Can any MMO really succeed today?

[NamikazeNaruto]

It just seems like any MMO that comes out today eventually loses so many of their subscriptions and popularity from when it first comes out. I get the impression that this is the worst genre to make a game for. It seems impossible to satisfy today's MMO players. I blame WoW for this. WoW came out during a time when MMO competition wasn't as fierce, and a lot of MMO concepts hadn't been established yet. Eventually it took off to massive popularity. As time went on, they continually dumbed the game down more and more, and continually added features. Somehow it still remains the most popular MMO.

 

Every MMO that has launched since WoW has not seemed to fare that well, with the best doing "ok" in the market. It is a cycle that I have seen constantly for years. People get all excited about a new MMO coming out. They set their expectations impossibly high. They expect the MMOs to have everything that WoW has. Thing is WoW has had so much time to add these features, and people have stuck with that game all this time. It seems MMO players today are not willing to do that. They want a ridiculous amount of features in their MMO and they want it NOW. So people always say the next MMO will kill WoW, and when it doesn't have this ridiculous amount of features that they expected, they quit the game. Then the cycle continues and people say the next MMO will be the one to "kill WoW" and then they are disappointed once more.

 

I guess my main question is... Is there even any point to making an MMO in today's market? Is there any profit in it? Do you really think GW2 will do any better than SWToR, or Rift, or the other MMOs that have come out since WoW? IMO this game seems to be dying, but can any MMO besides WoW really thrive in today's market? I assure you, GW2 will not be the WoW killer or the end all be all to MMOs. I feel that the problem lies with the market and not the games. The MMO crowd is now impossible to satisfy, impossible to satiate. It's not only this game that is dying, it is the genre itself.

[Tic-]

It just seems like any MMO that comes out today eventually loses so many of their subscriptions and popularity from when it first comes out. I get the impression that this is the worst genre to make a game for. It seems impossible to satisfy today's MMO players. I blame WoW for this. WoW came out during a time when MMO competition wasn't as fierce, and a lot of MMO concepts hadn't been established yet. Eventually it took off to massive popularity. As time went on, they continually dumbed the game down more and more, and continually added features. Somehow it still remains the most popular MMO.

 

Every MMO that has launched since WoW has not seemed to fare that well, with the best doing "ok" in the market. It is a cycle that I have seen constantly for years. People get all excited about a new MMO coming out. They set their expectations impossibly high. They expect the MMOs to have everything that WoW has. Thing is WoW has had so much time to add these features, and people have stuck with that game all this time. It seems MMO players today are not willing to do that. They want a ridiculous amount of features in their MMO and they want it NOW. So people always say the next MMO will kill WoW, and when it doesn't have this ridiculous amount of features that they expected, they quit the game. Then the cycle continues and people say the next MMO will be the one to "kill WoW" and then they are disappointed once more.

 

I guess my main question is... Is there even any point to making an MMO in today's market? Is there any profit in it? Do you really think GW2 will do any better than SWToR, or Rift, or the other MMOs that have come out since WoW? IMO this game seems to be dying, but can any MMO besides WoW really thrive in today's market? I assure you, GW2 will not be the WoW killer or the end all be all to MMOs. I feel that the problem lies with the market and not the games. The MMO crowd is now impossible to satisfy, impossible to satiate. It's not only this game that is dying, it is the genre itself.

 

Maybe they need to stop trying to make WoW, and make their own MMO.

Edited August 11, 2012 by Tic-

[Vespassian]

Maybe they need to stop trying to make WoW, and make their own MMO.

 

^ This. Swag.

[Styxx]

WOW exists, however. Where one reached that "peak", so can a second..and a third... thing is, they can`t.

 

I suspect it is because they are trying to copy it, rather than offer a better alternative.

 

Chances are really high that, if a player wants to play WOW... it is already playing it.

Edited August 11, 2012 by Styxx

[MrLeee]

Rift is doing well!

[Jnight]

What is your definition of success? What are some current mainstream MMOs that actually died and shut down their servers? Sure some are more successful than others, but that doesn't mean the others weren't successful.

 

Too many people think that success means dethroning WoW and that's just a bad way of looking at it. I'm reluctant to say it, but I feel WoW is an anomaly. It happened in a period of time with lack of alternatives (social gaming and social media wise) and was accessible enough to attract millions upon millions. For many that will be their one and only MMO! For many others, they are already so vested (in time put in) in WOW that they will not leave that behind until it dies of natural causes (old age).

 

Success in its most basic form? Player enjoyment enough to keep logging back in while maintaining enough profit to keep the lights on?

Edited August 11, 2012 by Jnight

[Styxx]

I'm reluctant to say it, but I feel WoW is an anomaly.

 

It exists, however. It is, furthermore, the leader of a certain market. The ONLY success is to beat the leader, not fight for scraps.

 

Regardless of how we see it, it did something right. What is keeping other devs to do something right, as well?

Edited August 11, 2012 by Styxx

[Skorz]

I guess the MMO players are split since there are so many MMO's to choose from. Players try everything until they find their favorite one so not every MMO will have millions of players anymore.

 

It seems impossible to satisfy today's MMO players. I blame WoW for this. WoW came out during a time when MMO competition wasn't as fierce, and a lot of MMO concepts hadn't been established yet. Eventually it took off to massive popularity. As time went on, they continually dumbed the game down more and more, and continually added features. Somehow it still remains the most popular MMO.

 

I agree with you that the MMO's are what they are now because of WoW's success and I kinda hate it for that because I used to play sandbox MMO's like SWG and I enjoyed them but now gaming companies don't have the balls to try and make MMO's like SWG (improved version of it of course, not exact copy) because it wouldn't sell much (because simple people don't like complex stuff ) and now everything is just dumbed down ever since MMO's went to mainstream

 

Why can't the gaming companies try something that is a little bit of both?

 

Sorry for my bad English.

Edited August 11, 2012 by Skorz

[NamikazeNaruto]

What is your definition of success? What are some current mainstream MMOs that actually died and shut down their servers? Sure some are more successful than others, but that doesn't mean the others weren't successful.

 

Too many people think that success means dethroning WoW and that's just a bad way of looking at it. I'm reluctant to say it, but I feel WoW is an anomaly. It happened in a period of time with lack of alternatives (social gaming and social media wise) and was accessible enough to attract millions upon millions. For many that will be their one and only MMO! For many others, they are already so vested (in time put in) in WOW that they will not leave that behind until it dies of natural causes (old age).

 

Success in its most basic form? Player enjoyment enough to keep logging back in while maintaining enough profit to keep the lights on?

 

I would define success as having a large and thriving community. For example in this game, if ranked queues and normal warzones queues were still instant pop, and there was open world PvP, I would define that as success. If this game was gaining subs instead of losing them, I'd define that as success. If PvE group finder yielded instant queues and new content was being out every few months, I would define that as success. None of these things are happening. Plus GW2 is coming and school is around the corner, and there is still little communication from the devs as to when new content is coming. I do not think this bodes well for the game. I would not call this success.

[cool-dude]

I think all mmos eventually die to the point you cannot play the game you purchased, and the money you put into the game is wasted. Edited August 11, 2012 by cool-dude

[Mandrath]

It really depends on how you define success. It would take a genre changing new MMO to unseat WoW and even that may never reach the number of "subscriptions" that WoW has. We have to keep a couple of things in mind when talking about WoW's numbers. They aren't entirely honest in their counts, and they've really gone beyond being just an MMO. WoW is a social event wrapped around RAIDs. That's their only real appeal now, and I'll guarantee you that a lot of their subscribers are people who aren't active but keep their account open to socialize with their friends.

 

As for generic success, it should only be measured by the need for x number of subscriptions to be profitable. If SWTOR maintains that number, they're successful. There's lots of MMOs out there hovering around 100k subs which are still running and still producing content. Now, SWTOR probably needs 250k+, but that's maintainable. Will they ever match the mythical 10 million of WoW? No. But that doesn't mean they're a failure either.

[Aricus]

It really depends on how you define success. It would take a genre changing new MMO to unseat WoW and even that may never reach the number of "subscriptions" that WoW has. We have to keep a couple of things in mind when talking about WoW's numbers. They aren't entirely honest in their counts, and they've really gone beyond being just an MMO. WoW is a social event wrapped around RAIDs. That's their only real appeal now, and I'll guarantee you that a lot of their subscribers are people who aren't active but keep their account open to socialize with their friends.

 

As for generic success, it should only be measured by the need for x number of subscriptions to be profitable. If SWTOR maintains that number, they're successful. There's lots of MMOs out there hovering around 100k subs which are still running and still producing content. Now, SWTOR probably needs 250k+, but that's maintainable. Will they ever match the mythical 10 million of WoW? No. But that doesn't mean they're a failure either.

 

You define success by comparing yourself to the market. Right now there's only one huge market and that's WoW. Sure there are other MMOs but no other MMO has even 1 million subscribers but yet WoW has 10 million and held it for quite sometime. AAA MMO developers don't make MMOs just to barely break even they make them to be on par with the market leaders. This game wasn't meant to sit between 500k - 1 million subs it was meant for more. Thus why EA conference called declared it a "disappointment" and is now trying to salvage what they can by making it F2P.

 

The problem with MMOs today is that all of them came out as a WoW carbon copy with a basis of grinding for gear even when there's no point to grind for it (Warhammer). Every MMO that failed was pretty much WoW 2.0 or had massive bugs (DCOU). Another problem is that MMOs are too linear. Crafting is usually pointless, there's no other objective other than grinding credits or gear and the social community is nearly non-existent.

 

So until developers fray from the WoW/EQ model, an MMO will always turn out to be a failure. The only MMO I see that's somewhat trying to move away from the WoW model is GW2. Although there are some things similar to WoW in it, ultimately GW2 is suppose to make crafting relevant and trade worthy and the gear grind is suppose to be non existent with the game being more skilled base. Not to mention housing is told to be released in the future which would add another level of game play, depending how they do it.

Edited August 11, 2012 by Aricus

[Blattan]

Can any MMO really succeed today?

 

Yes, they can. That doesn't mean they will...

 

It requires a fundamental shift is design philosophies. "Back in the day," () every game had the same crappy 8-bit graphics. What set one game apart from another was gameplay. Times changed, and somewhere along the line graphics trumped all. It didn't really matter how good your game played, if it didn't have kick *** graphics, it got no love.

The pendulum has swung back almost to the other side again.

 

Graphics are still important, but gameplay is even more important now. The mobile app market just reinforces that. (You can't get photo-realistic 1080p graphics on a smart phone, although Apple is trying with its tablets.)

 

Any newly launched MMO needs to show up with all the expected gameplay features players have come to expect.

 

Stuff like, but not limited to:

• No real server separation. If a game must have individual servers, they must have cross-server gameplay somewhere. Players need to have access to nearly everyone at every time. It avoids things like friends starting the game late on "the wrong server," and having to either suck it up, or re-roll.
  
• Full appearance customizability. Not necessarily from character creation. But appearance can not be tied directly into stats.
  
• "Social" activities. I do not mean PvP, or group stuff like raids. I am talking about minigames the sort you find on social sites, and mobile apps. Little time killers that players can do at a whim.
  
• Flexible number of character slots. No matter how generous a new game is with character slots, players almost always want more. This can be mitigated with flexible character building, a la The Secret World.
  
• Great client performance, without needing to be an early adopter. Initial load ups appear to be similar among the MMOs I have tried recently, but once in game some do much better than others. (And, for the record, SW:TOR is among the worst.)

 

This alone won't make a game successful out of the gate, but it gives a distinct advantage. Any game that is going to take over a year to develop needs to have the solid code infrastructure to be able to adapt in whatever elements knock the socks off of players in other games while it is still in development.

 

Next is a restructuring of how to handle bugs, and other game issues. Common methodology appears to be "damn the little things, work only on the big things." But that is not the best way to handle it. If a game has one game breaking bug, and twenty little bugs, and it takes the team one month to fix the game breaking bug - there are twenty little bugs that are running around getting on players nerves. Not to mention, the odds are good that another game breaking bug will crop up before the team can squash all the little bugs.

 

Something like 20% time needs to be implemented. This way, 80% of the teams time is focused on the game breakers, while 20% of the time they knock out the little things. It helps keep the minds sharp and fresh, and in fixing a little bug there might be inspiration on tackling the game breakers. Not to mention it can be really noticeable, and refreshing. If a little bug is left long enough, it may become so common place that when it does get fixed - no one really notices. (Such as the "chapter title carry over" in SW:TOR. It was the bug where if you logged out of a character that hadn't finished their story, and then logged into a character who had, on the initial load screen under "Interlude" was the chapter title of the previous character. That went on so long, I can't even tell you when it was fixed. )

 

Also, there needs to be a way to greatly reduce development costs. Games seem to be following the same trend as movies. High budget films can really flop/disappoint, while low budget indie films can really innovate and impress. I think this has to do with the really high budget games tend to bring along their investors demands with their money... But I am just guessing here.

 

So, there is plenty of room for a MMO to succeed. But it isn't likely to happen.

[theangryllama]

You need to note however that an successful for an MMO is really maintaining over a 1mil subscriber base. The break even point is less than 500k (this games is 500k and it was considerably more expensive than most).

 

WoW should not be used as the benchmark for success... no one expected that level and no one will ever reach it again. Subscription gaming in general is dying out as more and more people want instant gratification. Look at even WoW's numbers... 3 million lost this year, 25% of their subscribers... and I wouldn't be surprised to see the actual losses at twice that but with 3mil new ones gained to balance.

[Scritchy]

It just seems like any MMO that comes out today eventually loses so many of their subscriptions and popularity from when it first comes out.

Isn't EVE still growing their subscription numbers?

[RazielHex]

It exists, however. It is, furthermore, the leader of a certain market. The ONLY success is to beat the leader, not fight for scraps.

 

Regardless of how we see it, it did something right. What is keeping other devs to do something right, as well?

 

What an idiot viewpoint.

 

All Retail Stores that are not Wal-mart are failures?

All Restaurants that are not McDonald's are failures?

All Olympic Silver Medalists are failures?

 

Please. Your polarized perception is infinitely flawed.

[Briq]

I feel that the problem lies with the market and not the games. The MMO crowd is now impossible to satisfy, impossible to satiate. It's not only this game that is dying, it is the genre itself.

 

don't make the mistake of thinking that it's a market trend to blame for this abortion of a game .

[crazysam]

Rift is doing well!

 

Rift is the second most succefull MMO.

Edited August 11, 2012 by crazysam

[Kalfear]

It just seems like any MMO that comes out today eventually loses so many of their subscriptions and popularity from when it first comes out. I get the impression that this is the worst genre to make a game for. It seems impossible to satisfy today's MMO players. I blame WoW for this. WoW came out during a time when MMO competition wasn't as fierce, and a lot of MMO concepts hadn't been established yet. Eventually it took off to massive popularity. As time went on, they continually dumbed the game down more and more, and continually added features. Somehow it still remains the most popular MMO.

 

.

 

Completely and utterly false in every regard other then WOW staying most popular currently

 

FACT: MMO competition has been feirce since EQ was designed to crush Ultima Online. Before that the MMORPGs mostly co exisisted and played to their nitch crowd.

 

NWN on AOL was the first and had the best community

Realms was more customizable and offered housing and character customization

Meridian 59 was die hard pvp

Even DSO appealed to some (lord knows why)

 

UO came out at a time of a industry change so had no real modern competition but EQ was designed from ground up to SMASH UO into the group cometition wise and every MMORPG since then has been designed in large or small to do just that as well.

 

If you think WOW created the MMORPG competition, you need to spend more time learning about the genre you are referencing.

 

FACT: WOW established and created ZERO MMORPG concepts outside of dumbing everything down. EVERY SINGLE ASPECT EVER put into WOW has been done before (and better) by a earlier MMORPG.

 

WOW had ZERO original concepts and offered the genre ZERO original content.

They simply beg/borrowed/stole everyone elses ideas and mechanics and then lowered it to the lowest common denomenator they could. When that didnt sell to the established MMORPG crowd, they paid some celebs to name drop the title here and there and they literally became a over night success.

 

The ONLY lesson anyone should learn from WOW is how to market a MMORPG.

 

FACT: WOW hasnt been dumbed down over time. It was dumbed down from word go! MMORPG reveiwers routinely refered to WOW (in beta and at original launch) as " A MMORPG on training wheels".

 

I really wish you people would stop trying to present WOW as this one time tough game.

IT NEVER WAS.

It has always and will always be a EASY MODE, INSTANT GRATIFICATION GAME!

 

FACT: The reason why post WOW MMORPGs have been failing is they try to reoffer WOW in a new skin.

 

People who leave WOW are looking for a different game, not WOW in a new skin.

People that like WOW are still playing WOW and ARE NOT the target audience of the new MMORPGs

 

EA and Bioware made a huge mistake thinking (like Aion, like Rift, like ...) if they remake WOW mechanics at the dumbed down levels that WOW HAS ALWAYS BEEN, they will recreate WOW success.

 

FACT: No one is going to recreate WOW success because its not based on MMORPG standards and concepts. WOW is and was a fad. The fad is losing steam and WOWs numbers are in a free fall because of it.

 

But all those players leaving WOW are not looking for WOW in space, WOW in a new fantasy land, WOW with Pandas. They have played easy mode and conquered. Now they want to step up to the next level.

 

FACT: The MMORPG industry is fine and a subscription based game can make someone buckets and buckets of money. IF THEIR PRODUCT DELIVERS THE GOODS. Fact 2.1-2.4 million people purchased TOR with every intention of paying a monthly fee more then tells us that

 

Right now, there is no MMORPG on the market or upcoming to the market that delivers the goods.

 

Make the right game and the people will play and they will pay and it will not be a issue.

Its only a issue when games under excell and fail to live up to expectations.

 

FACT: If you fail to develope a complete game, you will end up going F2P very quickly (as Rift has, as Aion has, as TOR is doing)

 

FACT: F2P is not this pot of gold marketting scheme. Its a last ditch effort to get some players back to your product in the hopes they will become addicted and subscribe long term.

 

Make no mistake, F2P is just a marketting ploy to boost sagging subscriptions when everything else tried has failed.

 

Closing: Its pretty clear you came to MMORPGs in WOW and simply havent done your homework about the rich and vibrant history of MMORPGs that started in 1991 on AOL with a game called Neverwinter Nights (Bioware years later would develop their own product using the same name). WOW was not first, WOW was not best. WOW was most popular but as any adult can tell you. Popularity and quality do NOT always go hand in hand.

 

WOW was simply this generations latest Sailor Moon, Garbage Pail Kids, Smurfs, ect (insert any low quality but hugely popular FAD over the years). And like them all its hold is lessening and people are moving on quickly.

 

WOW is NOT a indictaion or representation of the MMORPG genre.

WOW is a indication and representation of the "me generation infecting Online gaming" and has absolutely nothing positive to teach to upcoming developers beyond how to successfully market a video game to non traditional player base.

[Mallorik]

When someoen makes a good mmo with modern features at release that fails ill believe that mmos cant succeed anymore. But it hasnt been done since wow, so no i dont believe it.

[discosoc]

The problem is that too many games come out claiming to be MMO's, but they're really just single player games with multiplayer capabilities. People don't want to pay 15 a month for that.

 

Companies making their "MMO's" to be like WoW doesn't help either. If someone want's to play a WoW-like game, they'll play WoW.

[Scritchy]

EA and Bioware made a huge mistake thinking (like Aion, like Rift, like ...) if they remake WOW mechanics at the dumbed down levels that WOW HAS ALWAYS BEEN, they will recreate WOW success.

You can't really add Aion into your discussion, because it is totally different. Aion was developed for different gamers. It was just a localized version of an Asian grinding game. The concepts were painful for most of the western audience, which is why the western version went f2p. The original is still the same as it always was and still has a ton of Asian gamers playing it. Eastern and western MMO markets are really different.

[kirorx]

Maybe they need to stop trying to make WoW, and make their own MMO.

 

this..

[corebit]

Any MMO can be successful if the developer is humble about it, keep it realistic, understand your audience, and just make a unique and niche game that your core fans enjoy, instead of trying to cater to everyone out there.

 

For example: why does EVE Online retain a healthy number of subs even after all these years? It understands its fans love the open space, spreadsheet-strength economy, and no bars-hold PVP, so it continually improves upon that formula, instead of trying to shoot in all directions.

Why does LOTRO remain successful? It has housing, crafting, great RP-friendly atmosphere and mechanics. Something which sets it apart from other games.

 

What does SWTOR offer? Just story, story, story. That's the only thing that sets it apart. And worst of all, it spent hundreds of millions of dollars mostly on story and VO alone. But that's not sustainable. The other end-game stuff is mediocre compared to the competition.

 

It could have been a very successful single player game. Maybe single-player game of the year. The KOTOR 3 that everyone clamored for. But noooo, Bioware got greedy.

 

Instead, Bioware thought it could just copy WoW's mechanics and just add story on top, and then try to pass it off as a competitive MMO. Sorry, but you can't out-WoW WoW.

Edited August 11, 2012 by corebit

[cool-dude]

Isn't EVE still growing their subscription numbers?

 

It indeed is, but Eve is always making drastic changes to their games. Hell, they even update the graphics engine to keep it up to date with most games.