Are BW Liars?

[Bergitor]

The answer lies in a statistical law called The Law of Independant Probability. Where in two statistical out comes have no mathimatical bearing on one another. You have two BM bags, each with a 25% chance to contain a token, opening one bag where a random statistical outcome occurs will not in any way affect the roll on the second bag i.e. increasing or decreasing its probability of a desired out come.

[therebellion]

Not sure why people have a hard time understanding the wording on how to get a BM comm. It's 25% chance to get it which means you have a 1/4 chance to get that token and if you're unlucky you hit that 3/4 which means no BM tokens. Ratio is completely different than percent chances. Edited March 3, 2012 by therebellion

[Aetou]

Bring on the hate... I'm currently 10 from 25. For every unlucky person there is a lucky one, it's just the unlucky ones are more inclined to whine about it than the lucky ones are to brag.

[Quantum]

RNG is like magnets, nobody seems to know how the kriff it works.

 

 

Magnets work because the electrons in the atoms of the material are oriented in a uniform pattern. This polarizes the material generating a magnetic field.

 

Tada, that's how magnets work...

 

Now as to RNG, it's working right, as has been stated, a Ratio != Percentage.

 

I don't care how large a sample size you take you can not use that to form a base line when dealing with a theoretical infinite quantity. There are no limits to how many BM bags can be present in the system (how many the game can spawn), 25% of infinity = infinity.

Edited March 3, 2012 by Quantum

[cbrmel]

Well now that ive been bm for over a month, and only have my implants, ear, wrist, relics, and main. I think im safe to say i have the worse luck with bags. I do dailies and weeklies everyday. So it seems that ive got way under a 10 percent drop rate. Ive literally only seen about a half a dozen comms and im starting to get very upset.

 

The guildie who hit bm with me the same day was full bm last week. This random **** needs to go when they release war lord gear. If you commit endless hours of play, you should at least have something to show for it.

 

At least make a bm bag that can be purchased. Not a fan of letting ONLY luck control my gear progression. Anyone else have this low drop rate?

[Halofax]

I'm 4/8 of BM tokens.

[Tyranoc]

You guys dont get comms in every bag?

 

Sucks to be you!

 

Maybe if you cry enough on the forums they will just give BM to you like they have with Champ

[EternalFinality]

Fun fact, after opening 4 BM bags the chance that you won't get even one token is ~32%

[Bergitor]

Fun fact, after opening 4 BM bags the chance that you won't get even one token is ~32%

 

This is false, see previous post. The outcome of opening one bag is completely independant of opening any other. Your base chance never changes, though the statistical likely hood will slant in your favor the more you open. The base % of 25 never fluctuates.

 

This is may be a statistical likely hood, but it is not a proof. And will very, inevitabley, every 4 bags you open.

Edited March 3, 2012 by Bergitor

[Metalmac]

Eh.... I overthunk the hell out of what you said (impossibilities of separating luck/math in a probability system)... Yeah a "luck" based system is not so fun/fair a system to deal with. It'd be a lot more fair to do a fixed ratio ie 1 token every bag, all gear takes 4 tokens. This guarantees 1:4 ie ratio/no luck. HOWEVER its your 2nd point that is flawed.

 

While people might not WANT a luck based system.... luck based systems actually motivate people far more than ratio systems. Look at casinos, slot machines specifically. If you figure each next bag "could be the one" you strive for it harder than if you knew "ah **** it, I just got loot, this bag will be bogus" Basically its a constant carrot-on-a-stick BW is hanging over your head to keep you running on the treadmill.

 

 

 

Well PERSONAlLY I do not ever gamble so I am now swayed you your thoughts.

 

Nor should I be swayed as I believe in earned gear not luck of the draw as earned gear.

[Lasarith]

RNG is like magnets, nobody seems to know how the kriff it works.

 

I Understand magnets very very well.

[Dhovakhiin]

I don't really know what are you on about. Each bag has a 1 out of 4 chance to drop a commendation. It has nothing to do with looking at 100 or 1000 bags. A random number is generated and if it equals to whatever number that grants you a commendation, you get it. I'm not into statistics but RNG ir RANDOM. It's 25% chance to drop, but that doesn't mean you will get it once every 4 bags. And really you have no way of checking it unless you take a look at the code. Unless you wanna argue about how random RNG really is but thats not what the thread is about I guess.

[jizerai]

This is false, see previous post. The outcome of opening one bag is completely independant of opening any other. Your base chance never changes, though the statistical likely hood will slant in your favor the more you open. The base % of 25 never fluctuates.

 

This is may be a statistical likely hood, but it is not a proof. And will very, inevitabley, every 4 bags you open.

 

I believe that the quoted wanted to say that the probability of receiving 1 token in 4 bags are 32%. Which, I believe, is wrong as well.

Edit: It would seem I didn't read the "not" in that sentence. I blame lack of sleep. My point still stands.

 

1-(1-0.25)^4 = 0.683... So, the chances are in fact, 68.3% to have received one token. That does not equate to you having a 68.3% chance of receiving one. Only that the probability of you receiving one token after 4 opened bags is such.

 

The chance of you receiving one, is in fact, 25% on every bag.

Edited March 4, 2012 by jizerai

[Shabob]

This is false, see previous post. The outcome of opening one bag is completely independant of opening any other. Your base chance never changes, though the statistical likely hood will slant in your favor the more you open. The base % of 25 never fluctuates.

 

This is may be a statistical likely hood, but it is not a proof. And will very, inevitabley, every 4 bags you open.

 

...

 

in one breath you're right in the next you're completely wrong

 

.75%^4 is 32% of not getting a commendation when you open 4 bags

 

If you don't believe me go back to school

[EternalFinality]

This is false, see previous post. The outcome of opening one bag is completely independant of opening any other. Your base chance never changes, though the statistical likely hood will slant in your favor the more you open. The base % of 25 never fluctuates.

 

This is may be a statistical likely hood, but it is not a proof. And will very, inevitabley, every 4 bags you open.

 

Yeah, no. Learn probability. After 4 chances, the chance that the 75% outcome occurs 4 times in a row is ~32%. That means that the chance that you do not get even 1 token after 4 bags is ~32%.

[diogolp]

My god, I feel dumber reading this thread.

 

First of all, for all the brainiacs trying to talk about "ratio vs percentage," you do understand that a percentage is a ratio, right?

25% is the same as 25/100.

 

What you are talking about is not ratio or percentage. What you are talking about is probability with or without replacement. In a system of probability without replacement each instance of a non-event increases the chance of the event. So imagine a bag with 4 colored balls inside, 3 blue and 1 red. Without replacement means that if you remove a blue one, you now have 2 blues and one red. Each following action without replacement means that eventually you know with certainty what the color of the last ball is. So if the BM box system was a probability without replacement, you would, with certainty, get a token every 4 bags.

 

 

But the random number generator works as a probability with replacement system. It is like every time you took a ball out of the bag, you replaced it before getting the next one. So the probability of getting something is independent between bags. With the law of large numbers, about 1/4 of all bags should contain tokens.

 

But given the number of people playing, a significant number of people will experience much lower number of drops than others. The chance of receiving 0 tokens in a week (16 bags) is around 1%. That means that if there are 10000 battlemasters, in a given week about 100 of those will receive 0 tokens. That chance of receiving just 1 token is about 5%, so some 500 people (out of 10000) will get just the one. And so on and so forth.

 

Which is why there are people like the OP complaining. So no, BW is not lying. But some of you trying to tell the op to go back and study statistics should do the same.

[Shabob]

My god, I feel dumber reading this thread.

 

First of all, for all the brainiacs trying to talk about "ratio vs percentage," you do understand that a percentage is a ratio, right?

25% is the same as 25/100.

 

What you are talking about is not ratio or percentage. What you are talking about is probability with or without replacement. In a system of probability without replacement each instance of a non-event increases the chance of the event. So imagine a bag with 4 colored balls inside, 3 blue and 1 red. Without replacement means that if you remove a blue one, you now have 2 blues and one red. Each following action without replacement means that eventually you know with certainty what the color of the last ball is. So if the BM box system was a probability without replacement, you would, with certainty, get a token every 4 bags.

 

 

But the random number generator works as a probability with replacement system. It is like every time you took a ball out of the bag, you replaced it before getting the next one. So the probability of getting something is independent between bags. With the law of large numbers, about 1/4 of all bags should contain tokens.

 

But given the number of people playing, a significant number of people will experience much lower number of drops than others. The chance of receiving 0 tokens in a week (16 bags) is around 1%. That means that if there are 10000 battlemasters, in a given week about 100 of those will receive 0 tokens. That chance of receiving just 1 token is about 5%, so some 500 people (out of 10000) will get just the one. And so on and so forth.

 

Which is why there are people like the OP complaining. So no, BW is not lying. But some of you trying to tell the op to go back and study statistics should do the same.

 

Yeah, and 500 people will get 15 tokens and so on and so forth, they aren't whining though...

 

The OP is just being a cry baby, and people are mostly resonding to the tards that say stuff like I only got 1 out of 100.

[Seanimus]

I'd kill for 25% personally

 

I'd say I've gotten 1 BM comm in about 10 bags, possibly less. Been BM for two months...

 

still not finished...

[rzrknight]

BW says: 25% Chance of a BM Commendation

 

Is it:

 

25% of the total number of BM Bags ever opened

 

Or

 

25% of the total of BM bags I open as an individual player

 

What is the intention from BW?

 

What?

 

Is 25% of EVERY SINGLE bag you open , each of them got this 1/4 chance to drop a comm.

 

Some people are lucky and get many , some are unlucky and get few.

 

Still each bag got 25% INDIVIDUALLY of dropping a comm.

[rzrknight]

I'd kill for 25% personally

 

I'd say I've gotten 1 BM comm in about 10 bags, possibly less. Been BM for two months...

 

still not finished...

 

A person need 20 BM comms for 1 full set.

 

now , we get at most 16 bags a week atm.

 

if you consider 25% it means 4 bags per week would drop comms.

 

5 weeks is the ... standard time to get 1 full BM set.

[drosalion]

BW says: 25% Chance of a BM Commendation

 

Is it:

 

25% of the total number of BM Bags ever opened

 

Or

 

25% of the total of BM bags I open as an individual player

 

What is the intention from BW?

 

 

Neither - it is each individual bag has a 25% chance to have a BM comm.

 

To look at it another way, each individual bag has a 75% chance of failure.

 

Statistically speaking, it is quite likely that ~25% of the BM bags ever opened by anyone would have a comm, just because of the sheer number of bags that have opened. As for an individual, it is possible to open 100 bags and never get a comm (unlikely, but possible). Likewise it is possible to open 100 bags and get a comm in every single one.

Edited March 4, 2012 by drosalion

[Ssfbistimg]

Battlemaster box/bag is said to have a 25% chance of containing a Battlemaster Commendation. If it is 25% of the total box/bag opened on every server world wide from the first one opened to date, would that make them liars?

 

I know by agreeing to play this game we pretty much gave BW full control to do whatever they please, but still it just feels wrong to me that they seem to have deceived the customer.

 

An entire week of doing both dailies and 0 Commendations.

 

If they did intend the 25% to be per player then why not simply have a forced 1 in 4 program? Basically guaranteeing that the first 3 are empty and the 4th has a Commendation?

 

The new advertised on PTR system of 1000/1000 for 1 BM commendation will still have the Box/Bag system or not?

 

its not 1 out of 4 bags. it is each bag has 1 in 4 chance to contain one. you could open 100 bags and not get one. doesn't mean bioware lied. just means you had bad luck.

Edited March 4, 2012 by Ssfbistimg