Patch, who cares?

[Jalden]

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/EA

 

While being relatively stable from august until release, thanks to the build-up of their flagship product SWTOR, the post-release spike lasted only days, until EA stock started dropping rapidly.

 

Brean Murray Carret & Co analysts have already confirmed sales to be lower than expected, and have since then adjusted their assumptions downward. Todd Mitchell, the one involved, is hardly a rookie in analyzing video games and stock fluctuations.

 

Oh, ofcourse SWTOR is only one part of the portfolio, but it's their most important asset and one would have expected a different picture to emerge if the game would have been the undeniable success you guys think it is.

 

Too many fans are plugging their ears. There's nothing wrong with being critical, you can still like the game despite that. I still love it, but I see some glaring mishaps. Most of them due to poor communication.

 

I'm a strategic planner at an advertising agency, and have been a market researcher the years after I've graduated. I've come to realize how important communication is in the gaming industry, how crucial it is in shaping perception. Bioware can do better. They might be new to the specific MMO niche, but they are a solid company. I keep faith.

 

Oh, and while I agree initial sales matter less than customer retention, you can't keep what you don't have.

 

But initial sales have been stellar. Retention is where the challenge will be.

 

Is this your proof of decreasing market share? If you really are a market researcher you should know that stock value reflect exception of future profit (at its best) and not market share.

 

We know the game has been growing steadily since launch. We do not know if it will generate the expected profit.

[Sirspongy]

Yes, but I have no idea how hard it is to integrate in to the current engine structure. I have no idea what BioWare already has planned for current issues. I do not know what language their code is even in. See what I'm saying? Your average programmer does not know what goes in to something they have not touched. It does not take an expert programmer to figure that out.

 

But it gives you an appreciation for what they have to do to fix things, no doubt.

 

I am sure I will have the kiddies make fun of me for saying this but I started my Bachelors in game development but changed to networking administration about 1/4 through because I really started to hate the math and boring nature of programming. The first 5 or 6 classes gave me the basic understanding of how a game is developed from the ground up. I know I am just another person saying "I am a developer," even though I am not really, but I do recognize how much work building and bug fixing a regular, non-mmo game is so I tend to give the developers the benefit of the doubt.

[Dekadez]

Maybe they changed their mind when they discovered a lot of people do not want combat logs at all. This is why they tell us so little about what is planned for the game. People like you reads it like a binding promise.

 

Or perhaps it's because they don't know what they have planned? I'll make a bold statement: They don't know what the community wants, ergo they don't know what to implement, because they don't communicate.

 

The Austin summit is a step in the right direction, but they will need something at a larger scale than this.

 

You keep MMO customers by providing the service they want, by serving the preferences of the majority of players. They need to find out what most of us want to prevent this great game turning into the next LOTRO: A themed niche. They can't afford that.

[Scar]

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/EA

 

While being relatively stable from august until release, thanks to the build-up of their flagship product SWTOR, the post-release spike lasted only days, until EA stock started dropping rapidly.

 

Brean Murray Carret & Co analysts have already confirmed sales to be lower than expected, and have since then adjusted their assumptions downward. Todd Mitchell, the one involved, is hardly a rookie in analyzing video games and stock fluctuations.

 

Oh, ofcourse SWTOR is only one part of the portfolio, but it's their most important asset and one would have expected a different picture to emerge if the game would have been the undeniable success you guys think it is.

 

Too many fans are plugging their ears. There's nothing wrong with being critical, you can still like the game despite that. I still love it, but I see some glaring mishaps. Most of them due to poor communication.

 

I'm a strategic planner at an advertising agency, and have been a market researcher the years after I've graduated. I've come to realize how important communication is in the gaming industry, how crucial it is in shaping perception. Bioware can do better. They might be new to the specific MMO niche, but they are a solid company. I keep faith.

 

I don't have reason to doubt anything you said, but that graph is slightly different than the picture you paint.

 

You said steady from Aug to release. That graph shows incline from Aug to November 3rd. At that point it starts it's decline. Not at 12/20/11. There is actually a rebound on 12/19/11 from the 11/3/11 downward trend, that we would probably attribute to the release. Peaking at 1/5/12 (which is two weeks post release of upward trending, not one day like you said). Then a drop on 1/13/12. Followed by a precipitous drop on the 1/17/12. Rebounding again on the day of the press conference. Followed by steady .3 a day decline since.

[gurugeorge]

First let me just say as a disclaimer im not a BW hater, and im not here to hate on the game just to give my opinions. That said...

 

Please take the time to read the note stickied on these forums, about how they go about patching and bug fixing, their rationales and priorities.

[Chewpaco]

Well done ignoring my last post. You're only exposing yourself as a fanboy with a lack of an opinion of his own, regurgitating whatever anyone else on these boards type, so you can cope with the cognitive dissonance of having bought a product you had such high hopes and expectations for, which only got delivered in part.

 

I am not dissapointed by SWTOR. In fact - I think it is a nice departure from the macro/meter/add-on infested market that has been invaded by XBOX - Q -Babies.

 

I would go as far to say that SWTOR - is EXACTLY what I was looking for. It is everything WoW, RIFT is not.

[Dekadez]

 

Is this your proof of decreasing market share? If you really are a market researcher you should know that stock value reflect exception of future profit (at its best) and not market share.

 

And you don't think market share predicts future profit margins? If market share drops, stocks will drop eventually. It's a downward spiral.

[Dekadez]

I don't have reason to doubt anything you said, but that graph is slightly different than the picture you paint.

 

You said steady from Aug to release. That graph shows incline from Aug to November 3rd. At that point it starts it's decline. Not at 12/20/11. There is actually a rebound on 12/19/11 from the 11/3/11 downward trend, that we would probably attribute to the release. Peaking at 1/5/12 (which is two weeks post release of upward trending, not one day like you said). Then a drop on 1/13/12. Followed by a precipitous drop on the 1/17/12. Rebounding again on the day of the press conference. Followed by steady .3 a day decline since.

 

I stand corrected. I have not studied the graph in detail, and you are correct in your assessment.

[Jalden]

And you don't think market share predicts future profit margins? If market share drops, stocks will drop eventually. It's a downward spiral.

 

Only in that higher is better and lower is worse. SWTOR has increased in market share ever since launch. That is as much a fact as we can ever get. But the game cost an extreme amount of money and will need to retain a lot of customers over a long time to make the expected profit. The current market share and growth may still be to low compared to estimates. The bets are up.

 

Do you honestly not know this?

[Jalden]

And you don't think market share predicts future profit margins? If market share drops, stocks will drop eventually. It's a downward spiral.

 

And how do falling stock prices make less people play SWTOR? Are you really a market researcher?

[Chewpaco]

And you don't think market share predicts future profit margins? If market share drops, stocks will drop eventually. It's a downward spiral.

 

 

 

I don't think anyone would argue that point. Where I get confused in your argument is the conclusion you make that the reason for market share drop can be directly attributed to lack of features that other games have. That is quite frankly an impossible conclusion to make on a game that has only been out for 1.5 months.

[Mxconway]

But initial sales have been stellar. Retention is where the challenge will be.

 

Is this your proof of decreasing market share? If you really are a market researcher you should know that stock value reflect exception of future profit (at its best) and not market share.

 

We know the game has been growing steadily since launch. We do not know if it will generate the expected profit.

 

I'm curious where you got the last bit.

[Jett-Rinn]

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/EA

 

While being relatively stable from august until release, thanks to the build-up of their flagship product SWTOR, the post-release spike lasted only days, until EA stock started dropping rapidly.

 

Brean Murray Carret & Co analysts have already confirmed sales to be lower than expected, and have since then adjusted their assumptions downward. Todd Mitchell, the one involved, is hardly a rookie in analyzing video games and stock fluctuations.

 

Oh, ofcourse SWTOR is only one part of the portfolio, but it's their most important asset and one would have expected a different picture to emerge if the game would have been the undeniable success you guys think it is.

 

Too many fans are plugging their ears. There's nothing wrong with being critical, you can still like the game despite that. I still love it, but I see some glaring mishaps. Most of them due to poor communication.

 

I'm a strategic planner at an advertising agency, and have been a market researcher the years after I've graduated. I've come to realize how important communication is in the gaming industry, how crucial it is in shaping perception. Bioware can do better. They might be new to the specific MMO niche, but they are a solid company. I keep faith.

 

Oh, and while I agree initial sales matter less than customer retention, you can't keep what you don't have.

Are the analysts having unrealistic expectations? Possibly. But don't forget the gargantuan amount of costs EA/Bioware has made in order to develop, produce and market this game. They need to reach high-target goals in order to get a proper ROE.

 

 

Ill see you that and raise you this

 

http://massively.joystiq.com/2012/01/20/the-force-is-with-swtor-ea-stock-bounces-back-budget-revealed/

 

It seems like everyone is obsessed with the exact amount of money EA spent creating its most expensive title ever, but the Los Angeles Times may have a final number to end the discussion: Apparently, Star Wars: The Old Republic cost $200 million. Other interesting details from the Times' investigation into what it calls a "galactic gamble" include the fact that it was made by 800 people on four continents with an additional 1,000 voice actors (doing three languages) handling 4,000 characters.

 

The project was such a massive undertaking that BioWare co-founder Greg Zeschuk likened it to "teaching elephants to do ballet." One of the interesting details of this behind-the-scenes expose is that BioWare said that certain movies and TV miniseries influenced class storylines, such as Big Trouble in Little China for the Smuggler and Band of Brothers for the Trooper.

 

There's also some good news following yesterday's word of EA's stock hit. MarketWatch reports that several brokers have defended the title, resulting in a 2% bounce back in EA's stock. As part of that, a Pacific Crest analyst raised his predictions of quarter sales for SWTOR from 1.5 to 2.2 million, with 800,000 subscribers. Another analyst claims that over two million units of SWTOR have been sold since launch with an expectation that 75% to 90% of players will stay on as paid subscribers following the first free month.

 

 

Also Marketwatch isn't empirical evidence that less people are playing now but... nice try.

Edited February 7, 2012 by Jett-Rinn

[Chewpaco]

Ill see you that and raise you this

 

http://massively.joystiq.com/2012/01/20/the-force-is-with-swtor-ea-stock-bounces-back-budget-revealed/

 

It seems like everyone is obsessed with the exact amount of money EA spent creating its most expensive title ever, but the Los Angeles Times may have a final number to end the discussion: Apparently, Star Wars: The Old Republic cost $200 million. Other interesting details from the Times' investigation into what it calls a "galactic gamble" include the fact that it was made by 800 people on four continents with an additional 1,000 voice actors (doing three languages) handling 4,000 characters.

 

The project was such a massive undertaking that BioWare co-founder Greg Zeschuk likened it to "teaching elephants to do ballet." One of the interesting details of this behind-the-scenes expose is that BioWare said that certain movies and TV miniseries influenced class storylines, such as Big Trouble in Little China for the Smuggler and Band of Brothers for the Trooper.

 

There's also some good news following yesterday's word of EA's stock hit. MarketWatch reports that several brokers have defended the title, resulting in a 2% bounce back in EA's stock. As part of that, a Pacific Crest analyst raised his predictions of quarter sales for SWTOR from 1.5 to 2.2 million, with 800,000 subscribers. Another analyst claims that over two million units of SWTOR have been sold since launch with an expectation that 75% to 90% of players will stay on as paid subscribers following the first free month.

 

 

Also Marketwatch isn't empirical evidence that less people are playing now but... nice try.

 

So much for the lack of features that other games currently have causing this game to be a failure and lose money.

 

Well done sir

[Jett-Rinn]

So much for the lack of features that other games currently have causing this game to be a failure and lose money.

 

Well done sir

 

Yeah I owe it all to clean living and eating my Wheaties.

[PeacefulViolence]

First let me just say as a disclaimer im not a BW hater, and im not here to hate on the game just to give my opinions. That said...

 

There really appears to be a serious disconnect between the community and the devs, as far as whats a priority in this game, lets take a look at this latest patch

 

Theres a fix that changes the animations for hydraulic overides and hold the line to make it more noticable, thats great maybe 1 - 10 percent of your population uses that ability and i can certainly see why its fixed, meanwhile we still wait for the combat log to even make it to the test server, which would effect 100% of your population. im not saying that fixing the animation is a bad thing but really? thats a priority?

 

A fix to the legacy system so that it requires more exp after level 20 to gain levels. Thats good i guess, but the legacy system isnt even in the game, so who cares. you have no macros, no ui flexibilty at all, (i have seen the ui video) and you havent put your ui changes even on the test server yet and you patching legacy exp past level 20? this litteraly doesnt do anything for anyone as the legacy system isnt even in the game, or on the test server.

 

its just extremly frustrating to every week get these patches that fix little or nothing while MAJOR issues dont even make it to the test server to even start the evaluation process.

as a beta tester for a year, i can say that theres about 4 or 5 issues that about 90% of the population has been asking for fixes to since a year ago.

 

Targeting

Legacy (actually put into the game)

Combat logs

UI/Macro/addons/anything?

 

I mean its been a year since I was invited to the beta test for this game i can remeber when i started testing how bad tab targeting was, how frustrating it was not to have a combat log, how excited i was about the legacy system, and how dissapointed i was about the lacke of UI support. I just kept telling my self its beta, this stuff will all be worked out. Its a year later im still waiting.

 

Please get some of these issues at least to the test server so that we the community can know that were close to some kind of resolution, please stop patching things just so you can add patch notes, please stop trying to add content to your game when it doesnt have the basic ground work in place to allow you to enjoy it.

 

Thanks

 

Lack of combat log really makes me feel sad... I am a huge fan of number crunching and overall it's just good to know WHAT killed you when you are in certain situations.

[Imgoose]

Combat log is not a big fix its a basic requirement in 2012.

 

That may be true for you however a very small portion of the actually swtor community use this forum and a number even smaller than that actually feel the need for the combat log. Combat logs are nice for flashpoints and end game raiders but it is in no way a requirement. for the largest portion of the player base. It obviously was something the devs thought the game could launch without and they were probably right they did not expect people to race to 50 and need one that quickly.

[eadnams]

They have been adding new content..... and they havent been fixing key issues that was the point of this thread.

 

As someone who makes content(and knows some BW content creators), but doesn't code... I wouldn't WANT/ASK writers/scripters/artists to code for the game. Different jobs, different skills.

Edited February 7, 2012 by eadnams

[Jalden]

I'm curious where you got the last bit.

 

http://www.darthhater.com/articles/swtor-news/19915-electronic-arts-q3-fy12-earnings-call

 

"In summary: we nailed the launch. Adoption and daily usage among core MMO users are trending very favorably. More people are buying the game and subscribing. More content is on the way."

 

Note that I make no prediction about the future success of the game. Only time will tell. Selling a lot of copies the months after launch is important, but long term retention is the key to real success.

Edited February 7, 2012 by Jalden

[Sharkvadar]

There really appears to be a serious disconnect between the tiny portion of the community that spends all their time on the forums screaming and whining and crying and complaining bitterly and inconsistently and the devs...

 

FIFY.

 

Wow some ppl have really small mind!!!! Guys like this is why bioware is getting away with doing nothing useful to fix game.

 

Still waiting for a camera fix. So i dont have to scroll out every freakin second.

[Jett-Rinn]

Wow some ppl have really small mind!!!! Guys like this is why bioware is getting away with doing nothing useful to fix game.

 

Still waiting for a camera fix. So i dont have to scroll out every freakin second.

 

Camera seems fine to me dude...whats your beef?

Edited February 7, 2012 by Jett-Rinn

[Chewpaco]

That may be true for you however a very small portion of the actually swtor community use this forum and a number even smaller than that actually feel the need for the combat log. Combat logs are nice for flashpoints and end game raiders but it is in no way a requirement. for the largest portion of the player base. It obviously was something the devs thought the game could launch without and they were probably right they did not expect people to race to 50 and need one that quickly.

 

The Devs would be naive to not think there would be a section of the player base racing to 50.

 

That said - it has nothing to do with whether or not a combat log is needed. Personally I don't see the need for one.

 

The only evidence you need - are you dead or alive after your encounter? If you are dead, try again. Pay close attention to the abilities a mob is using during combat.

 

Example: I was doing my Jedi Consular class quest at level 33 - Finally I get to face Lord Vivicar. After 33 levels of sheilding Jedi Masters, infected by this scumbags plague - he is going to get his.

 

Wrong. He one shots me 3 times in a row. I was like ***, how is this happening? I go to look in the "Combat Log" to see what is killing me. OMG - no combat log! I start the fight again. This time I notice a 5 second cast timer he has going like every 15 seconds. That's what was one shotting me. I make sure I interrupt this ability every time and voila - I win.

 

Point is: You don't need scripted logs to tell you why you succeed or fail. All the information is available via animations, cast bars, and auditory clues. Combat logs - it's like to a crossword puzzle with the answer sheet in front of you.

[eadnams]

The Devs would be naive to not think there would be a section of the player base racing to 50.

 

That said - it has nothing to do with whether or not a combat log is needed. Personally I don't see the need for one.

 

The only evidence you need - are you dead or alive after your encounter? If you are dead, try again. Pay close attention to the abilities a mob is using during combat.

 

Example: I was doing my Jedi Consular class quest at level 33 - Finally I get to face Lord Vivicar. After 33 levels of sheilding Jedi Masters, infected by this scumbags plague - he is going to get his.

 

Wrong. He one shots me 3 times in a row. I was like ***, how is this happening? I go to look in the "Combat Log" to see what is killing me. OMG - no combat log! I start the fight again. This time I notice a 5 second cast timer he has going like every 15 seconds. That's what was one shotting me. I make sure I interrupt this ability every time and voila - I win.

 

Point is: You don't need scripted logs to tell you why you succeed or fail. All the information is available via animations, cast bars, and auditory clues. Combat logs - it's like to a crossword puzzle with the answer sheet in front of you.

 

Excellent point.

[Ozzone]

Lack of combat log really makes me feel sad... I am a huge fan of number crunching and overall it's just good to know WHAT killed you when you are in certain situations.

 

I suspect the reason a lot of people are against it is that it's more than just a means for you to see what dmg you are taking. Many guilds use it as a rule to gauge performance for raids. That's a double-edged sword. One side is that if a player is putting out low dps or healing, they are hurting the raid. The other side is that good players are not asked to go to raids because they aren't maximizing their damage/healing even if they are contributing a lot to the overall raid.

 

Too many people put too much emphasize in the numbers. Example is seeing people brag about their huttball dmg or healing and yet their team still loses. I've been in many WZ matches and see players ignoring the ball carrier and focusing on just seeing how much damage they can put out.

[Commomp]

Not everybody in the game has the same problems with what you have and some of us actually like the game as it is right now. Just be patient, people like you will get what you want. The game hasn't been out for even a year yet, and stuff your asking for is major programing and will probably take nearly a year to implement.