EA shareholders meeting: over/under 300k subs?

[Tuscad]

What server are you on that has 2 instances of tatt or nar shaddaa?

 

Drooga's Pleasure Barge had 2 instances on Tatooine 2 days ago. (haven't played since) Granted there were only 4 people on instance 2.

[Shingara]

A subscription model will have different ways to pay to play the game. Time cards are also a part of that model as a single month sub would be. The fact is, free trials are not "paying" accounts in way shape or form.

 

OK listen closley i shall say it again, IF someone puts 1 months worth of subs value on a pre paid card there is no limit to how long that will last, IF someone pays for 1 months subscription it runs out after a month.

Edited July 27, 2012 by Shingara

[cipero]

No, sorry but your wrong, having pre paid time is not the same as subscription, pre paid time doesnt run out after one month, there is no limit on how long an account with pre paid time becomes inactive. Chinas prisons were using pre paid accounts to farm gold with multiboxing which also padded out these numbers. A subscription is rental not pre paid, subscription runs out after one month if you pay for one month, the account then becomes inactive.

 

It's a moot point. Blizzard counts those who play their game by paying money. If you have an issue with how the laws are in China regarding these online transactions, then take it up with them. They count you as a sub if you pay them money.

 

They don't count free trials, Swtor won't count free trials. If Swtor opens up in China it will count the chinese exactly the same way. You can't discount them because they still play and pay.

 

If they had the option in America to use prepaid time, then hell I'd probably do that too. Active Accounts = Subscriptions. It's that simple really.

 

In the MMO the term Subscription isn't used like it is with magazines. I don't buy a yearly subscription to Blizzard or Bioware. You are either subbed, or unsubbed / paying or not paying / active or inactive.

[jarjarloves]

well at 7 30 uk time only 4 servers are heavy rest are Standard

 

almost the same as rifts servers atm 6/10 medium i cant compare swtor to WoW servers thats just unfair got bored scrolling thro high's

 

have you seen the WoW forums? People are screaming for server mergers. IT's not doing well atm

[Tic-]

Geez, with all this hootin and hollerin about the end of the world/this game is dying, I would think they are well under 400k subs.

 

If they are at, as most seem predict here, a quick glance looks like about 700k subs? I don't think thats too bad at all. Yea, everyone, including (especially?) EA/Bio thought this game was the second coming but if they have as many as people here seem to be guessing, i would say they are doing ok.

 

Take WoW out of the equation, and whats the average subs across the board for P2P MMOs?

 

My guess would have been 350k at max from reading these and other doom and gloom boards, but what do i know

Edited July 27, 2012 by Tic-

[Durasturan]

A subscription model will have different ways to pay to play the game. Time cards are also a part of that model as a single month sub would be. The fact is, free trials are not "paying" accounts in way shape or form.

 

The Asian pay model does not function the same as the NA/EU pay model in WoW. They do not buy $15 time cards which give them one month of game time nor do they pay $15 to access the game for one month. That is not how they work. The Asian subs SHOULD NOT be counted equivalent to NA/EU subs because neither the revenue generated by the player, nor the contribution to the community is the same.

 

Asian subs simply are not economically equivalent to NA/EU subs no matter how you slice it. They cost more to support and provide service to, they pay pennies on the dollar, and are far more likely to be legitimate players.

[Shingara]

It's a moot point. Blizzard counts those who play their game by paying money. If you have an issue with how the laws are in China regarding these online transactions, then take it up with them. They count you as a sub if you pay them money.

 

They don't count free trials, Swtor won't count free trials. If Swtor opens up in China it will count the chinese exactly the same way. You can't discount them because they still play and pay.

 

If they had the option in America to use prepaid time, then hell I'd probably do that too. Active Accounts = Subscriptions. It's that simple really.

 

In the MMO the term Subscription isn't used like it is with magazines. I don't buy a yearly subscription to Blizzard or Bioware. You are either subbed, or unsubbed / paying or not paying / active or inactive.

 

Its only moot if you have your head in the sand, someone in the west paying monthly and when there time runs out they cant play and are classed as inactive. If someone in the east puts monetry pay by the hour value on there game it is classed as active aslong as there is credit on the account and the bnet account is active.

Edited July 27, 2012 by Shingara

[belizar]

have you seen the WoW forums? People are screaming for server mergers. IT's not doing well atm

 

tru there is alot low servers but 30+ highs and who knows im not counting lol mediums

 

swtor basicly got 11 servers and cant fill them

[cipero]

Its only moot if you have your head in the sand, someone in the west paying monthly and when there time runs out they cant play and are classed as inactive. If someone in the east puts monetry pay by the hour value on there game it is classed as active aslong as there is credit on the account and the bnet account is active.

 

It's moot because that's how it is, boss. You're debating a system Blizzard has no control over. That's how online transactions are handled in other countries like those in the far east. There is absolutely no way around that unless you stop selling the game in those countries. That's why it's a moot point.

 

An active account is active, there's really no other way to put it. This is not groundbreaking science.

[Emeda]

From March to May they lost 400,000 subscribers. If we assume it continues that trajectory than I'd say it's more like 500k-700k. I'm guessing 650k.

 

BTW just to clarify this statement. This does not mean 400k people cancelled their subs but that their subs dropped from 1.7 to 1.3 million.

[cipero]

tru there is alot low servers but 30+ highs and who knows im not counting lol mediums

 

swtor basicly got 11 servers and cant fill them

 

People also are forgetting that half the population is playing the Beta for MoP, and also it usually gets a little inactive at the end of an expansion when the same content has been out for months. I mean hell that's normal, you see it here.

[Durasturan]

It's a moot point. Blizzard counts those who play their game by paying money. If you have an issue with how the laws are in China regarding these online transactions, then take it up with them. They count you as a sub if you pay them money.

 

They don't count free trials, Swtor won't count free trials. If Swtor opens up in China it will count the chinese exactly the same way. You can't discount them because they still play and pay.

 

If they had the option in America to use prepaid time, then hell I'd probably do that too. Active Accounts = Subscriptions. It's that simple really.

 

In the MMO the term Subscription isn't used like it is with magazines. I don't buy a yearly subscription to Blizzard or Bioware. You are either subbed, or unsubbed / paying or not paying / active or inactive.

 

There are only TWO reasons a player should care at all about the number of subs and the direction those subs are going.

 

1. More subs = more money coming into the company which means more and bigger developments and content added. Subs affect the amount of content the developer will create and the rate at which that content is added.

 

2. Grouping opportunities. The more subs there are the more opportunities there will be for you as a member of the community.

 

Asian players do not bring nearly the revenue that NA/EU subs bring in. They do not pay a sub fee and the small fee they do pay is a fraction of the EU, on top of that the cost to support these players is more so the profit is smaller. These players also do not offer the same grouping opportunities as NA/EU players because they either are playing on servers that NA/EU does not or cannot have access to or they are not legitimate accounts, they belong to gold farmers and bots. By any metric, 1 Asian sub /= 1 NA/EU sub

[Sharee]

When? Im not saying that it has never happened but the person who said it today is completely lying. all but 2 servers that are german are standard or below and i am sorry but you dont have 2 instances on 2 planets when your at standard.

 

Completely lying, eh?

 

1, There are six heavy EU servers RIGHT NOW. I checked. Out of 13(non-locked). That's almost half.

2, Even assuming you are right and the server is standard, all the new players are playing roughly in the same zone, give or take one. That means there well may be two or even three Nar Shadaas regardless of how heavy the total population is, because the players who joined at the same time(when free trial started) and are levelling at roughly the same pace will all be inside the same zone, forcing more instances.

Edited July 27, 2012 by Sharee

[Shingara]

It's moot because that's how it is, boss. You're debating a system Blizzard has no control over. That's how online transactions are handled in other countries like those in the far east. There is absolutely no way around that unless you stop selling the game in those countries. That's why it's a moot point.

 

An active account is active, there's really no other way to put it. This is not groundbreaking science.

 

I aint your boss cos i would have fired you by now. People are stating that wow has 10 mil active subscribers when in actual fact it has never had over 4.2 mil active subscribers at its peak, it has had 10 mil + active accounts not subscribers. It matters not how its payed for its the value presented via the value of the western market subscription locked into a set value for a set month with varying discounts for 1 month subs to an annual pass.

 

 

And with that i bid you all good night as im off to the pub to watch the olympics.

Edited July 27, 2012 by Shingara

[dandamanno]

Unless you are an analsyt with access to the numbers you (anyone) have no idea. You think you know and thats fine but the shear amount of assumptions you are making means your guess no better than most. Opinions are just opinions. You have no facts. Well see soon enough, maybe yours it the correct guess but i would not bet any money on it.

 

Sigh...I really think some people do not understand what "facts" are.

 

It's like a detective investigating a crime. They look for facts in order to point them in the right direction of a suspect. If they have a gun with fingerprints, motive and opportunity they can make a reasonable guess as to who the killer is. Do you think they give up just because their were no witnesses? You use the facts that are available to you.

 

And despite what you may think, it is in fact better than just picking up a random guy off the street and saying, "Well you are as likely as anyone else seeing as how nobody actually saw the killer!"

 

If you have a problem with the math, or the assumptions made, they have been discussed ad nauseum in the "Estimate of concurrent logins" thread. Go check it out.

 

Could all the assumptions be wrong? Oh sure, it could be (in particular the 10% figure for average population logged on at any time. If it were say 5% instead then you could double my 500k estimate to 1 million.) But at some point you have to look at the odds of it being wrong in the face of overwhelming circumstantial evidence and choose which argument you wish to support.

 

I just want to reiterate that I have no agenda here. I want SWTOR to succeed. I want it to get better. I think the two go hand in hand.

 

[bows out of discussion]

[Goretzu]

No....the Asian players are also paying a price to play..in other words....there is a subscription involved. How hard is that to understand? If EA wants to count the free trials then they should word thier numbers along the line of.."we have at this time, 1 million players enjoying the game."

 

Maybe, but I'm pretty sure they do count trials like pretty much every MMORPG around.

[Valkirus]

Its only moot if you have your head in the sand, someone in the west paying monthly and when there time runs out they cant play and are classed as inactive. If someone in the east puts monetry pay by the hour value on there game it is classed as active aslong as there is credit on the account and the bnet account is active.

 

I agree the time cards or any money they put on the game to play it is a a active paying account. But the key here is "paying". IF I click on Rift's subscription page, it also will show time cards as a alternative way to play the game. I am sure those would be figured along with any subs numbers. And this is how it should be done. But to count free trials is nothing but being deceptive if you are reporting "subscription" numbers.

Edited July 27, 2012 by Valkirus

[cipero]

I aint your boss cos i would have fired you by now. People are stating that wow has 10 mil active subscribers when in actual fact it has never had over 4.2 mil active subscribers at its peak, it has had 10 mil + active accounts not subscribers. It matters not how its payed for its the value presented via the value of the western market subscription locked into a set value for a set month with varying discounts for 1 month subs to an annual pass.

 

Obviously you are mistaken. Otherwise they wouldn't be able to get away with boasting 10 mil at their earnings calls. Don't you think someone would've raised a fraud issue if what you are saying was the truth? Somewhere along the line you began to think your logic was correct, and that's sad, man. WoW is the industry giant, Swtor is no where close to as popular in the mmo market. Stop being salty about it, and play what you love man.

[Durasturan]

People also are forgetting that half the population is playing the Beta for MoP, and also it usually gets a little inactive at the end of an expansion when the same content has been out for months. I mean hell that's normal, you see it here.

 

Guestimating populations based on hearsay and random player behaviors, guessing based on vague statements and metrics like "heavy," and "standard" is no way to evaluate how many people play the game. If you want to see the bottom line, look at Activision Blizzard's quarterly financial reports. Online subscription revenue has dropped for 7 quarters in a row and it is roughly 40% of what it was in Q1 2010. They have lost millions of actual paying subs and have replaced them with bots and farmers and try to mislead the public about it. Read the Q4 2011 Financial Report, read the fine print. It clearly explains that they have lost a lot of subs, it says that flat out,

[Goretzu]

Obviously you are mistaken. Otherwise they wouldn't be able to get away with boasting 10 mil at their earnings calls. Don't you think someone would've raised a fraud issue if what you are saying was the truth? Somewhere along the line you began to think your logic was correct, and that's sad, man. WoW is the industry giant, Swtor is no where close to as popular in the mmo market. Stop being salty about it, and play what you love man.

 

Active accounts are just that - they aren't the same thing as paid subscriptions, although paid subscription will be active accounts, if you see what I mean.

 

It's not fraudulent to refer to many things under active accounts, it just the usual PR guff.

[Valkirus]

Guestimating populations based on hearsay and random player behaviors, guessing based on vague statements and metrics like "heavy," and "standard" is no way to evaluate how many people play the game. If you want to see the bottom line, look at Activision Blizzard's quarterly financial reports. Online subscription revenue has dropped for 7 quarters in a row and it is roughly 40% of what it was in Q1 2010. They have lost millions of actual paying subs and have replaced them with bots and farmers and try to mislead the public about it. Read the Q4 2011 Financial Report, read the fine print. It clearly explains that they have lost a lot of subs, it says that flat out,

 

Thier subs figures "had" dropped 7 quarters in a roll. Not " has ".. Thier last 2 quarter reports showed them having close to the same number of subs. In otherwise, they are stable at 10.2 million. And in noway down by 40%. In thier peak during WOTLK, they had about 12 million subs. Look up the MMOChamp report on that very subject if you think I am wrong. Now the next one may very well show a decrease in those numbers. It is due out next month.

Edited July 27, 2012 by Valkirus

[Valkirus]

Active accounts are just that - they aren't the same thing as paid subscriptions, although paid subscription will be active accounts, if you see what I mean.

 

It's not fraudulent to refer to many things under active accounts, it just the usual PR guff.

 

Except if they use the terms "paying or subscriptions" it would be if they counted the free trials.

[Kalfear]

I'm going to put my guess in for the sub base. I'm going to guess they report a 450k "player base" which we can understand as 150k trial accounts and 300k subs. Over or under?

 

<edited for spelling>

 

Well with free trials and all that added in to pad the numbers it wouldnt shock me to hear around 1 million, probably a little under!

 

BUT THATS WITH FREE TRIAL ACCOUNTS PADDING THE NUMBERS.

 

Personally I think they are around their minimum mark of 500k for PAID subscribers

 

I do think they will take a LARGE HIT when the 6 monthers time finally runs out!

 

I was a 6 month subscription and my game time ends in 19 days.

Ill be renewing on a month to month basis myself, but I am definately in the huge minority from all Ive spoken to on this front.

 

All is not lost though. I suspect TOR will have a small uptick 1-3 months after GW2 releases when people realize its not the saving grace of MMORPGs, as some fanbois been shouting for well over a year now on forums.

[Goretzu]

Except if they use the terms "paying or subscriptions" it would be if they counted the free trials.

 

Yeah it would be, but they don't use that terminology, I guess for that very reason.

[DarthTHC]

http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/trends

 

Take a look at that graph. See how ever since the free transfers, the red (high) line has crossed the green (light) line on the weekend? See how it doesn't for the most recent weekend?

 

See how the green line is trending upwards while the red one trends downwards?

 

Take a look at the December to January period. See anything familiar?