terminova Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 No other MMO spent $200MM and six years in development. That's the problem. With that kind of red ink over their heads, I can't imagine anyone being "very, very happy" with flat growth just two months out from launch. I'd feel better about it if the CEO had said how many boxes they sold in February, as that would give a picture of their retention rates. How do you know how much MMOs spend developing games and how long they take to develop them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dezzi Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 (edited) How do you know how much MMOs spend developing games and how long they take to develop them? It's more of a consensus of opinion among media outlets. Edited March 9, 2012 by Dezzi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drewser Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 (edited) How much did the game cost, before release? That has to be paid back to show a true profit. That money is spent and gone - so again if they need 500k to break even they are now banking roughly $18m a month. True, we don't know yet if that will last long enough plus the box sales to turn a true profit. We don't even know what they made on box sales, but I'd have to think with 2m+ boxes sold and 40% sold via origin, they had to bank at least 90-100m already without any sub money counted. Edited March 9, 2012 by Drewser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akirator Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Most outlets report it took them around 6 years and anywhere between 100 million to 300 million. It's not so much fact as it is a consensus of opinion. I think the question was more how does he know how much time and money every other MMO spent, not SWTOR, as that is pretty much "common knowledge" as it were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dayfax Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 (edited) How much of the $200m do you think they recouped already? One of their execs commented something like, we would be doing quite well at 1m subs. So I have to think since they are 70% over that right now, they are happy. Guesstimating, I'd say less than half their initial costs. This doesn't include infrastructure, CS, marketing, or any new development. That's only part of the issue. If they sold 110K copies, that means that the advantage of bringing in those new players was completely wiped out by other players quitting the game (because total subs are the same month-on-month). Given that box sales always drop month-on-month after release, this means they won't have enough new players next month to cover the deficit, and if that trend continues, we'll see a gradual downward spiral of subscriptions. Edited March 9, 2012 by Dayfax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarfux Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 I think in the long run, it will get more and more subs and will keep growing. Who knows if it will get wow numbers. Did blizzard think they would one day achieve over 10 mill? no...so who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dayfax Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 How do you know how much MMOs spend developing games and how long they take to develop them? Because $200MM is an obscene amount of money in the videogame industry. This is a record breaking amount to spend on an MMO. For others, there's news articles & Wikipedia. A half dozen Google searches will tell you that most MMO's spent $50-100MM on development and took ~4 years. See also: Star Wars: The Old Republic -- the costliest game of all time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKMaster Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Anyone can predict the future. They may not be right but they can make a guess. It's fine that you enjoy it, but with the changes I have seen thus far coming in 1.2 and the botched legacy system I expect it will grow stale for a great many of us who have come to expect more from mmos. You must be new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drewser Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Guesstimating, I'd say less than half their initial costs. This doesn't include infrastructure, CS, marketing, or any new development. That's only part of the issue. If they sold 110K copies, that means that the advantage of bringing in those new players was completely wiped out by other players quitting the game (because total subs are the same month-on-month). Given that box sales always drop month-on-month after release, this means they won't have enough new players next month to cover the deficit, and if that trend continues, we'll see a gradual downward spiral of subscriptions. Bad assumption. None of us know if the announcements of 1.2 will bring back subs, slow the unsub rate, create an uptick in box sales, etc... You also have to factor in the invite promotion, the product placement on Big Bang and anything else they are doing to boost sales that were not done last month. Also if we go by VG - sales were in a slight decline the last 3 weeks- 28K, 26k, 25k. They could still do right around 100k new sales if that trend remains the same through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zachajariah Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 You can complain all you want, but the man has spoken the truth. It's why me and my bro left anyway. If you quit why are you still here trolling the forums? Maybe you need a life? ... I know when I quit something I don't look back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pantheros Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 This predicting the future doesn't say anything. "At current rate we expect..." My bro and I extended our playtime in januari with a GC, which ends 20 march. He already quit, i'm quitting the 20th. And so are many more people on my server. Also can anyone tell me how it's possible the servers were heavy/full all the time during 1st month now all are low/standard even though EA claims there was no drop? Fairly simple explanation. They've stated many times that they drastically increased server capacity. What was "full" 2 months ago isn't so now. Also your anecdotes don't really prove anything. It's all water under the bridge anyway, there will undoubtedly be an influx of players with 1.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dayfax Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Bad assumption. None of us know if the announcements of 1.2 will bring back subs, slow the unsub rate, create an uptick in box sales, etc... You also have to factor in the invite promotion, the product placement on Big Bang and anything else they are doing to boost sales that were not done last month. Also if we go by VG - sales were in a slight decline the last 3 weeks- 28K, 26k, 25k. They could still do right around 100k new sales if that trend remains the same through March. That's a good point. A lot rides on their effectiveness of their promotions. But going by the old adage about how it's cheaper to retain a customer than get a new one, I'm slightly worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLonelyTusken Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Anyone can predict the future. They may not be right but they can make a guess. It's fine that you enjoy it, but with the changes I have seen thus far coming in 1.2 and the botched legacy system I expect it will grow stale for a great many of us who have come to expect more from mmos. How was the legacy system botched? It was planned to be this way since the beginning, everything else in 1.2 is a god send, there is just too much to count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freshtech Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 The saddest thing is that all the people crying out that the game will fail and die are helping fulfill their own prophecy. With such a barrage of predictions of doom, they are turning public opinion negative, convincing subscribers to quit the game and investors to take their money elsewhere. Then when the game dies, they will all say, "We told you so!" I guess I'm in the minority here, but I actually like the game and want to see it do well. It depresses me to see such predictions of failure because this is only serving to make the problems with the game worse by shrinking the game population, making it tougher for me to experience and enjoy all the features SWTOR has to offer. While everyone is entitled to their own opinion, and criticism from the player base is valuable in addressing problems in the game, simple expressions of hate are not constructive and only hurt gamers who are enjoying the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dayfax Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 (edited) +1 for naming your Sentinel "Musashi." Agree with your overall sentiment, too. Edited March 9, 2012 by Dayfax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terminova Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Because $200MM is an obscene amount of money in the videogame industry. This is a record breaking amount to spend on an MMO. For others, there's news articles & Wikipedia. A half dozen Google searches will tell you that most MMO's spent $50-100MM on development and took ~4 years. See also: Star Wars: The Old Republic -- the costliest game of all time? They have an obscene amount of money to spend, and I honestly don't think it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tergon Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Assuming 1.7M people bought box copies of the game at the minimum price of $60, that puts the company at around $110M off box sales (1.7M people x $60), more counting the collectors editions and digital deluxe. Lets say it stays at 1.7M for 2 months after the free month, (1.7M x $15 monthly x 2 months) tacks on another $60M....So assuming this all adds up, they are at approximately $170M/200M. If the game survives another month, anything after that will be profit, not taking into account current labor, production, operating costs. Honestly, things can't be looking that grim.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knockerz Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 (edited) I don't think investors would be happy with those numbers, growth is flat. And lets face it, with the money they spent developing this game they were hoping to take on WoW. Sure, they are number 2 right now but they will never match WoW numbers. WoW, even in its twilight is still more successful. You guys do realize that wow reports both their asian and western subscribers. First, their asian subscribers are pay to play and aren't realistically like their subscribers in the west. What I would be really interested in seeing wow's western subscriber numbers only and not combined their east with west subscribers since most of their profits come from their western subscribers. I don't particuarly like the way Blizzard spins their subscribers numbers especially their eastern base since they pay to play. If said player only plays once a month they count them as a subscriber even if they only played for one hour. Thus, I'm very skeptical about true profits wow makes over their east base subscribers. I'm really only interested in their western base subscribers and how much of a loss their western base has taken considering that is their most profitable client. I'm willing to bet, wow isn't doing too well considering most wow's western servers are ghost servers. The recent announcement with SoR indicates to me that Blizzard is getting more desperate to generate more revenue by luring ex-players since they aren't getting enough new subscribers to replace the ones that left. It's also not a good sign that MoP won't be out for months, which means a stale endgame for months, plus dragon soul mediocre raid. I doubt it dragon soul will hold out like icecrwon citadel did in woltk. Blizzard can only expect heavy western subscription losses due to lack of content for the next couple months until MoP comes out. Also like to point out wow's pvp is worst shape relative to pve. I expect losses when gw2 comes out. Edited March 9, 2012 by Knockerz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daluu Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Assuming 1.7M people bought box copies of the game at the minimum price of $60, that puts the company at around $110M off box sales (1.7M people x $60), more counting the collectors editions and digital deluxe. Lets say it stays at 1.7M for 2 months after the free month, (1.7M x $15 monthly x 2 months) tacks on another $60M....So assuming this all adds up, they are at approximately $170M/200M. If the game survives another month, anything after that will be profit, not taking into account current labor, production, operating costs. Honestly, things can't be looking that grim.... In December EA had a press release stating total investment in this game was over 500k, not 200k. AND you have to take into account the continued payment of all employees every month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knockerz Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Assuming 1.7M people bought box copies of the game at the minimum price of $60, that puts the company at around $110M off box sales (1.7M people x $60), more counting the collectors editions and digital deluxe. Lets say it stays at 1.7M for 2 months after the free month, (1.7M x $15 monthly x 2 months) tacks on another $60M....So assuming this all adds up, they are at approximately $170M/200M. If the game survives another month, anything after that will be profit, not taking into account current labor, production, operating costs. Honestly, things can't be looking that grim.... Pretty much the game has to make it to an expansion for the game to be very profitable since expansion don't cost as much to make and sell for the same amount as the original game. That's probably one reason wow has been very profitable. If any mmorpg can make it over the hump while more the less retain their player based to their first expansion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iRouven Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Wasn't it said that 500k subscribers would be enough to sustain this game? So if we are at almost 4x that number I guess we are in good shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knockerz Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 Wasn't it said that 500k subscribers would be enough to sustain this game? So if we are at almost 4x that number I guess we are in good shape Yes, I think the previous poster got it wrong. BW announced they only needed 500k to break even. I don't remember up to what month, but 500k is very viable, but doesn't look they are having trouble with that 500k considering at moment BW is holding at 1.7 million. If the game is growing as the op link states, then the game is in no trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Badlander Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 (edited) Yes this game doesn't go down because: 1) Casuals keep playing because they like the easy mode 2) People just want to play with glowsticks and that's all they care about in an MMO The people who actually came to play a good MMO, have all left or are about to. +1 for hitting the nail on the head. Unless rated WZ's improve the game a ton i know a ton of ppl that will be leaving. The game just gets plain boring and now that the casuals want to take any kind of incentive away from pvp..like armor well...... Edited March 9, 2012 by Badlander Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormie_sarge Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 +1 for hitting the nail on the head. Unless rated WZ's improve the game a ton i know a ton of ppl that will be leaving. The game just gets plain boring and now that the casuals want to take any kind of incentive away from pvp..like armor well...... Ya but there is no other MMO's out there that are better the SWTOR right now. Ya some people who play games in all their free time will get bored and will come back n such for a while. It all happens. PS for the love of all that is sane, do not say some certain other name MMO or the soon to be coming MMO killer are anything, they aren't, but will fill their own niches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Microwavegerbil Posted March 9, 2012 Share Posted March 9, 2012 I find it hilarious that the very first reply was a person stating that the numbers are going down despite that very plainly not being the case. Apparently the 1.5 million subs soon after launch is a greater number than 1.7 million and WAY higher than the predicted 2 million. This forum really does have the absolute worst set of trolls I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts