Malastare Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Well I do know ( tested a few times last night and got it 3 times in a row today , more testing needed but it looks promising ) that after getting the feeling lucky buff and then going on a kingpin machine , if you don't run out of kingpin tokens or the buff runs out or lose then when the buff runs out you will get a golden certificate on that final go. So yeah not so random that part it seems. I shall test it more. You tested that a "few" times... and you think that is any manner of proof? You'd need to run 15 or so before we can get any manner of confidence in the results. Come back when you have cataloged the play sequences for 15 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OddballEasyEight Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Well I do know ( tested a few times last night and got it 3 times in a row today , more testing needed but it looks promising ) that after getting the feeling lucky buff and then going on a kingpin machine , if you don't run out of kingpin tokens or the buff runs out or lose then when the buff runs out you will get a golden certificate on that final go. So yeah not so random that part it seems. I shall test it more. Cheers, BadOrb. Well I've disproved that theory numerous times... I've gone to the kingpin and rolled until my buff was out without getting anything at all on a number of times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DOHboy Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 (edited) You tested that a "few" times... and you think that is any manner of proof? You'd need to run 150000 or so before we can get any manner of confidence in the results. Come back when you have cataloged the play sequences for 150000 runs. fify /5char Edited June 12, 2014 by DOHboy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HelinCarnate Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Well I do know ( tested a few times last night and got it 3 times in a row today , more testing needed but it looks promising ) that after getting the feeling lucky buff and then going on a kingpin machine , if you don't run out of kingpin tokens or the buff runs out or lose then when the buff runs out you will get a golden certificate on that final go. So yeah not so random that part it seems. I shall test it more. Cheers, BadOrb. Do the same 100 time in a row and then you may have a case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OddballEasyEight Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 fify /5char Sorry man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DOHboy Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Sorry man am i missing something? fify = fixed it for you was just saying that 3 runs in nothing, 15 is a sample 100 runs begins a pattern 15,000 can start to discuss "random" Use same for RE. I RE'd 20 items not one proc well thats just poor luck. RE 10,000 items and see if you approach their 5% from there go to 1 million items and you start to get server patterns and test local RNG test 10 billion and you can probably approach a true random event and will see patterns of strings lasting 10 or 20 straight RE procs with strings of 1000's with out a proc. Random is random. OP might as well say I stand on my head, cluck like a chicken, count to 30 before I hit the button and it works! I had 5 wins where you truly "random" would only expect 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Halinalle Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 (edited) Maybe it is just a gambling mentality thing, that people want to believe that there is a system they can exploit even in total randomness. I think I remember vaguely a study in which people who had the option to push a button while watching random numbers had the feeling of influencing those even though there was no connection... Anyway, still have not been to Nar Shaddaa to play there at the slot machines, maybe I am just not interested enough in gambling in general. So, randomly clicking 4+ machines as fast as possible is better? How exactly? Edited June 12, 2014 by Halinalle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DOHboy Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 So, randomly clicking 4+ machines as fast as possible is better? How exactly? thats the OTHER thread..Forrest Staff Meeting (Travis Shaw) is starting at 2:00pm in US-131-100-Walnut (11). OP claims clicking faster also increases odds/chances/ etc. that is mostly fluff too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OddballEasyEight Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 am i missing something? fify = fixed it for you was just saying that 3 runs in nothing, 15 is a sample 100 runs begins a pattern 15,000 can start to discuss "random" Use same for RE. I RE'd 20 items not one proc well thats just poor luck. RE 10,000 items and see if you approach their 5% from there go to 1 million items and you start to get server patterns and test local RNG test 10 billion and you can probably approach a true random event and will see patterns of strings lasting 10 or 20 straight RE procs with strings of 1000's with out a proc. Random is random. OP might as well say I stand on my head, cluck like a chicken, count to 30 before I hit the button and it works! I had 5 wins where you truly "random" would only expect 4. Nevermind, I was tired and misread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DOHboy Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Nevermind, I was tired and misread. all good, at least you can take a nap...most others have bigger issues that can't be solved so easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadOrb Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 (edited) Obviously no one read my full post. Yeah I do know how to fully test theories but thank you though and as someone has tested it more then the theory is a non goer. Forums are so funny , read fully next time peeps. I still think there is something in it , maybe the buff is geared towards the mount jackpots and thus it avoids the golden certificate hence why I receive a golden certificate quite often when the buff runs out. Now go test that theory too if you like peeps. Cheers, BadOrb. Edited June 12, 2014 by BadOrb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
branmakmuffin Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Well I do know ( tested a few times last night and got it 3 times in a row today , more testing needed but it looks promising ) that after getting the feeling lucky buff and then going on a kingpin machine , if you don't run out of kingpin tokens or the buff runs out or lose then when the buff runs out you will get a golden certificate on that final go. Winning on the Kingpin machine causes the buff to expire, not the other way 'round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malastare Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 was just saying that 3 runs in nothing, 15 is a sample 100 runs begins a pattern 15,000 can start to discuss "random" If I remember correctly, we can start to give confidence intervals (75%?) on a true/false question after 15 samples. I wasn't trying to say that 15 would prove anything, just that you can't even start to talk about the chances of some event without having at least 15 samples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andryah Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 am i missing something? fify = fixed it for you was just saying that 3 runs in nothing, 15 is a sample 100 runs begins a pattern 15,000 can start to discuss "random" Use same for RE. I RE'd 20 items not one proc well thats just poor luck. RE 10,000 items and see if you approach their 5% from there go to 1 million items and you start to get server patterns and test local RNG test 10 billion and you can probably approach a true random event and will see patterns of strings lasting 10 or 20 straight RE procs with strings of 1000's with out a proc. Random is random. OP might as well say I stand on my head, cluck like a chicken, count to 30 before I hit the button and it works! I had 5 wins where you truly "random" would only expect 4. /Agree. That said... every game of chance I have ever seen played by humans... there are humans playing that are convinced that they know a gimmick to beat the odds, or that the odds are not randomized correctly (simply because they did not win). Heh... I remember way back in the early days of WoW... people claiming that carrying a rabbit's foot (a random critter drop in the game) would improve your odds on things in game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scratcha Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 ... every game of chance I have ever seen played by humans ... You've really got my interest piqued because I thought I'd been around ... Just how many games of chance have you seen that weren't being played by humans? (Can't help thinking of Cassius Marcellus Coolidge's Dogs Playing Poker) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DOHboy Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 If I remember correctly, we can start to give confidence intervals (75%?) on a true/false question after 15 samples. I wasn't trying to say that 15 would prove anything, just that you can't even start to talk about the chances of some event without having at least 15 samples. oh I know, and for a simple coin flip probably 15 is enough to get passed patterns and have reasonable confidence. Was more a FYI to everyone else that thinks small chains of events points to larger issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ikinai Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 You've really got my interest piqued because I thought I'd been around ... Just how many games of chance have you seen that weren't being played by humans? (Can't help thinking of Cassius Marcellus Coolidge's Dogs Playing Poker) I'm pretty sure the squirrels in my neighborhood are playing a game of chance called 'Will that crazy lady run me over today?' when they run out in the street. At least I'd like to think they were betting each other about not being hit by a car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluejayoo Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Hey guys, Are you sick of living daily to daily? Are you tired of casinos always having the edge? ... +10 Internets for you, sir and / or madam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deewe Posted June 12, 2014 Author Share Posted June 12, 2014 That means that your outcome is decided the millisecond you click the machine... not later by the spinning animation. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadOrb Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Winning on the Kingpin machine causes the buff to expire, not the other way 'round. When it expires naturally silly. Roll the wheel at that point has given me many golden certificates but no mounts. Cheers , BadOrb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DOHboy Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 Exactly. so the fact they pretty much disagreed with everything you just said, you agree with them? clicking is completely independent of the animation, infact when I DO click the animation tends to reorient itself to align with the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deewe Posted June 12, 2014 Author Share Posted June 12, 2014 so the fact they pretty much disagreed with everything you just said, you agree with them? clicking is completely independent of the animation, infact when I DO click the animation tends to reorient itself to align with the outcome. The way it works is at the moment you click if the animations aren't aligned then you loose. So we are both right, in the way once you click the outcome is set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Khevar Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 The way it works is at the moment you click if the animations aren't aligned then you loose. So we are both right, in the way once you click the outcome is set. Sounds like snake oil to me. Can anyone else besides Deewe corroborate this fact? Particularly seeing this post: I've clicked with both dead center, and had it finish when I win with both dead center, and neither produced a jackpot. The arrow pointing to any part of the edge wins, and what you win is determined by RNG, not where it finishes. Which would tend to indicate Deewe's theory is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deewe Posted June 12, 2014 Author Share Posted June 12, 2014 (edited) Sounds like snake oil to me. Can anyone else besides Deewe corroborate this fact? Particularly seeing this post: Which would tend to indicate Deewe's theory is wrong. My theory is more about loosing if you are out of the exterior part when clicking. For the center I did win either with center aligned with center or edge with center. Now I would not be surprised if the center aligned with edges was more to a jackpot win as more dangerous... Edited June 12, 2014 by Deewe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jedi_Slayer Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 Well I do know ( tested a few times last night and got it 3 times in a row today , more testing needed but it looks promising ) that after getting the feeling lucky buff and then going on a kingpin machine , if you don't run out of kingpin tokens or the buff runs out or lose then when the buff runs out you will get a golden certificate on that final go. So yeah not so random that part it seems. I shall test it more. Cheers, BadOrb. I did notice that when I had 5-10 kingpin tokens saved and then ran to machine with buff it was almost always hitting right before the buff expired or on my last token. This was not always the case, but i noticed it frequently enough i played it that way and ended up with 57 certs (1.7m spent) could be coincidence but interesting you noticed a similar pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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