Fixing Shadow Tank Spikiness

[THoK-Zeus]

I went ahead and mocked up a full-BiS 72 shadow (since I left mine mid-69->72 transition) and you know what? If you're stacking mitigation to make yourself generally easier to heal (which it seems like we've mostly established you should do), you're topping out around 39/40k HP. That's with buffs, stims, stance, everything. Now let's examine what it takes to get said BiS tank to 37k HP:

 

One 3k hit.

 

A full BiS shadow/sin is probably normally operating within the 33k-38k range (82-95% health), so YES, it is entirely likely that a single unmitigated 37k hit will decimate a shadow/sin who's gearing for helping their healers out.

 

There is no single unmigatated 37 k hit in this game (for 8 man Content apart from terminate which the easiest Boss of the whole nim instance is fireing with a casting time). The strongest single unmigated hit a sin can take is 16K!! (in words sixteen) (when are you starting to listen what i write all the time). Rare combinations of unmigated hits (which will happen about every 500 YEARS for a sin tank atleast for the one we are talking about) are not normal.

 

Edit: Its not mostly established what you do. It depends a lot on your healers and on the specifc boss you go for in nim.

Edited July 25, 2013 by THoK-Zeus

[THoK-Zeus]

Exactly. My theoretical 72 BiS build has a 3342 mitigation budget. The thought that shadows need to be kept at 95% health or better to survive boss encounters is ludicrous, especially with all this mitigation.

 

No they do not to be at 95% all the time. Stop for one single time your lieing and look at combat logs from sin tanks doing nim content fine before you keep on telling wrong things.

Edited July 25, 2013 by THoK-Zeus

[Snarkasms]

Please don't bring insults when I'm merely bringing build facts. You and I have never conversed about this, so it's impossible to "stop my lieing [sic] for once," since I haven't lied to you anywhere. I merely used your own max damage number. What about the log posted a few pages back that took 46k damage over 3 seconds? If both healers are pumping their biggest 10k+ heals in at exactly the right time, he'll survive it - but if even one casts late or mistargets or was caught healing a DPS instead, that's still 36k damage taken - which again means your healers have to be bloody outstanding or you're dead.

 

I don't know why you're beating the 8m NiM horse, since you still, in that case, seem to agree that there's an issue with 16m NiM. Why are you arguing so much over such a trivial distinction?

Edited July 25, 2013 by Snarkasms

[THoK-Zeus]

Please don't bring insults when I'm merely bringing build facts. You and I have never conversed about this, so it's impossible to "stop my lieing [sic] for once," since I haven't lied to you anywhere. I merely used your own max damage number. What about the log posted a few pages back that took 46k damage over 3 seconds? If both healers are pumping their biggest 10k+ heals in at exactly the right time, he'll survive it - but if even one casts late or mistargets or was caught healing a DPS instead, that's still 36k damage taken - which again means your healers have to be bloody outstanding or you're dead.

 

I don't know why you're beating the 8m NiM horse, since you still, in that case, seem to agree that there's an issue with 16m NiM. Why are you arguing so much over such a trivial distinction?

 

Yes i looked (now) at this 46 k parse within 3 seconds. The probabilty for these 3 unmigated attacks is 4,7%. Second I find that parse a bit strange.

Normally Wrist Laser is coming 3-5 sec after a Power Punch (and not 1,5 seconds like on this parses). Also thers another (shielded) power Punch attack (in this 7 sec parse) 1,1 sec before your spike, which is also strange (should be atleast 1,5 seconds and then thers normally atleast a longer break (3s) with attacks after double Power Punch).

I did analyze some more of these nim kephess parses and they all have different (and mostly shorter) attack sequences then what i saw previously on all nim kephess fights i analyzed.

I am now confused . The attack sequences from all this parses are so different to what i analyzed before that I think either one broke kephess or (well i can't think of any possible reason why they are different).

If this parse is the normal truth of the nim kephess fight it would mean that ther's a possible 15 k hit every 1,5 sec. (half of them m/r other half f/t). If that is true nim kephess would have by far the strongest single target damage of all bosses in all nim operation (kel'sara third phase is nothing against this damage). His highest spike would be over 13k higher then thrashers highest spike and on a way higher probability. The average damage a tank would get during this Phase would then be 6-7k on average (unhealable over a longer time for every tank ac).

 

I am argueing because i think 8 man nim is (more or less) amazing for sin tanks (i do 8 man nim with my sin just fine so far) and 16 man nim is not (as spikes are about double as high there, but that is just an assumption).

Edited July 25, 2013 by THoK-Zeus

[MillionsKNives]

I've looked more closely at the log and I'm pretty sure I DID shield 2 of them, and only got 8 hits.

 

 

[21:58:27.378] [@Rychel] [@Rychel] [] [Event {836045448945472}: EnterCombat {836045448945489}] ()
[21:58:27.418] [@Rychel] [@Rychel] [shock {808308550139904}] [Event {836045448945472}: AbilityActivate {836045448945479}] ()
[21:58:27.418] [@Rychel] [@Rychel] [] [spend {836045448945473}: Force {836045448938502}] (25)
[21:58:27.418] [@Rychel] [@Rychel] [Harnessed Darkness {2312741104648192}] [ApplyEffect {836045448945477}: Harnessed Darkness {2312741104648192}] ()
[21:58:27.419] [@Rychel] [@Rychel] [sprint {810670782152704}] [RemoveEffect {836045448945478}: Sprint {810670782152704}] ()
[21:58:27.421] [@Rychel] [@Rychel] [Dark Charge {808231240728576}] [ApplyEffect {836045448945477}: Heal {836045448945500}] (368)
[21:58:27.421] [@Rychel] [Gargantuan Lobel {3061121976107008}:805000933630] [Dark Charge {808231240728576}] [ApplyEffect {836045448945477}: Damage {836045448945501}] (222 internal {836045448940876}) <444>
[21:58:27.843] [@Rychel] [Gargantuan Lobel {3061121976107008}:805000933630] [shock {808308550139904}] [ApplyEffect {836045448945477}: Damage {836045448945501}] (1387 energy {836045448940874}) <3191>
[21:58:28.629] [@Rychel] [@Rychel] [Focused Defense {3244061813112832}] [ApplyEffect {836045448945477}: Focused Defense {3244061813112832}] ()
[21:58:28.631] [@Rychel] [@Rychel] [] [Restore {836045448945476}: Force {836045448938502}] (6)
[21:58:28.631] [@Rychel] [@Rychel] [Dark Ward {975760735076352}] [ApplyEffect {836045448945477}: Dark Bulwark {975760735076621}] ()
[b][21:58:28.853] [Gargantuan Lobel {3061121976107008}:805000933630] [@Rychel] [slippery Slap {2995404681510912}] [ApplyEffect {836045448945477}: Damage {836045448945501}] (5253 kinetic {836045448940873}) <5253>
[21:58:28.854] [Gargantuan Lobel {3061121976107008}:805000933630] [@Rychel] [slippery Slap {2995404681510912}] [ApplyEffect {836045448945477}: Damage {836045448945501}] (5253 kinetic {836045448940873}) <5253>
[21:58:28.854] [Gargantuan Lobel {3061121976107008}:805000933630] [@Rychel] [slippery Slap {2995404681510912}] [ApplyEffect {836045448945477}: Damage {836045448945501}] (2965 kinetic {836045448940873} -shield {836045448945509}) <2965>[/b]
[21:58:29.002] [@Rychel] [@Rychel] [Wither {975687720632320}] [Event {836045448945472}: AbilityActivate {836045448945479}] ()
[21:58:29.002] [@Rychel] [@Rychel] [] [spend {836045448945473}: Force {836045448938502}] (20)
[21:58:29.260] [@Rychel] [Gargantuan Lobel {3061121976107008}:805000933630] [Wither {975687720632320}] [ApplyEffect {836045448945477}: Damage {836045448945501}] (0 -resist {836045448945507}) <1>
[21:58:30.115] [@Rychel] [@Rychel] [] [Restore {836045448945476}: Force {836045448938502}] (6)
[b][21:58:30.506] [Gargantuan Lobel {3061121976107008}:805000933630] [@Rychel] [slippery Slap {2995404681510912}] [ApplyEffect {836045448945477}: Damage {836045448945501}] (5253 kinetic {836045448940873}) <5253>
[21:58:30.507] [Gargantuan Lobel {3061121976107008}:805000933630] [@Rychel] [slippery Slap {2995404681510912}] [ApplyEffect {836045448945477}: Damage {836045448945501}] (5253 kinetic {836045448940873}) <5253>
[21:58:30.507] [Gargantuan Lobel {3061121976107008}:805000933630] [@Rychel] [slippery Slap {2995404681510912}] [ApplyEffect {836045448945477}: Damage {836045448945501}] (2912 kinetic {836045448940873} -shield {836045448945509}) <2912>[/b]
[21:58:30.532] [@Rychel] [@Rychel] [Discharge {808235535695872}] [Event {836045448945472}: AbilityActivate {836045448945479}] ()
[21:58:30.532] [@Rychel] [@Rychel] [] [spend {836045448945473}: Force {836045448938502}] (20)
[21:58:30.533] [@Rychel] [Gargantuan Lobel {3061121976107008}:805000933630] [Discharge {808235535695872}] [Event {836045448945472}: ModifyThreat {836045448945483}] () <2>
[21:58:30.533] [@Rychel] [Gargantuan Lobel {3061121976107008}:805000933630] [Discharge {808235535695872}] [ApplyEffect {836045448945477}: Accuracy Reduced {808235535696173}] ()
[21:58:30.533] [@Rychel] [Gargantuan Lobel {3061121976107008}:805000933630] [Discharge {808235535695872}] [ApplyEffect {836045448945477}: Damage {836045448945501}] (978 internal {836045448940876}) <2936>
[21:58:31.984] [@Rychel] [@Rychel] [Mark of Power {952795544944640}] [RemoveEffect {836045448945478}: Mark of Power {952795544944640}] ()
[21:58:31.984] [@Rychel] [@Rychel] [Mark of Power {952795544944640}] [RemoveEffect {836045448945478}: Hunter's Boon {952795544945169}] ()
[21:58:31.984] [@Rychel] [@Rychel] [Mark of Power {952795544944640}] [RemoveEffect {836045448945478}: Unnatural Might {952795544945173}] ()
[21:58:31.985] [@Rychel] [@Rychel] [Dark Ward {975760735076352}] [RemoveEffect {836045448945478}: Dark Ward {975760735076352}] ()
[21:58:31.985] [@Rychel] [@Rychel] [Mark of Power {952795544944640}] [RemoveEffect {836045448945478}: Coordination {952795544945165}] ()
[21:58:31.985] [@Rychel] [@Rychel] [Harnessed Darkness {2312741104648192}] [RemoveEffect {836045448945478}: Harnessed Darkness {2312741104648192}] ()
[21:58:31.986] [@Rychel] [@Rychel] [Focused Defense {3244061813112832}] [RemoveEffect {836045448945478}: Focused Defense {3244061813112832}] ()
[21:58:31.986] [@Rychel] [@Rychel] [Dark Ward {975760735076352}] [RemoveEffect {836045448945478}: Dark Bulwark {975760735076621}] ()
[21:58:31.986] [@Rychel] [@Rychel] [sprint {810670782152704}] [ApplyEffect {836045448945477}: Sprint {810670782152704}] ()
[b][21:58:32.074] [Gargantuan Lobel {3061121976107008}:805000933630] [@Rychel] [slippery Slap {2995404681510912}] [ApplyEffect {836045448945477}: Damage {836045448945501}] (5253 kinetic {836045448940873}) <5253>
[21:58:32.074] [Gargantuan Lobel {3061121976107008}:805000933630] [@Rychel] [slippery Slap {2995404681510912}] [ApplyEffect {836045448945477}: Damage {836045448945501}] (5253 kinetic {836045448940873}) <5253>
[21:58:32.074] [Gargantuan Lobel {3061121976107008}:805000933630] [@Rychel] [] [Event {836045448945472}: Death {836045448945493}] ()[/b]

 

 

And it's important when saying things like "there's only X probability of this happening" you have to consider that you're not just rolling that attack once a fight, you're getting hit the whole time. In a given fight you may roll that attack sequence 20 times, and if it has a 5% chance of happening then it's pretty likely that you'll encounter it. A flat % chance isn't helpful if not taken in context.

 

The very fact that shadows can take so much damage on a bad roll is the problem that those in this thread have been trying to draw attention to. Having a tank RNG to death beyond their control is a problem, no matter the likelyhood. Plus, all these "unlikelyhoods" seem to be adding up.

Edited July 25, 2013 by MillionsKNives

[THoK-Zeus]

I've looked more closely at the log and I'm pretty sure I DID shield 2 of them, and only got 8 hits.

 

And it's important when saying things like "there's only X probability of this happening" you have to consider that you're not just rolling that attack once a fight, you're getting hit the whole time. In a given fight you may roll that attack sequence 20 times, and if it has a 5% chance of happening then it's pretty likely that you'll encounter it. A flat % chance isn't helpful if not taken in context.

 

The very fact that shadows can take so much damage on a bad roll is the problem that those in this thread have been trying to draw attention to. Having a tank RNG to death beyond their control is a problem, no matter the likelyhood. Plus, all these "unlikelyhoods" seem to be adding up.

 

First part is Kephess parse (as should be clear when i write about power Punch/laser wrist, but not for everyone it seems )

If thers a 5% chance of happening and we have that chances 20 times, the overall chance of such a spike happening is 64,2% (1-(1-0,05)^20), didn't bother to write that as i thought thats clear. I think i always wrote that i consider spikes with a 5% chance other then spikes with a 0,004% chance.

 

The thing i was wondering about, is that you get so much dmg (a possible 15k hit every 1,5 seconds constantly), that the average damage out of your combatlogs would be (aswell for pt and juggs) 6-7k dps (which is not healable at all no matter whether you are assassin/pt/jugg).

I still don't know why you got so much dmg:

The average damage out of one power punch/Laser Wrist you get is normal (for a sin tank). But: Kephess seemed to hit you at a much faster pace then he did any other tank i have logs so far. All your logs make thrasher nim look like a walk in the park tank damage wise.

 

Edit: Ahh Moment you are the one with the Miniboss log, sry:

I did take a closer look at my combat logs for this miniboss and i saw that i was under ballistic shield the whole time (did miss that, so i thougt unmigated dmg is 4k ).

 

So an unmigated attack is hitting you instead for 5,1 k yeah. That makes the most unlikely spike a 45k hit within 4,5 seconds.

Your spike (2 shielded out of 9) has a 0,7% chance to happen (0,33^6)*(0,67^2)*(9!/7!*2!). Last time when i tanked him he attacked me 9 times so the overall chance for such a spike per fight is 2,7% (1-(1-0,007)^9).

Still this is a miniboss who takes 40 seconds to kill, so nothing one should rly worry about (take a sniper with you ).

Edited July 25, 2013 by THoK-Zeus

[MillionsKNives]

If thers a 5% chance of happening and we have that chances 20 times, the overall chance of such a spike happening is 64,2% (1-(1-0,05)^20), didn't bother to write that as i thought thats clear. I think i always wrote that i consider spikes with a 5% chance other then spikes with a 0,004% chance. (For the other spike with 0,004% its 1-(1-0,00004)^20=0,0008).

 

Yes i wrote that you did shield one of the attacks before the spike.

 

The thing i was wondering about, is that you get so much dmg (a possible 15k hit every 1,5 seconds constantly), that the average damage out of your combatlogs would be (aswell for pt and juggs) 6-7k dps (which is not healable at all no matter whether you are assassin/pt/jugg).

I still don't know why you got so much dmg:

The average damage out of one power punch/Laser Wrist you get is normal (for a sin tank). But: Kephess seemed to hit you at a much faster pace then he did any other tank i have logs so far. All your logs make thrasher nim look like a walk in the park tank damage wise.

 

To be clear, I just posted my entire portion of the frog mini-boss above which I referenced a couple pages ago. I have not posted any other parses of myself. I believe you are confusing me with someone else.

[Jimvinny]

I am argueing because i think 8 man nim is (more or less) fine for sin tanks (i do 8 man nim with my sin just fine so far) and 16 man nim is not (as spikes are about double as high there, but that is just an assumption).

 

"(more or less) fine" *** does that even mean? Just because you have outstanding healers that are constantly overhealing you to keep you at 95%, doesn't mean shadows/sins are fine. And if you're willing to admit that in 16's, they're not fine, then why are you even arguing? 16's are part of this game too, you know. Just because you don't participate, doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

[Jimvinny]

To be clear, I just posted my entire portion of the frog mini-boss above which I referenced a couple pages ago. I have not posted any other parses of myself. I believe you are confusing me with someone else.

 

Confused is right.

[Leafy_Bug]

I can see the tagline now in the character creation screen :' Thanks for choosing a Shadow, as a tank, you will be just fine in 8 man NiM. If you want do try 16m NiM, please roll a guardian alt now and don't end up f-ed like the thousands of shadows who spent 1 year and millions of credits in their toons'

[THoK-Zeus]

"(more or less) fine" *** does that even mean? Just because you have outstanding healers that are constantly overhealing you to keep you at 95%, doesn't mean shadows/sins are fine. And if you're willing to admit that in 16's, they're not fine, then why are you even arguing? 16's are part of this game too, you know. Just because you don't participate, doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

 

Actually there should stand amazing instead of fine. My healers are not constantly overhealing me, nor am i always above 95% health nor is there any requirement at all to be always above 95%. (Amazing healers are not constantly overhealing...).

I am argueing that people are saying that sins are not viable for 8 man nim content (which is plain wrong...). I am not saying anywhere that sins are fine for 16 man content (as i stated perhaps 15 times now)

 

@knives: i corrected my post above, you can see the math. I was just confused and thinking about this abnormal kephess parse, so i mixxed that up.

Edited July 25, 2013 by THoK-Zeus

[MillionsKNives]

Edit: Ahh Moment you are the one with the Miniboss log, sry:

I did take a closer look at my combat logs for this miniboss and i saw that i was under ballistic shield the whole time (did miss that, so i thougt unmigated dmg is 4k ).

 

So an unmigated attack is hitting you instead for 5,1 k yeah. That makes the most unlikely spike a 45k hit within 4,5 seconds.

Your spike (2 shielded out of 9) has a 0,7% chance to happen (0,33^6)*(0,67^2)*(9!/7!*2!). Last time when i tanked him he attacked me 9 times so the overall chance for such a spike per fight is 2,7% (1-(1-0,007)^9).

Still this is a miniboss who takes 40 seconds to kill, so nothing one should rly worry about (take a sniper with you ).

 

I was hit 8 times, I was dead before the 9th. My probability math is a bit hazy, but I don't believe that your chance takes into account all of the other permutations of those hits which would have still killed me, given the 47k possible damage (9 unmitigated attacks) in 3.2s. That makes me worry more than your number suggests. And this being a mini-boss, I should have to worry even less about being instantly killed, no?

Edited July 25, 2013 by MillionsKNives

[Ancaglon]

Yes i looked (now) at this 46 k parse within 3 seconds. The probabilty for these 3 unmigated attacks is 4,7%.

So now you've gone from one in "500 YEARS" to about once every other fight. Is it time for you to "stop lieing", to yourself as well as everyone else?

 

PS: "Exception that proves the rule" doesn't mean what you seem to think it means.

Edited July 25, 2013 by Ancaglon

[THoK-Zeus]

I was hit 8 times, I was dead before the 9th. My probability math is a bit hazy, but I don't believe that chance takes into account all of the other permutations of those hits which would have still killed me, given the 47k possible damage (9 unmitigated attacks) in 3.2s. That makes me worry more than your number suggests. And this being a mini-boss, I should have to worry even less about being instantly killed, no?

 

This mini-Boss actually hits harder then any normal nim boss i have seen so far (15k unmigated m/r attacks every 1,5 s is more then nim thrasher does for example, it's almost on the same level like this kephess parse ..). But hes lasting for a very short duration so you can use alot of defensive cooldowns, etc...

 

Math is: you take the probabilty of a specific Event (e.g. 2 migated attacks 6 unmigated attacks) and permutate that over the number of attacks, so for this case ist (0,33^6)*(0,67^2)*(8!/6!*2!)=1,7% Chance.

For the chance for the whole boss fight i had to look closer into the combat logs. I saw 2 attacks before the first bounce and then 6 attacks after the bounces (may be a bug as you stated you killed by 3 in the very beginning so i count 3 before the first bounce. That means via permutation 1+ (6-2)!/3!=5 possibilities for our 3 attack spike, (so my first calculation for the boss fight was a bit wrong)

That's just the chance for a specific event.

I will give it more detail (all possible events for everything):

-First awall we start with the chance that you get your ~45k hit with 9 unmigated attacks in a row:

(0,33)^9=0,004% over the whole boss a 0,02% Chance (1-(1-0,00004)^5)

-Then we look at the chance of getting 8 unmigated attacks (~40k hit over 3 attacks):

• 8 out of 9 unmigated attacks: (0,33^8)*0,67*(9!/8!)=0,08%

• 8 unmigated attacks in a row: (0,33^8)=0,01% minus 8 unmigated attacks in a row with a shielded attack afterwards (we did alrdy count that in with the calculation one line above) -(0,33^8)*0,67=0,009% alltogether 0,08% (over the full boss duration of 9 attacks: 0,40%)

-Then lets look at 7 unmigated attacks (~35k hit):

• 7 unmigated attacks in a row: (0,33)^7=0,04%

• 7 unmigated attacks over 8 attacks: (0,33^7)*0,67*(8!/7!)=0,22%

• 7 unmigated attacks over 9 attacks: (0,33^7)*(0,67^2)*(9!/7!*2!)=0,69%

Then we counted 7 attacks with (1 and 2 migated attacks) again 2/3 times so all that above minus:

-(0,33^7)*0,67*0,67-(0,33^7)*0,67*(8!/7!)*0,67=-0,171% so alltogether we have then 0,78% chance (over the full boss duration: 3,8%)

-Then lets look at 6 unmigated attacks (~30k over 3 attacks):

• 6 unmigated attacks in a row: (0,33)^6=0,13%

• 6 unmigated attacks over 7 attacks: (0,33^6)*0,67*7=0,60%

• 6 unmigated attacks over 8 attacks: (0,33^6)*(0,67^2)*28= 1,6%

• 6 unmigated attacks over 9 attacks: (0,33^6)*(0,67^3)*84= 3,3%

Then we have to get rid of all the double counted probabilitys again:

-(0,33^6)*0,67^3-(0,33^6)*(0,67^3)*7-(0,33^6)*(0,67^3)*21=-1,12%, so altogether we have now a 4,51% Chance (over the full boss duration a 20,7% chance of happening)

So your 6 out of 9 unmigated attacks have a fairly high chance of happening (more then every fifth pull).

 

Note that 15 k dmg per gcd is way more then every nim boss, will do and the fight lasts for 40 seconds (and you are not rly hit by the boss for the whole time).

 

Edit:

So now you've gone from one in "500 YEARS" to about once every other fight. Is it time for you to "stop lieing", to yourself as well as everyone else?

 

PS: "Exception that proves the rule" doesn't mean what you seem to think it means.

 

Learn reading plz, and for god sake stop LIEING by comparing mathematics for the kephess fight with mathematics for the miniboss fight!

Edited July 25, 2013 by THoK-Zeus

[MillionsKNives]

Learn reading plz, and for god sake stop LIEING by comparing mathematics for the kephess fight with mathematics for the miniboss fight!

 

Mixing math or not, the numbers do seem to have come out nearly the same.

[THoK-Zeus]

Mixing math or not, the numbers do seem to have come out nearly the same.

 

Not at all The difference mainly is that kephess is doing his 15k hits with 1 single strike. The frog is doing 3 hits at the same time with 5k dmg each (so hes way less spiky ).

[dipstik]

how do u have a 67% chance of shielding an attack? unless you are using the probability of a defense or shield and taking damage weights into account or something.

 

i assume you are using p^n * (1-p)^N-n * N_choose_n

Edited July 25, 2013 by dipstik

[THoK-Zeus]

how do u have a 67% chance of shielding an attack? unless you are using the probability of a defense or shield and taking damage weights into account or something.

 

i assume you are using p^n * (1-p)^N-n * N_choose_n

 

Yes i sometimes used shielding instead of migated attack (will change that). As these are large spikes examples were just 0-3 attacks are migated, I did not rly take into account whether a migated attack is shielded or defended, as the unmigated attacks make almost the whole dmg out of these Spikes. So i didn't bother doing 2 additional pages of calculations and kept it simple (Therefore there are just roughly standing dmg values of the spikes standing above their). My whole calculation was just about the probabilty of the Spikes.

I just took for calculations , that an m/r attack has a 1/3 chance to be unmigated.

 

Actually i was just typing these few standard formulas in my calculator. So far i did not use a generic formula (If i do more calculations perhaps i will do.), It was just thinking about probabilty (of a specific spike) times possibilties you can permutate it.

The problem with a generic formula for specific spikes is, that you have a different probabilty for some of the permutations (i did try to prevent that by subtracing). I will either have to change the way i calculate probability so far, or the questions i can find a solution for have to change, when i want to make the calculations more simple.

(For example the question: How high is the probability that 6 out of the 9 attacks are unmigated attacks? is way easier to solve then: Fow often do i get a spike with 6 unmigated attacks? although the questions seem to look like they're the same )

Edited July 26, 2013 by THoK-Zeus

[MythicalKnight]

Not at all The difference mainly is that kephess is doing his 15k hits with 1 single strike. The frog is doing 3 hits at the same time with 5k dmg each (so hes way less spiky ).

 

3 times 5 equals 15..... soooo...... yeah....

[THoK-Zeus]

3 times 5 equals 15..... soooo...... yeah....

 

The average damage out of both attacks should be the same, but we are talking all the time about spike damage (about hits that deal a lot of damage then an average hit sequence of the boss e.g a row of hits is unmigated). The probabiltiy that 6 out of 9 hits in a row are unmigated is way lower then the probability that 2 out of 3 hits are unmigated. For 6 out of 9 hits we had a 4,51% Probability (see my last post). For 2 out of 3 unmigated hits in an attacking sequence of 3 attacks (same damage aswell about a 30k spike) we have:

(0,33^2)*(0,67)*(3!/2!)+(0,33^2)-(0,33^2)*0,67=21,9%+10,89%-7,29%=25,5%

 

Therefore when the bosses attack is split into like 3 pieces, the probabiltiy of spikes is getting lower.

[Jimvinny]

Actually there should stand amazing instead of fine. My healers are not constantly overhealing me, nor am i always above 95% health nor is there any requirement at all to be always above 95%. (Amazing healers are not constantly overhealing...).

I am argueing that people are saying that sins are not viable for 8 man nim content (which is plain wrong...). I am not saying anywhere that sins are fine for 16 man content (as i stated perhaps 15 times now)

 

@knives: i corrected my post above, you can see the math. I was just confused and thinking about this abnormal kephess parse, so i mixxed that up.

 

Fuyri from Suckafish got one-shotted twice in one fight against the operations chief. I don't give a flying f*** what you think, if there is ANY single attack in the game that will one-shot a tank from full health if it goes unmitigated, then something is broken. Especially when it's only broken for one tank class, specifically shadows/sins, because that attack won't one-shot a VG or a guardian.

 

And screw the differentiation between 8m and 16m. This is ONE game we're talking about, not two. If you admit that it's broken for 16m, it's BROKEN.

Edited July 26, 2013 by Jimvinny

[Ancaglon]

Learn reading plz, and for god sake stop LIEING by comparing mathematics for the kephess fight with mathematics for the miniboss fight!

The irony in this sentence alone... probably flies 20,000 feet above your head. So, in language you can understand, I'll just say, "you first".

[THoK-Zeus]

The irony in this sentence alone... probably flies 20,000 feet above your head. So, in language you can understand, I'll just say, "you first".

 

He was stating that i said that the probabilty of the 500 years spike is in fact happening about every fight. I never said sth like that nor is that acutally in any possible way true. He was taking my statement about the kephess fight (kephess and frog Mini Boss is not the same boss.) and transfered it to the frog boss fight (which is not working!) and then accused me of lieing (In his mind i said that spikes of the kephess fight are the same for the frog fight, which i did not say)

 

Fuyri from Suckafish got one-shotted twice in one fight against the operations chief. I don't give a flying f*** what you think, if there is ANY single attack in the game that will one-shot a tank from full health if it goes unmitigated, then something is broken. Especially when it's only broken for one tank class, specifically shadows/sins, because that attack won't one-shot a VG or a guardian.

 

And screw the differentiation between 8m and 16m. This is ONE game we're talking about, not two. If you admit that it's broken for 16m, it's BROKEN.

 

If i am not activating a defensive cooldown for terminate, yeah i am one-shot.... If you find terminate an unfair mechanic, ok. Operations Chief is the easiest boss out of the whole sv nim encounter, so i my opinion he can have sth unfair like this (kbn will disagrees here i am sure )

I did by the way write that i see terminate as an exception (in some of my posts) but i can't write that under every post.

When people are specifically claiming that ist broken for 8 man content, i will correct them. And i am not doing anything just because you yell at me.

Edited July 26, 2013 by THoK-Zeus

[Jimvinny]

If i am not activating a defensive cooldown for terminate, yeah i am one-shot.... If you find terminate an unfair mechanic, ok. Operations Chief is the easiest boss out of the whole sv nim encounter, so i my opinion he can have sth unfair like this (kbn will disagrees here i am sure )

I did by the way write that i see terminate as an exception (in some of my posts) but i can't write that under every post.

When people are specifically claiming that ist broken for 8 man content, i will correct them. And i am not doing anything just because you yell at me.

 

But that's the point. A shadow/sin cannot effectively single tank the ops chief because they will not have a CD for every terminate. If they don't have a CD, then they're dead. This is broken. (Italics so you stop getting all butthurt about being yelled at). I don't care if he's the easiest boss, If he can't be single tanked by one tank class, but is no problem for the other two, that, is by definition, a balance problem. As for your "exception", there can't be an "exception" to "shadows are fine". Either they are, or they aren't. One-shots mean they aren't.

 

But, by all means, you stay up on that soapbox, keep spewing your gospel. I won't be bothering to listen to it any further.

Edited July 26, 2013 by Jimvinny

[LoRdTyRANTz]

I don't care if he's the easiest boss, If he can't be single tanked by one tank class, but is no problem for the other two, that, is by definition, a balance problem.

 

So there is no bosses you can think of where the shadow/sin tanks have an advantage?