Roalmo Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 It amazes me that you people are more concerned with this than you are about playing the game itself. You doomsayers are going to end up being a self-fulfilling prophecy. Does it really matter what the total numbers of players really is? If you're playing and having a good time, no, it doesn't matter. If you're playing and not having a good time, stop playing and unsubscribe. Whether there's 500 or 520 or 380 people on during prime time on a holiday at low tide when Mars is aligned with Jupiter in the seventh position shouldn't have any sort of impact that you or anyone else playing the game should care about. WE HAVE a DAILY Reading Comprehension WINNER!! The prize will be shipped to him soon, an old Mcguffy Reader, so he can get up to speed!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpienne Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 It amazes me that you people are more concerned with this than you are about playing the game itself. You doomsayers are going to end up being a self-fulfilling prophecy. Does it really matter what the total numbers of players really is? If you're playing and having a good time, no, it doesn't matter. I completely agree with your second point. Who are you talking to with the first point? I think you may be turned around and in the wrong thread? Paige Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YanksfanJP Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 (edited) WE HAVE a DAILY Reading Comprehension WINNER!! The prize will be shipped to him soon, an old Mcguffy Reader, so he can get up to speed!!! I completely agree with your second point. Who are you talking to with the first point? I think you may be turned around and in the wrong thread? Paige I can read very well and I'm quite up to speed. Mask it or spin it however you want - the only reason people even care to keep track of this stuff is because they like comparing sub numbers to other games and complain how doomed the game is. Paige can call it "observational curiosity" all she wants, but anyone with half a brain knows it's a bald-faced lie. If the game was doing well, she wouldn't care about server logins. Nobody would. None of these "sub numbers" or "server capacity status" threads would exist. At least have the decency to not play all these people for fools and call this thread what you really meant it to be - you trying to convince people the game is dead. Edited June 25, 2012 by YanksfanJP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kharnis Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 (edited) It amazes me that you people are more concerned with this than you are about playing the game itself. You doomsayers are going to end up being a self-fulfilling prophecy. Does it really matter what the total numbers of players really is? If you're playing and having a good time, no, it doesn't matter. If you're playing and not having a good time, stop playing and unsubscribe. Whether there's 500 or 520 or 380 people on during prime time on a holiday at low tide when Mars is aligned with Jupiter in the seventh position shouldn't have any sort of impact that you or anyone else playing the game should care about. I haven't commented yet in this thread because, quite frankly, statistics are not exactly my strength in life. However, I'd just like to point out that if these people are "doomsayers" and that they are trying to bring about a self-fulfilling prophecy, then they are doing something horribly wrong. Their own data, summed up in their own words, point to not just an increase in the number of concurrent log-ins, but an unforeseen explosion in the increase of concurrent log-ins. Edited June 25, 2012 by Kharnis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreatGarth Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 (edited) *Snip* At least have the decency to not play all these people for fools and call this thread what you really meant it to be - you trying to convince people the game is dead. I didnt get that at all. (At least from OP) I cant say for anybody else, but for me it is interesting to know the sub numbers for reasons such as: How much money will be put back in to the game, how fast updates will come out? Edited June 25, 2012 by GreatGarth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpienne Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 (edited) I can read very well and I'm quite up to speed. [snip] At least have the decency to not play all these people for fools and call this thread what you really meant it to be - you trying to convince people the game is dead. Would you please show me, in my entire post history, from the ends of time, anywhere on the internet where I have clearly and explicitly tried "to convince people the game is dead"? If you can find a place where I have clearly and explicitly tried to convince people the game is dead, I will donate $100 to the charity of your choice from the following list. 1) ASPCA 2) World Wildlife Fund 3) Oxfam International 4) The March of Dimes 5) The American Cancer Society 6) The Red Cross To speed up your search, you can go here: http://www.swtor.com/community/member.php?u=589395 And click on "Find all posts by Scorpienne" and you can review my post history in detail. You will also find my posts in the following forums: http://www.ebon-hawk.net http://www.swtor-rp.com/ebonhawk and also /sanctumoftheexalted http://sanctumoftheexalted.enjin.com/ http://www.thethirteenthlegion.torportal.com I think, sir, you are, as they say "barking up the wrong tree". Paige Edited June 25, 2012 by Scorpienne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnakeCL Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 LOL, in other news, looks like we have some new people filling out surveys! Hurray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpienne Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 LOL, in other news, looks like we have some new people filling out surveys! Hurray! Yep. I posted in the server-specific forums for the top 30 asking people to fill out the surveys. A lot of the responses are kind of like the noises of barnyard animals, but a few people are taking surveys, so that's good. I'm hoping to get a greater diversity of servers, areas, and load-levels. Paige Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakaii Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Paige, I'm curious. In the survey, I reported the population for Belgoth's Beacon and it says "[FLAGGED]". I'm guessing that's just because the population at any given time could be counted on both hands? (as in, too low to accurately count without doing it manually?) Anyway, I'll try to keep you up to speed on the Fatman, my main server. I'll be sure to give a few surveys from prime time too, around 7 pm to 12 am EST. Last night there were nearly 300 people on the fleet alone. I find it strange that the Fatman's population is declining, although it's not necessarily a bad thing, since it's currently stuffed to the rafters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpienne Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 Paige, I'm curious. In the survey, I reported the population for Belgoth's Beacon and it says "[FLAGGED]". I'm guessing that's just because the population at any given time could be counted on both hands? (as in, too low to accurately count without doing it manually?) Anyway, I'll try to keep you up to speed on the Fatman, my main server. I'll be sure to give a few surveys from prime time too, around 7 pm to 12 am EST. Last night there were nearly 300 people on the fleet alone. I find it strange that the Fatman's population is declining, although it's not necessarily a bad thing, since it's currently stuffed to the rafters. Yeah, the BB "looked funny". The # of 50s and the disposition of the 50s in the adv classes didn't seem to match up or make sense. Thanks for the Fatman data. I'm sure The Fatman is declining because people are playing their transferred mains instead of Fatman alts. Hopefully that will ease the load a bit. Paige Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpienne Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 Also, here's an update on the server population survey. If you'd like to review the ongoing data collection and run your own analysis, or peek in to see what we've learned so far, you can do so by going here. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aregkvys5QFodDlvU05lQ3o2S3ZrYU9SYjRwM29OSnc#gid=0 You'll see pages for current stats for The Ebon Hawk, Begeron Colony, and Jedi Covenant. I don't really have enough data to say meaningful things about the other servers yet. Beg Colony Graphics https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B7egkvys5QFodEtwT1lYWEZrVTA Average Population: 1,025 (but this is a lot of off-peak data) Average Rep/Imp: 53% to 47% Average Level 50s: 33% of pop Ebon Hawk Graphics https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B7egkvys5QFodG9WMXhYRENlR2s Average Population: 2,654 (all peak hours data) Average Rep/Imp: 51% to 49% Average Level 50s: 36% of pop Jedi Covenant Graphics https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B7egkvys5QFoMlBmemJMOVBZcVU Average Population: 2,199 (but some is off-peak data) Average Rep/Imp: 56% to 44% (biggest gap is lvl 50s) Average Level 50s: 32% of pop Paige Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YanksfanJP Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Would you please show me, in my entire post history, from the ends of time, anywhere on the internet where I have clearly and explicitly tried "to convince people the game is dead"? Just the fact that you are posting the numbers in the first place is proof. If the game was doing well in your eyes, you wouldn't have any interest in it. I'm just putting two and two together. If you can find a place where I have clearly and explicitly tried to convince people the game is dead, I will donate $100 to the charity of your choice from the following list. 1) ASPCA 2) World Wildlife Fund 3) Oxfam International 4) The March of Dimes 5) The American Cancer Society 6) The Red Cross To speed up your search, you can go here: http://www.swtor.com/community/member.php?u=589395 And click on "Find all posts by Scorpienne" and you can review my post history in detail. You will also find my posts in the following forums: http://www.ebon-hawk.net http://www.swtor-rp.com/ebonhawk and also /sanctumoftheexalted http://sanctumoftheexalted.enjin.com/ http://www.thethirteenthlegion.torportal.com I think, sir, you are, as they say "barking up the wrong tree". Paige You don't have to explicitly say anything at all to be guilty. That's not how reality works. Criminals get found guilty all the time without ever having admitted to a crime. I don't believe you because of what I said above. There's no reason to even care about the numbers unless you have concerns about the game's long-term viability. You are going out of your way to magnify it for everyone else, and that's even more proof that you're not as innocent as you would say. Actions speak louder than words. American Cancer Society please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpienne Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 (edited) Just the fact that you are posting the numbers in the first place is proof. If the game was doing well in your eyes, you wouldn't have any interest in it. I'm just putting two and two together. I completely disagree. That's like saying the people who do the census are trying to say that the US is about to fail. You can count things in order to understand them. I submit that you are in the grip of a logical fallacy. In fact, if you actually *read* even a fraction of what I've done, you might have a distinctly different opinon. If you don't like this thread, then I politely and fervently request that you never pollute your eyes or your brain with it again. Please don't do that to yourself. I will regretfully refer further antagonism to a moderator. Paige Edited June 26, 2012 by Scorpienne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YanksfanJP Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 (edited) I completely disagree. In fact, if you actually *read* even a fraction of what I've done, you might have a distinctly different opinon. If you don't like this thread, then I politely and fervently request that you never pollute your eyes or your brain with it again. Please don't do that to yourself. I will regretfully refer further antagonism to a moderator. Paige Disagreeing with you isn't antagonism. Do you seriously think that everyone should automatically agree with everything you post in a thread? As I said before, I read everything you wrote and because of the nature of your "work," I don't agree with or believe you. That is not antagonism. I have the right to disagree with you and your intentions and it doesn't violate any forum rules. That's like saying the people who do the census are trying to say that the US is about to fail. You can count things in order to understand them. Apples and oranges. Politics in this country doesn't measure the USA's "success" or "failure" on population, and there's a strong case to be made that too high a population is as much a sign of failure as too low a population, and that's not even considering the current economic climate. However, in an MMO success is only measured by high subscriber numbers, which translates directly into profits. And with Bioware being a company, profits are all that matter. The two do not compare. Edited June 26, 2012 by YanksfanJP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpienne Posted June 26, 2012 Author Share Posted June 26, 2012 (edited) So, guys... given our better estimates of server load versus population: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aregkvys5QFodDlvU05lQ3o2S3ZrYU9SYjRwM29OSnc#gid=12 What do you think about making the following three changes to the numbers for the Wednesday analysis? 1. Do everything Jeffstyle: (Jeff, I know I *greatly* simplified your math. I'm trying to make it digestible by normal people. Does this make sense?) If Φ is exactly equal to a whole number, then use the average value for that status level. If Φ is between two whole numbers multiply the decimal times the higher status average population multiply 1 - the decimal times the lower status average population Φ = 2.8 20% at status 2 80% at status 3 Φ = 3.4 60% at status 3 40% at status 4 If the decimal of Φ is equal to 0.50 then the server spends 50% of its time at each status. 2. Use the new and improved server sizes from our most recent data. 615 Light 1,441 Standard 2,263 Heavy 3,408 Very Heavy 3,527 Full 3. Only assess the destination servers. I don't trust the pop estimates for the non-destination servers. This would be the normal method going forward. Thoughts? Commentary? I'll also start a new workbook. The old one is getting really unweildy. Paige Edited June 27, 2012 by Scorpienne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symbea Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 I am terrible at grasping Maths so I vote for whichever you see as fit since you've been doing a good job so far. Really interesting to read! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leeoben Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Disagreeing with you isn't antagonism. You are correct in saying that; however, you are not disagreeing with Paige. If that was the case your on topic disagreement would be over the validity of the numbers, or how the numbers were calculated, or how the surveys are completed. As it stands now all you are doing is calling people flat out liars and that is antagonism. I have the right to disagree with you and your intentions and it doesn't violate any forum rules. This is again correct; however, when you posted your initial disagreement Paige responded with several links and sources to her post history for you to provide a basis for your argument. Since all you can find in those are posts stating she is doing the exact opposite of what you are claiming, you choose instead to respond that you needed no proof, that your opinion was the correct one, and that she along with many others in this thread are liars. Your earlier claim that these types of threads would not exist if the population was very healthy is true. That does not mean that every thread created about population is written by "doomsayers". As has been stated before the original threads were created when there was a documented drop in population and people were complaining about not having anyone to play with. A fine member of the community took her own personal time to come up with a system to let those interested know which servers were the most populated so they could choose to reroll. The point of those threads was not to say the game is dying get out now, it was to say hey there are people here if you want to play with them. People became interested in the numbers, and how they were calculated, so she updated on a regular basis. Now that the server mergers have happened and she had a following it didn't make sense to just stop posting the numbers, although if posts like yours continue she might since you are trying to twist her work into something it is not. If you want to take the numbers as doomsaying that is your opinion and you can have it, that also means I can have my opinion that you yourself are a doomsayer. That is the only reason I can think of that you would come into an otherwise positive thread (that talks about rising logons, and higher server caps, and growing populations) and try to spin everything into a negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakaii Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Yeah, the BB "looked funny". The # of 50s and the disposition of the 50s in the adv classes didn't seem to match up or make sense. Probably because at any given time there were 3-5 people on the entire server's republic side. Thanks for the Fatman data. I'm sure The Fatman is declining because people are playing their transferred mains instead of Fatman alts. Hopefully that will ease the load a bit. Paige No problem. I'll keep you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leeoben Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 (edited) Jeff, I know I *greatly* simplified your math. I'm trying to make it digestible by normal people. Does this make sense? That is fine. The only reason for the variable algebra in the first place was to show that I wasn't just making numbers up from one source that the method would in fact work no matter what the numbers were. What you wrote is exactly what I was doing. Edited June 26, 2012 by Leeoben Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakaii Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Disagreeing with you isn't antagonism. Do you seriously think that everyone should automatically agree with everything you post in a thread? As I said before, I read everything you wrote and because of the nature of your "work," I don't agree with or believe you. That is not antagonism. I have the right to disagree with you and your intentions and it doesn't violate any forum rules. Apples and oranges. Politics in this country doesn't measure the USA's "success" or "failure" on population, and there's a strong case to be made that too high a population is as much a sign of failure as too low a population, and that's not even considering the current economic climate. However, in an MMO success is only measured by high subscriber numbers, which translates directly into profits. And with Bioware being a company, profits are all that matter. The two do not compare. Stop trying to redeem your original post. If you gracefully admitted that you were wrong, or just stopped posting, all would be forgiven. The fact that you keep insisting they're doomsayers and pulling random insults out of your *** is pathetic. Not to mention it's the exact opposite of what they're saying. If you had read the ENTIRE thread, or just had better reading comprehension, you would know that Scorpienne said: New numbers are up and exciting! We've got a continued climb in population... we're up to 66,996 estimated concurrent logins. The destination servers, as expected are still zooming up in average logins per server. Total logins keeps skyrocketing. We've added another 4k logins and the estimated concurrent logins is 74,402. This represents a population of 27,064 on destination servers (36% of the total estimated logins) and 47,3383 on origin servers (64% of the total estimated logins). Now. Kindly be polite, or go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sanxxx Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 3. Only assess the destination servers. I don't trust the pop estimates for the non-destination servers. Paige I think this makes sense, the variability in them is to great to make any reasonable estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnakeCL Posted June 26, 2012 Share Posted June 26, 2012 Clipped Sounds good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thyferra Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 (edited) Are we still assuming that only 10 - 20 % of a total available (time that could be spend playing the game) server population logs in at any given time? With that in mind would it be ok to say that a server that peaks full (full with a queue) and full is somewhere around 4000 users (lets assume it is 4000) logged in for that server, that this server has a total population of 20000 - 40000? At a median of 30000. If that number is true for every destination and aussie server (and i know it is not some are higher some are lower) that would result in 810000 total users. If you take that number and try to place that many players on 217 servers evenly and assume that only 10% logs in that would result in 373 players on any given server at peak. We know that many peeople switched servers before the merge already so some servers where ghost towns and other had a healthy pop. TLDR A pop around 800k does not seem that far off. Edited June 27, 2012 by Thyferra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpienne Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 Are we still assuming that only 10 - 20 % of a total available (time that could be spend playing the game) server population logs in at any given time? I've seen 5% to 40% as guesses to the ratio of logins to subscribers, but I have no information. Some posters have said that some other games run 5%-10%... but I can't cite that number and I don't endorse it. In the grand scheme of things, I don't care about the # of subscribers as long as it's enough to keep the game alive on EA's accounting software. Logins is more interesting to me. Having said all that, your estimates of subscriber pop are as reasonable as anything else, but you could be off by -50% to +500% and it would probably still look reasonable to me. Paige Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arlbo_Nabbins Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 (edited) Are we still assuming that only 10 - 20 % of a total available (time that could be spend playing the game) server population logs in at any given time?. 10-15% of the peak population number seems to be the most common range for MMOS (after the initial rush of release when people do play more often and for longer). But without actual activity figures there is no way of knowing what a particular game runs at. The link in the spoiler has hard evidence that shows that active accounts are pretty much 10 times the peak online number (115k). http://forum.worldoftanks.eu/index.php?/topic/65256-unofficial-eu-server-statistics/ Edited June 27, 2012 by Arlbo_Nabbins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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