Subs down 25%

[Mallorik]

look at the start of wowcraft, it had a SIMILAR subscriptions hiccup in approximately the same period of time as swtor. Look at THIS GRAPH: follow the wow west and swtor west... both shoot up to around 2mil then drop down by 100-400k. probably because of people like in these forums that naysay and complain. they'll go away, the company will continue to make improvements, and they'll probably come back... to complain about something else.

 

I do not dispute that swtor could be an mmo juggernaught, in fact im praying that it does. But wow has raised the bar for what mmos need to be super successful, swtor doesnt have it.

 

Rift didnt have it at launch either and they didnt start to get it into the game until they were already bleeding subs for months, they were able to save the game but it still hasnt recovered.

 

Swtor has star wrs on its side so it definately has the edge.

[DarthVindictus]

Ok...so about 800k people are recently cancelled and waiting for their subs to expire. Really? He's not far off in saying that? I'm sorry, but that's a completely ridiculous concept.

 

 

 

You're making the assumption that every subscriber is playing 24/7 and are evenly distributed, and that's completely erroneous. I'm not saying that every single one of those 1.3 mil are active players because they simply aren't, but to try to argue that the majority aren't by using flawed math isn't any better.

 

My estimate is about 1/3 of that. I anticipate about 200-300k people that are only counted due to the free month (I'm in that boat myself) or have recently cancelled after 1.2

 

I figure roughly 1 million even give or take 50,000 people actually play the game, less do so regularly.

Edited May 13, 2012 by DarthVindictus

[princey]

My estimate is a little under half that. I anticipate about 200-300k people that are only counted due to the free month (I'm in that boat myself) or have recently cancelled after 1.2

 

I figure roughly 1 million even give or take 50,000 people actually play the game, less do so regularly.

 

Very reasonable. I don't disagree. And the game will be fine with that many once the server transfers start.

[Frostvein]

look at the start of wowcraft, it had a SIMILAR subscriptions hiccup in approximately the same period of time as swtor. Look at THIS GRAPH: follow the wow west and swtor west... both shoot up to around 2mil then drop down by 100-400k. probably because of people like in these forums that naysay and complain. they'll go away, the company will continue to make improvements, and they'll probably come back... to complain about something else.

 

Except that its not 2004 and the market is far more saturated then it was back then.

 

Further, I counter your graph with this graph - http://www.chartgo.com/savedcharts/ff183fffaa.png

 

as far as I'm concerned, you managed to turn 1.1 million out of the 2.4 million people that bought the game away, despite having an IP from one of the most beloved franchises ever.

 

its not doom and gloom, but acting like this is fine and

" is just silly. Edited May 13, 2012 by Frostvein

[Wolfeisberg]

look at the start of wowcraft, it had a SIMILAR subscriptions hiccup in approximately the same period of time as swtor. Look at THIS GRAPH: follow the wow west and swtor west... both shoot up to around 2mil then drop down by 100-400k. probably because of people like in these forums that naysay and complain. they'll go away, the company will continue to make improvements, and they'll probably come back... to complain about something else.

 

I don't see any dips at all for WoW-West. I see it plateaued for a short time, like for 2 months, and then it rose again, but no dips around the 2 million mark. In fact there was no dips till after they hit 12 million.

[Mallorik]

Except that its not 2004 and the market is far more saturated then it was back then.

 

Further, I counter your graph with this graph - http://www.chartgo.com/savedcharts/ff183fffaa.png

 

as far as I'm concerned, you managed to turn 1.1 million out of the 2.4 million people that bought the game away, despite having an IP from one of the most beloved franchises ever.

 

its not doom and gloom, but acting like this is fine and

" is just silly.

 

hey atleast swtor isnt as bad off as warhammer and conan was. lol

 

And can someone photoshop a bioware t-shirt on kevin bacon?

" is just silly. it would be abolutely perfect for the fanboys. Edited May 14, 2012 by Mallorik

[Dokar]

I do not dispute that swtor could be an mmo juggernaught, in fact im praying that it does. But wow has raised the bar for what mmos need to be super successful, swtor doesnt have it.

 

Rift didnt have it at launch either and they didnt start to get it into the game until they were already bleeding subs for months, they were able to save the game but it still hasnt recovered.

 

Swtor has star wrs on its side so it definately has the edge.

 

What I see from that graph is WOW west going flat halfway through 2005 for about 6 months then continuing to climb till a drop in 2009 ... I don't see a large drop for WOW until 2009.

[Mallorik]

What I see from that graph is WOW west going flat halfway through 2005 for about 6 months then continuing to climb till a drop in 2009 ... I don't see a large drop for WOW until 2009.

 

I didnt even look at his graph, it doesnt matter if wow dropped or not, this isnt 2004 and that isnt the wow they are competing against.

[DarthVindictus]

look at the start of wowcraft, it had a SIMILAR subscriptions hiccup in approximately the same period of time as swtor. Look at THIS GRAPH: follow the wow west and swtor west... both shoot up to around 2mil then drop down by 100-400k. probably because of people like in these forums that naysay and complain. they'll go away, the company will continue to make improvements, and they'll probably come back... to complain about something else.

 

I don't see any hiccup, it goes to 2 mil then stays there briefly then continues climbing up.

 

There isn't a hiccup in WoW's subscription levels until 2009 after Lich King had been out for awhile.and the one big hiccup happened when China temporarily banned World of Warcraft.

 

Sorry dude but SW:TOR is following the pattern of Rift, Warhammer, and Age of Conan, the so called "WoW killers", not World of Warcraft.

[DarthVindictus]

Very reasonable. I don't disagree. And the game will be fine with that many once the server transfers start.

 

Yeah, server transfers are the #1 thing they have to do to improve quality of life for people playing. It's not a permanent solution to falling subscription numbers, but it'll help stabilize things for awhile while they decide how to fix things to stop losing and start gaining customers. Likely, they will not be able to do so with a regular patch. it will take an expansion, change of business model, or a relaunch. Something big and heavily publicized that will bring in a lot of new people, and in general, the quality of the MMO aspects of the game have to increase dramatically to retain people.

[Mallorik]

Yeah, server transfers are the #1 thing they have to do to improve quality of life for people playing. It's not a permanent solution to falling subscription numbers, but it'll help stabilize things for awhile while they decide how to fix things to stop losing and start gaining customers. Likely, they will not be able to do so with a regular patch. it will take an expansion, change of business model, or a relaunch. Something big and heavily publicized that will bring in a lot of new people, and in general, the quality of the MMO aspects of the game have to increase dramatically to retain people.

 

I agree that they need to fix the "quality of life" stuff first to slow down losses but i dont think they need to change their buisness model (f2p) or wait for an expansion. if they can get people to stop leaving and start enjoying it before too many leave word of mouth will spread. everyone knows someone who plays a different game, all you need to do is fix the game and people will coem back, you dont need an expansion for that.

[MaverickXIV]

despite having an IP from one of the most beloved franchises ever.

Yeah, if Star Wars Galaxies, Lord of the Rings: Online, Warhammer Online , and Star Trek Online, have taught us anything, it's that you can easily use a popular, pre-existing IP to ride easily into success.

[JeramieCrowe]

I don't see any hiccup, it goes to 2 mil then stays there briefly then continues climbing up.

 

There isn't a hiccup in WoW's subscription levels until 2009 after Lich King had been out for awhile.and the one big hiccup happened when China temporarily banned World of Warcraft.

 

Sorry dude but SW:TOR is following the pattern of Rift, Warhammer, and Age of Conan, the so called "WoW killers", not World of Warcraft.

 

TOR is following the pattern of pretty much every MMO ever released including WoW. Surge at launch, dropoff afterward.

 

We're not out of that typical window yet. But we are close. And I will agree with you that if BioWare wants to enjoy a steadying or an atypical upward trend, they really REALLY have their work cut out for them.

 

And a 1.3 Q&A slated for May 25th is NOT a good sign... The fact that it's not even on PTS yet is not a good sign. At least SR hinted that transfers are coming before 1.3. But, still, transfers really HAVE to be this month to stop the bleeding.

Edited May 14, 2012 by JeramieCrowe

[evildestroyer]

TOR is following the pattern of pretty much every MMO ever released including WoW. Surge at launch, dropoff afterward.

 

We're not out of that typical window yet. But we are close. And I will agree with you that if BioWare wants to enjoy a steadying or an atypical upward trend, they really REALLY have their work cut out for them.

 

And a 1.3 Q&A slated for May 25th is NOT a good sign... The fact that it's not even on PTS yet is not a good sign. At least SR hinted that transfers are coming before 1.3. But, still, transfers really HAVE to be this month to stop the bleeding.

 

I think Bioware missed that window of a chance to gain new players. You have Diablo 3 coming out and MANY people will leave to play it. Then you will have Guild Wars 2 coming out in the summer and even more people will leave, even though its F2P people will be like "why pay 15$ a month for a mmo when i can play a good one for free"

 

D3 and Guild Wars 2 is a double whammy had Bioware released transfers/merges back in February when servers started to die and had they NOT screw pvpers by removing the ranked wz this game would have been in a much better shape.

[JeramieCrowe]

I think Bioware missed that window of a chance to gain new players. You have Diablo 3 coming out and MANY people will leave to play it. Then you will have Guild Wars 2 coming out in the summer and even more people will leave, even though its F2P people will be like "why pay 15$ a month for a mmo when i can play a good one for free"

 

D3 and Guild Wars 2 is a double whammy had Bioware released transfers/merges back in February when servers started to die and had they NOT screw pvpers by removing the ranked wz this game would have been in a much better shape.

 

People might unsub for that. Mainly due to time constraints. However, one must also consider the fact that most people unsub for other MMOs because they don't want to pay for two subs. With both D3 and GW2, that won't be a problem. I know many who plan to play both because it's still only one sub.

 

No, if people unsub to TOR it will be because of TOR. Not competition that isn't actually competition.

[JeramieCrowe]

What everyone needs to do is anyone on a dead server needs to send in a support ticket in game. No it probably wont get you transfered, But it might make them wake the hell up and get it going .

 

If nothing else the bog down of the CS will atleast let them know people are getting fed up. Theres more than just these forums to get thier attention. I say use the CS ingame maybe somone who gives a dam will finaly take notice

 

Oh, trust me, people are. Especially on Twitter and FB. Every other question is about transfers.

[Thondan]

People might unsub for that. Mainly due to time constraints. However, one must also consider the fact that most people unsub for other MMOs because they don't want to pay for two subs. With both D3 and GW2, that won't be a problem. I know many who plan to play both because it's still only one sub.

 

No, if people unsub to TOR it will be because of TOR. Not competition that isn't actually competition.

 

If it's not going to be about money, it's going to be about time. Aren't there many adult gamers that have very restricted schedules for playtime?

 

Why would they pay $15 for a game they aren't even playing?

[JeramieCrowe]

If it's not going to be about money, it's going to be about time. Aren't there many adult gamers that have very restricted schedules for playtime?

 

Why would they pay $15 for a game they aren't even playing?

 

I addressed this in the very post you quoted...

[Thondan]

Whoops. Didn't see that part.

[DarthVindictus]

I agree that they need to fix the "quality of life" stuff first to slow down losses but i dont think they need to change their buisness model (f2p) or wait for an expansion. if they can get people to stop leaving and start enjoying it before too many leave word of mouth will spread. everyone knows someone who plays a different game, all you need to do is fix the game and people will coem back, you dont need an expansion for that.

 

Word of mouth isn't going to be enough, not when people still won't see reason to leave their other game that probably has better mechanics, better pve and better pvp. It'll take something big and publicized to draw people. Then of course they actually have to have improved the state of the game to retain those they draw.

[DarthVindictus]

TOR is following the pattern of pretty much every MMO ever released including WoW. Surge at launch, dropoff afterward.

 

We're not out of that typical window yet. But we are close. And I will agree with you that if BioWare wants to enjoy a steadying or an atypical upward trend, they really REALLY have their work cut out for them.

 

And a 1.3 Q&A slated for May 25th is NOT a good sign... The fact that it's not even on PTS yet is not a good sign. At least SR hinted that transfers are coming before 1.3. But, still, transfers really HAVE to be this month to stop the bleeding.

 

There was no dropoff for WoW though, and earlier MMO's actually slowly increased, they didn't have a surge at the beginning. It's only POST-WOW MMO's that have had that issue, because MMO's went from a niche genre to a mainstream genre due to WoW, so now people anticipate MMO's.

 

Actually there's 2 somewhat largish MMO's that have had slightly different patterns post WoW, LotRO, and Aion. Aion due to the eastern market continued to grow (though in the west it died off similar to AoC/Warhammer), LotRO I'm not sure, though it still had a small market share regardless of it actually growing (though slowly) until sometime after the second expansion. Then subscriptions dropped, they went F2P, subscriptions more than doubled for a time.

[DarthVindictus]

I think Bioware missed that window of a chance to gain new players. You have Diablo 3 coming out and MANY people will leave to play it. Then you will have Guild Wars 2 coming out in the summer and even more people will leave, even though its F2P people will be like "why pay 15$ a month for a mmo when i can play a good one for free"

 

D3 and Guild Wars 2 is a double whammy had Bioware released transfers/merges back in February when servers started to die and had they NOT screw pvpers by removing the ranked wz this game would have been in a much better shape.

 

Originally I was gonna stay subbed here and play GW2 and this and maybe skip D3.. but this game ended up sucking as an MMO, and I have more friends that will play D3 than this, so, GW2/D3 it is, and my wallet will thank me for not paying subscriptions but still haveing lots of time consuming gameplay, though D3 won't keep me AS occupied as an MMO.. I still fired up Diablo II years after it was launched.

[JeramieCrowe]

There was no dropoff for WoW though, and earlier MMO's actually slowly increased, they didn't have a surge at the beginning. It's only POST-WOW MMO's that have had that issue, because MMO's went from a niche genre to a mainstream genre due to WoW, so now people anticipate MMO's.

 

I don't know why mmodata doesn't show the dropoff, probably because it occurred between the two dots, the the line connecting them skipped it, but I was there. There was a typical dropoff, especially because launch sucked so bad.

 

There was a mass exodus from SWG that lasted two months. Then there was a mass return because WoW was pretty much unplayable. Then there was a final mass exodus to WoW, helped along by the CU and NGE. Saw it from WoW's side, too.

 

Actually there's 2 somewhat largish MMO's that have had slightly different patterns post WoW, LotRO, and Aion. Aion due to the eastern market continued to grow (though in the west it died off similar to AoC/Warhammer), LotRO I'm not sure, though it still had a small market share regardless of it actually growing (though slowly) until sometime after the second expansion. Then subscriptions dropped, they went F2P, subscriptions more than doubled for a time.

 

"Typical" doesn't mean "all"...

Edited May 14, 2012 by JeramieCrowe

[JeramieCrowe]

Originally I was gonna stay subbed here and play GW2 and this and maybe skip D3.. but this game ended up sucking as an MMO, and I have more friends that will play D3 than this, so, GW2/D3 it is, and my wallet will thank me for not paying subscriptions but still haveing lots of time consuming gameplay, though D3 won't keep me AS occupied as an MMO.. I still fired up Diablo II years after it was launched.

 

I hope it's everything you dream of.

[DarthVindictus]

I hope it's everything you dream of.

 

I don't dream of Diablo 3 being anything more than a casual dungeon crawl with friends. That's what I anticipated from Diablo, Diablo II, and Diablo III, it's what I got in Diablo and Diablo II, and judging by the beta, it's what I'm going to get in Diablo III.