Expertise: Max or 1200 - Debate has ended

[SOULCASTER]

This thread's experiment conclusively states that :

 

A max expertise target will do (marginally) more damage to, and take (marginally) less damage from a 1214 expertise target, in comparison to the damage that 1214 expertise target does to, and the damage received from, the max expertise target, given the same stats.

 

This is the ONLY indisputable information that the data from this experiment shows. Anything else about character sheets, or whatever you want to say is purely speculation.

 

However, it is still believed that a 1214 expertise target will do (marginally) more damage to a diffrent 1214 expertise target, than a max expertise person would do to that different 1214 expertise target. (Another experiment is needed, similar to this one, however this seems to be the response of most on this forum and the popular consensus. For argument's sake, we'll assume this is true.)

 

Assuming the above is true, which is better for dps? Well since the general consensus, is that 1214 is better (or at least more common in warzones) than max expertise, a dps would do (marginally) more damage going with 1214 expertise, since most of the targets he will encounter will not be max expertise targets. If everyone used max expertise, then max expertise would be better.

 

/thread

 

But your conclusion is drawn on assumptions. We need more testing! This thread has to go at least another 10 pages with more testing on Player A (1214 expertise) and Player B (max expertise) attacking Player C (other exp).

 

This debate is not yet over!

[ArchangelLBC]

This thread's experiment conclusively states that :

 

A max expertise target will do (marginally) more damage to, and take (marginally) less damage from a 1214 expertise target, in comparison to the damage that 1214 expertise target does to, and the damage received from, the max expertise target, given the same stats.

 

This is the ONLY indisputable information that the data from this experiment shows. Anything else about character sheets, or whatever you want to say is purely speculation.

 

However, it is still believed that a 1214 expertise target will do (marginally) more damage to a diffrent 1214 expertise target, than a max expertise person would do to that different 1214 expertise target. (Another experiment is needed, similar to this one, however this seems to be the response of most on this forum and the popular consensus. For argument's sake, we'll assume this is true.)

 

Assuming the above is true, which is better for dps? Well since the general consensus, is that 1214 is better (or at least more common in warzones) than max expertise, a dps would do (marginally) more damage going with 1214 expertise, since most of the targets he will encounter will not be max expertise targets. If everyone used max expertise, then max expertise would be better.

 

/thread

 

 

Hi. I know it's 28 pages but you should maybe read the rest of the thread.

 

Cash quotes his earlier simulations every few pages. Scroll back a few and you'll see them, but the simulations indicate that the 1214 expertise does more damage than a 1396 expertise to a target wearing either 1396 or 1214 expertise (so "neutral" third target wearing a set amount of expertise.). Increase appears to be the same whether the target has 1396 or 1214 expertise themselves.

[Zero_Unlimited]

But your conclusion is drawn on assumptions. We need more testing! This thread has to go at least another 10 pages with more testing on Player A (1214 expertise) and Player B (max expertise) attacking Player C (other exp).

 

This debate is not yet over!

 

My initial statement has been proven by this first experiment, but yes my final conclusion is based on assumptions that the community is correct. We do need more testing, as I've stated earlier in my post.

[Zero_Unlimited]

Hi. I know it's 28 pages but you should maybe read the rest of the thread.

 

Cash quotes his earlier simulations every few pages. Scroll back a few and you'll see them, but the simulations indicate that the 1214 expertise does more damage than a 1396 expertise to a target wearing either 1396 or 1214 expertise (so "neutral" third target wearing a set amount of expertise.). Increase appears to be the same whether the target has 1396 or 1214 expertise themselves.

 

Ah i read through most of the posts an did not see cash's simulation. So I assume there was a flaw in the original experiment then?

[stendarrs]

I've been following this off and on and must admit that I have not read every single post 100% so I apologize if I'm re-stating something here (or missed something obvious). Going back to the original post, what I'm seeing is a guy that does. 0.7% more damage to a guy with 2.7% more health....and the apparent conclusion is that it's better to die?? The pictures are somewhat blurry on my screen, am I misreading the HP numbers?

 

I understand that PvP is not 1v1, but the delta here appears to favor the lower EXP value. I know people have talked about "feeling squishy", but apparently all things being equal, this looks like it's going to be close to a wash as most healers are only going to "top off" someone's health if/when the fighting has slowed down. If nothing else, I would think that one would have to ponder long and hard whether it's worth getting the EWH mainhand/offhand if you're running a lot of toons and gearing them out via legacy.

 

Now I've looked back a bit further and see simulations showing that the lower EXP build should be outputting more damage. Sooooo...I'm now seeing a player with higher damage output, and what would appear to be enough additional HP to offset the damage mitigation lost by the EXP reduction. Is this still an argument?

Edited February 7, 2013 by stendarrs
more info.

[cashogy_reborn]

Ah i read through most of the posts an did not see cash's simulation. So I assume there was a flaw in the original experiment then?

 

so i wrote a simulation model using microsoft excel. here is a link if anyone wants to fiddle with it themselves, and look at different builds/values: https://www.dropbox.com/s/xoqnuvb3ykpqtre/swtor_expertise_sim.xlsx

 

i used Flame Burst as the test attack, to maintain some consistency with this test. it also removes the variabilty of player Armor Mitigation from the equation, since internal/elemental damage mitigation is 10% for everyone. i also based this on a 7/3/31 build for Powertech, which includes a 6% increase to fire effects (which i did account for)

 

here are the two builds i have tested

1396: http://swtor.askmrrobot.com/character/4569cc73-0c64-498e-bdaf-b0cec17c179a

1214: http://swtor.askmrrobot.com/character/b47e385d-8d69-45e1-b054-c356c425069c

 

i ran the simulation out to 10,000 randomly generated data points. here are the results:

 

1214 vs 1396

Min: 1145.14

Max: 1204.3

Mean: 1174.93

 

1396 vs 1396

Min: 1129.5

Max: 1189.8

Mean: 1159.52

 

 

the difference

Min: 1.3%

Max: 1.2%

Mean: 1.3%

 

 

 

so there ya go. 1214 expertise does 1.3% more damage than 1396 expertise vs the same 1396 target

 

for kicks, here is a 1314 build: http://swtor.askmrrobot.com/character/99aaf9c6-dc2c-474f-be59-d39ff3610e83

 

1314 vs 1396

Min: 1140.61

Max: 1200.41

Mean: 1170.35

 

the difference

Min: .97%

Max: .88%

Mean: .93%

 

1314 does just south of 1% more damage than 1396 vs the same 1396 target, with a ~1% defensive mitigation loss.

 

that is the initial post i made. ive done a bunch of other comparisons in the thread, might have to dig for em a bit

 

Now I've looked back a bit further and see simulations showing that the lower EXP build should be outputting more damage. Sooooo...I'm now seeing a player with higher damage output, and what would appear to be enough additional HP to offset the damage mitigation lost by the EXP reduction. Is this still an argument?

 

some folks are still arguing against going below 1396. tho the numbers clearly show you that cutting down to at most 1214 will offer a benefit; below that you start to see greater and greater loss of mitigation for every armoring you switch out for less and less offensive output increase

Edited February 7, 2013 by cashogy_reborn

[L-RANDLE]

that is the initial post i made. ive done a bunch of other comparisons in the thread, might have to dig for em a bit

 

 

 

some folks are still arguing against going below 1396. tho the numbers clearly show you that cutting down to at most 1214 will offer a benefit; below that you start to see greater and greater loss of mitigation for every armoring you switch out for less and less offensive output increase

 

Do me a favor? You know your program better than I do... Run this build and pick MS, calc my EFFHP. Then this build and do the same report.

 

Report back please?

 

 

Pretty please....

 

 

INB4healersQQabout it...

 

Edited February 7, 2013 by L-RANDLE

[cashogy_reborn]

Do me a favor? You know your program better than I do... Run this build and pick MS, calc my EFFHP. Then this build and do the same report.

 

Report back please?

 

 

Pretty please....

 

 

INB4healersQQabout it...

 

MS = Master Strike?

EFFHP = ???

 

i found what level its trained at (50).

 

now i only need this:

i need to know tooltip damage of Master Strike for one of those builds so i can confirm that the calculation has the right values

Edited February 7, 2013 by cashogy_reborn

[cashogy_reborn]

Do me a favor? You know your program better than I do... Run this build and pick MS, calc my EFFHP. Then this build and do the same report.

Report back please?

Pretty please....

 

INB4healersQQabout it...

 

okay, so i just went ahead and did it anyways. this is the tooltip damage i calculated, there are 2 different sets of values for master strike tho so tell me if this looks right: 5016-5354. if its off i can do it again easy enough.

 

based on that, i used a single opponent w/ 1396 expertise and 30% armor mitigation. this doesnt take into account crits.

 

1396 v 1396

Min: 3511.9

Max: 3747.8

Mean: 3629.5

 

1064 v 1396

Min: 3551.06

Max: 3777.96

Mean: 3665.16

 

difference

.97% damage increase -> advantage 1064

3.8% mitigation loss -> advantage 1396

4.6% health increase -> advantage 1064

Edited February 7, 2013 by cashogy_reborn

[L-RANDLE]

okay, so i just went ahead and did it anyways. this is the tooltip damage i calculated, there are 2 different sets of values for master strike tho so tell me if this looks right: 5016-5354. if its off i can do it again easy enough.

 

based on that, i used a single opponent w/ 1396 expertise and 30% armor mitigation. this doesnt take into account crits.

 

1396 v 1396

Min: 3511.9

Max: 3747.8

Mean: 3629.5

 

1064 v 1396

Min: 3551.06

Max: 3777.96

Mean: 3665.16

 

difference

.97% damage increase -> advantage 1064

3.8% mitigation loss -> advantage 1396

4.6% health increase -> advantage 1064

EffHP= Effective HP or Max HP *EXP mitigation.

 

Anyway just another example of why u can't judge a player by EXP alone .otherwise I would not even be able to down recruits....

[lortespand]

pyro pt. you do enough damage. stop thinking. it doesn't suit you.

[funkiestj]

EffHP= Effective HP or Max HP *EXP mitigation.

 

Anyway just another example of why u can't judge a player by EXP alone .otherwise I would not even be able to down recruits....

 

Of course it is even more complicated ...

 

EffHP makes WZ medpacs (and guardian ability enure) equivalent but you get less benefit from heals with the lower expertise. Each 1000 pts healed on the 1396 expertise go farther (+3.8% effective healing) than they do on the 1064 expertise toon.

 

That mitigation difference magnifying heals is only relevant in the context of a single fight, where single fight is defined as:

• entering combat
  
• taking damage
  
• exiting combat (either no enemy or you die)
  

I assume you heal up to 100% max health every time you exit combat.

 

So, the profile of your typical single fight plays a big role in how much you are losing from the loss in mitigation. Your definition of Effective_HP seems to ignore this.

 

The interaction between your increased max damage and whether or not you die because of reduced mitigation is complex and hard to suss out. I.e. is a good offense the best defense?

 

Taking more damage (as a result of lower mitigation) is only relevant if you or a teammate dies as a result. A teammate might die if a healer has to eventually spend another GCD healing you because of your lower mitigation. While this may happen is practice, it is probably hard to determine in post match analysis.

[Zoom_VI]

I'd rather heal a tank in 1396 expertise and 24k hp than a tank in 1011 expertise and 27k hp.

 

All that extra damage you're taking needs to be healed. Over time you require more casts/energy/force to keep up. Beyond a certain point the extra hp buffer is less of a factor than simply taking less damage.

 

The lower and lower expertise you have, the more you just become a resource sponge for the healers.

 

This is true over time but in actual pvp hp comes out better for both tank and heals

why well ill use some examples based off my van tank who has 1258 expertise (1% less mitigation than max) and 26.3k health pool

1) burst - lets say i get hit for 4k (how much competent & geared smasher hit me for) that 1% mitigation that i could have would mitigate 40 damage which in the short and rapid combat of pvp is relatively insignificant compared to the 2.5k more health i get from not mitigating that 40 damage. Yes that lost mitigation would bite me later but no pvp engement is ever going to last long enough to give that mitigation an advantage over extra HP

Also that additional health gives the healer a larger mergin of error giving them more room to heal themselves and others without sacrificing the tank

 

2) self heals - each of the tank classes has their own self healing abilities (endure for juggs, adrenaline rush for vans, tank stance heals for Sins) and the amount that such abilities heal for is dependant on HP only - not to mention warzone medpacks heal amount is based off of HP pool as well. I tested my adrenaline rush and found that it ticks for the same amount in pvp combat as it does in PvE. So again im dropping that 1% mitigation for an increase in self healing and medpack healing. While there is no good way to really test this I'm guessing based off current trends im seeing in this tread that the increase in self heals will probably equal the 1% more damage im taking.

 

3) Tanks dont always have a healer - while that 1% mitigation makes a healers job 1% easier it as shown above it costs the tank in independant survivability. So a solo guard tank would do better with less expertise and more HP (I wouldnt go down 1101 though as that 700 aditional health his tank has over mine isnt worth the dps and mitigation loss) I can attest to this as i have on many occasions held off multiple attackers long enough for reinforment to respond to the inc.

 

4) Gaurd - the damage a tank takes from his guard target is solely dependant on the guard's mitigation thus the tank have more or less expertise mitigation is intirely irrevelant, but more HP lets the tank soak up damage longer than if they had higher expertise

 

imo tanks should have no less than 1200 expertise but max expertise is more of a disadvantage for tanks than high hp

[Smashbrother]

This is true over time but in actual pvp hp comes out better for both tank and heals

why well ill use some examples based off my van tank who has 1258 expertise (1% less mitigation than max) and 26.3k health pool

1) burst - lets say i get hit for 4k (how much competent & geared smasher hit me for) that 1% mitigation that i could have would mitigate 40 damage which in the short and rapid combat of pvp is relatively insignificant compared to the 2.5k more health i get from not mitigating that 40 damage. Yes that lost mitigation would bite me later but no pvp engement is ever going to last long enough to give that mitigation an advantage over extra HP

Also that additional health gives the healer a larger mergin of error giving them more room to heal themselves and others without sacrificing the tank

 

Tanks rarely die in RWZs. So if you're not dying, mitigation is better because it's less strain on healer resources/GCDs.

 

2) self heals - each of the tank classes has their own self healing abilities (endure for juggs, adrenaline rush for vans, tank stance heals for Sins) and the amount that such abilities heal for is dependant on HP only - not to mention warzone medpacks heal amount is based off of HP pool as well. I tested my adrenaline rush and found that it ticks for the same amount in pvp combat as it does in PvE. So again im dropping that 1% mitigation for an increase in self healing and medpack healing. While there is no good way to really test this I'm guessing based off current trends im seeing in this tread that the increase in self heals will probably equal the 1% more damage im taking.

 

Adrenaline rush is completely and utter lols, and dark charge is not % based.

 

3) Tanks dont always have a healer - while that 1% mitigation makes a healers job 1% easier it as shown above it costs the tank in independant survivability. So a solo guard tank would do better with less expertise and more HP (I wouldnt go down 1101 though as that 700 aditional health his tank has over mine isnt worth the dps and mitigation loss) I can attest to this as i have on many occasions held off multiple attackers long enough for reinforment to respond to the inc.

 

Only tank that should be solo guarding is a sin, and they will be able to hold out long enough to reinforcements to arrive regardless of which expertise route they went due to their trickeries.

 

4) Gaurd - the damage a tank takes from his guard target is solely dependant on the guard's mitigation thus the tank have more or less expertise mitigation is intirely irrevelant, but more HP lets the tank soak up damage longer than if they had higher expertise

 

 

Guard takes into account the tank's mitigation, including their shield, defense, armor, expertise, etc.

[ArchangelLBC]

I need to get over to the imp side on Shadowlands to inspect but there's seriously a jugg tank (Vengence Hybrid) with the next best thing to 28k health before endure pain or warzone medpack and that dude is a beast. Very hard to take down.

 

Shaerie, if you even read this, then /salute bro.

[mrekxxx]

Why dont you ask ppl mentioned here how much expertise?

 

http://www.swtor.com/de/community/showthread.php?t=572972

 

...

Edited February 8, 2013 by mrekxxx

[cashogy_reborn]

Why dont you ask ppl mentioned here how much expertise?

 

http://www.swtor.com/de/community/showthread.php?t=572972

 

...

 

lol

 

that record thread is a joke.

[Smashbrother]

lol

 

that record thread is a joke.

 

This.

[islander]

only records that matter are wins and losses.

[funkiestj]

3) Tanks dont always have a healer - while that 1% mitigation makes a healers job 1% easier it as shown above it costs the tank in independant survivability. So a solo guard tank would do better with less expertise and more HP (I wouldnt go down 1101 though as that 700 aditional health his tank has over mine isnt worth the dps and mitigation loss) I can attest to this as i have on many occasions held off multiple attackers long enough for reinforment to respond to the inc.

 

For this case, L-RANDLE's "effective HP" is the perfect measure. As I mentioned earlier, heals (like WZ medpacs) that are based of off max health are effectively equivalent if the "effective HP" is the same. (e.g. in the two scenarios L-RANDLE had cashology_reborn run). The additional health is only beneficial in this case if it results in more "effective HP".

[funkiestj]

Tanks rarely die in RWZs. So if you're not dying, mitigation is better because it's less strain on healer resources/GCDs.

 

...

 

Guard takes into account the tank's mitigation, including their shield, defense, armor, expertise, etc.

 

Right. The whole point of guard in PvP is to filter a portion of the opposing team's damage through higher mitigation and thereby reduce their damage (and DPS).

 

I would think the only open question is the value of trading mitigation for damage (or heals, which can be considered negative damage), which is a more interesting question for DPS than for tanks.

[Zoom_VI]

Tanks rarely die in RWZs. So if you're not dying, mitigation is better because it's less strain on healer resources/GCDs.

So your telling me that the less than 1% mitigation that i dropped for 2.5k health is going to somehow strain the healers? remember thats less than 40 extra damage im taking off a 4k hit so if i take 6 4k hits my 1% less coses me to take 240 extra damage or 24240 total damage taken which stil puts me under my 26.3K HP but the max expertise tank with the mitigation will take 24000 damage which would have killed him outright

 

Adrenaline rush is completely and utter lols, and dark charge is not % based.

I stand corrected on DC but that still leaves the medpack and the otehr two tank classes

Adrenaline rush wasnt made for focus fire senarious its for topping off during fights (taking some strain off the healers) and to use while running between fights.

 

Only tank that should be solo guarding is a sin, and they will be able to hold out long enough to reinforcements to arrive regardless of which expertise route they went due to their trickeries.

right becuse there is always a Sin tank in every wz

 

 

 

Guard takes into account the tank's mitigation, including their shield, defense, armor, expertise, etc.

No it does not

In all my warzones i have NEVER dodged or shielded guard damage, after all if that where true guard damage would be practically nothing considering i would be taking

(HIT damage /2) -(hitdamage/2)*0.54

45% armor mit + 9% from tree = that 54% (elemental/internal burst attacks are so rare)

 

EX: I ran a regualer warzone with a WH healer a few days ago and we where fighting a team consisting of some 6 smash juggs

coming out of the respawn i placed a guard on said healer and kept myself some 10m away to avoid getting smashed with healer.

 

a juggernuat jumps at the healer and promtly smashes him. the guard damage i took was a little over 3900

if tank stats apply then my 45% armor mitigation and 9% raw mitigation would come into effect of course there that 30% armor penetration from smash tree so my mitigation is only 31.5% + 9% = 40.5% mitigation so that means that the guard damage would of taken without mitigation was some 6554 damage doubling that gives the amount that the jugg wouldive hit for. 6554 * 2 = 13109 and thats disregarding whatever mitigation the healer had

and 3k + damage coming from my guard isnt a isolated occurance

So either

1) juggs can smash full warhero players (the healer had both expertise crystals) for over 13k

2) guard damage isnt mitigated by the tanks defensive stats

smash hurts but 13109 isnt going to happen unless the target's still in their 49 gear

[Smashbrother]

So your telling me that the less than 1% mitigation that i dropped for 2.5k health is going to somehow strain the healers? remember thats less than 40 extra damage im taking off a 4k hit so if i take 6 4k hits my 1% less coses me to take 240 extra damage or 24240 total damage taken which stil puts me under my 26.3K HP but the max expertise tank with the mitigation will take 24000 damage which would have killed him outright

 

HP is merely a buffer to prevent death from burst damage. If you're not dying, the extra HP is worthless.

 

For example it doesn't matter if you've got 20k or 100k hp if while in combat your guy is floating around 10-15k the whole time because you're taking constant damage and healers aren't topping you off because there are other things to heal.

 

Same with 26k and 24k. When you are in combat, how often are you at full HP? Rarely if ever. Thus, the extra HP is ONLY USEFUL for when you initiate. That's it.

 

Oh and btw, when two equal teams play each other, good tanks can rack up 500k+ protection while maybe dying once or twice, if ever. The extra mitigation does make a difference over the long run.

 

 

I stand corrected on DC but that still leaves the medpack and the otehr two tank classes

Adrenaline rush wasnt made for focus fire senarious its for topping off during fights (taking some strain off the healers) and to use while running between fights.

 

AR is on a 3 min cooldown and is nearly worthless heal and pretty much irrelevant. Stop talking about it. Also, those heals are subject to trauma.

 

right becuse there is always a Sin tank in every wz

 

There is in every rwz.

 

If you're talking about regs, you can wear whatever the **** you want and still do well. For ***** and giggles, I've worn my pve gear and still did well.

 

 

No it does not

 

Yes it does. Devs have confirmed how guard works a long *** time ago. Guard splits the damage in half, one half going to target, one half going to tank. Then each person's individual mitigation applies to it. People have already tested this **** in game to confirm what the devs said. You're wrong. Period.

Edited February 9, 2013 by Smashbrother

[Evuo]

So your telling me that the less than 1% mitigation that i dropped for 2.5k health is going to somehow strain the healers? remember thats less than 40 extra damage im taking off a 4k hit so if i take 6 4k hits my 1% less coses me to take 240 extra damage or 24240 total damage taken which stil puts me under my 26.3K HP but the max expertise tank with the mitigation will take 24000 damage which would have killed him outright

 

There is not an experise trade-off where you can lose less than 1% damage mitagation for 2.5k hp.

 

No it does not

In all my warzones i have NEVER dodged or shielded guard damage, after all if that where true guard damage would be practically nothing considering i would be taking

(HIT damage /2) -(hitdamage/2)*0.54

45% armor mit + 9% from tree = that 54% (elemental/internal burst attacks are so rare)

 

EX: I ran a regualer warzone with a WH healer a few days ago and we where fighting a team consisting of some 6 smash juggs

coming out of the respawn i placed a guard on said healer and kept myself some 10m away to avoid getting smashed with healer.

 

a juggernuat jumps at the healer and promtly smashes him. the guard damage i took was a little over 3900

if tank stats apply then my 45% armor mitigation and 9% raw mitigation would come into effect of course there that 30% armor penetration from smash tree so my mitigation is only 31.5% + 9% = 40.5% mitigation so that means that the guard damage would of taken without mitigation was some 6554 damage doubling that gives the amount that the jugg wouldive hit for. 6554 * 2 = 13109 and thats disregarding whatever mitigation the healer had

and 3k + damage coming from my guard isnt a isolated occurance

So either

1) juggs can smash full warhero players (the healer had both expertise crystals) for over 13k

2) guard damage isnt mitigated by the tanks defensive stats

smash hurts but 13109 isnt going to happen unless the target's still in their 49 gear

 

Yes it does. Source: http://www.tankingtor.com/2012/05/swtor-tanking-specific-interview-with.html

 

As for the math, I would need your armor value to determine your mitigation to the opponent's smash. If it is with full 27 armorings and Ion Cell then it would be 8183.2. If you also have the 16% armor modification skill then it is 8993.9. If I use those numbers then:

 

Armor after shii-cho mastery:

1-.3 = .7

8183.2 * .7 = 5728.24

 

Armor Damage Reduction:

5728.24 / ( 5728.24 + 200 * 50 + 800 ) * 100 = 34.65728958%

 

Armor Damage Reduction + Flat Mitigation:

34.65728958 + 9 = 43.65728958 %

43.65728958 / 100 = .4365728958

 

Percent of Damage taken from the attack after armor and flat mitigation:

1 - .4365728958 = .5634271042 * 100 = 56.34271042%

 

Damage done by the guarded attack without armor and flat mitigation:

3900 / .5634271042 = 6921.92472

 

 

Armor after shii-cho mastery:

1 - .3 = .7

8993.9 * .7 = 6295.73

 

Armor Damage Reduction:

6295.73 / ( 6295.73 + 200 * 50 + 800 ) * 100 = 36.82633032%

 

Armor Damage Reduction + Flat Mitigation:

36.82633032 + 9 = 45.82633032%

45.82633032 / 100 = .4582633032

 

Percent of Damage taken from the attack after armor and flat mitigation:

1 - .4582633032 = .5417366968 * 100 = 54.17366968%

 

Damage done by the guarded attack prior to armor and flat mitigation:

3900 / .5417366968 = 7199.069258

 

So it is either option "1" or you can add an option "3" to your list, the number given (3900) could be exaggerated.

 

Armor reduction formula source: http://mmo-mechanics.com/swtor/forums/thread-364.html

[ArchangelLBC]

I have nothing to add to the tank discussion, but please keep it up as this is interesting.