after opening 54 packs: NO VARACTYL

[branmakmuffin]

And many ppl say: "dont be dumb, Buy on GTN"

This dont solve the problem. Because someone had to spend their money, but you just dont care. Nobody cares with each other. We, as costumers, should unite to make the game changes. But no, everyone just want to add his little drop of poison on this forum. Sad.

Change the game? Here's how you change the way packs work: stop spending money on them. If people complain yet keep buying them, what incentive does BWEA have to make any changes?

[Icebergy]

Thank you for supporting the game, OP. I hope Bioware puts your money to good use with new Operations.

[Ocho-Quatro]

so ive just buyed 2x the 24x hipercrate. and more 6 of the other pac (the simplier one) and havent got any varactyl.

also have 4 pieces of complete 505 sieries armor (2 of them equal).

ive receive so many many many many many many [Rotworm Practice Jersey]

ive also got about 3 or 4 speeders on allthat. but no varactyl.

ok they are randon. but how much low is the chance??

im feeling playing Diablo 3 here...

 

HOW RANDOM AND RARE ARE THESE DROPS????

 

I think... that too many people don't understand the concept of "percentage chance"..... I have had this discussion with many people regarding Reverse Engineering...

 

Say you are trying to RE an item, and you have a 20% chance to learn the new schematic by RE'ing something. It doesn't matter if you RE one item, or a hundred items. Each one, individually has the SAME chance to learn the schematic. I assume (without knowing the codes behind the packs) that they operate the same way. Each pack has a % chance to contain various items which each have a % chance to be in the pack. Which means, you have the same chance to get a Varactyl in your first pack, as you do in your 54th. Opening 54 packs doesn't make your odds of getting a Varactyl any better, in just increases the number of occurances by which you can "roll the dice" with the same % chance each time.

[AGSThomas]

people, people. If you are looking for a specific item, buying a pack off the Cartel Market is the worst way to acquire it, statistically speaking. If you want the Varactyl. By a 24 crate, sell them on the GTN and then with the profits buy the Varactyl with those credits.

[branmakmuffin]

Opening 54 packs doesn't make your odds of getting a Varactyl any better, in just increases the number of occurances by which you can "roll the dice" with the same % chance each time.

It certainly does increase the overall chances of getting the varactyl. Being give 54 chances to roll 01 (just to use that as an example) on a 100-sided die is much better than being given 1 chance.

 

That said, as others have pointed out, buying packs is the worst way to assure getting a particular item. Because someone could indeed open 1000 pack and not get the item.

Edited September 16, 2013 by branmakmuffin

[Andryah]

It certainly does increase the overall chances of getting the varactyl. Being give 54 chances to roll 01 (just to use that as an example) on a 100-sided die is much better than being given 1 chance.

 

That said, as others have pointed out, buying packs is the worst way to assure getting a particular item. Because someone could indeed open 1000 pack and not get the item.

 

/Agree.

 

And why does this thread still have legs. Isn't the Varactyl old news now? If you want one, you probably already have one.. since there are several methods to acquire them and there are always at least a dozen for sale on the GTN at any given time for 3M credits +/-

[ikinai]

/Agree.

 

And why does this thread still have legs. Isn't the Varactyl old news now? If you want one, you probably already have one.. since there are several methods to acquire them and there are always at least a dozen for sale on the GTN at any given time for 3M credits +/-

 

I want one, but I don't have one. Probably because I'm lazy and a cheapskate.

[carlbaratta]

At this point just sell everything you don't like and save for a mount on the GTN... sorry you didn't get what you wanted but gambling can be harsh!

[EarnestBunbury]

And why does this thread still have legs.

 

bump ... LOL

[Andryah]

bump ... LOL

 

LOL... I see.

[Arenatah]

RANDOM BOXES ARE RANDOM

 

MORE AT 11

 

(For the record, I opened a hypercrate+a few extra boxes, and did get a veractyl, but only got one piece of the series 505 cybernetic set like I said, random is random)

 

I think... that too many people don't understand the concept of "percentage chance"..... I have had this discussion with many people regarding Reverse Engineering...

 

Say you are trying to RE an item, and you have a 20% chance to learn the new schematic by RE'ing something. It doesn't matter if you RE one item, or a hundred items. Each one, individually has the SAME chance to learn the schematic. I assume (without knowing the codes behind the packs) that they operate the same way. Each pack has a % chance to contain various items which each have a % chance to be in the pack. Which means, you have the same chance to get a Varactyl in your first pack, as you do in your 54th. Opening 54 packs doesn't make your odds of getting a Varactyl any better, in just increases the number of occurances by which you can "roll the dice" with the same % chance each time.

 

^This. This is why I've opened probably $500 worth of TF2 crates (that's $500 of keys, buying either with cash or with refined metal) and haven't gotten a single unusual hat.

"rolling the dice" more certainly gives your more chances to roll the right thing, but it doesn't increase the chances of each individual roll.

Edited September 16, 2013 by Arenatah

[Brewski]

54 packs sold at about 400k a piece would net you over 20 million credits if sold on the GTN instead of opened yourself. That certainly would have guaranteed you the mount you desire better than continuing to gamble.

[Arenatah]

54 packs sold at about 400k a piece would net you over 20 million credits if sold on the GTN instead of opened yourself. That certainly would have guaranteed you the mount you desire better than continuing to gamble.

 

OP has more money than sense, I think.

 

At this point, I gamble box for fun and rep, not because I want the item. Getting it from a box is nice, but I know the odds are stacked against me. For the record, the veractyl was the first time I've gotten a "rare" mount from a gamble box. So if you take into account all the boxes I've opened, well

 

LOOK I DON'T HAVE A GAMBLING PROBLEM I SWEAR

PROBABLY

PLEASE DON'T LOOK AT MY SALTYBET PROFILE

[AbsolutGrndZero]

It certainly does increase the overall chances of getting the varactyl. Being give 54 chances to roll 01 (just to use that as an example) on a 100-sided die is much better than being given 1 chance.

 

No, the chances are the same. Every time. That people think the chance changes is known as the Gambler's Fallacy, or The Monte Carlo Fallacy (after an incident where the roulette wheel landed on black 26 times in a row, people thought it HAD to land on red... and lost millions when it kept landing on black)

 

Gambler's Fallacy

 

This principle was also mentioned in a thread where a guy thought they should change the RE rates because he had to RE 20 items before he finally succeeded. One guy said his current record is 257.

 

So, you are no more likely to get a varactyl in your 54th pack than a roulette wheel is to land on red after it's landed on black 25 times before.

 

Oh and by the way to the person I quoted, the page I linked has an example where it actually uses a (16 sided weirdly) die idea as part of the example. Adding more sides to make it 100 sides doesn't change anything.

Edited September 16, 2013 by AbsolutGrndZero

[ivanhedgehog]

RNG = RNG.

 

Random is actually random, believe it or not. Hoping that 54 or 100 packs will give you a Varactyl is just like people who keep "chasing" a loss at a casino, thinking they have to win eventually.

 

if the RNG worked this poorly in vegas they would be shutting down casinos

[TheRampage]

so ive just buyed 2x the 24x hipercrate. and more 6 of the other pac (the simplier one) and havent got any varactyl.

also have 4 pieces of complete 505 sieries armor (2 of them equal).

ive receive so many many many many many many [Rotworm Practice Jersey]

ive also got about 3 or 4 speeders on allthat. but no varactyl.

ok they are randon. but how much low is the chance??

im feeling playing Diablo 3 here...

 

HOW RANDOM AND RARE ARE THESE DROPS????

 

I got mine after 4 hypercrates. In last pack probably. It is random. You are better off selling packs to somebody for cash (you can make around 10 mil for one hyper), and buy all you want

[branmakmuffin]

No, the chances are the same. Every time. That people think the chance changes is known as the Gambler's Fallacy, or The Monte Carlo Fallacy (after an incident where the roulette wheel landed on black 26 times in a row, people thought it HAD to land on red... and lost millions when it kept landing on black)

You are making a fundamental flaw in your understanding of the Gambler's Fallacy. We are not talking about the odds of getting an 01 on a d100 on any particular single roll. Yes, that is the same for each individual roll no matter how many rolls you get. We are talking about being able to roll an 01 given 54 opportunities to do it. The chances of rolling an 01 given 54 opportunities to do it are better than the chances of rolling an 01 given 1 opportunity (or 2, or 53 opportunities) to do it.

[anesvik]

flip of a coin man...no matter how many times u flip, wont change your odds.

[mmjarec]

I cant beleve you guys troll me and call me a moron when there are guys complaining about stuff like this

[AbsolutGrndZero]

You are making a fundamental flaw in your understanding of the Gambler's Fallacy. We are not talking about the odds of getting an 01 on a d100 on any particular single roll. Yes, that is the same for each individual roll no matter how many rolls you get. We are talking about being able to roll an 01 given 54 opportunities to do it. The chances of rolling an 01 given 54 opportunities to do it are better than the chances of rolling an 01 given 1 opportunity (or 2, or 53 opportunities) to do it.

 

No, I understand it fine, the problem is that you are assuming that the odds of 54 opportunities mean anything at all.

 

Let's say you have a 1% chance to get a varactyl in a pack.

 

Pack 1: You have a 1% chance.

 

Pack 2: You have a 1% chance.

 

Pack 3: You have a 1% chance.

 

...

 

Pack 53: You have a 1% chance

 

Pack 54: You have a 1% chance.

 

Nothing changes that you have a 1% chance every time. Yes, the probability is higher, but who cares? You still have a 1% chance every single time. Which means you are just as likely to get a varactyl your first pack as you are your millionth pack. Granted, odds are you will eventually get a varactyl... but the Gambler's Fallacy is that it matters how many packs you open. Opening 54 packs and getting no varactyl is just very very bad luck. Opening one pack and getting a varactyl is very very good luck. Your chance is 1%, it's always 1%.

 

I have a friend who always rolls 20's all the time... I watch him roll, he's not cheating in any way I can tell. I have another friend who has the opposite luck, he always rolls 1's. Now, the probability if them rolling 1 or 20 is the same every time they roll and the fact that he's gotten 3 natural 20's in a row doesn't mean he's due for a natural 1, nor does it mean the friend who rolls 3 natural 1's is in line for a 20.

 

There is a joke on that Wikipedia page I linked about a guy who buys a house that a plane crashed into because he thinks the odds of another plane crashing there is so small. Who cares? The odds of a plane crashing into any given house is the same whether a plane has crashed into that house 0 times, 1 time, or 10 times.

[branmakmuffin]

No, I understand it fine

Clearly you do not. But that is lost on you.

 

After some though, I decide to have one more go at it.

 

I give you an ordinary 6-side die. I give your possibly hypothetical brother one as well. I say to you "You get 1 roll to roll a 1." I say to your bother "You get 3 rolls to roll a 1." Then I say to a group of gamblers "Who will bet on AbsolutGrndZero rolling a 1 with 1 roll and who will bet on AbsolutGrndZero's possibly hypothetical brother rolling a 1 in 3 rolls?" Whom do you think the gamblers will favor? The odds of you rolling a 1 with 1 try are 1 in 6. The odds of your possibly hypothetical brother rolling a 1 given 3 tries are not 3 in 6, but they are greater than 1 in 6 (I don't remember the formula, but I think maybe the odds are roughly 7 in 24, versus 4 in 24 for your 1-in-6 shot; perhaps a statistician can weigh in with the exact formula and odds).

Edited September 17, 2013 by branmakmuffin

[Scorpiooooo]

I purchased 4 Hypercrates + about 5 individual packs off the GTN to get full rep. I was pretty sure that in that I would get a Veractyl or at least a super rare drop on something else.

 

Nope. Basically everything I got was complete and utter crapola. Yes it sucks, but thats the nature of RNG. I've got a mate who bought a single pack and won a Veractyl.

 

The op should know better than to come ************ on the forums about it - it's a gamble. If you don't get it - buy one off the GTN.

[HelinCarnate]

if the RNG worked this poorly in vegas they would be shutting down casinos

 

Um the RNG works exactly the same way in Vegas and it is the reason the casinos are not shutting down and why they make tons of money. Because people are terrible at figuring out odds and think there are patterns when there are not.

Edited September 17, 2013 by HelinCarnate

[HelinCarnate]

Clearly you do not. But that is lost on you.

 

After some though, I decide to have one more go at it.

 

I give you an ordinary 6-side die. I give your possibly hypothetical brother one as well. I say to you "You get 1 roll to roll a 1." I say to your bother "You get 3 rolls to roll a 1." Then I say to a group of gamblers "Who will bet on AbsolutGrndZero rolling a 1 with 1 roll and who will bet on AbsolutGrndZero's possibly hypothetical brother rolling a 1 in 3 rolls?" Whom do you think the gamblers will favor? The odds of you rolling a 1 with 1 try are 1 in 6. The odds of your possibly hypothetical brother rolling a 1 given 3 tries are not 3 in 6, but they are greater than 1 in 6 (I don't remember the formula, but I think maybe the odds are roughly 7 in 24, versus 4 in 24 for your 1-in-6 shot; perhaps a statistician can weigh in with the exact formula and odds).

 

One way to look at it would be the odds of rolling specific 5 numbers 3 times in a row. That would be the odds of failure. In order to not roll a 1, 3 times in a row you have 5:6 x 3 So your odds of not rolling that 1 would be 125 : 216 which leaves 91 : 216 the odds you will get that 1 in 3 rolls 1 : 2.37 ish so less than half the time you will get it in 3 rolls.

Edited September 17, 2013 by HelinCarnate

[AbsolutGrndZero]

Clearly you do not. But that is lost on you.

 

After some though, I decide to have one more go at it.

 

I give you an ordinary 6-side die. I give your possibly hypothetical brother one as well. I say to you "You get 1 roll to roll a 1." I say to your bother "You get 3 rolls to roll a 1." Then I say to a group of gamblers "Who will bet on AbsolutGrndZero rolling a 1 with 1 roll and who will bet on AbsolutGrndZero's possibly hypothetical brother rolling a 1 in 3 rolls?" Whom do you think the gamblers will favor? The odds of you rolling a 1 with 1 try are 1 in 6. The odds of your possibly hypothetical brother rolling a 1 given 3 tries are not 3 in 6, but they are greater than 1 in 6 (I don't remember the formula, but I think maybe the odds are roughly 7 in 24, versus 4 in 24 for your 1-in-6 shot; perhaps a statistician can weigh in with the exact formula and odds).

 

 

Your problem is you are still making the assumption that the ODDS ON MULTIPLE ROLLS MATTER. They don't. Only look at EACH ROLL.

 

What are the odds of me rolling a 1 on a die 6? 1 in 6.

 

What are the odds of me rolling a 1 on a die 6? 1 in 6.

 

What are the odds of me rolling a 1 on a die 6? 1 in 6.

 

The Gambler's Fallacy is when you think that me having not rolled a 1 my first roll has anything to do with what I roll the 2nd and 3rd time. Yes, the probability that I will roll a 1 in 3 rolls is better, but again that doesn't mean anything. The odds of rolling a 1 ON EACH ROLL will always be the same, 1 in 6.

 

SO, you are just as likely to get a varactyl on your 54th pack as your 1st pack. Yes, your chances are greater when taking ALL packs into account, but you can't do that. Each pack has to be treated as a separate pack because it's completely independent.

 

This is why counting cards actually works. There, as cards are removed from the deck, the probability of getting the cards you want actually does change. But with a 100% random chance that never changes, all probability increases go out the window. Your chance of rolling a 1 on a die 6 is the same regardless of how many times you roll that die 6.

Edited September 17, 2013 by AbsolutGrndZero