PlagaNerezza Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 (edited) I am 1 for 35 on champion tokens since 1.1.2. The account is Matty. Naddist Rebels. The 1 token was for a relic. That calculates into a return percentage of 2.8% If you have a 20% return ratio the odds of me rolling a 6 sided dice and the number 6 only coming up 1 time in 35 rolls is astronomically high. http://www.edcollins.com/backgammon/diceprob.htm Because you all don't seem to under the mechanics of rolling a number I'll say that every bag is a roll. You don't maximize or minimize the return ratio by have 5 bags in a persons inventory to open. You don't have additive probability. No different then rolling 3 dice does not net you a 50% chance of getting 1 of them to be a 6. However a sample size of 35 and a 2% return on the number 6 showing up is statistically speaking something you'd have to consider the worst luck in the world. http://propterhoc.wordpress.com/2007/03/30/flipping-our-coin/ However, The odds of anyone hitting 1 out of 20 in a row as I have done is 1/6 ^ 20 3,656,158,440,062,976 to 1 on a 20% drop ratio. So if you people don't understand basic mathmatics to figure out something is wrong take my C3P0 moment to go back to your code and look again. So either you have miss placed a decimal place in your code, but in manner of speaking am I that unlucky. So please. Go ahead and dispute that fact. 20 in a row without a drop on champion bags. The drop rate cannot be 20%. So if some moderater could be so kind to say ya know someone did some math and said we have a problem they might want to investigate. That is all. Edited February 17, 2012 by PlagaNerezza Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lerdoc Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 And what is the point of this thread? Champion tokens are bonus that is supposed to be a nice surprise. Champion commendations is the only thing you can expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayestes Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Where is it said that Champion bags have a 20% chance now? I know the BM Bags have 25%, but no where have I seen from a Dev that Champion Bags are 20% now. I've actually guessed it's around 5% based on my luck and others, but that's extremely anecdotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ergecrs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 your luck is better then mine im 0 for 39 on champion tokens lol so if I were you I wouldnt comlpain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aetou Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Yep, Champion Tokens are now very rare because they have been almost completely replaced with the slow-but-steady system. <5% for sure, I'd suggest around 2% seems to be the ballpark we're in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruuprect Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 0 for 40 on Champ bags since the patch, but I dont care as I get badges to buy the gear which is much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vindianajones Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 (edited) If you've opened 35 bags and one of them contained an item token instead of commendations, shouldn't you have 238 Champion commendations and over 500 Centurion commendations right now? What is this post about? They drastically lowered the chance of getting an item token in favor of 7 Champion commendations per bag. Who ever said it was supposed to be 20%? Where is this figure coming from? Edited February 17, 2012 by vindianajones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayestes Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Champion Commendations are what you get when you open a Champion Bag. Tokens are like getting a critical crafting success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proppa Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 0/34 and counting. I don't like the old system or the new system. I wish there was a server where I could attain the gear quicker if I put my efforts into PvP. Yes I could Warzone grind, but your talking atleast 10 warzones to get a bag. There are like 10+ Flashpoinst for PvE gear/commendations w/e, so give me more ways to get Champ gear please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlagaNerezza Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 I used 20% as its easier statistically to do relate to dice. I pointed out 20 as BM bag rates are similar to champion and I have seen post that indicate massive issues that the stated bioware numbers are not being delivered in the real world game. lets look at some really interesting dice facts from others. http://www.madandmoonly.com/doctormatt/mathematics/dice1.pdf On average, how many times must a 6-sided die be rolled until all sides appear at least once? What about for an n-sided die? To roll until every side of the die appears, we begin by rolling once. We then roll until a different side appears. Since there are 5 sides, this takes, on average, 1 5/6 = 6/5 rolls. Then we roll until a side different from the two already rolled appears. This requires, on average, 1 4/6 = 6/4 = 3/2 rolls. Continuing this process, and using the additive nature of expectation, we see that, on average, 14.7 So if you rolled 17 times with a D6 your in the sub 5% range of statistics of that event ever occurring without a reward. So if its 25% and you opened 17 BM bags without a drop you probably should email a csr and say the bags are bugged. The odds of you ever opening 38 bags in a row on a 20% rate is under 99.99%. So my Champ rate is to low by my math. The BM rates I have seen posted by users suggest if they are not liars, some percentages that don't add up to stated figures. 25% is taking away 2 sides of a dice. Meaning the 1/6 dropped to 1/4. I am actually being kind. You are probably at about an average of 10 to get a BM piece at 1/4 and 25 in a row being 99.99%. So if you opened 25 bm bags post 1.1.2 you have hit odds that of which people winning the lottery get only in reverse. So yea. Its a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
venjinze Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 (edited) 35 bags lol, nothing else needs to be said. you have a full set of pvp gear already. system makes much more sense then it did before, its actually EASIER to get PvP gear. I had 6 implants, 4 pairs of boots, 4 offhands and a bunch of relics pre-patch, a complete waste. quit whining about gear, you have enough to PvP and be competitive. in a couple more weeks you wont know what to do with all the extra commedations, i have over 400 champion commedations now, useless. Edited February 17, 2012 by venjinze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werdan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Don't worry, they are removing the daily quests for comms/tokens in 1.2 in favor of what seems to be a straight up commendation trading system (buy gear with warzone comms). Not much else has been said about it but it makes me wonder how different the pricing is going to be or if there will be other pre reqs for gear (ie Valor 40 for Centurion, 50 for Champion, etc). By the time it gets released you will probably be in full Battlemaster anyway as I honestly don't think it will be released until mid April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DestyOwn Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 (edited) 3 for 46 Bm commodations. Edited February 17, 2012 by DestyOwn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werdan Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 35 bags lol, nothing else needs to be said. you have a full set of pvp gear already. system makes much more sense then it did before, its actually EASIER to get PvP gear. I had 6 implants, 4 pairs of boots, 4 offhands and a bunch of relics pre-patch, a complete waste. quit whining about gear, you have enough to PvP and be competitive. in a couple more weeks you wont know what to do with all the extra commedations, i have over 400 champion commedations now, useless. Gear up your companions? I have 2 companions in nearly full champ gear and 1 with more BM gear than most players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlagaNerezza Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 35 bags lol, nothing else needs to be said. you have a full set of pvp gear already. system makes much more sense then it did before, its actually EASIER to get PvP gear. I had 6 implants, 4 pairs of boots, 4 offhands and a bunch of relics pre-patch, a complete waste. quit whining about gear, you have enough to PvP and be competitive. in a couple more weeks you wont know what to do with all the extra commedations, i have over 400 champion commedations now, useless. I have 4 champion pieces all other centurion. I am not whining. I am pointing out that if you develop something and say something like you can expect x and than do X and the results are y you have a right to point out that they are not delivering on there stated variables and conditions. If you have a problem with that its on you. I wouldn't disagree its more fair to have a system which doesn't reward you things that don't work. I would argue that the drop percentage does matter. Given the intended to introduce a more fair system. The net result could be either way, but you should never see a 1/25 bm bag drop ratio in game. If you do something is not working. But ya, I'll keep posting if I think theirs legitimate issues. Sorry it bothers you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ayestes Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 (edited) If you get struck by lightning something isn't working either. Probability is probability. You will get extreme cases. The Champion Bag Token chance is significantly lower then the BM Token chance. Of course, you have people that get 8 of 10 BM tokens from BM Bags and then people that are 0 of 20. This is to be expected. It doesn't mean it's broken unless you have the data among a large sample size that shows an inconsistency. Edited February 17, 2012 by Ayestes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcgregorya Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Champion token drops are 5% (1 in 20). Champion commendations are static. System works fine as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlagaNerezza Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 If you get struck by lightning something isn't working either. Probability is probability. You will get extreme cases. The Champion Bag Token chance is significantly lower then the BM Token chance. Of course, you have people that get 8 of 10 BM tokens from BM Bags and then people that are 0 of 20. This is to be expected. It doesn't mean it's broken unless you have the data among a large sample size that shows an inconsistency. You don't need a large sample. You need a 40 bag sample. If 40 BM bags are opened and you don't get a token the stastically probability of that event occurring are in the realm of impossible if the drop ratio is 25%. Its not hyperbol. You don't understand probability of a .01 percent chance of something occurring. If it happens to you its more likely the system is broken and not you are unlucky. That is what I am saying. I opened 2 more champ bags and no comms. I am saying that someone needs to review the code. Not that I agree or disagree the system is fair. I don't think its working as intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PlagaNerezza Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 Champion token drops are 5% (1 in 20). Champion commendations are static. System works fine as is. I am not seeing a 1 in 20 roll statistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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