Watchman Compendium & Theorycrafting Model

[oofalong]

A long time ago on a website far far away (the now defunct MMO Mechanics), I authored a compendium for Watchman. In essence, I tried to address every aspect of the spec and answer every question. As part of this, I created a fairly sophisticated Excel model. Anyway, since MMO Mechanics is now gone, I have recreated this as a series of publicly available Google Docs. The compendium can be found here and my model is here although you will have to save a copy of the model in order to make changes based on your gear. I hope some find this helpful, and let me know if you have any questions.

[undiess]

Ty sir for your good work.

[TertiusArmada]

So, I subbed to this thread a while back, and have been referencing it for a while now. I just hit 45 on my first sent ever, and figured I would bump this thread so others could see your work. Thanks so much!

[Leafy_Bug]

He needs to work on a new one for 3.0, so fingers crossed!

[oofalong]

He needs to work on a new one for 3.0, so fingers crossed!

 

I need to see 3.0 first

 

I plan on updating this as soon as possible.

[MaximusFenix]

So no crit mods/enhancements at all huh?

I've always heard different.. But I will have to give this a try

[oofalong]

So no crit mods/enhancements at all huh?

I've always heard different.. But I will have to give this a try

 

The model, which I created, predicts the highest expected DPS comes from 0 critical rating. That said, the difference between 0 and 218 critical rating is about 0.25%. For all intents and purposes this is an immeasurable amount.

 

One of the challenges of reconciling predicted results (my model) to actual results (a dummy parse) is that my model assumes averages while and actual parse is subject to luck or RNG. This RNG may provide misleading information. That is, there are just too many variables in a parse.

[Atlanis]

While Theorycrafting is nice, I wouldn´t rely on it 100%.

[facesofderek]

The model, which I created, predicts the highest expected DPS comes from 0 critical rating. That said, the difference between 0 and 218 critical rating is about 0.25%. For all intents and purposes this is an immeasurable amount.

 

One of the challenges of reconciling predicted results (my model) to actual results (a dummy parse) is that my model assumes averages while and actual parse is subject to luck or RNG. This RNG may provide misleading information. That is, there are just too many variables in a parse.

 

I do wish people would stop promoting crit over power whenever anyone asks about Sentinel stats in gen chat. Even with multiple people trying to talk them down they seem to scream the loudest. Especially now with so many people trying out new classes due to the pre-order boost there is a lot of misinformation out already.

Edited October 12, 2014 by facesofderek

[znihilist]

The model, which I created, predicts the highest expected DPS comes from 0 critical rating. That said, the difference between 0 and 218 critical rating is about 0.25%. For all intents and purposes this is an immeasurable amount.

 

0.25% DPS, that's interesting!

I wonder how that value changes if we can take into account increased rage generation, also do you have a number on the % increase in HPS and rage from crits (from 218 crit rating) ?

 

 

EDIT: I just skimmed through your model, am I getting this right ? Did you account for the rage generation ?

Edited October 13, 2014 by znihilist

[oofalong]

0.25% DPS, that's interesting!

I wonder how that value changes if we can take into account increased rage generation, also do you have a number on the % increase in HPS and rage from crits (from 218 crit rating) ?

 

 

EDIT: I just skimmed through your model, am I getting this right ? Did you account for the rage generation ?

 

I did account for resource generation. However, the rotation does not dynamically update although I have assumed only three uses of Strike/Assault. The exact increase in resource from the extra crit is predicted to be 12.2 over the model 181 GCD fight. The HPS is a function of your current health, but the number of heals can be calculated with this model although it is not explicity done. My model predicts an extra 8 ticks with 218 critical rating, which is a 5% increase compared to 0 critical rating.

[znihilist]

I did account for resource generation. However, the rotation does not dynamically update although I have assumed only three uses of Strike/Assault. The exact increase in resource from the extra crit is predicted to be 12.2 over the model 181 GCD fight. The HPS is a function of your current health, but the number of heals can be calculated with this model although it is not explicity done. My model predicts an extra 8 ticks with 218 critical rating, which is a 5% increase compared to 0 critical rating.

 

8 extra ticks doesn't really justify what I had in mind, oh well!

Great work otherwise!

 

 

I have another question though (and I know it is a bit premature), considering the same DR we have now, how beneficial do you think 3.0 alacrity would be ?

I did some rough calculation and for me it seemed after reaching accuracy cap, alacrity is much more beneficial than surge (even with crit heavy specs).

Edited October 13, 2014 by znihilist

[oofalong]

8 extra ticks doesn't really justify what I had in mind, oh well!

Great work otherwise!

 

 

I have another question though (and I know it is a bit premature), considering the same DR we have now, how beneficial do you think alacrity would be ?

I did some rough calculation and for me it seemed after reaching accuracy cap, alacrity is much more beneficial than surge (even with crit heavy specs).

 

Until I see the new stat budgets and formulas (assuming there are some) I am trying to avoid speculating about the usefulness of Alacrity. I worry any speculation this will lead to misinformation and confusions hence why I am avoiding it.

 

Still, I will generally say that I am excited about the prospect of a valuable and worthwhile Alacrity stat.

[znihilist]

Until I see the new stat budgets and formulas (assuming there are some) I am trying to avoid speculating about the usefulness of Alacrity. I worry any speculation this will lead to misinformation and confusions hence why I am avoiding it.

 

Still, I will generally say that I am excited about the prospect of a valuable and worthwhile Alacrity stat.

 

GaddockTeeg mentioned in his podcast that the formulas are not going to change (he didn't use those words, he said soft cap).

 

 

There will also be no stat switch, and to his knowledge (he is talking about Bruce) there will be no changing of soft cap or anything like that, it is pretty much going to stay the same [...]

 

 

EDIT: But fair enough, I understand your reluctance!

Edited October 13, 2014 by znihilist

[oofalong]

GaddockTeeg mentioned in his podcast that the formulas are not going to change (he didn't use those words, he said soft cap).

 

 

 

 

 

EDIT: But fair enough, I understand your reluctance!

 

 

I am waiting for something more official than this although I am aware of it.

[TACeMossie]

While its not marauders, I did some testing and if 3.0s stats have the exact same curve, surge still competes rather well with alacrity, depending on the average crit rate among other things.

 

E.g. here's one for an assault vanguard in dread masters gear. The black line is current values, with the pretty colors representing different surge values (alacrity = 612 - surge)

http://i.imgur.com/gHl1GIl.png

[znihilist]

While its not marauders, I did some testing and if 3.0s stats have the exact same curve, surge still competes rather well with alacrity, depending on the average crit rate among other things.

 

E.g. here's one for an assault vanguard in dread masters gear. The black line is current values, with the pretty colors representing different surge values (alacrity = 612 - surge)

http://i.imgur.com/gHl1GIl.png

 

But it is alacrity first or surge first ? To clarify better my point, what would happen if the stat budget was bigger or smaller ?

[oofalong]

GaddockTeeg mentioned in his podcast that the formulas are not going to change (he didn't use those words, he said soft cap).

 

It is worth noting that one of the factors in each stat equation is your toon's level so I would be very surprised if nothing changes in 3.0. The formulas are sufficiently complex that BioWare could achieve the same curve and DR though.

 

As an aside, I have never really understood the concept of softcaps in this game; I think it is misleading as all of the stats follow curves of diminishing marginal returns (except Damage Bonus/Healing). Thus, there isn't a consistent point where a softcap is met. That said for every stat budget there is an optimal allocation of your stats. While this could be interpreted as a softcap, I do not believe that is the best approach.

[znihilist]

It is worth noting that one of the factors in each stat equation is your toon's level so I would be very surprised if nothing changes in 3.0. The formulas are sufficiently complex that BioWare could achieve the same curve and DR though.

 

As an aside, I have never really understood the concept of softcaps in this game; I think it is misleading as all of the stats follow curves of diminishing marginal returns (except Damage Bonus/Healing). Thus, there isn't a consistent point where a softcap is met. That said for every stat budget there is an optimal allocation of your stats. While this could be interpreted as a softcap, I do not believe that is the best approach.

 

I think it is a relic of pre 2.0 time where people would say "Get crit to 30% and then dump everything in power" which got changed to "Crit's soft cap is 30%", even though the second sentence is wrong since it is crit rating that could have a cap.

 

 

As for your first sentence, I agree I think we overlooked the part where the denominator in the exponent is level dependent, so while I believe the Bruce meant the formula won't change, it means the parameters of the formula won't.

Edited October 13, 2014 by znihilist

[TACeMossie]

But it is alacrity first or surge first ? To clarify better my point, what would happen if the stat budget was bigger or smaller ?

 

Alacrity is 612 - (whatever the number says) - so in this case, black is 0 alacrity, optimal is a 50/50, and blue is 612 alacrity

 

This will change with 3.0 and gear and spec and whatnot, but...

Edited October 14, 2014 by TACeMossie

[znihilist]

Alacrity is 612 - (whatever the number says) - so in this case, black is 0 alacrity, optimal is a 50/50, and blue is 612 alacrity

 

This will change with 3.0 and gear and spec and whatnot, but...

 

That's not what I meant, for that stat budget 612 points to be divided between surge and alacrity you found the optimal allocation to be 306 for alacrity and 306 for surge.

Now the question is: For the same amount of power/crit rating (and accuracy rating) what would be optimal if the budget for surge/alacrity was 306 ? What would it be if it was 400 ? 800 ?

 

 

I am interested in seeing which of the two stats is better at first and then when does the second one comes in (or when does the second stat becomes optimal to stack).

 

 

My prediction (although I am standing on shaky grounds) is that due to the fact that when you include alacrity the optimal crit rating goes from 400-ish (black line) to 350-400 (light blue line) the contribution of surge was diminished due the the fact that dps increase is driven by alacrity until you hit a point where the contribution of alacrity gets reduced so much by the DR that surge(and crit) starts driving the dps increase.

 

It is slightly corroborated by the fact that the dark blue line (full alacrity) gives slightly higher dps with a lower optimal crit rating value.

Edited October 14, 2014 by znihilist

[TACeMossie]

That's not what I meant, for that stat budget 612 points to be divided between surge and alacrity you found the optimal allocation to be 306 for alacrity and 306 for surge.

Now the question is: For the same amount of power/crit rating (and accuracy rating) what would be optimal if the budget for surge/alacrity was 306 ? What would it be if it was 400 ? 800 ?

 

 

I am interested in seeing which of the two stats is better at first and then when does the second one comes in (or when does the second stat becomes optimal to stack).

 

Ah ok, ill do it again with tactics instead of Assault, as that spec has a lower crit requirement, so to simulate a sentinel better. Then I'll set it to the level 60 DR scales because it will adjust the amount of accuracy needed, and tone down the increase in crit/surge/alacrity to show what it will look like.

 

I won't be able to simulate level 60 damage properly though without a Base Damage for everything though. Reply will probably be up after the website downtime.

 

My current expectations though are Surge will be better earlier on, as it has much harsher diminishing returns (starting to be noticable at about 250) as opposed to Alacrity which starts hitting noticable Diminishing returns at ~800

 

EDIT - Quick test limiting tertiary budget remaining to 306 for dread masters gear (so you have 714 accuracy!) gives this:http://i.imgur.com/CpoBR1A.jpg

Recommends 2 surge 1 alacrity

 

Note this is with assault spec, which has ~80% of the damage having a 30% surge boost, and an average crit chance boost of ~9.2% for the whole spec.

Edited October 14, 2014 by TACeMossie

[znihilist]

Ah ok, ill do it again with tactics instead of Assault, as that spec has a lower crit requirement, so to simulate a sentinel better. Then I'll set it to the level 60 DR scales because it will adjust the amount of accuracy needed, and tone down the increase in crit/surge/alacrity to show what it will look like.

 

I won't be able to simulate level 60 damage properly though without a Base Damage for everything though. Reply will probably be up after the website downtime.

 

My current expectations though are Surge will be better earlier on, as it has much harsher diminishing returns (starting to be noticable at about 250) as opposed to Alacrity which starts hitting noticable Diminishing returns at ~800

 

EDIT - Quick test limiting tertiary budget remaining to 306 for dread masters gear (so you have 714 accuracy!) gives this:http://i.imgur.com/CpoBR1A.jpg

Recommends 2 surge 1 alacrity

 

Note this is with assault spec, which has ~80% of the damage having a 30% surge boost, and an average crit chance boost of ~9.2% for the whole spec.

 

This is extremely interesting! I will take some time to reflect on it.

 

Thank you for taking the time to do this!