smellyfed Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 Nice numbers but I am wondering how you would know exactly how many pre-orders there were in his huge spike? If you are guessing then this guess is just as good as any I suppose. If the spike is as big as they say, it's entirely possible that the orders in July were as big as all the other months combined. It's entirely based on VZcharts data. Follow the link: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/11410166/swtordata.pdf That's the only data that's available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zaszamonde Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Nice numbers but I am wondering how you would know exactly how many pre-orders there were in his huge spike? If you are guessing then this guess is just as good as any I suppose. If the spike is as big as they say, it's entirely possible that the orders in July were as big as all the other months combined. True, I'm guessing a lot, but I can adjust my variables for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skreacher Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 There are 106 servers currently online if I remember correctly form counting them earlier. Considering at one point they were all mostly full. there were 3506 players assigned to Nightmare Lands (EU) through guild placement. I Can assume that server capacity is at least 3500, Probably more since you can expect non guilded players to also join any given server that has guilds previously assigned. 3500*106 = 371,000 They expect to invite more tomorrow than they did today. I feel it safe to assume that the numbers provided vgzcharts is severely underepresented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smellyfed Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 They expect to invite more tomorrow than they did today. I feel it safe to assume that the numbers provided vgzcharts is severely underepresented. As an aggregate yes but as a statistical sample they probably trend closely with sales not included at VZcharts. Just as you can take a poll of 1200 citizens and within 3-4 points margin of error, predict how it would apply to a much larger sampling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeviuosOne Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I wish they would have done this ahead of time and they have the actual numbers so it would actually be even more actuate. It would have saved a ton of grief and people would have know what was going on instead of a bunch of misleading and vague posts. Your list is one of the better ones I have seen. I don't believe the made it past July 28 for the first day. I still cant believe they only let people in for about half a work day, and are actually starting 2 hours later tomorrow. Why wouldn't they have a few shifts and be working around the clock? That is one thing that really baffles me. There is going to be a big fan base with a lot of subs, so it isn't a time to get cheap and not have the staff to provide the support we deserve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorBeckett Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 The whole thing is sheer speculation. Stephen even said so in one of his tweets. The person that came up with that original chart only was speculating and did not have any facts whatsoever to back up the figures. Only the BioWare staff knows the actual particulars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astasia Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 You are assuming that when they say "at least one day" they mean they are spreading it out over 6 days and aren't just giving a safe value. Considering how vague and safe they are being about everything else.... The original plan was also 5 days, they said at least 1 day for that too, and they said we are getting 2 extra days now. I would bet money they were planning on a 4 day spread, but they are ahead of schedule and I would not be surprised if almost everyone was in by Thursday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeExil Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I guess I get 2 days only ... that sucks ... should have saved my money instead of going on that summer vacation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smellyfed Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 The whole thing is sheer speculation. Stephen even said so in one of his tweets. The person that came up with that original chart only was speculating and did not have any facts whatsoever to back up the figures. Only the BioWare staff knows the actual particulars. Of course it's speculation and of course only BW knows the actual numbers - I never said differently. I built this for my own benefit actually - to see when I might get EGA invite. Decided to share with the community after the fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilbyte Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Again we need to go back to what Stephen Reid said, and he said that they pretty much got through July today and should be starting into August tomorrow. Then he needs recheck. I preorder registration date was in July and I did not get in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malanthius Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I think you are going to see tomorrow covering up to the end of September at least. Your invite numbers are relatively flat, but I'm betting on them allowing more than double what they did today, which would put tomorrow's cutoff around Oct 1 or so. I think you are going to be close. I'm thinking the same thing. I think they will try to get most people in by Friday just to end all the ************ and moaning! Seriously though. The bulk of the pre-orders were in July. I'm thinking... 12/14 rest of July, Aug and couple weeks of Sept. 12/15 Rest of Sept - mid Nov. 12/16 Anyone else who pre-ordered before the 13th. 12/17 Everyone else. They should have a very good idea in the next couple of days how many servers they are going to need. And they will see the stability. I wouldn't be surprised if they start really ramping up the invites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smellyfed Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 You are assuming that when they say "at least one day" they mean they are spreading it out over 6 days and aren't just giving a safe value. Yes, I pointed this out in my initial post: I segmented this into 6 days since Stephen Reid said that even those that just preordered would at least get one day of EGA. Considering how vague and safe they are being about everything else.... The original plan was also 5 days, they said at least 1 day for that too, and they said we are getting 2 extra days now. I would bet money they were planning on a 4 day spread, but they are ahead of schedule and I would not be surprised if almost everyone was in by Thursday evening. I really hope you're right - but they may well have added the two extra days to EGA so they could simply spread the server launches out over a longer period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krollx Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Well, when they started with 5 days, I registered my pre-order on Nov. 15. I was hoping to get 1-2 days early, almost a given, I would have got in one day at least right? Ok. so then they made it 7 days early access. and said everyone would get 2 extra days. so that would mean my Nov 15th date may get me in 3-4 days early, hopefully. I think they are going to try use first 5 days as originally planned, and hav 2 extra days to make any needed adjustments. I know thats very optimistic on my part, but I can't wait to play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zaszamonde Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 (edited) So here's an update to my data with new assumptions: 1) End coefficient decreased, hopefully to better match estimates (6.5->3) 2) Linear relationships within weeks to get "exact" dates instead of week ends. 7/21-7/27: 12/13 7/28-8/10: 12/14 8/11-9/25: 12/15 9/26-10/20: 12/16 10/21-11/9: 12/17 11/10-11/21: 12/18 11/22-12/10: 12/19 I can alter these groups as much as you wish, just give me numbers. Just to say, my pre-order date is 9/27, so I'm not being kind even to myself. Edited December 14, 2011 by Zaszamonde Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcolo Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I think they are going to try use first 5 days as originally planned, and hav 2 extra days to make any needed adjustments. I know thats very optimistic on my part, but I can't wait to play Today was probably more about getting all the servers up and working, and making sure there weren't any major technical problems. With that out of the way, they could easily double the number of players brought in the first day. If July redemptions were much larger than expected, I think the OP's estimation of 13% could be low. Even distribution across 6 months would be 16.7%. I tend to think (purely opinion) that it is 20% or greater they let in today. Ultimately, they could be using a 20-40-25-15 or 20-50-30 pattern There is no indication that they don't want to be as aggressive as possible and give people as much time as they can.. It truly is a "wait and see game", but I do understand the conservative approach of the first day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astasia Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 (edited) The one thing we know for sure is that the only people getting their invite on the 19th are the people who preorder on the 19th. We are "promised" at least one day, not "a few hours." So Zaszamonde, you need to adjust all your estimates for that. I really hope you're right - but they may well have added the two extra days to EGA so they could simply spread the server launches out over a longer period of time. The way they keep stressing the extra ("bonus") two days strongly implies everyone is getting those two days added on to whatever they would have gotten on the 5 day system. I hope I'm right on this too, not just for my sake, but for the sake of the forum mods come the 17th-18th. The nerdrage would be beyond epic. We absolutely understand you want to get in and play the game early. It's one of the reasons we expanded our Early Game Access from a maximum of five days to a maximum of seven days. Edited December 14, 2011 by Astasia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CG_Osirhis Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Not saying you are wrong...but people who preordered ON or AFTER the Thanksgiving Beta after they played and like the game are going to be relugated to only one day? What was the point of even advertising preorder early access at that point? Might as well just put all effort into launch day advertising. I honestly believe everyone will be in Friday or Saturday...otherwise you risk alienating the casual fan base...which make up far far far more subscribers than the hardcore niche gamers who preordered on the first week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeviuosOne Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 well they are shutting the severs down on the 19 for the launch on the 20th so all the pre-orders must be in by the 18 so everyone gets at least 1 day. That would be pretty ignorant on BW if the let people in on the 19 only to give them a half of a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthMaxiss Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Ordered on 7/21 and entered the reg code on 7/22. Did not get in today. The flip side to that is I participated in game testing from Nov 2010 - Dec 2011. I'm not complaining for myself but do feel bad for others. I have a suspicion that GameStop is to blame anyway. Those losers didn't charge my CC for the order until... today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackfires Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Its nice to see someone take an analytical approach rather than pissing and moaning. Your numbers are interesting. I would like to hope after maybe one more day of gathering data and making sure nothing explodes they will ramp up the invites and we will all get to play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smellyfed Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 (edited) The way they keep stressing the extra ("bonus") two days strongly implies everyone is getting those two days added on to whatever they would have gotten on the 5 day system. I hope I'm right on this too, not just for my sake, but for the sake of the forum mods come the 17th-18th. The nerdrage would be beyond epic. I see your point - if I adjusted my estimates based on giving early preorders 2 full days of EGA, 5 segments instead of 6 - it would look something like this: Day 1 EGA - Dec 13 23-Jul 30-Jul (roughly) Approx 120k or 12.7% Day 2 EGA - Dec 14 6-Aug 13-Aug Approx 145k or 15.5%% Day 3 EGA - Dec 15 20-Aug 27-Aug 3-Sep 10-Sep 17-Sep 24-Sep Approx 161k or 17.1% Day 4 of EGA - Dec 16 1-Oct 8-Oct 15-Oct 22-Oct 29-Oct Approx 228k or 24.2% Day 5 EGA - Dec 17 5-Nov 12-Nov 19-Nov 26-Nov 3-Dec 10-Dec Approx 284k or 30% Edited December 14, 2011 by smellyfed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aenena Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I find these threads fascinating. I really do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Godsfear Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 (edited) If the op is correct then I'm cancelling tomorrow. If they are really leaving servers empty up till the 20th then I quit. That would only show how out of touch they are. There is NO reason every preorder should not be playing by tomorrow night. They could have easily let twice as many people in today. There is no reason not to have everyone in by tomorrow night unless they decide to stop work early again tomorrow Edited December 14, 2011 by Godsfear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smellyfed Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 (edited) Ordered on 7/21 and entered the reg code on 7/22. Did not get in today. The flip side to that is I participated in game testing from Nov 2010 - Dec 2011. I'm not complaining for myself but do feel bad for others. I have a suspicion that GameStop is to blame anyway. Those losers didn't charge my CC for the order until... today. There seems to be quite a few outlyers out there like yourself - not sure what other variables may be in play here. Based on what SR has said, it's entirely based on when you registered your code - which is why these estimates are preorder-date based. Edited December 14, 2011 by smellyfed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleeha Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 The problem here is that I have two friends who are in that pre-ordered after July and 1 friend who order early July that didn't get in. So while the crayons look pretty, we really have no idea who's getting in or how many until your email hits your box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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