was made is more than enough time to make a profit.

 

Either way, this isn't about "if" players made credits in game, the point being made in the thread is about how badly the whole CSM debacle was handled.

 

The communication post nerf was atrocious ( non existant I believe in fact ) - I'll give the issue that.

 

From being told it was "working as intended",

 

It never said that.

[MeNaCe-NZ]

Yep, this is the underlying issue in a nutshell. All the people who had an issue with it probably fall somewhere within these lines. However, I might also add in the issue of the decoration being nerfed so hard that people still feel like its a waste over a year after the initial fallout. Sometimes time and a little space will help people see that things weren't as bad as they thought but that doesn't seem to be the case here.

 

*shrug* I had one drop from a pack not too long ago and made nearly 2 million credits from it ... seems fine to me and still one of the only decorations that actually gives you something tangible.

[MeNaCe-NZ]

Not at all, that one is much cheaper on the GTN, and you won't lose credits on lost spins or items that sell back for less than you spent getting them.

 

Price is irrelevant ... you said it becomes useless but it still has a use, you just don't like it's use is all.

[Xo-Lara]

Price is irrelevant ... you said it becomes useless but it still has a use, you just don't like it's use is all.

 

I'm not going to start quibbling semantics with you. If you need to argue with someone go back to the pack change thread and look for someone. The slot machine's state is too well established for your usual tactics. Though I do feel sorry for whoever bought one from you. I hope they bought one just to say they had one because the return will hurt.

[MeNaCe-NZ]

I'm not going to start quibbling semantics with you.

 

You don't and can't - I'm correcting your blatantly false statements.

 

If you need to argue with someone go back to the pack change thread and look for someone.

 

I believe you stopped posting nonsense posts there so that thread became a tad more sensible.

 

The slot machine's state is too well established for your usual tactics.

 

Too well established for me to state the facts of how well established it's state is?

 

Though I do feel sorry for whoever bought one from you. I hope they bought one just to say they had one because the return will hurt.

 

How much does the return from all your stronghold decorations hurt you then? Last time I checked the majority weren't functional what so ever.

[Xo-Lara]

Wow... you are desperate for Transcendent's and my attention aren't you? Well, at least your antics will keep this thread on the first page for as long as the forum lets me continue to post.

[Banthabreeder]

Wow, shocked to see this old dead horse dug back up.

 

Even I, have given up on this topic long ago, and I was quite vocal about it.

 

The damage was done. It will never be changed. Live with the consequences or quit the game. Nuff said.

[MeNaCe-NZ]

Wow... you are desperate for Transcendent's and my attention aren't you? Well, at least your antics will keep this thread on the first page for as long as the forum lets me continue to post.

 

I just love how you can't but help reply every single time even though you fail to actually reply to any points of contention what so ever.