Dr_Nex Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 (edited) I'm slightly mollified by giving out crates based on role/discipline, but RNG is still a very annoying problem. When trying to get your last set piece, you still only have a 1/14 or a 7% chance of getting the piece you need. Even if you end up earning a crate every hour (and that's a big if since it doesn't seem set in stone and they admitted the rate of earning crates slows down as you progress), there's still a very real possibility that you could go through 10+ crates and not get the piece that you want/need. Basically, to get a 95% chance of getting the 1/14 set piece that you need to complete your set, you would need to open 41 crates. (1.00 - (1 / 14)) ^ 41 = ~5% This assumes there are only a total of 14 set pieces in the loot table. It may well be worse than that as there could be more (and probably are) than 2 relics or 2 implants, and more than a single earpiece in the loot table. If you assume there are 20 pieces in the loot table, you'd need to open FIFTY-NINE crates to have a 95% chance of getting the set piece that you need. (1 - (1 / 20)) ^ 59 = ~5% And that's not even a sure bet, it might take someone who's unlucky even more boxes. But even at the rate of one per hour (assuming that doesn't slow down), you're now potentially talking about 60 hours of grinding to get the single set piece that you need? Just give us tokens or let us pick what we want from a list FFS. _____ Also, as a sidenote, I have to question the logic that this system is being implemented because things are complicated and there are too many tokens and types of currencies blah blah blah. Oh, here's a new type of token/currency called dark and light tokens! ???? Edited October 20, 2016 by Dr_Nex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GythralSWTOR Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 RNG is simple not a workable option No one is interested in 95% they are interested in playing the content they want and knowing that getting the 'token' or crate for the missing item ensures that they get that item & not yet another duplicate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caronome Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 Isn't the set bonus 6 of 7 slots? So as soon as you get 70, you can buy crafted, so you are going for set bonuses. Once you get 5 set pieces, then 54% of the people will get one of the two remaining slots for their 6P bonus within 5 crates. I have read 1-1.5 hours per crate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JainiaDral Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 You're forgetting that there are also three tiers of gear for even more "fun." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr_Nex Posted October 20, 2016 Author Share Posted October 20, 2016 (edited) Isn't the set bonus 6 of 7 slots? So as soon as you get 70, you can buy crafted, so you are going for set bonuses. Once you get 5 set pieces, then 54% of the people will get one of the two remaining slots for their 6P bonus within 5 crates. I have read 1-1.5 hours per crate. Ok, let's assume you have 5/7 set pieces so you just need a 6th to complete the bonus. Let's assume a loot table of 20 items (relics, earpieces, implants, etc.) You would have a 2 in 20 chance of getting one of the two set pieces that you need to get the 6/7 bonus. To have a 95% chance of getting one of the two remaining set pieces that you need, you would still need to open ~29 crates. (0.9 ^ 29) = ~5% Also, keep in mind that some poor schmucks are going to be extra unlucky and it's going to take a lot more boxes. To bring it up to a 99.9% chance, you'd need to open 65 boxes. And, 0.01% of players (which is still quite a few when you're talking about tens of thousands) STILL won't get what they need. Can you imagine their rage after grinding for 65 boxes and not being able to complete their set bonus? Edited October 20, 2016 by Dr_Nex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr_Nex Posted October 20, 2016 Author Share Posted October 20, 2016 You're forgetting that there are also three tiers of gear for even more "fun."Trying to keep things simple ;-) At least you can mix-and-match the set bonus between the different tiers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirazy Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 I love everyone doing math on this. There are no givens. You're making assumptions about what the possible pool of gear is. You're making assumptions about weighting. You're discounting the very real possibility you could conceivably get a full set bonus from one piece of gear alone (word is they're considering making the armoring not slot bound?) To wit: everyone doing math is trying to model a situation you can't measure at all. No way to know you're wrong, no way to know you're right. It's pure speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nepochop Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 I love everyone doing math on this. There are no givens. You're making assumptions about what the possible pool of gear is. You're making assumptions about weighting. You're discounting the very real possibility you could conceivably get a full set bonus from one piece of gear alone (word is they're considering making the armoring not slot bound?) To wit: everyone doing math is trying to model a situation you can't measure at all. No way to know you're wrong, no way to know you're right. It's pure speculation. Still it is RNG it will have its flaws, the system there is now is great in the way that you can fill in the gaps anytime. Gear is accessable to anyone and with Prio ops it was very very easy to get highest tier end game gear, I dont understand this change!! Well i do, they simply wanna keep ppl subbed for as long as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deewe Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Lets play the devil advocate here, is as per today's stream, we can get one crate per hour then it means roundly 41h of play time per character. Which isn't that much of a great deal, even for more casual players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khevar Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 I love everyone doing math on this. There are no givens. You're making assumptions about what the possible pool of gear is. You're making assumptions about weighting. You're discounting the very real possibility you could conceivably get a full set bonus from one piece of gear alone (word is they're considering making the armoring not slot bound?) To wit: everyone doing math is trying to model a situation you can't measure at all. No way to know you're wrong, no way to know you're right. It's pure speculation. This type of criticism is just ridiculous. You'll note that the word "theorycrafting" contains the word "theory" in it. We make assumptions. We do math. We look at the results. People challenge our assumptions. We change those assumptions. We do more math. We look at the results. THAT'S HOW THIS WORKS. I made the assumption of a 38-piece gear pool based off of Musco's post that stated gear drops were AC specific, not discipline specific. I then crunched some numbers. They didn't look very good. Then today's stream announces that based off of player feedback, the gear drops would be Discipline specific instead of AC specific. Oh, and by the way -- you're *********** welcome for that. Sheesh. Some people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ludoviccb Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 The 41+ crates to get the set piece needed is wrong for all but the last piece. Otherwise, you can still get a piece that you need with fewer crates, but not a specific one. With the changes made so that it's discipline instead of AC, I've redone my calculations with those hypotheses for two cases: —No RNG mitigation. —Always 1 piece per crate, no more, no less (if it's not the case, it's even worse). —All the gear piece wanted are selected from the start for the relics, implants and earpieces. —The relics and implants wanted are of different types. Case 1: if there are only 14 gear pieces (2 Relics, 2 Implants, 1 earpiece, 7 Armor pieces, 1MH and 1 OH) Case 2: Maximum number of different 224 pieces currently available for a single discipline. It's the highest for a dps it's 1 MH, 1 OH, 7 Armor pieces, 3 different implants, 3 different earpiece and 6 relics (5 vendors, 1 from chapter 16) for a total of 21 potential pieces in the random drop. The hypotheses give a total of 14 different gear pieces wanted for those cases. It could be somewhere between 13 and 21, but in any other cases, the odds would change depending on when some gear piece is obtained. Using spoiler to reduce the size of the post. For the Case 1: Median number of crates for each piece of gear (first crate with a 50%+ chance to get a useful piece) 1st piece, 1 crate, 100% 2nd piece, 1 crate, 93% 3rd piece, 1 crate, 86% 4th piece, 1 crate, 79% 5th piece, 1 crate, 71% 6th piece, 1 crate, 64% 7th piece, 1 crate, 57% 8th piece, 1 crates, 50% 9th piece, 2 crates, 64% 10th piece, 2 crates, 59% 11th piece, 3 crates, 64% 12th piece, 3 crates, 51% 13th piece, 5 crates, 54% 14th piece, 10 crates, 52% 95%+ chance to get a new gear piece 1st piece, 1 crate, 100% 2nd piece, 2 crates, 99% 3rd piece, 2 crates, 98% 4th piece, 2 crates, 95% 5th piece, 3 crates, 98% 6th piece, 3 crates, 95% 7th piece, 4 crates, 97% 8th piece, 5 crates, 97% 9th piece, 6 crates, 97% 10th piece, 7 crates, 96% 11th piece, 11 crates, 95% 12th piece, 13 crates, 95% 13th piece, 20 crates, 95% 14th piece, 41 crates, 95% For the Case 2: Median number of crates for each piece of gear 1st piece, 1 crate, 67% 2nd piece, 1 crate, 62% 3rd piece, 1 crate, 57% 4th piece, 1 crate, 52% 5th piece, 2 crates, 72% 6th piece, 2 crates, 67% 7th piece, 2 crates, 62% 8th piece, 2 crates, 56% 9th piece, 3 crates, 64% 10th piece, 3 crates, 56% 11th piece, 4 crates, 57% 12th piece, 5 crates, 53% 13th piece, 7 crates, 50% 14th piece, 15 crates, 52% 95%+ chance to get a new gear piece 1st piece, 3 crates, 96% 2nd piece, 4 crates, 98% 3rd piece, 4 crates, 97% 4th piece, 5 crates, 98% 5th piece, 5 crates, 96% 6th piece, 6 crates, 97% 7th piece, 7 crates, 97% 8th piece, 8 crates, 96% 9th piece, 9 crates, 95% 10th piece, 11 crates, 95% 11th piece, 15 crates, 96% 12th piece, 20 crates, 95% 13th piece, 30 crates, 95% 14th piece, 62 crates, 95% If they don't put in place some things to select which piece we want, nor do they reduce the number of relics/implant/earpiece, for some people, it will take hundreds of crates to get a single full set of gear. From data from the stream, someone would get a crate every hour, if the player is lucky, a full gear set could be obtained in about 70 crates after grinding the command level to get BiS. Right now, for PvE, for a full set and getting it take about 22 HHM or NiM operations with people getting only 1 piece and all of them rolling to get a full set. Supposing a good raid group doing the HHM, it would take about 40 hours (about 2 hours per raid) to gear the entire group from comendation/crafted gear to BiS. So, for a group, it's faster right now to gear up. Also, if they got to gear someone new or get a off spec set, it can be done with 3 operations (3-4 hours) (EV, S&V and TfB will give someone a full gear set). It make getting someone new in a group a lot faster since you can give them a full 220 set in a night or two, and off spec set would take the same time as the first set and there is no way for everyone to get the one that need gear all the gear. For PvP, it even faster to get a full set, doing the daily missions every day and the weekly, it take about 3 weeks to get a full set, so around 20-30 hours of PvP gameplay. Also, since it's linked with discipline of the advanced class,you can't play on your main and get a gear set for an alt. At most, depending on your advanced class, you can get some MH/OH for your alts. You need to grind command level on the alt until you reach the right level for BiS again and grind for another 70 hours to get your full set. This new system is worse than the current one. It would slow down the gearing compared to the current one for people doing hard mode operation and pvp. It make getting an off spec or an alt geared a grind just as big as to get the first set and you can't have people giving you extra gear piece so that you're geared faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andryah Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 (edited) Lets play the devil advocate here, is as per today's stream, we can get one crate per hour then it means roundly 41h of play time per character. Which isn't that much of a great deal, even for more casual players. Agreed. I figured on somewhere between 40-80 hours of game play, and ~ 40 boxes to finish up a gearing cycle on average. So I am fine with what they are planning. Sure, RNG might nerf the cycle a bit if you are unlucky... but you also do not need to sit on your hands until you have every slot filled either as gearing is very often a progression of replacing one item with a better one.. and I generally will back fill with crafted items until I get the actual drop I want/need. I appreciate that they listened to player feedback and will make the boxes Discipline specific. It not only makes more sense, it also will smooth out a lot of the uncertainty of trying to figure out how many item variables there would be. That was my only real concern about what they planned to do. Now I see people starting to rebel over he fact that their will be progressive tiers of gear in the boxes as you level, as though only the very highest tier is of any use or value. So much rigid thinking. It's always something with the crowd I guess. Edited October 21, 2016 by Andryah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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