Malefactor Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Aside from the obvious that it's impossible to predict the future, numbers will in part depend on the Oceanic launch that's coming up very shortly, and how soon they can get into Asia (as reported in the last shareholder meeting, they are in talks to get into Asia). As more and more content gets added, bugs fixed and advertising ramps up (TV ad blitz's etc) it's likely to experience growth. My guess, 2 million+ (a lot more if they get into Asia within the next 6 months). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aluano Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 12 million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaskava Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I'll say 750k to 1 million. Guild Wars is just next on the hype train. I'm sure it'll fall flat on its face like every other overhyped MMORPG initially. I think a lot depends on how Bioware deals with all the extra servers now. If there were a magically way to consolidate many of them...have maybe 33% less servers I think the game would be healthier. Higher average populations = good for everyone (even if it meant being forced to move communities). I know I for one and finding it tougher to log into Kinrath Spider (hits standard during prime time, thats it). If not for the massive guild presence we still have, I'd have probably ditched the place by now. I think they need to get character transfers working soon....and then implement it cheaply. Thinking people will pay 20 bucks to move a character at this point is a pipe dream. Honestly EA should be doing this for a) free or b) really cheap in an attempt to maintain existing subs. I don't think GW2 will suffer as much as a P2P MMO with low sub numbers. Since you're buying the client, and MT's after that. I'm also of the opinion that that sort of business model is going to prevent the loss of subs that MoP or even Terra might. Though, I don't know what kind of payment system Terra is using. As for character transfers, I agree. They should be free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uziforyou Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 As the title mentions. This is a prediction thread. In your opinion guess the sub numbers 6 months from now. Based on your experience of the game so far. And compared to the upcoming games for the MMO genre. Also feel free to leave a comment as to why you predicted this number. Thank you. As for my thought a good 500k to 800k players overall. Not bad but not so good either. Might lose some players after Guild Wars 2. Again guys i am just curious to what other think about the current state of the game. This is not a troll post. Feel free to speak your mind but no personal attacks please. Right, it's not a troll post. You're simply curious about what the state of the game will be then. That's why you asked for comments to support people's predictions. Whatever, this is just a closet 'I've got an axe to grind and I'm looking for sympathizers' thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barracudastr Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Monday morning right now theres only 7 servers at standards the rest are light. The swiftsure has been steadily dropping as well. And it was the most populated either people are leaving it and rerolling another server or people are just tired of swtor its second month in lol. It went from having a que all the time, to just having a que on weekends, to having no que and only being very heavy, then to heavy, and now for most of the weekend it is standard maybe heavy for 3 hours then back to standard. I can see it on planets as well people just aren't there, even at end game. saturday night 7 people on voss..... 5 people on bel.... I dont want to be the doom and gloom type but thats a red flag that the game is dropping subs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
islander Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I don't think GW2 will suffer as much as a P2P MMO with low sub numbers. Since you're buying the client, and MT's after that. I'm also of the opinion that that sort of business model is going to prevent the loss of subs that MoP or even Terra might. Though, I don't know what kind of payment system Terra is using. As for character transfers, I agree. They should be free. It's a fair point in the sense that people don't think of MT's as "pay to play". Yet in many cases they end up 'paying' more then 15 bucks a month in MT's while they espouse the game as "FTP". Which is true but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HornedToad Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 ~500k or so. They'll lose most max levels but add new players to enjoy the story or as it expands to new regions. For me: lvl 1-49 was very very fun. lvl 50 is mindnumbingly boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evildestroyer Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 If patch 1.2 fails, 150-300k since players would be playing TERA or Guild Wars 2 im leaning towards GW2. If patch 1.2 is a success, 500k-700k If patch 1.2 is a success and Guild Wars 2 flops, 1mil-2mil If both patch 1.2 and GW2 fails.......people will quit mmos altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prochuvi Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 0?¿ not seriously its gonna be 200-300k rift is way better than swtor and only have 350k so swtor gonna have 200-300k star wars fanboys but 0 mmorpg players Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
islander Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Monday morning right now theres only 7 servers at standards the rest are light. The swiftsure has been steadily dropping as well. And it was the most populated either people are leaving it and rerolling another server or people are just tired of swtor its second month in lol. It went from having a que all the time, to just having a que on weekends, to having no que and only being very heavy, then to heavy, and now for most of the weekend it is standard maybe heavy for 3 hours then back to standard. I can see it on planets as well people just aren't there, even at end game. saturday night 7 people on voss..... 5 people on bel.... I dont want to be the doom and gloom type but thats a red flag that the game is dropping subs. As far as morning populations, you do realize a LOT of people were off from work/school in mid-late December. The better population gauge is the weeknight evenings, and weekend afternoons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barracudastr Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 As far as morning populations, you do realize a LOT of people were off from work/school in mid-late December. The better population gauge is the weeknight evenings, and weekend afternoons. Im not gauging based off launch month im talking about mid jan and the month of feb which is almost over. I did talk about weekends, and its been steadily dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malichae Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 150/250k maybe less if they carry on as they have so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zrinking Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 it won't be 2.5 million, I'm willing to stake my life savings on that. Bookmarked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icebaron Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 some people will love this game if Bioware broke into their house and slapped em around calling them names nightly. So I would say about 500k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holden_Dissent Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 (edited) I predict more than WoW has at the time. Since they only have about 3m (or less) currently, I'd say it's not too far fetched. Edited February 27, 2012 by Holden_Dissent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drewser Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 150/250k maybe less if they carry on as they have so far That is laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeonidasSith Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 The math is there yet no one wants to acknowledge it. With 1700 000 there might be only 30 players in each zone if evenly spread out ...which obviously there are not. There are not 1.7 million subscribers currently. Best guess is around 700k. Six months from now it will be about 400k. It would be <100k, but Star Wars + Bioware is a big draw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacma Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I predict more than WoW has at the time. Since they only have about 3m (or less) currently, I'd say it's not too far fetched. WoW has 10m+ subs at the moment. 3 million is what they lost mostly in Europe and America. It's been said that over 8m subs are in Asia but I have no idea how true that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drkwolfjj Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 We also need to remember that the WOW sub numbers are HIGHLY inflated, in the Asian market you pay to play in essence. So a WOW subscription model over there only averages out to a 1/month per active account (from their investor meeting), there is a lot of debate of how much there player base numbers are from Asia, from what I have read to 70-90% of there player base is just the Asian market. So, keep that in mind, having a smaller player base that pays 15 bucks a month is a lot more profitable then having 8 million people playing in Asia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunsoar Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 My sub is up in March. CE with 2 month sub. Good ridance to this game and it's community. It will take over a year to make this game a persistant, living breathing world unless of course they love their stale, static game. Wasted a year of my 'life' for this game (beta) and after feedback being tossed out and disregarded I just dont want to be part of the circus that is EA/the devs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnakeBites Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 400k-500k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nemeses Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 (edited) 25/30k EU maybe 85/120k USA Edited February 27, 2012 by Nemeses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Behn Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 My sub is up in March. CE with 2 month sub. Good ridance to this game and it's community. It will take over a year to make this game a persistant, living breathing world unless of course they love their stale, static game. Wasted a year of my 'life' for this game (beta) and after feedback being tossed out and disregarded I just dont want to be part of the circus that is EA/the devs. QFT! I am dragging my self to play this game because I begged my friends/guildmates to switch to this game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MasterKayote Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Probably about 10-15% less than it has now. Itll lose a lot of subs to TERA, and GW2 but I say most will come back soon after. I just dont see the game actually growing at this point. They need to really pull a miracle for it to get much bigger anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jontyld Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 I'd guess just short of 1 mil. I don't think the games doing nearly as bad as most forum posters seem to, and I think it'll pickup people during the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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