Sedayeen Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 What I find interesting is that I registered my code July 30th, but did not get in I didn't register until Sept; if I had purchased in July and didn't get in today,.... I don't know what I would have done. I'm sorry. (Not being sassy). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mlande Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 This isn't even close.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPZO Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 if they are actually gonna wave this down too 19th and not let everyone in for atleast like 3 days... that's just ******** I just preordered on the 6th, and while I would love 3 days, I'm really only expecting to get in on Saturday and if I don't. Will I be upset? You bet. Will I rage over it? Not at all. IT was my own fault for preordering so late. OH God, Tuesday! PLEASE COME! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smellyfed Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 My variables are: Day 1-7 percentages (7 variables that add to 100%) Digital rush coefficient (controls the digital ordering spike at the start of preorders) Digital out-of-stock coefficient (controls the digital pre-ordering wave as retailers ran out of pre-orders) Weight (To get the totals near real numbers) Anyone have any requests for modeling? Current coefficients: 12,18,18,15,13,12,12 3.35 6.5 50 I'd like get see a 6 day segmentation based upon your models - I'm not claiming to have nailed this estimate of course. It's only a rough estimate based on limited available data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loseriticus Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I pre-ordered on Nov 26 after trying the beta. I mean, there's just no way I am going to pre-order a game without knowing how it is. Anyway, I hope I get in by Sunday night, the 18th. It's really busy for me at work this time of year so I really can't take any leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Febibi Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 The following analysis attempts to use VZcharts to estimate when you may expect to get into Early Game Access. VZcharts does not include other game sales outside the US but it seems reasonable that the preorder sales outside the US would trend closely with these numbers - therefore while the overall number of players admitted in each segment may not be accurate, the percentage should trend closely - or at least I hope. I segmented this into 6 days since Stephen Reid said that even those that just preordered would at least get one day of EGA. Here is the full analysis which obviously doesn't paste well here. http://dl.dropbox.com/u/11410166/swtordata.xlsx In short: Day 1 EGA - Dec 13 Preorders Week ending 23-Jul Preorders Week ending 30-Jul Approx 120k or 12.7% Day 2 EGA - Dec 14 Preorders Week ending 6-Aug Preorders Week ending 13-Aug Approx 145k or 15.5%% Day 3 EGA - Dec 15 Preorders Week ending 20-Aug Preorders Week ending 27-Aug Preorders Week ending 3-Sep Preorders Week ending 10-Sep Preorders Week ending 17-Sep Preorders Week ending 24-Sep Approx 161k or 17.1% Day 4 of EGA - Dec 16 Preorders Week ending 1-Oct Preorders Week ending 8-Oct Preorders Week ending 15-Oct Preorders Week ending 22-Oct Approx 180k or 19% Day 5 EGA - Dec 17 Preorders Week ending 29-Oct Preorders Week ending 5-Nov Preorders Week ending 12-Nov Approx 147k or 15.6% Day 6 EGA - Dec 18 Preorders Week ending 19-Nov Preorders Week ending 26-Nov Preorders Week ending 3-Dec Preorders Week ending 10-Dec Approx 186k or 20% Day 7 EGA - Dec 19 (Statistically, everyone is in) Game retail launch - Dec 20 sorry your numbers dont line up with what SR confirmed today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mayams Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 The following analysis attempts to use VZcharts to estimate when you may expect to get into Early Game Access. VZcharts does not include other game sales outside the US but it seems reasonable that the preorder sales outside the US would trend closely with these numbers - therefore while the overall number of players admitted in each segment may not be accurate, the percentage should trend closely - or at least I hope. I segmented this into 6 days since Stephen Reid said that even those that just preordered would at least get one day of EGA. Here is the full analysis which obviously doesn't paste well here. http://dl.dropbox.com/u/11410166/swtordata.xlsx In short: Day 1 EGA - Dec 13 Preorders Week ending 23-Jul Preorders Week ending 30-Jul Approx 120k or 12.7% Day 2 EGA - Dec 14 Preorders Week ending 6-Aug Preorders Week ending 13-Aug Approx 145k or 15.5%% Day 3 EGA - Dec 15 Preorders Week ending 20-Aug Preorders Week ending 27-Aug Preorders Week ending 3-Sep Preorders Week ending 10-Sep Preorders Week ending 17-Sep Preorders Week ending 24-Sep Approx 161k or 17.1% Day 4 of EGA - Dec 16 Preorders Week ending 1-Oct Preorders Week ending 8-Oct Preorders Week ending 15-Oct Preorders Week ending 22-Oct Approx 180k or 19% Day 5 EGA - Dec 17 Preorders Week ending 29-Oct Preorders Week ending 5-Nov Preorders Week ending 12-Nov Approx 147k or 15.6% Day 6 EGA - Dec 18 Preorders Week ending 19-Nov Preorders Week ending 26-Nov Preorders Week ending 3-Dec Preorders Week ending 10-Dec Approx 186k or 20% Day 7 EGA - Dec 19 (Statistically, everyone is in) Game retail launch - Dec 20 Take away? The general consensus, you came onboard around late Oct. to Dec., find something else to occupy your time. You knew this going in and yes I'm among you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zaszamonde Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I'd like get see a 6 day segmentation based upon your models - I'm not claiming to have nailed this estimate of course. It's only a rough estimate based on limited available data. Let's try: 12 (current prevailing estimate for today),21,21,18,15,13, okay? 7/21-7/23: 12/13 7/30-8/20: 12/14 8/27-10/15: 12/15 10/22-11/12: 12/16 11/19-11/26: 12/17 12/3-12/10: 12/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sothorn Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I put in my pre-order code on 7-30-2011 and I did not get in today. Just an FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smellyfed Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 That is a totally worthless link and they have ZERO idea how it is going to work. I added a PDF version in case you can't open an .xslx file. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mayams Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 sorry your numbers dont line up with what SR confirmed today... Can I buy a link Mr. Sajak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohdoh Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Let's try: 12 (current prevailing estimate for today),21,21,18,15,13, okay? 7/21-7/23: 12/13 7/30-8/20: 12/14 8/27-10/15: 12/15 10/22-11/12: 12/16 11/19-11/26: 12/17 12/3-12/10: 12/18 I'm doomed.. if they jump from 7/23 to 7/30 and my pre-order is 7/29 ... eek! I'll never get to play! but really.. why all the gaps in dates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smellyfed Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 Take away? The general consensus, you came onboard around late Oct. to Dec., find something else to occupy your time. You knew this going in and yes I'm among you. Nah, I redeemed my code Aug 20. Just was interested in doing some trending. If it's not useful, please ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scandana Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I would laugh if I got in tomorrow (nov 19 redeemed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smellyfed Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 Let's try: 12 (current prevailing estimate for today),21,21,18,15,13, okay? 7/21-7/23: 12/13 7/30-8/20: 12/14 8/27-10/15: 12/15 10/22-11/12: 12/16 11/19-11/26: 12/17 12/3-12/10: 12/18 Why do you feel the EGA segments would trend downward rather than upward? I've seen statements about them ramping up toward launch so I take that to mean segments would grow. Just curious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mayams Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Nah, I redeemed my code Aug 20. Just was interested in doing some trending. If it's not useful, please ignore it. Sorry not directed at you or anyone specific. I'm in the Nov. 19th camp, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zaszamonde Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 I'm doomed.. if they jump from 7/23 to 7/30 and my pre-order is 7/29 ... eek! I'll never get to play! but really.. why all the gaps in dates? The only data we have to work with is from VGChartz which only releases the info weekly. Those dates I use are the dates they release the data. The dates listed are the end of the week, so when there looks like a gap, like 7/21-7/23 for one day and 7/30-8/20 for the next, it should be read as 7/21-7/23 first the first one and 7/24-8/20 for the next. Sorry for the confusion, I post this way because it's easier for me to look at and parse the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zaszamonde Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Why do you feel the EGA segments would trend downward rather than upward? I've seen statements about them ramping up toward launch so I take that to mean segments would grow. Just curious? They're ramping up tomorrow (same volume for the day after also). That's all of the official data. My guess is that that they'll take the larger chunks and then evaluate where they are. Give me numbers and I can crunch the numbers anyway you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smellyfed Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 Zasz - I certainly like your numbers. Mine gets me in on Thursday - yours get me in tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kagato_Muyo Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 (edited) Great thread, thank you for taking the time to run these numbers by us Edit: I wish I could up-vote this thread or the OP.. Edited December 14, 2011 by Kagato_Muyo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macwulf Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 (edited) Pre-order code on July 30th. No invite. Hoping for the next wave on the 14th. Edited December 14, 2011 by Macwulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluke_nuke_em Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Thanks for doing something constructive, thoughtful, and of interest. For srs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zaszamonde Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Pre-order code on July 30th. No invite. The dates posted are week ending dates, not exact dates. I can't get specific enough to do a day-by-day analysis for the future, only the present. If I could, I would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zaszamonde Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Thanks for doing something constructive, thoughtful, and of interest. For srs. I enjoy doing this actually, so thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sinnegorth Posted December 14, 2011 Share Posted December 14, 2011 Nice numbers but I am wondering how you would know exactly how many pre-orders there were in his huge spike? If you are guessing then this guess is just as good as any I suppose. If the spike is as big as they say, it's entirely possible that the orders in July were as big as all the other months combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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