Subs down 25%

[DarthVindictus]

Let me ask you this. Did you play the GW2 beta? and did you watch the Manifesto? I did both. I would have to say judging by the beta, everything they said in the Manifesto was in the game, so I wasn't surprised by how the beta was and what was in it, really other then not being finished the game is exactly how Arenanet has been advertising it. Would you agree?

 

For SWTOR I was lead to believe I was getting a KOTOR themed MMO, but instead I got a KOTOR themed single player game with a small chance of multiplayer.

 

Yup, I've been tracking GW2 since 2007, not a lot of info out before 2009 though, I knew what to expect and looked for it, and got a few pleasant surprises along the way.

 

It's been a week, and it feels like it's been much longer

 

Anyway.. about TOR.. my hype for it died down as the years went on I stopped looking at TOR information because each bit of it was more and more disappointing from the game I wanted it to be.. but I got offered to do beta and my reaction was "This isn't as bad as I thought it'd be"

 

That's it.

 

I'd lowered the bar enough that what it was had become acceptable.

[JeramieCrowe]

Heh, i hate to disagree, but there were MANY times SWTOR Devs got snarky about how they were going to revolutionize MMOs and took stabs at WoW and other MMOs.

 

SWTOR Devs? No, they didn't. EA did, not BioWare. In fact, BioWare said the complete opposite of EA: that they were not trying to kill WoW, that the only step forward in MMOs they're doing is story. They were even upfront about wanting to get the "typical" MMO feature sets into the game.

 

EA is the one that took pokes at Blizzard and got snarky.

[BJWyler]

Daniel Erickson of course lied, they already said in q&A they dont want to merge servers. Losing subs would be a good indication they need to. People want server merges cause of dead server he says its alright its healthy. So thats why they lost over 400 thousand subs cause of the bs bioware keeps throwing at people, it gets old after a while.

 

They said server mergers were not going to be the primary focus - the character transfers are, because of the Legacy system and the complications that would have. They also said, however, that mergers were still on the table for the future if necessary. They lost 400K subs because players hear only what they want to hear, and generally ignore any factual evidence that contradicts their own beliefs.

 

BJ

[JeramieCrowe]

Elder Scrolls has just been announced and already there is a brewing controversy from those who wanted them to stick to single-player RPG and those interested in Bethesda's attempt at an MMO. The same thing happened with SWTOR and those who really wanted KOTOR 3 instead. I am very interested to see what they come up with, but it will be a battle for them and those loyal to their established lines.

 

I think they would have been better off making a co-op instead of an MMO. The every growing apathy and dislike for the overdone Tolkien-like fantasy genre as a whole is going to bite them in the you-know-what.

[CrunkShizzle]

Had they learned FROM their other MMO Warhammer (funny thing is i heard same team made SWTOR also made Warhammer)

 

the pvp team came from warhammer

[CrunkShizzle]

Quote: Originally Posted by Cassidan

Elder Scrolls has just been announced and already there is a brewing controversy from those who wanted them to stick to single-player RPG and those interested in Bethesda's attempt at an MMO. The same thing happened with SWTOR and those who really wanted KOTOR 3 instead. I am very interested to see what they come up with, but it will be a battle for them and those loyal to their established lines.

 

i was more excited about elder scrolls mmo before i heard it wasnt gonna be skyrim

[DarthVindictus]

You know if Bioware did the following or some of the following:

 

Had they not say FU to pvpers by taking our rated pvp HOURS before patch 1.2

Had they launched with less servers

Had they added transfers or merged the dead servers

Had they added Xserver LFG/Xserver PVP

Had they learned FROM their other MMO Warhammer (funny thing is i heard same team made SWTOR also made Warhammer)

 

If those were done or some, i am sure sub numbers would have gone up.

Many people i know unsubbed for bad pvp or low pop servers (i unsubbed cause of my dead server)

 

The cancelling of Ranked WZ's was a huge facepalm... I wasn't even really looking forward to that because i think PVP in this game is a joke (PVP stat that makes you better at PVP inherently = automatically makes PVP a joke).. but I know it means a lot to other people and was something they were looking forward to. For them to pull it like that and it's still not out.... that's bait and switch. You don't just let that slide.

[GothicSaint]

1.3 mill active subscribers doesn't even seem like a drop to me. You have to figure alot of people cancelled as soon as their free 30 days started. Some of those will resub for sure when their free time runs out.

 

I see the crate of rose colored glasses have been distributed evenly through out the forums.

 

Mine were broken when I got them but the Tech department swears they will be fixed in the next patch

 

1.3 " Active" Subs does not really explain why most servers are underpopulated and empty feeling.

 

That active word is a tricky sucker aint it?

[Darth_Vampirius]

Patch 1.2 has completely flopped.

[RicoFrost]

I have no doubt that right now they are pulling their heading together asking themselves how can we fix this how can we turn this around and give the people what they want. Thats why people are leaving cause they done have want they want, rated ware zone , Looking For Instance tool and so on....

[Blackardin]

You should not support such a simplistic view of the economics behind a major project.

 

We were discussing investment theory and practice, not the economics of a particular project there Yoda. ;p

Edited May 8, 2012 by Blackardin

[Grevlin]

Okay, I've got a little bit of background in economics/finance, so I'm going to infodump in the hopes that it's helpful. I fully expect to be flamed for this, but the past week has driven me mildly insane. So stuff it.

 

 

 

The development costs of SWtOR are, frankly, irrelevant to the decision of whether or not to keep it running. The dev costs are what is called a 'sunk' or unrecoverable cost. Costs that cannot be recovered are left out of the decision to maintain or shut down an operation. That leaves the cost of keeping the game running, what is referred to as the marginal cost. So long as the marginal return is greater than or equal to the marginal cost, they will keep the game running. Projected returns are what determine which projects to fund, not so much which ones to keep running. Once it's going, it's a matter of MC=MR. And, according to the shareholder report itself, SWtOR is still far from that point.

 

"Our Q1 non-GAAP digital revenue will continue to grow year-over-year, particularly given the

benefit of a full quarter of Star Wars: The Old Republic, and continued momentum in

microtransactions and digital services. This quarter, we expect to launch 11 digital titles and one

packaged good title. "

 

"The 143% growth in subscriptions, advertising and other revenue was driven by the

December launch of Star Wars: The Old Republic. "

 

"Star Wars: The Old Republic now has 1.3 million subscribers, with a much higher mix of

ongoing credit card consumers, but on a lower absolute number of subs. The service is

stable, profitable and we have strong plans to grow it in fiscal 13."

 

"Star Wars: The Old Republic was the most successful subscription MMO launch in history

and is now firmly established as the #2 MMO in the west. The service is extremely strong

on the operations level."

 

"Headcount – As of March, our headcount was roughly 9,200 with about 70% of that in R&D,

and we expect to increase total headcount to 9,700 by the end of fiscal 13. "

 

Considering that they still have quite a few possible things they could do to reduce MC if necessary (reduce # of active servers, trim less profitable staff members, reduce development of new content, etc), and it certainly doesn't seem like these are the actions of a company desperately trying to keep the game alive.

 

2. Stocks and Accounting (Translation: tl;dr ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!!!!!)

 

Yeah, I know, everyone hates this part. But here it is: linky

 

This is the series of slides that came with the shareholders' meeting. Now, you'll notice that the end there contains something that'll knock you out faster than a lethal dose of Ambien- Ledgers. Now, what we want to look at is a section called 'operating expenses' under the Q4 FY12 & Q4 FY11 slides. What might give us a clue as to the ratio between marginal cost & marginal revenue is the second column there, which is the percentage of total revenue of the expense. There's a 10 point drop in the percentage of revenue used for operating expenses. Now this doesn't directly tell us SWtOR's specific MC/MR relationship, but taken with the above evidence from the stockholders' reports, it doesn't tell the story of a game on her last legs.

 

Finally, I'd like to point out something that others may not have noticed- EA's stock repurchasing initiative. Now, when corporations make a profit, the decision is between reinvestment or paying dividends. Stock repurchasing technically falls under the former category, but it's more or less a company becoming a shareholder of itself (which could lead to an amusing recursive paradox if you're as pathetic a geek as I, but anyhoo). It has to do this with money it could use to invest in other projects/capital (increasing the (par) value of the stock) or pay dividends, so purchasing stock in itself doesn't confer a whole lot of benefit to the shareholders. Because of this, a company will usually refrain from doing so except for a specific condition- significantly undervalued stock. They'll buy the stock at the undervalued price and sell it back later when the price rises back to its normal value. This is in lieu of merging stocks, which is what companies in dire straits are more prone to doing.

 

Now, it's quite possible that they're just posturing in the hopes that investors will reach that conclusion and buy up, but they risk incurring a loss by doing so (particularly at such high amounts: "EA repurchased 27.7 million shares for $529 million through March 31, 2012, and as of

the call, the $600 million share repurchase program has been completed."). "What do you mean a loss? They could just sell the stock at the value they bought it and be no worse for wear." Well, to explain that, I'd have to go a little more into finance, and I'm about to pass out. Let's just say that there's a time-value of money, an opportunity cost for holding it and time-preference. Whatever you decide to do with your money, the 'opportunity cost' of doing so is whatever else you could have done with it at the time. Any profits EA could have made from putting their retained earnings into other developments instead of repurchasing stock would be lost. If you could put them into the same projects later, you're still earning your profits later & more slowly.

 

(tl;dr for this section): They could be faking, but the complications of doing so make it rather unlikely.

 

(tl;dr for whole post): The sky's not falling. The game's not failing. EA's not doing poorly. They aren't disappointed with or planning to dismantle SWtOR. You don't like the game? Fine. Nobody's forcing you to. You want to see it succeed & beat WoW's subscriber count? That's very noble of you. But doomsday predictions are a dime a dozen around here. If you want to be taken seriously, back your statements up with evidence. As far as I can tell, there's no evidence in the accounts to support claims that either SWtOR or EA are in trouble. There's no dip in net or gross revenues, no significant increase in operating costs, and no behavior on the part of Bioware or EA that would indicate that the game's in trouble. At best, SWtOR has fewer subscribers than projected, but that indicates unearned potential profits rather than serious peril (which would explain why EA's actions seem to be dedicated to bringing more attention to content updates and free trials). Now, can we try to be constructive?

 

Didn't think so. :-P

 

PROTIP: Read entire shareholders' report, press release, & accompanying materials before beating your chest. Sure, you might ruffle a few feathers at first, but it'll only last until someone insane enough to wade through the financial BS comes along. You know what they say; Truth is far more convoluted and less interesting than the preferred fiction.

[RobNightfall]

i see this game losing a lot more subs, i guess we will wait and see, but i a not surprised, this game was not designed with true mmoers in mind

 

Gotta agree with this. It feels like a good single player game, and that's it. I enjoyed the class story, but the rest of the game has gone from bad to worse to godsawful, especially the PvP.

 

Edit: And if Grevlin's post is right (I don't know enough about economics to judge, but it looks legit), then EA has gotten their money's worth and they're earning more. Which leads me to wonder if the game is being targeted for a specific niche market of players that don't want a lot of the things standard MMO players are looking for. Not so much catering to us dirty casuals, as the hardcore players like to say, but to people who want a very structured single player experience with a wider variety of cooperative options than is normally available on single player games with online grouping bonus content.

Edited May 8, 2012 by RobNightfall

[JeramieCrowe]

I see the crate of rose colored glasses have been distributed evenly through out the forums.

 

Mine were broken when I got them but the Tech department swears they will be fixed in the next patch

 

1.3 " Active" Subs does not really explain why most servers are underpopulated and empty feeling.

 

That active word is a tricky sucker aint it?

 

Actually, it does. 1.3 million spread across as many server as there are = low-pops. That's why transfer/shut-downs are likely happening to cull the number of servers (which, for the love of gawd people, is NOT a MERGE!!!)

[DarthVindictus]

SWTOR Devs? No, they didn't. EA did, not BioWare. In fact, BioWare said the complete opposite of EA: that they were not trying to kill WoW, that the only step forward in MMOs they're doing is story. They were even upfront about wanting to get the "typical" MMO feature sets into the game.

 

EA is the one that took pokes at Blizzard and got snarky.

 

Bioware isn't innocent in all of this, they're just as bad as EA now. Bioware cared a lot more about their fans in 2003 than they do in 2012, I can tell you that.

 

When Bioware announced origin exclusivity for ME3, PC fans outraged, Bioware reacted with an attitude of "go ahead, don't buy our game, you won't be missed, we're a household name now, we're gonna get the call of duty audience, we don't need you anymore, you'll be replaced"

 

That's when my respect for Bioware completely evaporated.

[JeramieCrowe]

Patch 1.2 has completely flopped.

 

Yeah, completely. That's why I go to Coruscant and see 70 people there, which have got to be alt-rollers since subs have decreased. Yeah. Completely flopped.

 

[CrunkShizzle]

this game was not designed with true mmoers in mind

 

it was designed with casuals in mind

[bennygold]

the pvp team came from warhammer

 

Well that makes a lot of sense then..

[CrunkShizzle]

Yeah, completely. That's why I go to Coruscant and see 70 people there, which have got to be alt-rollers since subs have decreased. Yeah. Completely flopped.

 

 

i wouldnt say it flopped,but i can say.if things dont turn around soon,i doubt this game will have much of a population come 1.3

[bennygold]

it was designed with casuals in mind

 

I am certain that BW wanted to capture the players from the other big MMO currently

[Kthx]

That active word is a tricky sucker aint it?

 

It's the de facto standard in the MMO industry. You may not like the definition, but it is the standard.

[JeramieCrowe]

Bioware isn't innocent in all of this, they're just as bad as EA now. Bioware cared a lot more about their fans in 2003 than they do in 2012, I can tell you that.

 

When Bioware announced origin exclusivity for ME3, PC fans outraged, Bioware reacted with an attitude of "go ahead, don't buy our game, you won't be missed, we're a household name now, we're gonna get the call of duty audience, we don't need you anymore, you'll be replaced"

 

That's when my respect for Bioware completely evaporated.

 

Let me clarify: BioWare Austin.

[KonohaFlash]

Yeah, completely. That's why I go to Coruscant and see 70 people there, which have got to be alt-rollers since subs have decreased. Yeah. Completely flopped.

 

 

70 people in coruscant? That is a huge feat in a MMO.

[JeramieCrowe]

i wouldnt say it flopped,but i can say.if things dont turn around soon,i doubt this game will have much of a population come 1.3

 

Yep, that's what I mentioned earlier. So, awesome, TOR has managed to actually keep more subs than other MMOs tend to, percentage-wise.

 

Starting right now, though, is what will determine where this game goes. BioWare needs to cull servers and add endgame IMMEDIATELY if they hope to create an atypical MMO trend of increasing subs. Most MMOs don't increase from here.

[Dezzi]

Are you happy about the hype machine tearing GW2 a new one?

 

It lived up to and exceeded the hype for me, but what does that have to do with SWTOR's poor numbers?