MMO's Do Not Die.

[Emeda]

What evidence do you have for this? I believe the Server Transfers and Group Finder were huge improvements that should increase subscription retention in a big way.

 

What evidence? Howe about the amount of servers and the level they were at when they said they had 1.3 million subs.

 

There were more than 26 servers that hit above standard and there were lots of standard servers (maybe about 50-80) and then there were all the light servers that still actually hade some people on them. Now we have 26 servers where only about 4 hit very heavy or above and the rest are at standard on heavy.

 

Of course the sub retention rate should increase in a big way. When all you have are SW and Bioware fans mostly left that are not going to quit untill the plug is pulled then the percentage should go up.

 

The server transfers and group finder didnt fix any problems. what they did was temporarily hide the problems. They didnt fix anything. The problem is how the game was developed, which those two things will not solve.

[jarjarloves]

What they said is"To-date, we have sold through more than 2 million units" Thats more than 2 million, what number above that we do not know yet.

They also said sites could not track origin sales so any site like http://www.vgchartz.com/game/31584/star-wars-the-old-republic/Global/ will not include origin sales. Please explain how they got those numbers when Bioware just told us that they couldnt track them?

 

So my math is correct and all you are doing as assuming what you want to because you would rather think that they only lost 500k subs instead of 1 million.

 

That was Biowares intention. To say they sold more than 2 million (they did not lie since 2.7 million is more than 2 million) and with saying above 2 million it makes it look like they only lost 300k which is a 85% retention rate. Now if they would have actually told you the real number of 2.7 then thats about a 62% retention rate. Doesnt sound as good does it. Now dont forget in the money numbers they added in all 2.7 million because cancellations cannot be seen there.

 

Thats Bioware/Ea saying things in their wording to make it look best for them.

 

Lets also not forget that when they dropped from 1.7 to 1.3 they said 400k which also isnt the real truth. Subs dropped 400k but thats not the actual amount of subs that cancelled in that time. Again tell it in a way that makes them look best.

 

BTW SWG'sbiggest sub losses where when they released the CU and again when they released the NGE. The game lost subs because they changed the game in a large way. SWTOR's biggest losses are now. SWG had about 300k subs for 2 full years. I believe SWTOR is actually close to that now in only 7 months when they started at 2.7+ while its been said that SWG never sold over 1.5 total.

 

ok wow first off SWG did NOT have 300k for 2 years. It maybe had 300k at its peak but it died fast hence the entire reason they went to the CU and NGE. It's biggest losses where after launch.

 

Read up on it from someone who ACTUALLY worked on the game

http://rubenfield.com/?p=86

 

as for your failure to be able to read. EA HAS to tell the actual sub numbers and sales. the 2.2 Million number wasn't reported until Feb 1st when they made their sales call. VG chartz ORIGIANLLY had 1 million box sales it was changed to the 2.2 million AFTER the sales call. HENCE the line in the sales call about how 3rd party sites don't have the full number.

 

EA would HAVE to tell everyone they lost 1 million subs. It's not even a question they have no choice since they are a publlicly traded company.

 

 

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainmentnewsbuzz/2011/12/star-wars-the-old-republic-game.html

 

see 1 million sold. The problem with VGchartz is they are constantly readjusting their numbers until they get an official number. If you actually looked at it back in January the sales numbers were fluctuating. One week they would be up next week they would be down. They now stopped adjusting it since they got the official number from EA.

 

But again if they lost 1 million subs they would have to announce it. Not to mention you are saying that SWTOR had close to 3 million box sale? Thats more then WoW has in the US alone. Don't be stupid use some common sense.

 

 

 

 

Edit: Wait did you just say that SWTOR is at 300k now??? Ok In a few days when they release their numbers you will owe me a HUGE apology for saying such stupid things. Tell you what if subs are closer to 300k then they are to say 750k I will apologize to you and admit I know nothing about games, business or trends.

 

However if the subs are closer to 750k then YOU owe ME an apology and have to admit you know nothing about trends, games, or business as well as you need to stop lying about basic facts.

Edited July 26, 2012 by jarjarloves

[Daethorz]

If swtor goes P2W i will expect it to become nonexistant within 6 months of that time.

[Blattan]

It is like watching two kids argue on the playground... "Batman can beat up Superman! No he can't! Yes he can! Nuh-uh! Uh-huh!"

 

The realty is that there isn't any data right now that has any relevance to the state of the game. At worst, it is data that is never released. And at best, it is data that is approximately three months old.

 

Every stance on the state of the game is purely conjecture at this point. Even after the Investors call, it will still be mostly conjecture.

Funny thing is, only "defenders" of the game demand data to be shown - even though they do not have data themselves.

Edited July 26, 2012 by Blattan

[mdob]

What evidence? Howe about the amount of servers and the level they were at when they said they had 1.3 million subs.

 

There were more than 26 servers that hit above standard and there were lots of standard servers (maybe about 50-80) and then there were all the light servers that still actually hade some people on them. Now we have 26 servers where only about 4 hit very heavy or above and the rest are at standard on heavy.

 

Of course the sub retention rate should increase in a big way. When all you have are SW and Bioware fans mostly left that are not going to quit untill the plug is pulled then the percentage should go up.

 

The server transfers and group finder didnt fix any problems. what they did was temporarily hide the problems. They didnt fix anything. The problem is how the game was developed, which those two things will not solve.

 

Server load is not an accurate measurement to predict subscription numbers.

[mdob]

It is like watching two kids argue on the playground... "Batman can beat up Superman! No he can't! Yes he can! Nuh-uh! Uh-huh!"

 

Superman can definitely beat up Batman

[WickedDjinn]

Tell that to Asheron's Call 2. Another noob commenting on a genre he is new to...

 

I've been playing MMOs since before there were MMOs. Back when all we had were text based Mudds.

 

But again, besides the point.

 

Asherons Call 2 is one of those rare exceptions already addressed. It died because of a set of circumstances that simply can't be applied anywhere else. Bringing that game up as a retort only betrays your own lack of knowledge.

 

It's as ridiculous as the mentions of SWG, which really only proves my point. SWG survived despite being a train wreck for years and ONLY shut down because Lucas Arts doesn't want more than one MMO floating around at a time.

 

TOR might slow down. TOR will be restructured, but it's not shutting down anytime soon.

 

But if it's more amusing for you to cling to this irrational 'The sky is falling' mentality, by all means.

 

Could TOR shut down tomorrow? Of course. But the chance of it happening even within the next two or three years is minute.

[Goretzu]

Superman can definitely beat up Batman

 

http://www.blogcdn.com/www.comicsalliance.com/media/2010/02/batmanvssuperman.jpg

 

 

 

You all need to get a life and stop the SWTOR Marathon. If you all had just taken your time with all 8 slots, then you wouldn't have a problem with end game content and being bored. As for bugs, there are always bugs and actually this game has been the most bug free MMO for me thus far. No game will ever be bug free! Actually, the major shake up for SWTOR came from the purchase of BIOWARE from EA and probably the huge development over costs for the game. EA is still trying to get their act together after the purchase and the following reorg that is always the result of a large corporate purchase.

 

That's not true. For a start if you'd levelled 8 toons to L50 your have at least been through the same content 4 time (and possibly as much as 8 time), which in itself is a HUGE problem.

[jarjarloves]

It is like watching two kids argue on the playground... "Batman can beat up Superman! No he can't! Yes he can! Nuh-uh! Uh-huh!"

 

The realty is that there isn't any data right now that has any relevance to the state of the game. At worst, it is data that is never released. And at best, it is data that is approximately three months old.

 

Every stance on the state of the game is purely conjecture at this point. Even after the Investors call, it will still be mostly conjecture.

Funny thing is, only "defenders" of the game demand data to be shown - even though they do not have data themselves.

 

actually it will be a month old not 3 months.

 

The reason the "defenders" are the only one demanding data is because the "attackers" don't need facts or data to make claims.

 

I could go and say WoW is down to 1 million subscirbers and then say prove me wrong. There would be no way to that with out the data.

[Emeda]

ok wow first off SWG did NOT have 300k for 2 years. It maybe had 300k at its peak but it died fast hence the entire reason they went to the CU and NGE. It's biggest losses where after launch.

 

Read up on it from someone who ACTUALLY worked on the game

http://rubenfield.com/?p=86

 

as for your failure to be able to read. EA HAS to tell the actual sub numbers and sales. the 2.2 Million number wasn't reported until Feb 1st when they made their sales call. VG chartz ORIGIANLLY had 1 million box sales it was changed to the 2.2 million AFTER the sales call. HENCE the line in the sales call about how 3rd party sites don't have the full number.

 

EA would HAVE to tell everyone they lost 1 million subs. It's not even a question they have no choice since they are a publlicly traded company.

 

 

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainmentnewsbuzz/2011/12/star-wars-the-old-republic-game.html

 

see 1 million sold. The problem with VGchartz is they are constantly readjusting their numbers until they get an official number. If you actually looked at it back in January the sales numbers were fluctuating. One week they would be up next week they would be down. They now stopped adjusting it since they got the official number from EA.

 

But again if they lost 1 million subs they would have to announce it. Not to mention you are saying that SWTOR had close to 3 million box sale? Thats more then WoW has in the US alone. Don't be stupid use some common sense.

 

 

 

 

Edit: Wait did you just say that SWTOR is at 300k now??? Ok In a few days when they release their numbers you will owe me a HUGE apology for saying such stupid things. Tell you what if subs are closer to 300k then they are to say 750k I will apologize to you and admit I know nothing about games, business or trends.

 

However if the subs are closer to 750k then YOU owe ME an apology and have to admit you know nothing about trends, games, or business as well as you need to stop lying about basic facts.

 

They updated their number after the call when EA told them the numbersbut still only came out to 2,020,000 (rounded offand to the 4th of feb) when they must have stated the 2.2 million that you mentioned because they must state actual numbers.

 

So w emust believe what you say because you have the real numbers but they dont add up.

 

They also say in the may EA call

"Let me provide you with an update on STAR WARS. Through the end of the quarter, approximately 2.4 million units have sold through. In our last call, we indicated that we have 1.7 million active subscribers, and as of the end of April, we now have 1.3 million. So the substantial portion of the decrease is due to casual and trial players, cycling out of the subscriber base driving up the overall percentage of paying subscribers."

 

Your going to jump on the see how could it be 2.7 when they say 2.4 now. Again its in the wording. Units could be considered boxes since digital sales have no real form.

 

But even if it was a total of 2.4 then that means that from the 2 million (or was it 2.2 million) from feb to the 2.4 million in may that would mean they lost 600l to 800k in the feb-may timeperiod. But they say 400k in their posts. Dont they have to give actual numbers like you said? Since they did give them where are they? I want to see when they said how many subs they lost from feb-may. We know the answer is 600k to 8000k by the other numbers that they game that had to be actual numbers.

 

Thats the entire thing with them. With the way they do it we never have 100% positive proof because they give no definite answers. Even with your so called actual numbers they still dont add up to the rest of their actual numbers do they.

[Emeda]

actually it will be a month old not 3 months.

 

The reason the "defenders" are the only one demanding data is because the "attackers" don't need facts or data to make claims.

 

I could go and say WoW is down to 1 million subscirbers and then say prove me wrong. There would be no way to that with out the data.

 

The attackers are giving you data except you dont want to use it because its not official, therefor its not valid.

 

Then they will just use specualation with no actual data as finding in what they say.

[jarjarloves]

The attackers are giving you data except you dont want to use it because its not official, therefor its not valid.

 

Then they will just use specualation with no actual data as finding in what they say.

 

by all means show me the data.

[Emeda]

by all means show me the data.

 

Torstatus

 

But let me guess its invalid because they dont know what light and heavy and full is and Bioware changes the level of them every other day right.

[jarjarloves]

Torstatus

 

But let me guess its invalid because they dont know what light and heavy and full is and Bioware changes the level of them every other day right.

 

... this is a joke right?

 

explain to me how Torstatus shows the number of subscriptions

Edited July 26, 2012 by jarjarloves

[Andryah]

I notice no one mentioned the last MMO EA published... APB... EA shut it down just 2 months after launch because it wasn't making a profit.

 

It was later bought by a different company, improved, and relaunched, but EA shut it down first. So it is very silly to think EA won't shut down an under-performing MMO.

 

Your use of fiction discredits you.

 

APB was created and published by Realtime Worlds. EAs sole particiaption in this MMO property was to act as distritutor.

 

Now, let's look for a moment at DAOC, because it puts things into perspective from a business standpoint: A decade old, no longer doing expansions, all content is free to download, has a monthly sub, down to one consolidated server (not counting the tiny Gaheris population) and about 10-15K monthly subs. Yet EA has never tried to shut it down as far as anyone can tell, and it continues on month after month on a dwindling populations of holdouts.

Edited July 26, 2012 by Andryah

[Andryah]

... this is a joke right?

 

explain to me how Torstatus shows the number of subscriptions

 

It doesn't.

 

But facts have never stood in the way of Emeda prosecuting hatred for the game.

[Goretzu]

Now, let's look for a moment at DAOC, because it puts things into perspective from a business standpoint: A decade old, no longer doing expansions, all content is free to download, has a monthly sub, down to one consolidated server (not counting the tiny Gaheris population) and about 10-15K monthly subs. Yet EA has never tried to shut it down as far as anyone can tell, and it continues on month after month on a dwindling populations of holdouts.

 

There is no licence for DAoC they own it lock, stock and barrel.

[Andryah]

There is no licence for DAoC they own it lock, stock and barrel.

 

What is your point? It's an MMO, it clearly is waaaaaay into twilight yet they leave it open, with subs at a scale of less then 20K subs. Now, as an old DAOC veteran, I am surprised it is still open and taking $15 subs.... but there you have it. SWTOR even at sub 500k sub assumptions is orders of magnitude larger scale revenue (and hence cost of operations to continue to produce content and maintain the game).

 

All a license does is authorize the game producer to use the IP covered under the licence. It has nothing to do with te size and profit level of the game. It adds to the cost basis for operations, but LA and EA have already said SWTOR operates on a royalty system based on subs.

 

People in these forums are so fixated on declining subs = EA kills the game. That's not they way it works. They simply operate the game property at a cost scale that fits it's revenue. Like they do with everything in their portfolio for that matter.

Edited July 26, 2012 by Andryah

[jarjarloves]

There is no licence for DAoC they own it lock, stock and barrel.

 

if it's licensed then there is actually less of a chance for it to get shut down as they have a contract with the owner of the license. That could mean they have to keep it running for so many years.

 

I think a better example would be WAR. There you have a licencee with Games Workshop a license they have extended and that game maybe has a few thousand subscribers. I doubt it even has 10,000. Yet EA still has it running.

 

Now Swtor has probably closer to 750k subs and they said they only need 500k to make a profit. So until it gets under 500k i wouldn't worry about it going F2P

[Fornix]

There is no licence for DAoC they own it lock, stock and barrel.

 

We do not know what the license with Lucas is like, it could be a fixed commision, but it could just as well be a percentage based system such as 10% revenue goes to Lucas Arts. If it's percentage based, then even with 15k members, it could still keep operating.

[Goretzu]

What is your point? It's an MMO, it clearly is waaaaaay into twilight yet they leave it open, with subs at a scale of less then 20K subs. Now, as an old DAOC veteran, I am surprised it is still open and taking $15 subs.... but there you have it. SWTOR even at sub 500k sub assumptions is orders of magnitude larger scale revenue (and hence cost of operations to continue to produce content and maintain the game).

 

All a license does is authorize the game producer to use the IP covered under the licence. It has nothing to do with te size and profit level of the game. It adds to the cost basis for operations, but LA and EA have already said SWTOR operates on a royalty system based on subs.

 

People in these forums are so fixated on declining subs = EA kills the game. That's not they way it works. They simply operate the game property at a cost scale that fits it's revenue. Like they do with everything in their portfolio for that matter.

 

 

My point it is: without a licence a decade old MMORPG with only 1 server can still turn a reasonable profit with very few subs (relatively).

 

On the other hand though a license can keep an MMORPG going simply because it is too expensive to get out of, or it blocks your competitors.

 

In SWTORs case I would imagine they'll do what they did with WAR and mothball it, if they decide they aren't going to make enough from continuing to develope it.

[mangarrage]

The only thing this post bring to light is really how amazing it is to a ton of people how this game unfolded.

 

I was never a this is a wow killer kinda fanboi, but man I was so sure this was going to be the game I played for years and years

 

And we all wanted it to be

 

And now there are posts talking about how we will be able to play this game for awhile cause mmos never die

It's honestly is a such a huge turnaround at least for me

 

I knew pre server merge and even though it livened up servers, the game is the same. And really it isn't lack of people "on the fleet", it just really is a sub par game in almost every way.

The class stories, which they made as their highlight, I think really came through. I enjoyed them and it made levelling my first character on both side very enjoyable, sadly everything else is just average.

 

This really should have been a console single player just like the others. And it wouldve been the best in the series by far

[jarjarloves]

We do not know what the license with Lucas is like, it could be a fixed commision, but it could just as well be a percentage based system such as 10% revenue goes to Lucas Arts. If it's percentage based, then even with 15k members, it could still keep operating.

 

an excellent point. My money would be on a percentage base as SWG was running for over 9 years with less then 50k subscribers.

[jarjarloves]

They updated their number after the call when EA told them the numbersbut still only came out to 2,020,000 (rounded offand to the 4th of feb) when they must have stated the 2.2 million that you mentioned because they must state actual numbers.

 

So w emust believe what you say because you have the real numbers but they dont add up.

 

They also say in the may EA call

"Let me provide you with an update on STAR WARS. Through the end of the quarter, approximately 2.4 million units have sold through. In our last call, we indicated that we have 1.7 million active subscribers, and as of the end of April, we now have 1.3 million. So the substantial portion of the decrease is due to casual and trial players, cycling out of the subscriber base driving up the overall percentage of paying subscribers."

 

Your going to jump on the see how could it be 2.7 when they say 2.4 now. Again its in the wording. Units could be considered boxes since digital sales have no real form.

 

But even if it was a total of 2.4 then that means that from the 2 million (or was it 2.2 million) from feb to the 2.4 million in may that would mean they lost 600l to 800k in the feb-may timeperiod. But they say 400k in their posts. Dont they have to give actual numbers like you said? Since they did give them where are they? I want to see when they said how many subs they lost from feb-may. We know the answer is 600k to 8000k by the other numbers that they game that had to be actual numbers.

 

Thats the entire thing with them. With the way they do it we never have 100% positive proof because they give no definite answers. Even with your so called actual numbers they still dont add up to the rest of their actual numbers do they.

I honestly dont' know what to say. Your posts are completely disorganized and it's hard to make sense of what you attempted to say. This is probably why you are having such a hard time understanding the earnings call.

[Blattan]

actually it will be a month old not 3 months.

 

Really? The last EA Earnings statement was released May 7th, 2012.

 

May 7th, to June 7th is 1 month. June 7th, to July 7th is 2 months. July 7th to July 26th makes it... What was that? 1 Month?

 

How does that math work out?

 

Or are you going off of other financial data that can attest to the state of SW:ToR?

 

The reason the "defenders" are the only one demanding data is because the "attackers" don't need facts or data to make claims.

 

I could go and say WoW is down to 1 million subscirbers and then say prove me wrong. There would be no way to that with out the data.

 

Oh? Then why aren't you going after all the posters that claim "SW:ToR is doing just fine!" (or anything similar) and harassing them for their data? I mean, if you plan on trolling, at least go all the way... Don't half *** it.