NOW = 1.7 Million Active Subscribers | 3 Months from now = Guess What

[Maigrey]

These are anecdotes, not a statistically valid sample. Here is what happens:

 

- Player A: OMG, there were only 60 people on Republic fleet last night.

- Player B: I don't know what you are talking about, on my server, there were 120 people on Fleet.

 

or

 

- Player A: OMG, the servers sit on light/standard all the time.

- Player B: Here is a screen shot from last night showing 23 servers on heavy and 2 on very heavy

 

Outcome: Player A ignores Player B (confirmation bias).

 

there could be 200 people in fleet that is still almost no one IMO.

 

 

if the game was healthy I would expect about 500 people.

[Febibi]

My rough estimate is 2.5M Active Subscribers

What's yours?

 

subs are down under 300k current...EA is trying to get people to make trial accounts to count as active subs and raise numbers before their next release on numbers...thats why they are quiet...mmo history continues with companies lieing to investors

[Vahzl]

My love of any video game is directly proportional to the amount of faceless other people playing it on everyone elses realms.

 

The same reason I hate Twilight and every time I come out of a cinema I say the book is better, no matter if I have read it or not.

 

subs are down under 300k current...EA is trying to get people to make trial accounts to count as active subs and raise numbers before their next release on numbers...thats why they are quiet...mmo history continues with companies lieing to investors

 

Source? (the filing cabinet in your colon doesn't count as a valid source by the way)

Edited March 26, 2012 by Vahzl

[Febibi]

there could be 200 people in fleet that is still almost no one IMO.

 

 

if the game was healthy I would expect about 500 people.

 

500 in prime time is low....healthy would be about 1000 min on each fleet with 2-3 phases maxed in ilum.....and others scattered around the planets....the game on most servers cant break 2000 combined total....dead game,,,it SUCKS becasue we all wanted a success but EA pushed the release to meet a date rather than completion.

[Programma]

the game is dying real fast because it fails as an mmo,the numbers dont mean anything because everyone can see the players leaving in droves or going to the last severs with players.

[Febibi]

the game is dying real fast because it fails as an mmo,the numbers dont mean anything because everyone can see the players leaving in droves or going to the last severs with players.

 

so its warhammer again?

[Azzras]

subs are down under 300k current...EA is trying to get people to make trial accounts to count as active subs and raise numbers before their next release on numbers...thats why they are quiet...mmo history continues with companies lieing to investors

 

Wow, you continue to try and sell fiction as fact?

 

Sad.

[Devlonir]

The ME3 ending(s) and the intense rage it has caused among the playerbase. I never played any of the ME games, but some of the guys I know do, and they described it to me, and linked me the video showing all the endings played at the same time beside each other, and even I got annoyed at BW for it.

 

The 1.2 issue is the bait and switch/false advertising feeling about some of the features a lot of player have, and the continued lack of response to the population issues. People are not happy with BW/EA right now.

 

About ME3: Objectively it is a response that has everyone who has experience respond to it in a strong way, emotionally invested in the franchise and the storyline and it has people talking about it all over the board, both in good and bad ways.

An ending that nobody talks about is a failed ending, an ending that has everyone talking about it is, in a way, a very succesful one.

I am not saying it is good, just that it is not a complete fail.

 

About 1.2 false advertising: That is just people reading more in what was said and making assumptions out of vague statements. To quote much wiser men: "Assumption is the mother of all f***-ups." and "When you assume, you make an @ss of you and me."

[Lundli]

subs are down under 300k current...EA is trying to get people to make trial accounts to count as active subs and raise numbers before their next release on numbers...thats why they are quiet...mmo history continues with companies lieing to investors

 

There has probably never been more then ~300k concurrent users, not counting the first weeks, what's so shocking about that?

Edited March 26, 2012 by Lundli

[Frostvein]

I think they are between 1.5 and 2 mil.

[Febibi]

There has probably never been more then ~300k concurrent users, not counting the first weeks, what's so shocking about that?

 

nothing...just like a company lieing about numbers is not shocking

[Devlonir]

500 in prime time is low....healthy would be about 1000 min on each fleet with 2-3 phases maxed in ilum.....and others scattered around the planets....the game on most servers cant break 2000 combined total....dead game,,,it SUCKS becasue we all wanted a success but EA pushed the release to meet a date rather than completion.

 

To use a tired old mem: Fail assumption is fail.

 

I will just quote myself from an earlier thread to show how wrong assuming 500 on fleet is a low and bad number is by using logic and math.. This was a response to someone saying 11 people on Hoth must have meant his server was dead and nobody played anymore.

 

My personal experience from a Standard level server is also that most levelling planets have around 10-15 people online. Let's take that 11 to start with.

So.. there are 17 planet zones, all used for questing which could have, on average, that amount of people.

Then there are, at any time, on average, around 100 people on fleet.

Then there are, at any time, on average, about 10 people on their ship

Then there are, at any time, on average about 2 or 3 warzones going on, 8 players each.

Then there are, at any time, on average let's say 10 flashpoint groups going on (a low guess, but hey.. i dont want to be too biased).

And then there are two sides.

 

So that means, my standard, average server will have about:

 

( (11 x 17) + 100 + 10 + (3x8) + (10x4) ) x2 = 722 players online on my average server. The population feels low but is very much spread out.

 

Then there are (quick count) around 220 servers that could have the same averages.. leading to a number of (on average from my own observations) 158.840 people online on average at any one time.

 

Seeing how active players play on average 4 hours a day as said by BW themselves. That means I need to multiply that by 6 to get amount of active players. This leads me to around 950.000 active players playing that game.

 

So.. I guess.. running around one of the 17 levelling areas with 11 other people on your own faction around you means there are almost a million people playing this game.

 

I realise my numbers aren't definite.. and I realise the game feels empty. But bringing it up to actual scale shows that 11 per Hoth per server per side means a healthy population in general.

 

So.. sorry.. and you can bash all you want but the numbers I used are even low compared to many actual observations done. I just like guessing low to ensure an unbiased calculation.

 

Fleet is less than 15% of an actual server's population in game at any time in most situations. So fleet numbers may seem low.. server numbers are high.

 

The game just feels empty because everyone is so spread out. That is the design error of this game.

 

Also remember that people playing the game does not equal active subscriptions. There are always non-actively playing subscribers in every subscription based game.

Edited March 26, 2012 by Devlonir

[Azzras]

nothing...just like a company lieing about numbers is not shocking

 

LOL, if they lied about the numbers then they will have legal action taken as they would have broken laws.

 

Try harder.

[Febibi]

To use a tired old mem: Fail assumption is fail.

 

I will just quote myself from an earlier thread to show how wrong assuming 500 on fleet is a low and bad number is by using logic and math..

 

 

 

So.. sorry

 

Except you have to subtract 66% to get more accurate numbers You numbers are old estimates prior to 60 day time cards running out.

 

And your estimates are high and counting alts

 

As someone who tracks these things in games and enjoys playing the numbers... you should know your numbers are on the high end and aged.

 

Redo your math to current numbers please and try again

 

LOL, if they lied about the numbers then they will have legal action taken as they would have broken laws.

 

Try harder.

 

 

No there are legal ways around numbers and trial accounts are a common method, as well as free trial and weekend passes....if they get a trial sub once in a month, that still counts for the month or quarter.

 

So if you have 300k subs + 100k trial = 400k subs reported...even if those trial never pay a single cent or become active subs. Thats how to lie about numbers in the investment world. Blizzard has been doing it for years.

Edited March 26, 2012 by Febibi

[Lundli]

nothing...just like a company lieing about numbers is not shocking

 

Sorry but I don't see the lie, lets say they do have 1.7M subs.. at a guess that would probably add up to more or less 300k concurrent users. Feel free to correct me if I can be proven wrong.

[Goretzu]

Wow, you continue to try and sell fiction as fact?

 

Sad.

 

I dunno, that would be a cunning way to raise offical sub numbers. SoE did something similar (well they did several things similar in fact over the years).

[Kthx]

The 1.2 issue is the bait and switch/false advertising feeling about some of the features a lot of player have, and the continued lack of response to the population issues. People are not happy with BW/EA right now.

 

What bait and switch? I don't get it.

 

What lack of response to the population issues? The Devs have announced:

- Server transfers

- LFG tool

- Promotions to attract new players

 

If by "people" you mean a vocal minority of players, you are right.

[Azzras]

So if you have 300k subs + 100k trial = 400k subs reported...even if those trial never pay a single cent or become active subs. Thats how to lie about numbers in the investment world. Blizzard has been doing it for years.

 

Problem with your assessment is the last numbers were posted before the free trials.

 

Try harder.

[Febibi]

I dunno, that would be a cunning way to raise offical sub numbers. SoE did something similar (well they did several things similar in fact over the years).

 

yea its what EA did in warhammer with the unlimited free trials....to this day they count them as active subs to their investors...though with only 1 EU and 1 NA server...its hard to claim the population they do.

 

Until laws change to cover it, trial will always count as a sub.

[Goretzu]

Sorry but I don't see the lie, lets say they do have 1.7M subs.. at a guess that would probably add up to more or less 300k concurrent users. Feel free to correct me if I can be proven wrong.

 

Still seems a little high for the server states.

[Vahzl]

Except you have to subtract 66% to get more accurate numbers You numbers are old estimates prior to 60 day time cards running out.

 

And your estimates are high and counting alts

 

As someone who tracks these things in games and enjoys playing the numbers... you should know your numbers are on the high end and aged.

 

Redo your math to current numbers please and try again

 

 

 

 

No there are legal ways around numbers and trial accounts are a common method, as well as free trial and weekend passes....if they get a trial sub once in a month, that still counts for the month or quarter.

 

So if you have 300k subs + 100k trial = 400k subs reported...even if those trial never pay a single cent or become active subs. Thats how to lie about numbers in the investment world. Blizzard has been doing it for years.

 

A sub is someone who is currently in their paid time period, not someone playing on a free account/trial period. The very definition of the word means they are subscribers.

 

Also why do you keep responding to everyone as if they are Bioware employees?

 

Also why don't you answer anyones questions? Instead choosing to extract fiction from your poot chute.

 

Also before you harp on about legality, EA, Bioware, Blizzard and various other market leading developers are open companies, who's stocks, shares and business acuments are visible for all to see, through sites such as gamesindustry.biz - There are also departments, such as the consumer rights and fair trade association in place to ensure companies and corporations are only releasing factual information in their press statements. If a corporation was to lie about their figures, they could be closed down or very heavily fined.

[Ozzone]

Bioware/EA cannot lie about subscription numbers without breaking the law. Server populations are an entirely different matter. They don't have to lie about them because they don't have to talk about them. Instead they let posters speculate all they want just like we see here on the forums.

 

Case in point, what exact numbers does "standard" actually mean? Light, heavy, etc.. same way. Without a reference to actual numbers, those terms can mean anything that Bioware wants them to mean. They are in complete control of those terms.

 

I would like for them to get rid of those terms and, instead, show actual players playing on each server and it would also be nice to see the split between Empire and Republic. They won't do that though. I'm even surprised they show # of players in a specific zone but since there are numerous planets, flashpoints, warzones, etc., no one actually knows how many total players are logged into the server.

[Devlonir]

Except you have to subtract 66% to get more accurate numbers You numbers are old estimates prior to 60 day time cards running out.

 

And your estimates are high and counting alts

 

As someone who tracks these things in games and enjoys playing the numbers... you should know your numbers are on the high end and aged.

 

Redo your math to current numbers please and try again

 

No they are not. These numbers are very current actually. Yesterday evening I logged out on my standard version game on a Fleet with almost 200 people in it.

Heck, I just came from Tython which had the surprisingly high number of 45 showing (probably weekend passers).

 

You cannot claim foul on numbers without coming with your own counter-observations and number. You already prooved your failure in numbers by claiming all 220 servers needed 1000 people on Fleet prime time to be healthy.

 

Simple math there shows that if everyone was only on fleet (while it is usually only a small portion of the population being there at one time) you will already have 440.000 people actively playing at any one time, times 6 for the 4 hour average session time and that makes 2.6 million players if everyone only played on Fleet, ever.

 

So please don't call bad on my numbers when your own grasp of them are so clearly limited.

 

PS. Also, all my personal observations I base my numbers on come from playing Rep side, not Imp.

Edited March 26, 2012 by Devlonir

[Febibi]

Problem with your assessment is the last numbers were posted before the free trials.

 

Try harder.

 

last numbers were posted before the 60 day time cards ran out

 

free trials are done when population starts to decline in attempt to save the population... they needed to have the numbers of trials count as subs this quarter, you will see in may they will start an unlimited trial up to level 20, this will be their attempt to save the next quarter report and following ones.

 

If you are still confused, I welcome you to check the server forums and read the tens of thousands of posts about population complaints then come back here and share the results of your studies. I suspect you wont do this though and will continue to spam defense and insults

[Febibi]

A sub is someone who is currently in their paid time period, not someone playing on a free account/trial period. The very definition of the word means they are subscribers.

 

Also why do you keep responding to everyone as if they are Bioware employees?

 

Also why don't you answer anyones questions? Instead choosing to extract fiction from your poot chute.

 

Also before you harp on about legality, EA, Bioware, Blizzard and various other market leading developers are open companies, who's stocks, shares and business acuments are visible for all to see, through sites such as gamesindustry.biz - There are also departments, such as the consumer rights and fair trade association in place to ensure companies and corporations are only releasing factual information in their press statements. If a corporation was to lie about their figures, they could be closed down or very heavily fined.

 

I agree, however EA has shown in the past that this is not how they document their numbers. Other companies do the same. Until it is written into law that free trials do not count as active subscribers ...this behaivor will continue