after opening 54 packs: NO VARACTYL

[DOHboy]

If you open 50 packs you are more likely to get one than if you open 1 pack . You're getting 50 .1% (or whatever) chances instead of just 1.

 

 

There are a lot of people apparently who do not understand the Gambler's Fallacy, and none of them is me.

 

Each individual pack has the same chance (presumably) to have a varactyl. Opening 50 packs does not increase the chance of getting a varactyl on the 51st pack. To think that it does is an example of the Gambler's Fallacy. And that has nothing to do with what I have been stating over several posts. Opening 50 packs does give you a greater chance of getting a varactyl than opening 1 pack (or 2 or 49 packs). That is not that Gambler's Fallacy. if you don't understand that, there is no way I can explain it better.

 

I am going to nit pick, here, but I think there is a significant difference in how you are using these words.

 

you have the same CHANCE whether you buy 1, or 100. However, opening more gives you more OPPORTUNITIES, but has not impact on the odds.

 

The more pulls on a slot machine do not increase your odds of rolling a jackpot, just gives you more opportunities to do so.

[OwnerJord]

Judging from this thread, I can't wait for the thread about opening 54 packs and no Grassland Varactyl mount.

 

And yes, I went there.

[DOHboy]

Odds of winning the lottery are around 1/170 million. Buying 170million tickets will not guarantee you will win the lottery (note i did not say buy ALL combinations). Buying more of an item would to increase odds only works if there is a fixed number of items (combinations). When you add in the possibility of repeats, all that goes away and you run the risk of never achieving success (think opening 170 million tickets with the EXACT same number).

 

Your odds/chances do not increase with subsequent purchase, it just gives you additional opportunities for a unique outcome.

[DOHboy]

Judging from this thread, I can't wait for the thread about opening 54 packs and no Grassland Varactyl mount.

 

And yes, I went there.

 

pfft 54 would be a START for some, don't see those people starting threads complaining. Although we do post the facts and logic behind the numbers in hope to educate those that do.

[AbsolutGrndZero]

I am going to nit pick, here, but I think there is a significant difference in how you are using these words.

 

you have the same CHANCE whether you buy 1, or 100. However, opening more gives you more OPPORTUNITIES, but has not impact on the odds.

 

The more pulls on a slot machine do not increase your odds of rolling a jackpot, just gives you more opportunities to do so.

 

Obviously we are wrong DOHboy, and he is correct. We should just go hide in the corner and cry.

[Balalakaz]

How dumb should be a man, buying 54 packs LOL

[branmakmuffin]

I am going to nit pick, here, but I think there is a significant difference in how you are using these words.

 

you have the same CHANCE whether you buy 1, or 100. However, opening more gives you more OPPORTUNITIES, but has not impact on the odds.

It does not increase the odds of getting one form any individual pack ,but it does increase the odds of getting one overall.

 

The more pulls on a slot machine do not increase your odds of rolling a jackpot, just gives you more opportunities to do so.

Wrong. Doing 10 pulls gives you better odds overall of winning than doing 1 pull. The problem is that you are focusing on each individual pull, not on the group of 10 pulls. Simply go back to the die example. If I say "You get to roll this die 1 time to get a 1, I get to roll it 3 times to get a 1." Before we start rolling, which one of us is more likely to get a 1? The Gambler's Fallacy would kick in after my second roll of something other than a 1 and thinking the odds of rolling a 1 are better on the third roll. Anyone who does not understand that truly does not understand the Gambler's Fallacy.

Edited September 18, 2013 by branmakmuffin

[DakotaDoc]

I can't remember the last time I managed to get anything of actual value in these packs, so I don't really purchase them any more. Now, I just wait a few days to see whats on the GTN and watch the race as the prices drop.

 

Agreed, no longer purchasing these packs. Risk/Reward is toooooooooooo excessive. I am done with them.

[DOHboy]

It does not increase the odds of getting one form any individual pack ,but it does increase the odds of getting one overall.

 

 

Wrong. Doing 10 pulls gives you better odds overall of winning than doing 1 pull. The problem is that you are focusing on each individual pull, not on the group of 10 pulls. Simply go back to the die example. If I say "You get to roll this die 1 time to get a 1, I get to roll it 3 times to get a 1." Before we start rolling, which one of us is more likely to get a 1? The Gambler's Fallacy would kick in after my second roll of something other than a 1 and thinking the odds of rolling a 1 are better on the third roll. Anyone who does not understand that truly does not understand the Gambler's Fallacy.

 

See that is not correct. You are mixing the use of "odds" "chance" and "opportunity"

 

what you are talking about here is the conditional probability of rolling a 1 given N number of rolls. that is different than independent events. on each roll the chances of rolling a 1 are 1/6 so you both have the same chances or rolling a 1 on any particular roll. You have more opportunities to roll a 1 given you have N number of rolls yes. But your odds of rolling a 1 are the same for each independent event.

 

Now you want to discuss the probability of rolling a 1 at least 1 given n rolls that is a different issue. (1-(5/6)^N))

[branmakmuffin]

See that is not correct. You are mixing the use of "odds" "chance" and "opportunity"

 

what you are talking about here is the conditional probability of rolling a 1 given N number of rolls. that is different than independent events. on each roll the chances of rolling a 1 are 1/6 so you both have the same chances or rolling a 1 on any particular roll. You have more opportunities to roll a 1 given you have N number of rolls yes. But your odds of rolling a 1 are the same for each independent event.

 

Now you want to discuss the probability of rolling a 1 at least 1 given n rolls that is a different issue. (1-(5/6)^N))

I'll brute force it and maybe it will help:

 

We're going to roll 3-sided dice. We're going to try to roll a 1. You get 1 roll to roll a 1. I get to roll twice. Your matrix is 1 - 2 - 3, 3 different possible results . My matrix is

 

1 - 1 , 1 - 2, 1 - 3

2 - 1, 2 - 2, 2 - 3

3 - 1, 3 - 2, 3 - 3

 

9 possible results. Your matrix contains 1 "winning" result out of 3 possibilities; you have a 1-in-3 (3-in-9) chance of rolling a 1. Mine contains 5 "winning" results out of 9 possibilities; I have a 5-in-9 chance of rolling a 1. It can't be explained any more simply. Perhaps you have been tripped up by your own pedantry, but that has been the crux of what I have stated over the course of several posts. The essential point is that some people are completely misunderstanding the Gambler's Fallacy. Perhaps you are not one of them.

Edited September 18, 2013 by branmakmuffin

[DOHboy]

I'll brute force it and maybe it will help:

 

We're going to roll 3-sided dice. We're going to try to roll a 1. You get 1 roll to roll a 1. I get to roll twice. Your matrix is 1 - 2 - 3, 3 different possible results . My matrix is

 

1 - 1 , 1 - 2, 1 - 3

2 - 1, 2 - 2, 2 - 3

3 - 1, 3 - 2, 3 - 3

 

9 possible results. Your matrix contains 1 "winning" result out of 3 possibilities; you have a 1-in-3 (3-in-9) chance of rolling a 1. Mine contains 5 "winning" results out of 9 possibilities; I have a 5-in-9 chance of rolling a 1. It can't be explained any more simply. Perhaps you have been tripped up by your own pedantry, but that has been the crux of what I have stated over the course of several posts. The essential point is that some people are completely misunderstanding the Gambler's Fallacy. Perhaps you are not one of them.

 

Completely agree given the scenario you put forth. However, that is NOT how the packs work. Which is where the problem occurs.

 

Here is how i would explain it. You have 1000 packs, and odds of said item appearing in a pack is 1/1000. so the odds of you NOT getting that item would be (999/1000)^1000 which is right around 35%. So yes, the more independent events undertaken, increases the the potential for success. The odds of said item occurring is 1/1000 the odds that don't find said item, given 1000 packs purchases 35% The odds you get said item with the next pack purchased 1/1000 The odds of NOT finding that item out of the next 1000 packs 35%. The odds that you never find said item out of 2000 packs 13.5%

[Bethmora]

packs are a waste of time and real life money. I just bought it on the GTN for 2.5 mil. earned credits for free in game, thats the best way to get the goods.

[branmakmuffin]

Completely agree given the scenario you put forth. However, that is NOT how the packs work. Which is where the problem occurs.

That is exactly how the packs work. If I open 100 packs, I have a better chance of getting a varactyl than if I open 1 pack or 99 packs, because with each pack, I get another 1 in 1000 (to use your number) chance of getting a varactyl. The only difference between my 3-side die and a pack is one of scope. A die is just another RNG.

[The_Grand_Nagus]

Instead of mocking the OP, you folks should be thanking him. His dollars are paying for the developers to make new content for you to enjoy.

[Eres]

Please, Bioware, can you add woodland varactyl to bouty supply vendor?

I've already opened near 60 packs, or even more, but I stil don't have varactyl.

I hate myself for not buying it from GTN(I just wanted to get a chance of finding it), but now, i'm tired.

So please, add it to BS vendor, pretty plz.

[carlbaratta]

I opened up one simple pack 2 nights ago and got a purple one and a Morlinger Nighthawk which is going for around 5 million creds on GTN! I couldn't believe it. I've opened many many packs (prob not as many as OP) and never ever ever got this lucky. And probably won't again. I'd say sell all the stuff you don't care for OP and buy a Verachtyl (sp) on the GTN during the week when sales are slow. I think you can get them for around 2 mill (on Harbinger anyway)

[Eres]

I'd say sell all the stuff you don't care for OP and buy a Verachtyl (sp) on the GTN during the week when sales are slow. I think you can get them for around 2 mill (on Harbinger anyway)

the trash i get don't worth that much at gtn. Edited November 1, 2013 by Eres

[Noxsabe]

so ive just buyed 2x the 24x hipercrate. and more 6 of the other pac (the simplier one) and havent got any varactyl.

also have 4 pieces of complete 505 sieries armor (2 of them equal).

ive receive so many many many many many many [Rotworm Practice Jersey]

ive also got about 3 or 4 speeders on allthat. but no varactyl.

ok they are randon. but how much low is the chance??

im feeling playing Diablo 3 here...

 

HOW RANDOM AND RARE ARE THESE DROPS????

 

this is why i never buy them packs, i don't like gambling in games with real money, don't get me wrong if i have the creds (in-game creds that is) i might buy a pack off the market! "might" but i will NEVER buy them with real money.

i HATE wen devs put this in there F2P games :/ i guess there alot of rich guys playing the F2P games or alot of kids playing with dad or mom's visa, either-way i know the value of the dollar.

 

Don't get me wrong i know they are a company in the first place and they need to make money to keep the game going BUT that don't mean they have to do it with the packs (if they really like gambling they should have made a casino game and not an MMO)

[Vecte]

I don't understand people who only want the Varactyl. If you are buying so many Hypercrates, why not buy just ONE Hypercrate, let the cooldown drop and list it for 5-6 Mil on the GTN. Once it sells, buy the damn Varactyl for half of that.

[trueKieran]

I feel sorry for you I really do.

 

Well I certainly don't. I'm delighted for the people on his server though, who always wanted some of that other "junk" that will now be available for a cheap price on GTN because of the sheer amount of supply.

 

 

I hope bioware implements a more even chance of items to drop to prevent a flooding of the market of certain items making them worthless.

 

For goodness sake WHY would they do that? Have you ever heard a casino boss saying "I have to raise the chances for the players to win, so I can make less money"? The entire point of a ftp game is:

 

"If you can't get more people to give you money(subscribers), make the people who give you money give you more of it".

It's still a business, they don't make games ftp because they are such nice fellas!

 

 

The strange fact is: we neep people to buy crates, open and sell them on GTN. but when they do so we laugh of them because they are doind a stupid thing.

 

Truer words have never been spoken. Seriously now, I'm glad you're one who can afford it and didn't spend your last dime on it. I'm a long time subscriber and still bought CC for $70 during my game time in addition to the points I get from subscribing, and while most of that went into direct purchases like Outcast armor set or additional cargo space for all chars, I also bought some packs myself in the past, I have 4 Cartel Market Certificates in a cargo hold and almost Newcomer Rank at the Contraband Resale Corportation to always remind me of that. All the very rare items from the cartel packs certainly seem expensive on GTN, but the truth is each and everyone of them is a bargain considered how rare they are in the packs. The reason why they are still "cheap" is simply because in the end the prices in the game are still dictated by supply and demand, not rarity.

 

I myself now belong to the kind of people you describe up there. I have 15 armor sets and and 17 indivitual armor pieces, weapons, vehicles and crystals unlocked. (which is also where a good part of the CC went, since some of the sets cost up to 360 to unlock for all, and they wanted 600 for the skiff!). One of the armor sets(Outlaw), aswell as one of the individual pieces(Dire Eliminator's Chestguard) were direct purchases(and are of course not unlocked for all because of that), two of the individual pieces came from my own packs (Covert Feet and Blue Efficiancy Scanner). Everything else, 14 entire sets + 14 individual pieces were all purchased through the GTN with credits.

Edited November 1, 2013 by trueKieran

[Tamanous]

I just keep thinking about all the cash he could have made simply selling those packs on the GTN (not all at once of course as these gambling addicts and gamers who love to throw their money away do nothing but flood the market with them).

 

He could have bought more than one mount being sold on the GTN that way.

 

Of course spending that much money on packs is far, far more reasonable than putting the money away in savings or investments. o.0

[Guardian_Scott]

Y'know... I usually have bad grammar myself... but between that and the story itself... somebody please, PLEASE take all the money away from this guy.

[Nemmar]

If you're not looking to gamble, dont gamble.

 

I bought 2 packs, i got complete crap items. I learned and didnt buy anymore. I'm just unlucky with those things so im not gonna go around buying loads for a single item cause i know its gonna be very costly. The person i live with, bought one and got the varactyl. Yeah.... luck sucks that way.

[captpickles]

I just bought 3 varactyls and resold them for 2.25 additional mill in net profit. 100% drop rate...