Heat-Wave Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Open 27 packs of garbage and say that again... 27 packs is about $55. I assure you that 14 years ago I would have been happy to avoid that experience for $55. For ten times that number, or more, it would be easy. Until you've had a gun pointed at you by someone willing to pull the trigger, you don't know what you're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heat-Wave Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Not sure I agree with you. 'Percent' by definition is 'per hundred'. So, if the drop rate is 1%, that literally translates to '1 per hundred'. How exactly do you come to the conclusion that the odds are much higher than 1% of getting 1 of X if you buy 100 packs?! You don't have to agree, but I am correct. This isn't an opinion, this is just a fact of the universe, like the size of the Earth, it really isn't in dispute. You're confusing the odds per pack with the overall odds of getting one of X period. Yes, the odds per pack are 1%, which means the odds are 99% that I won't get it. Open 100 packs and the 99% odds that I won't get X drop a lot. Open 1,000 packs and I'm almost guaranteed to get 1 of X. I "should" get 10 but it could be 5 or it could be 15. Technically it could be 0, but that is very unlikely. Open 1,000,000 packs and the odds of not getting a single X are just about zero. In fact, open 1,000,000 packs and you'll get really close to 10,000 of X. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heat-Wave Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The percentage of drops in the packs for stuff that people want is downright insulting. What an absolute scam. I don't know who is more shameful, the people who waste money on the stupid things or the devs for ripping people off so blatantly. Nonsense, the whole idea is the fun of the dice roll. Don't like it, don't gamble. If everyone was given a Rancor tomorrow, they would no longer be special and few would care. Want a Rancor for sure? Buy one off the GTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tharbison Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 You don't have to agree, but I am correct. This isn't an opinion, this is just a fact of the universe, like the size of the Earth, it really isn't in dispute. You're confusing the odds per pack with the overall odds of getting one of X period. Yes, the odds per pack are 1%, which means the odds are 99% that I won't get it. Open 100 packs and the 99% odds that I won't get X drop a lot. We're both right. 1% means 1%, not 5% or 50%. Yes, it's an average based on probabilities, and there's a chance you might get more, and you might get less! But saying you'd get much more than 1 of x out of a 100 packs when the odds are 1% is just, well, wrong. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DOHboy Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 We're both right. 1% means 1%, not 5% or 50%. Yes, it's an average based on probabilities, and there's a chance you might get more, and you might get less! But saying you'd get much more than 1 of x out of a 100 packs when the odds are 1% is just, well, wrong. Sorry. nobody said anything even approaching that. what we said was opening more packs decreases the odds that you WONT receive it. aka your chances of receiving at least one of those things increases the more packs you open. It is a fundamental law of the universe. The issue with the packs is there are multiple items with the same rarity. Think of it this way, each pack gives you a chance of winning a jackpot, the jackpot will be one of 4 prizes. You need to hit a LOT of jackpots (or get very lucky) to get ALL jackpots. You don't have to play many to hit ANY jackpot but to hit a specific jackpot will take time. the odds of NOT hitting a specific jackpot are pretty low if you have enough "attempts". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tharbison Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 The odds per pack are indeed 1%. The odds of getting 1 of X if you buy 100 packs? Much higher than 1%. Yes DOHBoy, HeatWave did indeed say exactly that. I would argue if the odds are 1%, and you open 100 packs, chances are you would get 1 of X. Heat Wave seems to think the odds go up if you open 100 packs. It's a simple math problem really! What's 1% of 100? There's a link to an online calculator above if someone needs it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DOHboy Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 Yes DOHBoy, HeatWave did indeed say exactly that. I would argue if the odds are 1%, and you open 100 packs, chances are you would get 1 of X. Heat Wave seems to think the odds go up if you open 100 packs. It's a simple math problem really! What's 1% of 100? There's a link to an online calculator above if someone needs it! hey here is a novel Idea! My odds DOUBLE for winning the lottery when I buy two tickets. I have essentially given my self a 100% greater chance of winning with that second ticket. I have almost a 10,000% greater chance when I buy 100 tickets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OddballEasyEight Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 hey here is a novel Idea! My odds DOUBLE for winning the lottery when I buy two tickets. I have essentially given my self a 100% greater chance of winning with that second ticket. I have almost a 10,000% greater chance when I buy 100 tickets. What are my chances if I buy all the tickets printed for that lottery run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TX_Angel Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 (edited) ..................... Edited July 3, 2014 by TX_Angel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNahash Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 (edited) Again with the math? This is more of a recurring event than Bounty Week... Every time a new cartel pack comes, the same math issues... /sigh PS: On a totally unrelated note, I'd like to thank OddballEasyEight for his awesome job with the blaster pistol sounds... and to warn anyone even remotely interested in the WL-29 blaster pistols to reconsider, unless they enjoy the sound of what can only be described as "shots being fired inside a soda can"...awful...just awful... it literally hurts my ears. Edited July 3, 2014 by TheNahash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DOHboy Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 What are my chances if I buy all the tickets printed for that lottery run? oddly enough, its been tried. A person tried to corner the market and purchase every possible combination of tickets, problem was that 1) it took WAY to long to process all of the combinations that they could only get about 80% purchased 2) they DID manage to actually win, took them another 6 months or so to actually FIND the winning ticket to the point that they almost didn't get it turned it, let alone all the other tickets that were potential winners that they didn't even bother to turn in. This was only for a small multimillion dollar prize not the big 500 million lotteries. in the long run I think they barely broke even given what it cost to actually attempt it. Sauce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OddballEasyEight Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 oddly enough, its been tried. A person tried to corner the market and purchase every possible combination of tickets, problem was that 1) it took WAY to long to process all of the combinations that they could only get about 80% purchased 2) they DID manage to actually win, took them another 6 months or so to actually FIND the winning ticket to the point that they almost didn't get it turned it, let alone all the other tickets that were potential winners that they didn't even bother to turn in. This was only for a small multimillion dollar prize not the big 500 million lotteries. in the long run I think they barely broke even given what it cost to actually attempt it. Sauce And that wasn't the point. The point is that if you buy 99% of all the tickets, you have a better chance of winning than if you just buy 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kremsau Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 It improves your odds of winning in the sense that the probability of the n outcomes all being false (assuming independence and identical distributions) is smaller than the probability of just one event being false (this is easy to see by just taking complements). But the probability of each individual one remains the same by independence. And the law of large numbers basically just says the expectation of the "sum" of n outcomes goes to the expectation of each individual outcome with probability 1 as n goes to infinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DOHboy Posted July 3, 2014 Share Posted July 3, 2014 And that wasn't the point. The point is that if you buy 99% of all the tickets, you have a better chance of winning than if you just buy 1. I know, was just pointing out that someone has at one point tried to "win" by buying everything. Even then still had a 20% chance of losing. Its the same argument each time, and same math, some people get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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