CTSmith Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 11 commendations / 80+ BM Bags.. thought they said 25%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DestyOwn Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 11 commendations / 80+ BM Bags.. thought they said 25%? 3 in 46 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khadroth Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 1 in OVER 9000!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerain Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 it doesn't quite work like that... RNG man, RNG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoL-K-Noob Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 25% chance per bag not 25% guaranteed. You can get 1000 bags and still dont get one. Working as intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozzone Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 11 commendations / 80+ BM Bags.. thought they said 25%? Obviously you have no clue how a RNG works. BW has clearly stated that it's a 25% chance of getting a BM Comm from a bag. Not that you should get 25% success of all bags opened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pcolapat Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Its over 9000! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masahiko Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 11 commendations / 80+ BM Bags.. thought they said 25%? Dice humped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xerain Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Dice humped. The op should def get out his d7 set, we all know he has one he's playing a star wars game, pull out his two 10 sided dice and roll it 100 times and see how many times they hit between 1 and 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trivialed Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So you can get 16 bags a week. 80/16 = 5 weeks. 7 days a week x5 = 35 days. So you started getting bags on 1/13. But the bag change patch was only 2-3 weeks ago. Why are you using a number prior to the date of the patch and expecting it to be 25%? So if you math it out. According to your numbers it is 13.7% Now cut off the bags you got prior to the patch and you are probably sitting at 25%. Working as intended? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abadus Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Obviously you have no clue how a RNG works. BW has clearly stated that it's a 25% chance of getting a BM Comm from a bag. Not that you should get 25% success of all bags opened. In a sample size of 1000 25% should begin to show iself. Sample of 50 maybe not. I get 2 a week, usually Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoL-K-Noob Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Im amazed at how people somehow have an accurate count of how many bags they opened. Do you have a notepad and write down how many you open? Im willing to bet its safe to divide whatever someone says by 2 possibly 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masahiko Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The op should def get out his d7 set, we all know he has one he's playing a star wars game, pull out his two 10 sided dice and roll it 100 times and see how many times they hit between 1 and 25. Play it like you have Tyranids from 40k. 80 dice in a bucket, tip bucket over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Crowley- Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Before i finished my battlemaster set I was about 1 in 10 (i did get 3 pieces before they changed the system). Now that i have finished my BM set i am running about 1 in 2. My odds have leveled out but just came way to late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoL-K-Noob Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 In a sample size of 1000 25% should begin to show iself. Sample of 50 maybe not. I get 2 a week, usually Tuesday. Nope. Could be 99% and and 0 turn up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masahiko Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 (edited) Dice humped. Dice Humped: Consistently getting a poor result from a random number generator. Originally was used when playing tabletop games, but was expanded to be used as a warning thought experiment for any truly random number in a system. "What happens if the player gets dice humped?" It's a test if the designer actually wants things random or just distributed. http://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/6504/a_game_studio_culture_dictionary.php Its a fun list to have. Should see how many we can use for this game! Edited February 17, 2012 by Masahiko Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Crowley- Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 In a sample size of 1000 25% should begin to show iself. Sample of 50 maybe not. Your talking odds not probability. Odds of flipping a coin is 50% head 50% tails, the probability of having 50 heads and 50 tails after 100 flips is miniscule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ergecrs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 So you can get 16 bags a week. 80/16 = 5 weeks. 7 days a week x5 = 35 days. So you started getting bags on 1/13. But the bag change patch was only 2-3 weeks ago. Why are you using a number prior to the date of the patch and expecting it to be 25%? So if you math it out. According to your numbers it is 13.7% Now cut off the bags you got prior to the patch and you are probably sitting at 25%. Working as intended? As others stated its 25% per bag which means each bag you open you have a 1 of 4 chance to get one. That means that even if you open up 100 bags thier is a 75% chance you will get NOTHING! Working as Intended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ushela Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 (edited) That means that even if you open up 100 bags thier is a 75% chance you will get NOTHING! Working as Intended Are you trying to say, that if I open up a bag with a 25% chance to have an item....then repeat it 100 times that the overall chance of ending up with zero items is 75%? I hope not, because that's incorrect if so. Edited February 17, 2012 by Ushela Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainDil Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I'm calling ******** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alement Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 As others stated its 25% per bag which means each bag you open you have a 1 of 4 chance to get one. That means that even if you open up 100 bags thier is a 75% chance you will get NOTHING! Working as Intended You're exactly right, but success rate is different. For instance, I'm 2 for 27. That's a 7.40% success rate, which after two weeks of grinding just to get to V60, and another week and a half of opening bags, is enough to be frustrated over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abadus Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Dice Humped: Consistently getting a poor result from a random number generator. Originally was used when playing tabletop games, but was expanded to be used as a warning thought experiment for any truly random number in a system. "What happens if the player gets dice humped?" It's a test if the designer actually wants things random or just distributed. http://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/6504/a_game_studio_culture_dictionary.php Its a fun list to have. Should see how many we can use for this game! Should, there anomalies but 25% by its very nature its 1 in 4. My first 3 bags had tokens so someone else went at least 12 with none. remember 25% game wide not account wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozzone Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Are you trying to say, that if I open up a bag with a 25% chance to have an item....then repeat it 100 times that the overall chance of ending up with zero items is 75%? I hope not, because that's incorrect if so. Theoretically, you could open 100 bags and not get a single item but the odds are astronomical. Here's what I did. I set up a VB module that generates a number 1, 2, 3 or 4. The probability of getting a 1 is 25% each time. However, in order for it to be completely random, the generator must be reseeded with a different seed value each time or else randomness becomes less random. I run the code simulating 10 different players. I have seen variances of success vary greatly from as high as 45% down to 13% to get 18 comms. Usually it runs between the 20%-30% range. The "B"s represent a 1 and the dashes represent a 2, 3 or 4. In order to get 25%, 72 bags need to be opened. Bags Opened: 74 Chance: 24.32% Longest Bad Luck Streak: 10 Rolls: -B-------BB-B-B--------B----BB-----B------B---BB------B----------BB--B-B-B Bags Opened: 87 Chance: 20.69% Longest Bad Luck Streak: 14 Rolls: ------------B----B--BB--B-B--------B------B-BB------B-----B--------------B-B---BB---B-B Bags Opened: 64 Chance: 28.13% Longest Bad Luck Streak: 8 Rolls: B---B---B--------B----BB--B-B-BB--B--------BB-BB-B-----B-------B Bags Opened: 61 Chance: 29.51% Longest Bad Luck Streak: 8 Rolls: ----B----B-B---B--B----BB-BB--B-B-------BB-B-B--------B----BB Bags Opened: 87 Chance: 20.69% Longest Bad Luck Streak: 12 Rolls: -----B------B---BB------B----------BB--B-B-B------------B----B--BB--B-B--------B------B Bags Opened: 58 Chance: 31.03% Longest Bad Luck Streak: 9 Rolls: -----B--BB----B--B-B--B---BB-B---------B---B----BBBBB----B Bags Opened: 46 Chance: 39.13% Longest Bad Luck Streak: 4 Rolls: -BBBB-B---B--B--BB--B--B-B---BBB---B----B----B Bags Opened: 94 Chance: 19.15% Longest Bad Luck Streak: 12 Rolls: B--B---------BBB-BB-----B------------B----B-B-------B-------B--------BB---------B------B-----B Bags Opened: 67 Chance: 26.87% Longest Bad Luck Streak: 13 Rolls: ---------B--B-B-B---B-B-BBB---BB---BB-------------B--B---B-----B--B Bags Opened: 52 Chance: 34.62% Longest Bad Luck Streak: 9 Rolls: B----B--B-B--B---BB-B---------B---B----BBBBB----B-BB Notice #7 and #8? Player #7 was extremely lucky getting 18 comms out of only 46 bags (39.13%) while #8 was extremely unlucky getting 18 comms out of 94 bags. Note especially the bad luck streak of 12 bags in a row. I've tested this running 10, 100, 1,000 and 10,000 player simulations. It doesn't matter per individual player but the more I run it, the more the average gets closer to 25% exactly. However, Gabe himself didn't state anything about an average, he clearly stated that each BAG has a 25% chance to have a comm in it. This implies to me that they reseed the generator every single time (which makes logical sense and is easy to code). However, I had my doubts that this was the case because I, myself, have opened 45 champ bags and only got one piece. It's easy to say I'm just unlucky, but the odds of this happening are astronomical (I could calculate it but shouldn't have to). It further confused me when others (that I know aren't lying) tell me their success rate is more like 1 out of 10 than 1 out of 4. The odds of me having that bad of luck and others having the same problem are too high to count. Note that Gabe, nor anyone else at BW, has mentioned any changes to the RNG but simply state they won't change it and it's 25% (implied now, not past). For all we know, it could have been 20% the day before, or even less. It's easy for them to manipulate the outcome. The most concerning thing to me was this statement: Originally Posted by A4-I4 Greetings All, We apologize for this issue, it is a known one and it is due to be resolved in a future patch at some point after 1.1.3 Protocol Droid A4-I4 | BioWare Customer Service - Forum Support It wasn't long before that post got edited and we got left with this... The chance for a Battlemaster Commendation to be in a Battlemaster Bag is NOT changing. It is still 25%. Note, he doesn't say it wasn't changed ever, just that it isn't changing now from 25%. For all we know, he could have changed the code right before he made the post (plausible deniability). We have no way of knowing. It's obvious that a lot of damage control ensued after that CS rep made his post. Look at this thread: LINK I have seen, using the RNG method I used, bad streaks in excess of 30 bags but those are extremely rare. Typically I see between 8-10 bags opened sequentially without comms in each simulation. Sometimes I see clusters of 3-4 bags in a row that have a comm. Again, that is not common. Sometimes very few (3-4 no comms) and sometimes a lot (12-14 no comms) drop. However, the odds increase incrementally. Unlucky is one thing, to hit astronomical odds is another especially when others are hitting it also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozzone Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 remember 25% game wide not account wide. That is not what Gabe said. He clearly stated that each bag has a 25% chance, not some average in totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jagerinho Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 its RNG. every time you open a bag its 25%, not 25% across all your bags. could go 0/80 comms or 80/80 BM comms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts